--- - attrs: Author: 'Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Muller, Christoph; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Boote, Kenneth J.; Conway, Declan; Ruane, Alex C.; Gerten, Dieter; Jones, James W.; Khabarov, Nikolay; Olin, Stefan; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schmid, Erwin; Yang, Hong; Rosenzweig, Cynthia' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2995 Date: 08//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 786-790 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Regional disparities in the beneficial effects of rising CO2 concentrations on crop water productivity Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21159 _uuid: 01e5478f-21b6-4ecb-a360-d3ecb4416f3e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2995 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/01e5478f-21b6-4ecb-a360-d3ecb4416f3e.yaml identifier: 01e5478f-21b6-4ecb-a360-d3ecb4416f3e uri: /reference/01e5478f-21b6-4ecb-a360-d3ecb4416f3e - attrs: Author: 'Bryan, A. M.; Steiner, A. L.; Posselt, D. J.' DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022316 ISSN: 2169-8996 Issue: 3 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Keywords: land-atmosphere interactions; lake feedbacks; regional climate modeling; Great Lakes; hydroclimate; 1818 Evapotranspiration; 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions; 3355 Regional modeling Pages: 1044-1064 Title: Regional modeling of surface-atmosphere interactions and their impact on Great Lakes hydroclimate Volume: 120 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21106 _uuid: 03f91fdd-6d7d-431b-997b-91f63f52fe45 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2014JD022316 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/03f91fdd-6d7d-431b-997b-91f63f52fe45.yaml identifier: 03f91fdd-6d7d-431b-997b-91f63f52fe45 uri: /reference/03f91fdd-6d7d-431b-997b-91f63f52fe45 - attrs: Abstract: 'While there has been considerable focus on understanding barriers to climate information use associated with the character of climate knowledge, individuals’ negative perception of its usability and constraints of decision-contexts, less attention has been paid to understanding how different scales of decision-making influence information use. In this study, we explore how water and resource managers’ scales of decision-making and scope of decision responsibilities influence climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information remains low. Reasons include (a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky, (b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, (c) problems with the information itself, and (d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that (1) scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have willingness and authority to use climate information; (2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g., state), it is unlikely that climate information use will accelerate significantly; and (3) the trend towards characterizing climate specific actions within a broader concept of sustainability practices, or “adaptation by stealth,” should be supported as a component of the climate adaptation repertoire.' Author: 'Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Kirchhoff, Christine J.; Lemos, Maria Carmen' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1857-0 Date: February 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 451-465 Title: 'Adaptation by stealth: Climate information use in the Great Lakes region across scales' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 140 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21118 _uuid: 041b2d97-efb7-4c25-9c23-8e8db788bd25 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1857-0 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/041b2d97-efb7-4c25-9c23-8e8db788bd25.yaml identifier: 041b2d97-efb7-4c25-9c23-8e8db788bd25 uri: /reference/041b2d97-efb7-4c25-9c23-8e8db788bd25 - attrs: Abstract: 'The role of extreme weather events in shaping people’s climate change beliefs and adaptation attitudes has been extensively studied and discussed in academic literature, the popular press, and policy circles. In this manuscript, we contribute to the debate by using data from pre- and post-extreme event surveys to examine the effects of the 2012 Midwestern US drought on agricultural advisors’ climate change beliefs, adaptation attitudes, and risk perceptions. We found that neither climate change beliefs nor attitudes toward adaptation changed significantly as a result of the drought. Risk perceptions did change, however, with advisors becoming more concerned about risks from drought and pests and less concerned about risks related to flooding and ponding. Though increased risk perceptions were significantly associated with more favorable adaptation attitudes, the effects were not large enough to cause an overall shift to more favorable attitudes toward adaptation. The results suggest that extreme climate events might not cause significant shifts in climate beliefs, at least not immediately. Additionally, the results caution that policy designs that rely on increasing risk perceptions to motivate action on climate change may be overestimating the effects of extreme events on feeling at risk, at least in the context of buffered systems such as large commercial agriculture in the US.' Author: 'Carlton, J. Stuart; Mase, Amber S.; Knutson, Cody L.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Haigh, Tonya; Todey, Dennis P.; Prokopy, Linda S.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1561-5 Date: March 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 2 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 211-226 Title: 'The effects of extreme drought on climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation attitudes' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 135 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26559 _uuid: 043c2a1a-cb49-4ceb-b03e-a32771bd3292 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1561-5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/043c2a1a-cb49-4ceb-b03e-a32771bd3292.yaml identifier: 043c2a1a-cb49-4ceb-b03e-a32771bd3292 uri: /reference/043c2a1a-cb49-4ceb-b03e-a32771bd3292 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'NOAA NCEI,' Place Published: 'Asheville, NC' Publisher: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Title: 'Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters [web page]' URL: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2017 Year: 2018 _record_number: 21310 _uuid: 04aa6da1-18ac-435a-b31d-f4f65da727df reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/0e668d96-b03f-403d-9e60-a816c99c6ac4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/04aa6da1-18ac-435a-b31d-f4f65da727df.yaml identifier: 04aa6da1-18ac-435a-b31d-f4f65da727df uri: /reference/04aa6da1-18ac-435a-b31d-f4f65da727df - attrs: Abstract: "Achieving health benefits while reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transport offers a potential policy win-win; the magnitude of potential benefits, however, is likely to vary. This study uses an Integrated Transport and Health Impact Modelling tool (ITHIM) to evaluate the health and environmental impacts of high walking and cycling transport scenarios for English and Welsh urban areas outside London. Methods Three scenarios with increased walking and cycling and lower car use were generated based upon the Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling project. Changes to carbon dioxide emissions were estimated by environmental modelling. Health impact assessment modelling was used to estimate changes in Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) resulting from changes in exposure to air pollution, road traffic injury risk, and physical activity. We compare the findings of the model with results generated using the World Health Organization's Health Economic Assessment of Transport (HEAT) tools. Results This study found considerable reductions in disease burden under all three scenarios, with the largest health benefits attributed to reductions in ischemic heart disease. The pathways that produced the largest benefits were, in order, physical activity, road traffic injuries, and air pollution. The choice of dose response relationship for physical activity had a large impact on the size of the benefits. Modelling the impact on all-cause mortality rather than through individual diseases suggested larger benefits. Using the best available evidence we found fewer road traffic injuries for all scenarios compared with baseline but alternative assumptions suggested potential increases. Conclusions Methods to estimate the health impacts from transport related physical activity and injury risk are in their infancy; this study has demonstrated an integration of transport and health impact modelling approaches. The findings add to the case for a move from car transport to walking and cycling, and have implications for empirical and modelling research." Author: 'Woodcock, James; Givoni, Moshe; Morgan, Andrei Scott' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0051462 Issue: 1 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e51462 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: Health impact modelling of active travel visions for England and Wales using an integrated transport and health impact modelling tool (ITHIM) Volume: 8 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21211 _uuid: 06634d89-c838-4a06-ad76-6fca7deef5c0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0051462 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/06634d89-c838-4a06-ad76-6fca7deef5c0.yaml identifier: 06634d89-c838-4a06-ad76-6fca7deef5c0 uri: /reference/06634d89-c838-4a06-ad76-6fca7deef5c0 - attrs: Abstract: "Their higher production performance and feed conversion efficiency make today's chickens more susceptible to heat stress than ever before. The increasing proportion of poultry production in tropical and subtropical regions makes it necessary to reconsider the long-term selection strategy of today's commercial breeding programmes. Also, the importance of the potential use of Naked neck and Frizzle genes is accentuated. Nutritional strategies aimed to alleviate the negative effects of heat stress by maintaining feed intake, electrolytic and water balance or by supplementing micronutrients such as Vitamins and minerals to satisfy the special needs during heat stress have been proven advantageous. To enhance the birds' thermotolerance by early heat conditioning or feed restriction seems to be one of the most promising management methods in enhancing the heat resistance of broiler chickens in the short run." Author: 'Lin, H.; Jiao, H. C.; Buyse, J.; Decuypere, E.' DOI: 10.1079/WPS200585 Database Provider: Cambridge University Press EPub Date: 09/01 ISSN: 0043-9339 Issue: 1 Journal: World's Poultry Science Journal Keywords: heat stress; heat tolerance; naked neck gene; major gene; Vitamin; electrolyte; feeding; environment Name of Database: Cambridge Core Pages: 71-86 Publisher: Cambridge University Press on behalf of World's Poultry Science Association Title: Strategies for preventing heat stress in poultry Volume: 62 Year: 2007 _record_number: 21171 _uuid: 06f01e99-7afa-4be6-93ab-881cab8e56b8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1079/WPS200585 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/06f01e99-7afa-4be6-93ab-881cab8e56b8.yaml identifier: 06f01e99-7afa-4be6-93ab-881cab8e56b8 uri: /reference/06f01e99-7afa-4be6-93ab-881cab8e56b8 - attrs: Author: 'Hondula, David M.; Davis, Robert E.; Saha, Michael V.; Wegner, Carleigh R.; Veazey, Lindsay M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2015.02.033 Date: 2015/04/01/ ISSN: 0013-9351 Journal: Environmental Research Keywords: Heat; Mortality; Spatial; Vulnerability; Urban Pages: 439-452 Title: Geographic dimensions of heat-related mortality in seven U.S. cities Volume: 138 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21134 _uuid: 07bf9911-7206-4013-a51c-5c14abc490e0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2015.02.033 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/07bf9911-7206-4013-a51c-5c14abc490e0.yaml identifier: 07bf9911-7206-4013-a51c-5c14abc490e0 uri: /reference/07bf9911-7206-4013-a51c-5c14abc490e0 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Takle, Eugene S.; Chris Anderson; Manoj Jha; Philip W. Gassman' Book Title: Coastal Hydrology and Processes Editor: 'Singh, Vijay P.; Y. Jun Xu' ISBN: "978-1-887201-46-9\r\n" Pages: 135-142 Place Published: 'Highlands Ranch, CO' Publisher: Water Resources Publications LLC Title: 'Upper Mississippi River Basin Modeling Systems Part 4: Climate change impacts on flow and water quality' Year: 2006 _record_number: 25924 _uuid: 08a5617e-0a70-464a-acca-2fa167c19980 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/cc6cee77-d798-4a46-87c6-1e0b2bfd722c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08a5617e-0a70-464a-acca-2fa167c19980.yaml identifier: 08a5617e-0a70-464a-acca-2fa167c19980 uri: /reference/08a5617e-0a70-464a-acca-2fa167c19980 - attrs: Author: 'Anderson, Pamela K.; Cunningham, Andrew A.; Patel, Nikkita G.; Morales, Francisco J.; Epstein, Paul R.; Daszak, Peter' DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021 Date: 2004/10/01/ ISSN: 0169-5347 Issue: 10 Journal: Trends in Ecology & Evolution Pages: 535-544 Title: 'Emerging infectious diseases of plants: Pathogen pollution, climate change and agrotechnology drivers' Volume: 19 Year: 2004 _record_number: 21148 _uuid: 08aa118d-3131-4d8a-894f-8b342f1b6187 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.tree.2004.07.021 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08aa118d-3131-4d8a-894f-8b342f1b6187.yaml identifier: 08aa118d-3131-4d8a-894f-8b342f1b6187 uri: /reference/08aa118d-3131-4d8a-894f-8b342f1b6187 - attrs: Author: 'Werkheiser, Ian' DOI: 10.1080/02691728.2014.971911 Date: 2016/01/02 ISSN: 0269-1728 Issue: 1 Journal: Social Epistemology Pages: 25-44 Publisher: Routledge Title: Community epistemic capacity Volume: 30 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21173 _uuid: 093cbfa3-b7b8-44bd-b828-415363041d34 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/02691728.2014.971911 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/093cbfa3-b7b8-44bd-b828-415363041d34.yaml identifier: 093cbfa3-b7b8-44bd-b828-415363041d34 uri: /reference/093cbfa3-b7b8-44bd-b828-415363041d34 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Swanston, Chris; Janowiak, Maria; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Handler, Stephen D.; Shannon, P. Danielle; Derby Lewis, Abigail; Hall, Kimbery; Fahey, Robert T.; Scott, Lydia; Kerber, Angela; Miesbauer, Jason W.; Darling, Lindsay' Institution: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Pages: 161 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Series Volume: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-87-2 Title: 'Forest Adaptation Resources: Climate Change Tools and Approaches for Land Managers, 2nd ed' URL: https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs87-2.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 21278 _uuid: 0a09b8e3-ab3b-43fc-8aa2-836e74c38dc6 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/forest-adaptation-resources-climate-change-tools-approaches-land-managers-2nd-ed href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0a09b8e3-ab3b-43fc-8aa2-836e74c38dc6.yaml identifier: 0a09b8e3-ab3b-43fc-8aa2-836e74c38dc6 uri: /reference/0a09b8e3-ab3b-43fc-8aa2-836e74c38dc6 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'GRAEF,; Hey and Associates Inc.,; CDM Smith,' Institution: Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District Pages: 9 Place Published: 'Milwaukee, WI' Research Notes: https://www.mmsd.com/application/files/4314/9522/1491/KK_Watershed_Flood_Management_Plan_05_04_17_-_-EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_002.pdf Title: 'Kinnickinnic River Watershed Flood Management Plan: Final Report. Executive Summary' URL: https://www.mmsd.com/application/files/4314/9522/1491/KK_Watershed_Flood_Management_Plan_05_04_17_-_-EXECUTIVE_SUMMARY_002.pdf Year: 2017 _record_number: 26598 _uuid: 0a2139b3-514c-4784-8fed-37831138aa6e reftype: Report child_publication: /report/kinnickinnic-river-watershed-flood-management-plan-final-report-executive-summary href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0a2139b3-514c-4784-8fed-37831138aa6e.yaml identifier: 0a2139b3-514c-4784-8fed-37831138aa6e uri: /reference/0a2139b3-514c-4784-8fed-37831138aa6e - attrs: Author: "O'Reilly, Catherine M.; Sharma, Sapna; Gray, Derek K.; Hampton, Stephanie E.; Read, Jordan S.; Rowley, Rex J.; Schneider, Philipp; Lenters, John D.; McIntyre, Peter B.; Kraemer, Benjamin M.; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Straile, Dietmar; Dong, Bo; Adrian, Rita; Allan, Mathew G.; Anneville, Orlane; Arvola, Lauri; Austin, Jay; Bailey, John L.; Baron, Jill S.; Brookes, Justin D.; de Eyto, Elvira; Dokulil, Martin T.; Hamilton, David P.; Havens, Karl; Hetherington, Amy L.; Higgins, Scott N.; Hook, Simon; Izmest'eva, Lyubov R.; Joehnk, Klaus D.; Kangur, Kulli; Kasprzak, Peter; Kumagai, Michio; Kuusisto, Esko; Leshkevich, George; Livingstone, David M.; MacIntyre, Sally; May, Linda; Melack, John M.; Mueller-Navarra, Doerthe C.; Naumenko, Mikhail; Noges, Peeter; Noges, Tiina; North, Ryan P.; Plisnier, Pierre-Denis; Rigosi, Anna; Rimmer, Alon; Rogora, Michela; Rudstam, Lars G.; Rusak, James A.; Salmaso, Nico; Samal, Nihar R.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Schladow, S. Geoffrey; Schmid, Martin; Schmidt, Silke R.; Silow, Eugene; Soylu, M. Evren; Teubner, Katrin; Verburg, Piet; Voutilainen, Ari; Watkinson, Andrew; Williamson, Craig E.; Zhang, Guoqing" DOI: 10.1002/2015GL066235 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 24 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: lakes; climate change; temperature; 0746 Lakes; 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change; 1807 Climate impacts; 4942 Limnology Pages: '10,773-10,781' Title: Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe Volume: 42 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21107 _uuid: 0a32a5fe-c148-4fc4-a7bb-d8f971dd6958 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2015GL066235 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0a32a5fe-c148-4fc4-a7bb-d8f971dd6958.yaml identifier: 0a32a5fe-c148-4fc4-a7bb-d8f971dd6958 uri: /reference/0a32a5fe-c148-4fc4-a7bb-d8f971dd6958 - attrs: Author: 'Jacobson, Peter C.; Jones, Thomas S.; Rivers, Pat; Pereira, Donald L.' DOI: 10.1577/T07-148.1 Date: 2008/09/01 ISSN: 0002-8487 Issue: 5 Journal: Transactions of the American Fisheries Society Pages: 1464-1474 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Title: Field estimation of a lethal oxythermal niche boundary for adult ciscoes in Minnesota lakes Volume: 137 Year: 2008 _record_number: 26579 _uuid: 0af726e2-a84b-4ac8-bb59-6aa07326ef7b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1577/T07-148.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0af726e2-a84b-4ac8-bb59-6aa07326ef7b.yaml identifier: 0af726e2-a84b-4ac8-bb59-6aa07326ef7b uri: /reference/0af726e2-a84b-4ac8-bb59-6aa07326ef7b - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Pages: 271 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 430‐R‐17‐001 Title: 'Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment' URL: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21365 _uuid: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94.yaml identifier: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 uri: /reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 - attrs: Author: 'Grigal, David F.' DOI: 10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00395-9 Date: 2000/11/01/ ISSN: 0378-1127 Issue: 1 Journal: Forest Ecology and Management Keywords: Soil productivity; Forest harvest; Nutrient depletion; Soil physical properties Pages: 167-185 Title: Effects of extensive forest management on soil productivity Volume: 138 Year: 2000 _record_number: 21150 _uuid: 0b311f1c-c76f-4e2d-81a2-fab6626c2efb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/S0378-1127(00)00395-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b311f1c-c76f-4e2d-81a2-fab6626c2efb.yaml identifier: 0b311f1c-c76f-4e2d-81a2-fab6626c2efb uri: /reference/0b311f1c-c76f-4e2d-81a2-fab6626c2efb - attrs: Author: 'Landis, Douglas A.' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa825c ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 10 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 101003 Title: Productive engagement with agriculture essential to monarch butterfly conservation Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26591 _uuid: 0b9ab850-d8fc-45df-b2d4-64b0f3f09585 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa825c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b9ab850-d8fc-45df-b2d4-64b0f3f09585.yaml identifier: 0b9ab850-d8fc-45df-b2d4-64b0f3f09585 uri: /reference/0b9ab850-d8fc-45df-b2d4-64b0f3f09585 - attrs: Abstract: 'The eastern migratory population of monarch butterflies ( Danaus plexippus plexippus ) has declined by >80% within the last two decades. One possible cause of this decline is the loss of ≥1.3 billion stems of milkweed ( Asclepias spp.), which monarchs require for reproduction. In an effort to restore monarchs to a population goal established by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and adopted by Mexico, Canada, and the US, we developed scenarios for amending the Midwestern US landscape with milkweed. Scenarios for milkweed restoration were developed for protected area grasslands, Conservation Reserve Program land, powerline, rail and roadside rights of way, urban/suburban lands, and land in agricultural production. Agricultural land was further divided into productive and marginal cropland. We elicited expert opinion as to the biological potential (in stems per acre) for lands in these individual sectors to support milkweed restoration and the likely adoption (probability) of management practices necessary for affecting restoration. Sixteen of 218 scenarios we developed for restoring milkweed to the Midwestern US were at levels (>1.3 billion new stems) necessary to reach the monarch population goal. One of these scenarios would convert all marginal agriculture to conserved status. The other 15 scenarios converted half of marginal agriculture (730 million stems), with remaining stems contributed by other societal sectors. Scenarios without substantive agricultural participation were insufficient for attaining the population goal. Agricultural lands are essential to reaching restoration targets because they occupy 77% of all potential monarch habitat. Barring fundamental changes to policy, innovative application of economic tools such as habitat exchanges may provide sufficient resources to tip the balance of the agro-ecological landscape toward a setting conducive to both robust agricultural production and reduced imperilment of the migratory monarch butterfly.' Author: 'Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Laura López-Hoffman; Jason Rohweder; Jay Diffendorfer; Ryan Drum; Darius Semmens; Scott Black; Iris Caldwell; Donita Cotter; Pauline Drobney; Laura L. Jackson; Michael Gale; Doug Helmers; Steve Hilburger; Elizabeth Howard; Karen Oberhauser; John Pleasants; Brice Semmens; Orley Taylor; Patrick Ward; Jake F. Weltzin; Ruscena Wiederholt' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7637 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 7 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 074005 Title: 'Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: "All hands on deck"' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26614 _uuid: 0bdba9e3-4213-43a8-86bd-3e37a80f1783 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7637 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0bdba9e3-4213-43a8-86bd-3e37a80f1783.yaml identifier: 0bdba9e3-4213-43a8-86bd-3e37a80f1783 uri: /reference/0bdba9e3-4213-43a8-86bd-3e37a80f1783 - attrs: Abstract: 'Our improved capability to adapt to the future changes in discharge is linked to our capability to predict the magnitude or at least the direction of these changes. For the agricultural United States Midwest, too much or too little water has severe socioeconomic impacts. Here, we focus on the Raccoon River at Van Meter, Iowa, and use a statistical approach to examine projected changes in discharge. We build on statistical models using rainfall and harvested corn and soybean acreage to explain the observed discharge variability. We then use projections of these two predictors to examine the projected discharge response. Results are based on seven global climate models part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). There is not a strong signal of change in the discharge projections under the RCP 4.5. However, the results for the RCP 8.5 point to a stronger changing signal related to larger projected increases in rainfall, resulting in increased trends, in particular, in the upper part of the discharge distribution (i.e., 60th percentile and above). Examination of two hypothetical agricultural scenarios indicates that these increasing trends could be alleviated by decreasing the extent of the agricultural production. We also discuss how the methodology presented in this study represents a viable approach to move forward with the concept of return period for engineering design and management in a nonstationary world.' Author: 'Villarini, Gabriele; Scoccimarro, Enrico; White, Kathleen D.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Schilling, Keith E.; Ghosh, Joyee' DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12318 Issue: 5 Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association Pages: 1361-1371 Title: Projected changes in discharge in an agricultural watershed in Iowa Volume: 51 Year: 2015 _record_number: 26621 _uuid: 0e1b2c5a-3aa2-4df2-8596-11b1398bedbf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/1752-1688.12318 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0e1b2c5a-3aa2-4df2-8596-11b1398bedbf.yaml identifier: 0e1b2c5a-3aa2-4df2-8596-11b1398bedbf uri: /reference/0e1b2c5a-3aa2-4df2-8596-11b1398bedbf - attrs: Abstract: 'By 2050, the world population is likely to be 9.1 billion, the CO(2) concentration 550 ppm, the ozone concentration 60 ppb and the climate warmer by ca 2 degrees C. In these conditions, what contribution can increased crop yield make to feeding the world? CO(2) enrichment is likely to increase yields of most crops by approximately 13 per cent but leave yields of C4 crops unchanged. It will tend to reduce water consumption by all crops, but this effect will be approximately cancelled out by the effect of the increased temperature on evaporation rates. In many places increased temperature will provide opportunities to manipulate agronomy to improve crop performance. Ozone concentration increases will decrease yields by 5 per cent or more. Plant breeders will probably be able to increase yields considerably in the CO(2)-enriched environment of the future, and most weeds and airborne pests and diseases should remain controllable, so long as policy changes do not remove too many types of crop-protection chemicals. However, soil-borne pathogens are likely to be an increasing problem when warmer weather will increase their multiplication rates; control is likely to need a transgenic approach to breeding for resistance. There is a large gap between achievable yields and those delivered by farmers, even in the most efficient agricultural systems. A gap is inevitable, but there are large differences between farmers, even between those who have used the same resources. If this gap is closed and accompanied by improvements in potential yields then there is a good prospect that crop production will increase by approximately 50 per cent or more by 2050 without extra land. However, the demands for land to produce bio-energy have not been factored into these calculations.' Author: 'Jaggard, K. W.; Qi, A.; Ober, E. S.' Author Address: "Rothamsted Research, Broom's Barn Research Centre, Higham, Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, UK. keith.jaggard@bbsrc.ac.uk" DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0153 Database Provider: CCII PubMed NLM Date: Sep 27 EPub Date: 2010/08/18 ISSN: "1471-2970 (Electronic)\r0962-8436 (Linking)" Issue: 1554 Journal: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences Keywords: 'Agriculture/ methods; Carbon Dioxide; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural/ growth & development; Food Supply; Humans; Ozone; Water' Language: eng NIHMSID: ' NIEHS' PMCID: 2935124 Pages: 2835-2851 Title: Possible changes to arable crop yields by 2050 Volume: 365 Year: 2010 _record_number: 7134 _uuid: 0f174dcb-f759-4605-9bec-030c1b09309c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rstb.2010.0153 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0f174dcb-f759-4605-9bec-030c1b09309c.yaml identifier: 0f174dcb-f759-4605-9bec-030c1b09309c uri: /reference/0f174dcb-f759-4605-9bec-030c1b09309c - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Winters, Brad A.; Jim Angel; Clayton Ballerine; Jennifer Byard; Amanda Flegel; Daniel Gambill; Emily Jenkins; Sally McConkey; Momcilo Markus; Bruce A. Bender; Molly J. O’Toole' Institution: Illinois Department of Natural Resources Pages: 89 Place Published: 'Springfield, IL' Title: Report for the Urban Flooding Awareness Act URL: https://www.dnr.illinois.gov/WaterResources/Documents/Final_UFAA_Report.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 21244 _uuid: 0fe1cea1-aae3-4a35-b78f-61dcb5d6df49 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/report-urban-flooding-awareness-act href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0fe1cea1-aae3-4a35-b78f-61dcb5d6df49.yaml identifier: 0fe1cea1-aae3-4a35-b78f-61dcb5d6df49 uri: /reference/0fe1cea1-aae3-4a35-b78f-61dcb5d6df49 - attrs: Abstract: 'Worldwide, human appropriation of ecosystems is disrupting plant–pollinator communities and pollination function through habitat conversion and landscape homogenisation. Conversion to agriculture is destroying and degrading semi-natural ecosystems while conventional land-use intensification (e.g. industrial management of large-scale monocultures with high chemical inputs) homogenises landscape structure and quality. Together, these anthropogenic processes reduce the connectivity of populations and erode floral and nesting resources to undermine pollinator abundance and diversity, and ultimately pollination services. Ecological intensification of agriculture represents a strategic alternative to ameliorate these drivers of pollinator decline while supporting sustainable food production, by promoting biodiversity beneficial to agricultural production through management practices such as intercropping, crop rotations, farm-level diversification and reduced agrochemical use. We critically evaluate its potential to address and reverse the land use and management trends currently degrading pollinator communities and potentially causing widespread pollination deficits. We find that many of the practices that constitute ecological intensification can contribute to mitigating the drivers of pollinator decline. Our findings support ecological intensification as a solution to pollinator declines, and we discuss ways to promote it in agricultural policy and practice.' Author: 'Kovács-Hostyánszki, Anikó; Espíndola, Anahí; Vanbergen, Adam J.; Settele, Josef; Kremen, Claire; Dicks, Lynn V.' DOI: 10.1111/ele.12762 Issue: 5 Journal: Ecology Letters Pages: 673-689 Title: Ecological intensification to mitigate impacts of conventional intensive land use on pollinators and pollination Volume: 20 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26590 _uuid: 10d95adc-3607-4080-b10d-d42f28b69a21 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/ele.12762 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/10d95adc-3607-4080-b10d-d42f28b69a21.yaml identifier: 10d95adc-3607-4080-b10d-d42f28b69a21 uri: /reference/10d95adc-3607-4080-b10d-d42f28b69a21 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'Workboat Staff,' Publisher: WorkBoat.com Title: Flooding delays barge traffic URL: https://www.workboat.com/news/coastal-inland-waterways/flooding-delays-barge-traffic/ Year: 2015 _record_number: 21317 _uuid: 126256c6-a9c1-4b9f-bb8f-c43638c7db15 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/5d30592d-0f15-47a2-87ff-74549e542bbb href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/126256c6-a9c1-4b9f-bb8f-c43638c7db15.yaml identifier: 126256c6-a9c1-4b9f-bb8f-c43638c7db15 uri: /reference/126256c6-a9c1-4b9f-bb8f-c43638c7db15