--- - attrs: Author: 'Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan' DOI: 10.1002/2013JD019994 ISSN: 2169-8996 Issue: 22 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Keywords: dynamical downscaling; CMIP5; Great Plains; WRF; extreme rainfall events; model evaluation; 0550 Model verification and validation; 1626 Global climate models; 1817 Extreme events; 1854 Precipitation; 3355 Regional modeling Pages: '12,522-12,536' Title: Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models Volume: 118 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21105 _uuid: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013JD019994 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a.yaml identifier: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a uri: /reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a - attrs: Author: 'Ludsin, Stuart A.; Kershner, Mark W.; Blocksom, Karen A.; Knight, Roger L.; Stein, Roy A.' DOI: '10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[0731:LADILE]2.0.CO;2' ISSN: 1939-5582 Issue: 3 Journal: Ecological Applications Keywords: detrended correspondence analysis; eutrophication; Great Lakes; Lake Erie; oligotrophication; phosphorus abatement; productivity; resilience; species diversity; species richness; species turnover; succession Pages: 731-746 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: 'Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation' Volume: 11 Year: 2001 _record_number: 21222 _uuid: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011%5B0731:LADILE%5D2.0.CO;2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4.yaml identifier: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 uri: /reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 - attrs: .reference_type: 32 Author: "Kunkel, K. E.\rStevens, L. E.\rStevens, S. E.\rSun, L.\rJanssen, E.\rWuebbles, D.\rHilberg, S.D.\rTimlin, M.S.\rStoecker, L.\rWestcott, N.E.\rDobson, J.G." Pages: 103 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service' Title: 'Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 3. Climate of the Midwest U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-3' URL: http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-3-Climate_of_the_Midwest_U.S.pdf Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1411 _uuid: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 reftype: Government Document child_publication: /report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9.yaml identifier: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 uri: /reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.' Author: 'Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.' DOI: 10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1573-5184 Issue: 2 Journal: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries Pages: 363-391 Title: Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America Type of Article: journal article Volume: 27 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21122 _uuid: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c.yaml identifier: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c uri: /reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c - attrs: Author: 'Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Rissman, Adena R.' DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 Date: 2/1/ ISSN: 0301-4797 Journal: Journal of Environmental Management Keywords: Climate change impacts; Forestry; Adaptation; Multiple stressors Pages: 157-167 Title: Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests Volume: 149 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21142 _uuid: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538.yaml identifier: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 uri: /reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 - attrs: Abstract: 'Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate change is already affecting the geographic distribution of host trees and their associated insects and pathogens, with anticipated increases in pest impacts by both native and invasive pests. Although climate change will benefit many forest insects, changes in thermal conditions may disrupt evolved life history traits and cause phenological mismatches. Individually, the threats posed to forest ecosystems by invasive pests and climate change are serious. Although interactions between these two drivers and their outcomes are poorly understood and hence difficult to predict, it is clear that the cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems will be exacerbated. Here we introduce and synthesize the information in this special issue of Forestry with articles that illustrate the impacts of invasions of insects and pathogens, climate change, forest management and their interactions, as well as methods to predict, assess and mitigate these impacts. Most of these contributions were presented at the XXIV IUFRO World Congress in 2014.' Author: 'Ramsfield, T. D.; Bentz, B. J.; Faccoli, M.; Jactel, H.; Brockerhoff, E. G.' DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpw018 ISSN: 0015-752X Issue: 3 Journal: 'Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research' Pages: 245-252 Title: 'Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts' Volume: 89 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21177 _uuid: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/forestry/cpw018 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0.yaml identifier: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 uri: /reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 - attrs: Author: 'Aronson, Myla F. J.; Handel, Steven N.' DOI: 10.3375/043.031.0410 Date: 2011/10/01 ISSN: 0885-8608 Issue: 4 Journal: Natural Areas Journal Pages: 400-407 Publisher: Natural Areas Association Title: Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration Volume: 31 Year: 2011 _record_number: 21229 _uuid: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3375/043.031.0410 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e.yaml identifier: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e uri: /reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e - attrs: Author: 'Rajkovich, Nicholas B.' DOI: 10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 Journal: Michigan Journal of Sustainability Pages: 81-101 Title: 'A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio' Volume: 4 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21293 _uuid: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded.yaml identifier: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded uri: /reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: 'U.S. EPA, Office of Wastewater Management' Pages: 92 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 833-R-16-006 Title: 'Report to Congress: Combined Sewer Overflows into the Great Lakes Basin' URL: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-05/documents/gls_cso_report_to_congress_-_4-12-2016.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 21302 _uuid: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/report-congress-combined-sewer-overflows-into-great-lakes-basin href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0.yaml identifier: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 uri: /reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 - attrs: Abstract: 'In 2014, a presidential memorandum called for an assessment of the nation’s pollinators, in response to growing awareness of their economic importance and recent declines. We assess, for the first time to our knowledge, the status and trends of wild bee abundance and their potential impacts on pollination services across the United States. We develop national maps of wild bee abundance, report land-use–driven changes over time, and relate them to trends in agricultural demand for pollination. We estimate uncertainty in the findings, so future research can target the least-understood regions and topics. Our findings can also help focus conservation efforts where declines in bee abundance are most certain, especially where agricultural demand for pollination services is growing.Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation’s pollinators.' Author: 'Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Williams, Neal M.; Brittain, Claire; Isaacs, Rufus; Gibbs, Jason; Ricketts, Taylor H.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517685113 Issue: 1 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 140-145 Title: 'Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States' Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26589 _uuid: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1517685113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da.yaml identifier: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da uri: /reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da - attrs: Author: 'Changnon, Stanley' ISSN: 0019-2252 Issue: 3-4 Journal: Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science Pages: 181-190 Title: Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states URL: http://ilacadofsci.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/102-17MS2819-print.pdf Volume: 102 Year: 2009 _record_number: 21296 _uuid: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/impacts-2008-floods-on-railroads-illinois-adjacent-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318.yaml identifier: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 uri: /reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 - attrs: Abstract: 'Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.' Author: 'Mayor, Stephen J.; Guralnick, Robert P.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Otegui, Javier; Withey, John C.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Andrew, Margaret E.; Leyk, Stefan; Pearse, Ian S.; Schneider, David C.' DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z Date: 2017/05/15 ISSN: 2045-2322 Issue: 1 Journal: Scientific Reports Pages: 1902 Title: Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21164 _uuid: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed.yaml identifier: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed uri: /reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed - attrs: Abstract: 'The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.' Author: 'Mason, Lacey A.; Riseng, Catherine M.; Gronewold, Andrew D.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Jia; Clites, Anne; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; McIntyre, Peter B.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 Date: September 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 71-83 Title: Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes Type of Article: journal article Volume: 138 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21117 _uuid: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0.yaml identifier: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 uri: /reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ISU,' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: Iowa State University (ISU) Title: Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) URL: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ Year: 2017 _record_number: 21258 _uuid: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/3686a43c-a17a-47d1-9e21-ed8acdac44ab href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05.yaml identifier: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 uri: /reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Editor: 'Shifley, Stephen R.; Moser, W. Keith' ISBN: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-151 Number of Pages: 388 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Publisher: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Title: Future Forests of the Northern United States URL: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/50448 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21243 _uuid: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /book/future-forests-northern-united-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5.yaml identifier: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 uri: /reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 - attrs: Abstract: 'OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99(th) percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.' Author: "Gronlund, Carina J.; Berrocal, Veronica J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O'Neill, Marie S." DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042 Date: 11/25 ISSN: "0013-9351\r1096-0953" Journal: Environmental Research Name of Database: PMC Pages: 449-461 Title: 'Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007' Volume: 136 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21133 _uuid: 9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e.yaml identifier: 9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e uri: /reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Andresen, Jeff; Steve Hilberg; Ken Kunkel' Institution: Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center Pages: 18 Place Published: 'Ann Arbor, MI' Title: Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report URL: http://glisa.umich.edu/media/files/NCA/MTIT_Historical.pdf Year: 2012 _record_number: 21250 _uuid: 9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/historical-climate-climate-trends-midwestern-usa-us-national-climate-assessment-midwest-technical-input-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07.yaml identifier: 9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 uri: /reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 - attrs: Abstract: 'Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.' Author: 'Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1017352108 Date: 'July 26, 2011' Issue: 30 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 12337-12342 Title: Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk Volume: 108 Year: 2011 _record_number: 21166 _uuid: a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1017352108 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550.yaml identifier: a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 uri: /reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Changes in temperature, CO(2), and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 yr present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO(2), and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO(2), temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO(2) contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency (WUE); however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO(2), and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population.' Alternate Journal: Agron J Author: "Hatfield, J. L.\rBoote, K. J.\rKimball, B. A.\rZiska, L. H.\rIzaurralde, R. C.\rOrt, D.\rThomson, A. M.\rWolfe, D." Author Address: 'Hatfield, JL; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Univ Florida, Agron Dep, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; USDA ARS, US Arid Land Agr Res Ctr, Maricopa, AZ 85138 USA; USDA, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA; Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; Univ Illinois, USDA ARS, Photosynth Res Unit, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; Cornell Univ, Dep Hort, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA' DOI: 10.2134/agronj2010.0303 Date: Mar-Apr ISSN: 1435-0645 Issue: 2 Journal: Agronomy Journal Keywords: air co2 enrichment; atmospheric carbon-dioxide; water-use efficiency; phaseolus-vulgaris l.; solanum-tuberosum l.; rottboellia-cochinchinensis interference; endosperm cell-division; high-temperature stress; soybean glycine-max; long-term exposure Language: English Notes: 740XZ; Times Cited:5; Cited References Count:225 Pages: 351-370 Title: 'Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production' Volume: 103 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 16: Northeast FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL","RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL","Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 361 _uuid: a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2134/agronj2010.0303 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292.yaml identifier: a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 uri: /reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 231-256 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21566 _uuid: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89.yaml identifier: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 uri: /reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 - attrs: Author: 'Ash, Jeremy D.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Waller, Donald M.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13429 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 3 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: climate analog; forest understory; functional traits; geographic centroid; migratory lag Pages: 1305-1315 Title: Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21187 _uuid: a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13429 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634.yaml identifier: a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 uri: /reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Ducks Unlimited,' Institution: Ducks Unlimited Great Lakes/Atlantic Region Pages: 2 Place Published: 'Ann Arbor, MI' Title: Missouri state conservation report URL: http://www.ducks.org/missouri/missouri-conservation-projects Year: 2016 _record_number: 21301 _uuid: a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/missouri-state-conservation-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3.yaml identifier: a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 uri: /reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Hellmann, Jessica J.\rByers, James E.\rBierwagen, Britta G.\rDukes, Jeffrey S." DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x ISSN: 1523-1739 Issue: 3 Journal: Conservation Biology Keywords: Climate change Pages: 534-543 Title: Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x/pdf Volume: 22 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 17: Southeast and Caribbean FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 705 _uuid: a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e.yaml identifier: a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e uri: /reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e - attrs: Author: 'Tobin, Patrick C.; Nagarkatti, Sudha; Loeb, Greg; Saunders, Michael C.' DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 5 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: climate change; diapause; insect population dynamics; phenology; photoperiod; seasonality; voltinism Pages: 951-957 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Title: Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species Volume: 14 Year: 2008 _record_number: 21190 _uuid: a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf.yaml identifier: a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf uri: /reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf - attrs: Abstract: 'Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.' Author: 'Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13617 Issue: 7 Journal: Global Change Biology Pages: 2687-2704 Title: The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26583 _uuid: a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13617 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6.yaml identifier: a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6 uri: /reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6