uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/7ff44a61-b6b5-4e65-9cdc-6b4d8265bf82,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ff44a61-b6b5-4e65-9cdc-6b4d8265bf82,7ff44a61-b6b5-4e65-9cdc-6b4d8265bf82,"The sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus (Linnaeus) is both an invasive non-native species in the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America and an imperiled species in much of its native range in North America and Europe. To compare and contrast how understanding of population ecology is useful for control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in Europe, we review current understanding of the population ecology of the sea lamprey in its native and introduced range. Some attributes of sea lamprey population ecology are particularly useful for both control programs in the Great Lakes and restoration programs in the native range. First, traps within fish ladders are beneficial for removing sea lampreys in Great Lakes streams and passing sea lampreys in the native range. Second, attractants and repellants are suitable for luring sea lampreys into traps for control in the Great Lakes and guiding sea lamprey passage for conservation in the native range. Third, assessment methods used for targeting sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes are useful for targeting habitat protection in the native range. Last, assessment methods used to quantify numbers of all life stages of sea lampreys would be appropriate for measuring success of control in the Great Lakes and success of conservation in the native range.","Hansen, Michael J.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Slade, Jeffrey W.; Steeves, Todd B.; Almeida, Pedro R.; Quintella, Bernardo R.",10.1007/s11160-016-9440-3,"September 01",1573-5184,3,"Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries",509-535,"Population ecology of the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) as an invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and an imperiled species in Europe","journal article",26,2016,21121,7ff44a61-b6b5-4e65-9cdc-6b4d8265bf82,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s11160-016-9440-3
/reference/80341782-104c-4415-8650-70dd485b2246,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80341782-104c-4415-8650-70dd485b2246,80341782-104c-4415-8650-70dd485b2246,,"Kelly, Sara A.; Takbiri, Zeinab; Belmont, Patrick; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi",10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017,,1607-7938,10,"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",5065-5088,"Human amplified changes in precipitation–runoff patterns in large river basins of the Midwestern United States",,21,2017,26585,80341782-104c-4415-8650-70dd485b2246,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/hess-21-5065-2017
/reference/80446a6f-156b-48ee-9b50-faabef3a1e52,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80446a6f-156b-48ee-9b50-faabef3a1e52,80446a6f-156b-48ee-9b50-faabef3a1e52,"Flooding in the Mississippi basin has become increasingly uncertain, and a succession of progressively higher, peak annual water levels is observed at many sites. Many record levels set in the central USA by the huge 1993 flood have already been superseded. Methodology developed elsewhere that recognizes trends of river stages is used to estimate present-day flood risk at 27 sites in the Mississippi basin that have >100 years of continuous stage record. Unlike official estimates that are fundamentally based on discharge, this methodology requires only data on river stage. A novel plot linearizes the official flood levels that are indirectly derived from the complex, discharge-based calculations and demonstrates that the neglect of trends has resulted in the effective use of undersized means and standard deviations in flood risk analysis. A severe consequence is that official “base flood” levels are underestimated by 0.4 to 2 m at many sites in the central USA.","Criss, Robert E.; Luo, Mingming",10.1002/hyp.11097,,,6,"Hydrological Processes",1283-1292,"Increasing risk and uncertainty of flooding in the Mississippi River basin",,31,2017,26563,80446a6f-156b-48ee-9b50-faabef3a1e52,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/hyp.11097
/reference/80f7a770-614e-4190-a3d5-9d860c4011f3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80f7a770-614e-4190-a3d5-9d860c4011f3,80f7a770-614e-4190-a3d5-9d860c4011f3,,"NCGA,",,,,,,,"Soil Health Partnership [web page]",,,2018,26609,80f7a770-614e-4190-a3d5-9d860c4011f3,"Web Page",/webpage/1b0315e4-0fc4-4663-955e-54d6051dfc80
/reference/82e085fc-01f9-4484-a006-e4137793c49a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82e085fc-01f9-4484-a006-e4137793c49a,82e085fc-01f9-4484-a006-e4137793c49a,,"Brubaker, Michael; Bell, Jake; Berner, James; Black, Mike; Chaven, Raj; Smith, Jeff; Warren, John",,,,,,54,"Climate Change in Noatak, Alaska: Strategies for Community Health",,,2011,26556,82e085fc-01f9-4484-a006-e4137793c49a,Report,/report/climate-change-noatak-alaska-strategies-community-health
/reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a,83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a,"Maize (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) are the dominant grain crops across the Midwest and are grown on 75% of the arable land with small but economically important crops of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and oats (Avena sativa L.) but economically important crops. Historically, there have been variations in annual yields for maize and soybean related to the seasonal weather patterns. Key concerns are the impacts of future climate change on maize and soybean production and their vulnerability to future climate changes. To evaluate these, we analyzed the yield gaps as the difference between the attainable and actual yield at the county level and observed meteorological data to determine which seasonal meteorological variables were dominant in quantifying the actual/attainable yields. July maximum temperatures, August minimum temperatures, and July–August total precipitation were found to be the significant factors affecting the yield gap. These relationships were used to estimate the change in the yield gap through 2100 using both the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate scenarios for these variables for selected counties across the Midwest. Yield gaps increased with time for maize across the Midwest with the largest increases in the southern portion of the Corn Belt showing a large north-south gradient in the increase of the yield gap and minimal east-west gradient. Soybean was not as sensitive as maize because the projected temperatures do not exceed optimum temperature ranges for growth and reductions in production that are more sensitive to precipitation changes during the reproductive stages. Adaptation strategies for maize and soybean will require more innovation than simple agronomic management and require the linkage between geneticists, agronomists, and agricultural meteorologists to develop innovative strategies to preserve production in the Midwest.","Hatfield, J. L.; Wright-Morton, Lois; Hall, Beth",10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x,"June 12",1573-1480,1-2,"Climatic Change",263-275,"Vulnerability of grain crops and croplands in the Midwest to climatic variability and adaptation strategies","journal article",146,2018,23530,83a3b10a-7eeb-4b2e-a3c0-4cf8fb10de7a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1997-x
/reference/83cb3cb9-c2e7-4199-8bb4-b67cd8884512,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83cb3cb9-c2e7-4199-8bb4-b67cd8884512,83cb3cb9-c2e7-4199-8bb4-b67cd8884512,,"Kousky, Carolyn",10.1080/19390459.2010.511451,2010/10/18,1939-0459,4,"Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research",343-356,"Using natural capital to reduce disaster risk",,2,2010,21175,83cb3cb9-c2e7-4199-8bb4-b67cd8884512,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/19390459.2010.511451
/reference/83d23b83-2a04-4a6b-bdfa-caa8b54b1ccf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83d23b83-2a04-4a6b-bdfa-caa8b54b1ccf,83d23b83-2a04-4a6b-bdfa-caa8b54b1ccf,"U.S. hourly surface observations are examined at 145 stations to identify annual and seasonal changes in temperature, dewpoint, relative humidity, and specific humidity since 1930. Because of numerous systematic instrument changes that have occurred, a homogeneity assessment was performed on temperatures and dewpoints. Dewpoints contained higher breakpoint detection rates associated with instrumentation changes than did temperatures. Temperature trends were tempered by adjusting the data, whereas dewpoints were unaffected. The effects were the same whether the adjustments were based on statistically detected or fixed-year breakpoints. Average long-term trends (1930–2010) indicate that temperature has warmed but that little change has occurred in dewpoint and specific humidity. Warming is strongest in spring. There is evidence of inhomogeneity in the relative humidity record that primarily affects data from prior to 1950. Therefore, long-term decreases in relative humidity, which are strongest in winter, need to be viewed with caution. Trends since 1947 indicate that the warming of temperatures has coincided with increases in dewpoints and a moistening of specific humidity. This moistening is especially pronounced during the summer in the Midwest. For the nation, trends in relative humidity show little change for the period 1947–2010, during which these data are more homogeneous. Moistening has occurred throughout the central United States while other regions have experienced drying. Urban-related warming and drying trends are present in the data, but their effect is minimal. Regional changes in land use and moisture availability are likely influencing trends in atmospheric moisture.","Brown, Paula J.; Arthur T. DeGaetano",10.1175/jamc-d-12-035.1,,,1,"Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology",147-163,"Trends in U.S. surface humidity, 1930–2010",,52,2013,21201,83d23b83-2a04-4a6b-bdfa-caa8b54b1ccf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jamc-d-12-035.1
/reference/851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa,851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa,"This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).","Uejio, Christopher K.; Christenson, Megan; Moran, Colleen; Gorelick, Mark",10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9,"June 01",1435-0157,4,"Hydrogeology Journal",969-979,"Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater","journal article",25,2017,21114,851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9
/reference/858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067,858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067,,"Hurburgh, Charles",,,,,,,"Wet Weather Creates Challenges for Harvest",,,2016,21257,858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067,"Web Page",/webpage/615c1ba0-5040-4eb4-8c2c-cd4a9eac0196
/reference/865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4,865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4,"The Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District (MSD) is a regional Special Sewer District that provides Wastewater and Stormwater services to the City of St. Louis and most of St. Louis County, Missouri. The service area includes a Combined Sewer System (CSS) in the City and the older portions of the County. In 2011, MSD completed a Combined Sewer Overflow Long-Term Control Plan (LTCP), which was formalized in a Consent Decree (CD) with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April, 2012. MSD&#8217;s Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) control plan includes a $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program in the areas of the City of St. Louis that flow toward the Mississippi River CSOs. MSD spent five years conducting a $3 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Pilot Program, culminating in a CD required final report completed in December 2015. The report explains what work was completed in the GI Pilot Program and the results, and outlines MSD&#8217;s plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program control measure. This presentation will briefly review the GI Pilot Program, with the main focus to discuss the findings of the GI Pilot Program and the plan for full-implementation of the $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. Included will be major components of the program, the expected reduction in CSO volume and use of an adaptive management approach to manage the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program through 2034.<br></br>Implementation of green infrastructure for CSO volume reduction is one of many ways green infrastructure can be strategized for use in urban areas. As a separate entity from the City of St. Louis, MSD's plan highlights the important role that collaboration must have in the implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. The plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program was developed with critical consideration of public-private partnerships, support of planned use areas and encouraging development and redevelopment in the City of St. Louis. Found to be effective in the GI Pilot Program, these same strategies are applicable to other communities planning and implementing green infrastructure programs.","Norton, Melantha D.; Moore, Gary T.",10.2175/193864717821494853,//,,2,"Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation",61-81,"St. Louis MSD CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program",,2017,2017,26600,865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4,"Journal Article",/article/10.2175/193864717821494853
/reference/87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a,87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a,,"Pan, Z.
Arritt, R.W.
Takle, E.S.
Gutowski, W.J., Jr.
Anderson, C.J.
Segal, M.",10.1029/2004GL020528,,0094-8276,17,"Geophysical Research Letters",L17109,"Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole”",,31,2004,2413,87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1029/2004GL020528
/reference/88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5,88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5,,"MDNR,",,,,,,114,"Natural Wild Rice in Minnesota",,,2008,21260,88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5,Report,/report/mndnr-natwildrice-2008
/reference/8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62,8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62,,"Forbes, Donald L.; Gavin K. Manson; Richard Chagnon; Steven M. Solomon; Joost J. van der Sanden; Tracy L. Lynds",,"December 2-6",,,,344-351,"Nearshore ice and climate change in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence",,,,26568,8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62,"Conference Proceedings",/generic/e121f1e3-22bc-4e6a-9b40-a990eb216a6b
/reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8,8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8,"Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.","Woodruff, Sierra C.; Stults, Missy",10.1038/nclimate3012,08//print,1758-678X,8,"Nature Climate Change",796-802,"Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans",Article,6,2016,21160,8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3012
/reference/8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962,8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962,"Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.","Cline, Timothy J.; Bennington, Val; Kitchell, James F.",10.1371/journal.pone.0062279,,,4,"PLOS ONE",e62279,"Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes",,8,2013,21212,8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0062279
/reference/8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5,8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5,,"Brandt, Leslie; He, Hong; Iverson, Louis; Thompson, Frank R.; Butler, Patricia; Handler, Stephen; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Albrecht, Matthew; Blume-Weaver, Richard; Deizman, Paul; DePuy, John; Dijak, William D.; Dinkel, Gary; Fei, Songlin; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Leahy, Michael; Matthews, Stephen; Nelson, Paul; Oberle, Brad; Perez, Judi; Peters, Matthew; Prasad, Anantha; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.; Shuey, John; Smith, Adam B.; Studyvin, Charles; Tirpak, John M.; Walk, Jeffery W.; Wang, Wen J.; Watts, Laura; Weigel, Dale; Westin, Steve",,,,,,254,"Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project",,,2014,21263,8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5,Report,/report/central-hardwoods-ecosystem-vulnerability-assessment-synthesis-report-central-hardwoods-climate-change-response-framework-project
/reference/8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d,8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d,,"Handler, Stephen; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Iverson, Louis; Peters, Emily; Scheller, Robert M.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Eagle, Amy Clark; Cohen, Joshua G.; Corner, Rich; Reich, Peter B.; Baker, Tim; Chhin, Sophan; Clark, Eric; Fehringer, David; Fosgitt, Jon; Gries, James; Hall, Christine; Hall, Kimberly R.; Heyd, Robert; Hoving, Christopher L.; Ibáñez, Ines; Kuhr, Don; Matthews, Stephen; Muladore, Jennifer; Nadelhoffer, Knute; Neumann, David; Peters, Matthew; Prasad, Anantha; Sands, Matt; Swaty, Randy; Wonch, Leiloni; Daley, Jad; Davenport, Mae; Emery, Marla R.; Johnson, Gary; Johnson, Lucinda; Neitzel, David; Rissman, Adena; Rittenhouse, Chadwick; Ziel, Robert",,,,,,229,"Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project",,,2014,21268,8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d,Report,/report/michigan-forest-ecosystem-vulnerability-assessment-synthesis-report-northwoods-climate-change-response-framework-project
/reference/8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827,8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827,,"Whitfield, Geoffrey P.; Meehan, Leslie A.; Maizlish, Neil; Wendel, Arthur M.",10.1016/j.jth.2016.06.009,2017/06/01/,2214-1405,,"Journal of Transport & Health",172-181,"The integrated transport and health impact modeling tool in Nashville, Tennessee, USA: Implementation steps and lessons learned",,5,2017,21146,8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.jth.2016.06.009
/reference/8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea,8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea,,"Minnesota Department of Health,",,,,,,100,"Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Health & Well-Being of Minnesotans",,,2015,21292,8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea,Report,/report/minnesota-climate-health-profile-report-2015-an-assessment-climate-change-impacts-on-health-well-being-minnesotans
/reference/8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65,8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65,"A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the large basin runoff model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); as in previous published work, it is shown here that the model’s very high sensitivity to temperature causes it to overestimate ET in a way that is greatly at variance with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. The traditional formulation is characterized here as being equivalent to having several suns in the virtual sky created by LBRM. More physically based methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less potential ET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, it is found that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level. The lesson for the larger climate impact community is to use caution about whether an impact is forced directly by air temperature itself or is significantly forced by season or latitude independently of temperature. The results here apply only to the water levels of the Great Lakes and the hydrology of its basin and do not affect larger questions of climate change.","Lofgren, Brent M.; Jonathan Rouhana",10.1175/jhm-d-15-0220.1,,,8,"Journal of Hydrometeorology",2209-2223,"Physically plausible methods for projecting changes in Great Lakes water levels under climate change scenarios",,17,2016,21205,8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0220.1
/reference/8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b,8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b,,"EIA,",,,,,,,"U.S. States: Table C9. Electric Power Sector Consumption Estimates, 2016 [web site]",,,2016,26692,8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b,"Web Page",/webpage/62be0bae-823d-429c-9e2d-4b4155ce5868
/reference/8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961,8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961,,"Phadke, Roopali; Manning, Christie; Burlager, Samantha",10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.005,2015/01/01/,2212-0963,,"Climate Risk Management",62-76,"Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning",,9,2015,21131,8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.005
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