uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.","Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.",10.1073/pnas.1615922114,"March 21, 2017",12,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",E2285-E2292,"Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity",114,2017,21170,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114
/reference/c5dbde1e-e229-4832-8587-e6ec2ed22e94,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5dbde1e-e229-4832-8587-e6ec2ed22e94,c5dbde1e-e229-4832-8587-e6ec2ed22e94,"Development of extension and outreach that effectively engage farmers in climate change adaptation and/or mitigation activities can be informed by an improved understanding of farmers' perspectives on climate change and related impacts. This research employed latent class analysis (LCA) to analyze data from a survey of 4,778 farmers from 11 US Corn Belt states. The research focused on two related research questions: (1) to what degree do farmers differ on key measures of beliefs about climate change, experience with extreme weather, perceived risks to agriculture, efficacy, and level of support for public and private adaptive and mitigative action; and (2) are there potential areas of common ground among farmers? Results indicate that farmers have highly heterogeneous perspectives, and six distinct classes of farmers are identified. We label these as the following: the concerned (14%), the uneasy (25%), the uncertain (25%), the unconcerned (13%), the confident (18%), and the detached (5%). These groups of farmers differ primarily in terms of beliefs about climate change, the degree to which they had experienced extreme weather, and risk perceptions. Despite substantial differences on these variables, areas of similarity were discerned on variables measuring farmers' (1) confidence that they will be able to deal with increases in weather variability and (2) support for public and private efforts to help farmers adapt to increased weather variability. These results can inform segmented approaches to outreach that target subpopulations of farmers as well as broader engagement strategies that would reach wider populations. Further, findings suggest that strategies with specific reference to climate change might be most effective in engaging the subpopulations of farmers who believe that climate change is occurring and a threat, but that use of less charged terms such as weather variability would likely be more effective with a broader range of farmers. Outreach efforts that (1) appeal to farmers' problem solving capacity and (2) employ terms such as “weather variability” instead of more charged terms such as “climate change” are more likely to be effective with a wider farmer audience.","Arbuckle, J.G.; Hobbs, J.; Loy, A.; Morton, L.W.; Prokopy, L.S.; Tyndall, J.",10.2489/jswc.69.6.505,"November 1, 2014",6,"Journal of Soil and Water Conservation",505-516,"Understanding Corn Belt farmer perspectives on climate change to inform engagement strategies for adaptation and mitigation",69,2014,26552,c5dbde1e-e229-4832-8587-e6ec2ed22e94,"Journal Article",/article/10.2489/jswc.69.6.505
/reference/c65ba7e2-12f7-4a02-82c1-622c0aeb8711,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c65ba7e2-12f7-4a02-82c1-622c0aeb8711,c65ba7e2-12f7-4a02-82c1-622c0aeb8711,,"Cloud, Harold A.; Morey, R. Vance",,,,,,"Management of stored grain with aeration",,2017,21254,c65ba7e2-12f7-4a02-82c1-622c0aeb8711,"Web Page",/webpage/e89bc8e2-7c32-41a2-8d09-65a2203d6b2f
/reference/c69f166d-6658-44f5-82dd-16e8130500ab,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c69f166d-6658-44f5-82dd-16e8130500ab,c69f166d-6658-44f5-82dd-16e8130500ab,,"Cleveland,",,,,,57,"The Cleveland Tree Plan",,2015,21299,c69f166d-6658-44f5-82dd-16e8130500ab,Report,/report/cleveland-tree-plan
/reference/c7d9e476-f293-40b4-99aa-e0fd007869d4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c7d9e476-f293-40b4-99aa-e0fd007869d4,c7d9e476-f293-40b4-99aa-e0fd007869d4,"Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.","Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Field, C. B.",10.1126/science.1237123,"Aug 2",6145,Science,486-92,"Changes in ecologically critical terrestrial climate conditions",341,2013,4324,c7d9e476-f293-40b4-99aa-e0fd007869d4,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.1237123
/reference/c9240a66-85a7-430d-82a0-bc895f35d143,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9240a66-85a7-430d-82a0-bc895f35d143,c9240a66-85a7-430d-82a0-bc895f35d143,,"Magee, Madeline R.; Wu, Chin H.",10.5194/hess-21-6253-2017,,12,"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",6253-6274,"Response of water temperatures and stratification to changing climate in three lakes with different morphometry",21,2017,26594,c9240a66-85a7-430d-82a0-bc895f35d143,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/hess-21-6253-2017
/reference/c94e7da1-3648-49d7-8dc2-6ca97ec26738,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c94e7da1-3648-49d7-8dc2-6ca97ec26738,c94e7da1-3648-49d7-8dc2-6ca97ec26738,"We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) to help inform potential adaptation actions in response to a changing climate. EVAA combines multiple quantitative models and expert elicitation from scientists and land managers. In each of eight assessment areas, a panel of local experts determined potential vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change over the next century using EVAA. Vulnerability and uncertainty ratings for forest community types in each assessment area were developed. The vulnerability of individual forest types to climate change varied by region due to regional differences in how climate change is expected to affect system drivers, stressors, and dominant species and the capacity of a forest community to adapt. This assessment process is a straightforward and flexible approach to addressing the key components of vulnerability in a collaborative setting and can easily be applied to a range of forest ecosystems at local to regional scales.<br></br> <b>Management and Policy Implications</b> Forest managers can use vulnerability assessments to help understand which species and ecosystems may be at greatest risk in a changing climate. Vulnerability assessments explain what systems are the most (and least) vulnerable, and, more important, why they are vulnerable. We developed the ecosystem vulnerability assessment approach (EVAA) for forest managers and scientists to collaboratively assess forest ecosystem vulnerability. We applied EVAA to eight regions in the Midwest and Northeast totaling 252 million acres. Although we have applied EVAA at the ecoregional scale, it is flexible enough to be used at larger or smaller scales, depending on the needs of managers. Results from assessments using EVAA have been successfully applied to forest management decisions across the Midwest and Northeast by nongovernmental, private, and government forest managers. How this information is applied depends on the specific goals and objectives of different places and ownerships.","Brandt, Leslie A.; Butler, Patricia R.; Handler, Stephen D.; Janowiak, Maria K.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Christopher W.",10.5849/jof.15-147,//,3,"Journal of Forestry",212-221,"Integrating science and management to assess forest ecosystem vulnerability to climate change",115,2017,21240,c94e7da1-3648-49d7-8dc2-6ca97ec26738,"Journal Article",/article/10.5849/jof.15-147
/reference/c984f123-572c-4860-8068-254224730887,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c984f123-572c-4860-8068-254224730887,c984f123-572c-4860-8068-254224730887,,"Herb, William R.; Johnson, Lucinda B.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Stefan, Heinz G.",10.1139/cjfas-2013-0535,2014/09/01,9,"Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences",1334-1348,"Projecting cold-water fish habitat in lakes of the glacial lakes region under changing land use and climate regimes",71,2014,26572,c984f123-572c-4860-8068-254224730887,"Journal Article",/article/10.1139/cjfas-2013-0535
/reference/c9d0a7e9-2bba-48cb-bd53-9e8c4209976d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9d0a7e9-2bba-48cb-bd53-9e8c4209976d,c9d0a7e9-2bba-48cb-bd53-9e8c4209976d,,"Tomer, Mark D.; Schilling, Keith E.",10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.029,2009/09/30/,1,"Journal of Hydrology",24-33,"A simple approach to distinguish land-use and climate-change effects on watershed hydrology",376,2009,26615,c9d0a7e9-2bba-48cb-bd53-9e8c4209976d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.029
/reference/c9ef5059-729c-4701-ad9a-da15255bd5ca,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c9ef5059-729c-4701-ad9a-da15255bd5ca,c9ef5059-729c-4701-ad9a-da15255bd5ca,"The development of climate change policy in cities has been closely tied to the efforts of particular individuals, policy entrepreneurs. However, there is still much we do not know about the conditions underlying the emergence and spread of policy entrepreneurship both generally and in support of climate change policies specifically. In this paper, we shed light on these issues using data from 371 mid-sized cities throughout the Great Lakes region of the USA. Building upon scholarship from the public choice literature, we explore the role that fragmentation, that is, the number of independent but connected governmental units both within the city itself as well as in the city’s regional metropolitan or micropolitan area play in explaining the emergence of climate entrepreneurship. We show that not only does fragmentation at both of these levels help predict the emergence of climate change entrepreneurs in individual cities, but also exchanges between these levels could drive the rapid development of policy entrepreneurship and related policy innovations throughout urban systems.","Kalafatis, Scott E.; Lemos, Maria Carmen",10.1007/s10113-017-1154-0,"August 01",6,"Regional Environmental Change",1791-1799,"The emergence of climate change policy entrepreneurs in urban regions",17,2017,21323,c9ef5059-729c-4701-ad9a-da15255bd5ca,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10113-017-1154-0
/reference/ca4947dc-278d-4b27-9c86-5a6a442575dc,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca4947dc-278d-4b27-9c86-5a6a442575dc,ca4947dc-278d-4b27-9c86-5a6a442575dc,,"De Lucia, M.; Assennato, D.",,,,,,"Agricultural engineering in development: Post-harvest operations and management of foodgrains",,1994,21255,ca4947dc-278d-4b27-9c86-5a6a442575dc,Report,/report/agricultural-engineering-development-post-harvest-operations-management-foodgrains
/reference/cad15039-4add-470a-bac2-adeb08e201c4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cad15039-4add-470a-bac2-adeb08e201c4,cad15039-4add-470a-bac2-adeb08e201c4,,"JOC ,",,,,"Journal of Commerce",,"High Water Forces Upper Mississippi River Closure","04 Jun",2013,21303,cad15039-4add-470a-bac2-adeb08e201c4,"Journal Article",/article/high-water-forces-upper-mississippi-river-closure
/reference/cae103f0-9122-4dd7-b609-8e6ec0c1ceff,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cae103f0-9122-4dd7-b609-8e6ec0c1ceff,cae103f0-9122-4dd7-b609-8e6ec0c1ceff,"There is an increasing demand for climate science that decision-makers can readily use to address issues created by climate variability and climate change. To be usable, the science must be relevant to their context and the complex management challenges they face and credible and legitimate in their eyes. The literature on usable science provides guiding principles for its development, which indicate that climate scientists who want to participate in the process need skills in addition to their traditional disciplinary training to facilitate communicating, interacting, and developing and sustaining relationships with stakeholders outside their disciplines. However, the literature does not address questions about what specific skills are needed and how to provide climate scientists with these skills. To address these questions, this article presents insights from interviews with highly experienced and respected ""first generation” climate science integrators from across the United States. The term “climate science integrator” is used to refer to climate scientists who specialize in helping decision-makers to integrate the best available climate science into their decision-making processes. The cadre of scientists who participated in the research has largely developed their methods for working successfully with stakeholders without formal training but often with the guidance of a mentor. Their collective wisdom illuminates the kinds of skills needed to be a successful science integrator and provides mentoring for aspiring science integrators. It also suggests the types of training that would cultivate these skills and indicates ways to change academic training and institutions to better encourage the next generation and to support this kind of work.","Brugger, Julie; Alison Meadow; Alexandra Horangic",10.1175/bams-d-14-00289.1,,3,"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",355-365,"Lessons from first-generation climate science integrators",97,2016,26557,cae103f0-9122-4dd7-b609-8e6ec0c1ceff,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/bams-d-14-00289.1
/reference/cc425aea-53c5-4bce-a66d-a62212048633,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cc425aea-53c5-4bce-a66d-a62212048633,cc425aea-53c5-4bce-a66d-a62212048633,,"Prokopy, Linda Stalker; Carlton, J. Stuart; Haigh, Tonya; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Mase, Amber Saylor; Widhalm, Melissa",10.1016/j.crm.2016.10.004,2017/01/01/,,"Climate Risk Management",1-7,"Useful to usable: Developing usable climate science for agriculture",15,2017,26626,cc425aea-53c5-4bce-a66d-a62212048633,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.crm.2016.10.004
/reference/cf5cd564-9f71-4025-93e5-9407832bd93e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cf5cd564-9f71-4025-93e5-9407832bd93e,cf5cd564-9f71-4025-93e5-9407832bd93e,"Prairie strips are a new conservation technology designed to alleviate biodiversity loss and environmental damage associated with row-crop agriculture. Results from a multiyear, catchment-scale experiment comparing corn and soybean fields with and without prairie vegetation indicated prairie strips raised pollinator and bird abundance, decreased water runoff, and increased soil and nutrient retention. These benefits accrued at levels disproportionately greater than the land area occupied by prairie strips. Social surveys revealed demand among both farm and nonfarm populations for the outcomes prairie strips produced. We estimated prairie strips could be used to improve biodiversity and ecosystem services across 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa and a large portion of the 69 million ha under similar management in the United States.Loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services from agricultural lands remain important challenges in the United States despite decades of spending on natural resource management. To date, conservation investment has emphasized engineering practices or vegetative strategies centered on monocultural plantings of nonnative plants, largely excluding native species from cropland. In a catchment-scale experiment, we quantified the multiple effects of integrating strips of native prairie species amid corn and soybean crops, with prairie strips arranged to arrest run-off on slopes. Replacing 10% of cropland with prairie strips increased biodiversity and ecosystem services with minimal impacts on crop production. Compared with catchments containing only crops, integrating prairie strips into cropland led to greater catchment-level insect taxa richness (2.6-fold), pollinator abundance (3.5-fold), native bird species richness (2.1-fold), and abundance of bird species of greatest conservation need (2.1-fold). Use of prairie strips also reduced total water runoff from catchments by 37%, resulting in retention of 20 times more soil and 4.3 times more phosphorus. Corn and soybean yields for catchments with prairie strips decreased only by the amount of the area taken out of crop production. Social survey results indicated demand among both farming and nonfarming populations for the environmental outcomes produced by prairie strips. If federal and state policies were aligned to promote prairie strips, the practice would be applicable to 3.9 million ha of cropland in Iowa alone.","Schulte, Lisa A.; Niemi, Jarad; Helmers, Matthew J.; Liebman, Matt; Arbuckle, J. Gordon; James, David E.; Kolka, Randall K.; O’Neal, Matthew E.; Tomer, Mark D.; Tyndall, John C.; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Drobney, Pauline; Neal, Jeri; Van Ryswyk, Gary; Witte, Chris",10.1073/pnas.1620229114,,42,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",11247-11252,"Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands",114,2017,26607,cf5cd564-9f71-4025-93e5-9407832bd93e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1620229114
/reference/d19382cb-6fd4-47f1-b3e2-a1f93a64bbfb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d19382cb-6fd4-47f1-b3e2-a1f93a64bbfb,d19382cb-6fd4-47f1-b3e2-a1f93a64bbfb,,"Ewert, DavidN; Hall, KimberlyR; Smith, RobertJ; Rodewald, PaulG",10.1201/b18011-4,,,,17-46,"Landbird stopover in the Great Lakes region: Integrating habitat use and climate change in conservation",,2015,21242,d19382cb-6fd4-47f1-b3e2-a1f93a64bbfb,"Book Section",/book/phenological-synchrony-bird-migration-changing-climate-seasonal-resources-north-america
/reference/d2af0d06-91aa-4e53-99e1-4dad2ac9195a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d2af0d06-91aa-4e53-99e1-4dad2ac9195a,d2af0d06-91aa-4e53-99e1-4dad2ac9195a,,"Mallakpour, Iman; Villarini, Gabriele",10.1038/nclimate2516,03//print,3,"Nature Climate Change",250-254,"The changing nature of flooding across the central United States",5,2015,19562,d2af0d06-91aa-4e53-99e1-4dad2ac9195a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2516
/reference/d31183df-dd19-4463-b517-e6748e6d709b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d31183df-dd19-4463-b517-e6748e6d709b,d31183df-dd19-4463-b517-e6748e6d709b,,"Abel, David; Holloway, Tracey; Harkey, Monica; Rrushaj, Arber; Brinkman, Greg; Duran, Phillip; Janssen, Mark; Denholm, Paul",10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.049,2018/02/01/,,"Atmospheric Environment",65-74,"Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States",175,2018,26551,d31183df-dd19-4463-b517-e6748e6d709b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.049
/reference/d52d9be3-cae5-4190-af7e-b5a188d5869f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d52d9be3-cae5-4190-af7e-b5a188d5869f,d52d9be3-cae5-4190-af7e-b5a188d5869f,,"Brink, Ebba; Aalders, Theodor; Ádám, Dóra; Feller, Robert; Henselek, Yuki; Hoffmann, Alexander; Ibe, Karin; Matthey-Doret, Aude; Meyer, Moritz; Negrut, N. Lucian; Rau, Anna-Lena; Riewerts, Bente; von Schuckmann, Lukas; Törnros, Sara; von Wehrden, Henrik; Abson, David J.; Wamsler, Christine",10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003,2016/01/01/,,"Global Environmental Change",111-123,"Cascades of green: A review of ecosystem-based adaptation in urban areas",36,2016,26555,d52d9be3-cae5-4190-af7e-b5a188d5869f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.11.003
/reference/d6d1d2b6-1072-441f-9a44-727bd2834d47,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6d1d2b6-1072-441f-9a44-727bd2834d47,d6d1d2b6-1072-441f-9a44-727bd2834d47,,"Anderson, Chris; Claman, David; Mantilla, Ricardo",,,,,45,"Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot",,2015,26611,d6d1d2b6-1072-441f-9a44-727bd2834d47,Report,/report/iowas-bridge-highway-climate-change-extreme-weather-vulnerability-assessment-pilot
/reference/d7cd72b7-d121-4531-ba5a-35e7541ff578,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d7cd72b7-d121-4531-ba5a-35e7541ff578,d7cd72b7-d121-4531-ba5a-35e7541ff578,,"McEwan, Ryan W.; Dyer, James M.; Pederson, Neil",10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06390.x,,2,Ecography,244-256,"Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: Toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America",34,2011,21192,d7cd72b7-d121-4531-ba5a-35e7541ff578,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06390.x
/reference/d9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556,d9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556,,"Posey, John",,,,,,"St. Louis in the Anthropocene:  Responding to Global Environmental Change",,2016,21312,d9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556,"Book Section",/book/319c3027-5b6f-4282-87b1-196fdba9f201
/reference/dac369a3-921e-426f-b4a2-5798dfb9c515,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dac369a3-921e-426f-b4a2-5798dfb9c515,dac369a3-921e-426f-b4a2-5798dfb9c515,,"Palecki, M.A.
Changnon, S.A.
Kunkel, K.E.",10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<1353:TNAIOT>2.3.CO;2,,,"Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society",1353-1368,"The nature and impacts of the July 1999 heat wave in the midwestern United States: Learning from the lessons of 1995",82,2001,2405,dac369a3-921e-426f-b4a2-5798dfb9c515,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082%3C1353:TNAIOT%3E2.3.CO;2
/reference/db8b5f26-296a-4cd4-8c49-de8ca8c8b39d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/db8b5f26-296a-4cd4-8c49-de8ca8c8b39d,db8b5f26-296a-4cd4-8c49-de8ca8c8b39d,,"Cline, Timothy J.; Kitchell, James F.; Bennington, Val; McKinley, Galen A.; Moody, Eric K.; Weidel, Brian C.",10.1890/ES14-00059.1,,6,Ecosphere,1-13,"Climate impacts on landlocked sea lamprey: Implications for host-parasite interactions and invasive species management",5,2014,21226,db8b5f26-296a-4cd4-8c49-de8ca8c8b39d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1890/ES14-00059.1