--- - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ISU,' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: Iowa State University (ISU) Title: 'STRIPS (Science-based Trials of Rowcrops Integrated with Prairie Strips) Project [web site]' URL: https://www.nrem.iastate.edu/research/STRIPS/ Year: 2018 _record_number: 26578 _uuid: 9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/b897bd94-de67-44c5-95fc-bc33cb05311b href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8.yaml identifier: 9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 uri: /reference/9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.' Author: Steve Vavrus; Michael Notaro; Azar Zarrin DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Monthly Weather Review Keywords: 'Inland seas/lakes,Lake effects,Snowfall,Regional models' Pages: 148-165 Title: The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4 Volume: 141 Year: 2013 _record_number: 20862 _uuid: 91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5.yaml identifier: 91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 uri: /reference/91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 - attrs: Abstract: 'Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield ( Δ Y = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half ( Δ Y = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter ( Δ Y = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.' Author: 'Deryng, Delphine; Declan Conway; Navin Ramankutty; Jeff Price; Rachel Warren' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 3 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 034011 Title: Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _record_number: 26566 _uuid: 92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797.yaml identifier: 92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 uri: /reference/92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'City of Chicago,' Pages: 57 Title: 'City of Chicago Climate Action Plan: Our City. Our Future' URL: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/finalreport/CCAPREPORTFINALv2.pdf Volume: 2008 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 11: Urban Systems FINAL","Ch. 28: Adaptation FINAL"]' _record_number: 242 _uuid: 9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/citychicago-cap-2008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3.yaml identifier: 9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 uri: /reference/9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 - attrs: Author: 'Hamer, Sarah A.; Hickling, Graham J.; Walker, Edward D.; Tsao, Jean I.' DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2014.06.003 Date: 2014/10/01/ ISSN: 1567-1348 Journal: 'Infection, Genetics and Evolution' Keywords: American Midwest Pages: 531-542 Title: Increased diversity of zoonotic pathogens and Borrelia burgdorferi strains in established versus incipient Ixodes scapularis populations across the Midwestern United States Volume: 27 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21147 _uuid: 93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.meegid.2014.06.003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372.yaml identifier: 93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 uri: /reference/93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "Bennett, T.M. Bull\rMaynard, Nancy G.\rCochran, Patricia\rGough, Robert\rLynn, Kathy\rMaldonado, Julie\rVoggesser, Garrit\rWotkyns, Susan\rCozzetto, Karen" Book Title: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J09G5JR1 Editor: 'Melillo, Jerry M.; Richmond, Terese (T.C.); Yohe, Gary W.' Pages: 297-317 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Reviewer: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab Title: 'Ch. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources' URL: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/indigenous-peoples Year: 2014 _chapter: '["Ch. 0: About this Report FINAL"]' _record_number: 4749 _uuid: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab.yaml identifier: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab uri: /reference/93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Hall, Kimberly R.; Root, Terry L.' Book Title: 'Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future' Editor: 'Dietz, Thomas; Bidwell, David' ISBN: 9781611860122 Pages: 63-96 Publisher: Michigan State University Press Title: Climate change and biodiversity in the Great Lakes Region from "fingerprints" of change to helping safeguard species Year: 2012 _record_number: 26571 _uuid: 94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/4bcd4f8e-0120-4217-83a8-514199e67303 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1.yaml identifier: 94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 uri: /reference/94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 - attrs: Abstract: 'Aedes ( Stegomyia ) aegypti (L.) and Aedes ( Stegomyia ) albopictus (Skuse) transmit arboviruses that are increasing threats to human health in the Americas, particularly dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Epidemics of the associated arboviral diseases have been limited to South and Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean in the Western Hemisphere, with only minor localized outbreaks in the United States. Nevertheless, accurate and up-to-date information for the geographical ranges of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States is urgently needed to guide surveillance and enhance control capacity for these mosquitoes. We compiled county records for presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States from 1995-2016, presented here in map format. Records were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET database, VectorMap, the published literature, and a survey of mosquito control agencies, university researchers, and state and local health departments. Between January 1995 and March 2016, 183 counties from 26 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. aegypti , and 1,241 counties from 40 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. albopictus . During the same time period, Ae. aegypti was collected in 3 or more years from 94 counties from 14 states and the District of Columbia, and Ae. albopictus was collected during 3 or more years from 514 counties in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Our findings underscore the need for systematic surveillance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States and delineate areas with risk for the transmission of these introduced arboviruses.' Author: 'Hahn, Micah B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Eisen, Lars; Boegler, Karen A.; Moore, Chester G.; McAllister, Janet; Savage, Harry M.; Mutebi, John-Paul' DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjw072 ISSN: 0022-2585 Issue: 5 Journal: Journal of Medical Entomology Pages: 1169-1175 Title: 'Reported distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae)' Volume: 53 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21178 _uuid: 9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/jme/tjw072 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7.yaml identifier: 9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 uri: /reference/9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'DuPont, Dale K.' Publisher: WorkBoat.com Title: High Water Closes River Near St. Louis URL: https://www.workboat.com/archive/high-water-closes-river-near-st-louis/ Year: 2013 _record_number: 21318 _uuid: 9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/b9e426a2-3058-4840-a796-b27bb6701700 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1.yaml identifier: 9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 uri: /reference/9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 - attrs: Author: 'Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan' DOI: 10.1002/2013JD019994 ISSN: 2169-8996 Issue: 22 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Keywords: dynamical downscaling; CMIP5; Great Plains; WRF; extreme rainfall events; model evaluation; 0550 Model verification and validation; 1626 Global climate models; 1817 Extreme events; 1854 Precipitation; 3355 Regional modeling Pages: '12,522-12,536' Title: Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models Volume: 118 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21105 _uuid: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013JD019994 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a.yaml identifier: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a uri: /reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a - attrs: Author: 'Ludsin, Stuart A.; Kershner, Mark W.; Blocksom, Karen A.; Knight, Roger L.; Stein, Roy A.' DOI: '10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[0731:LADILE]2.0.CO;2' ISSN: 1939-5582 Issue: 3 Journal: Ecological Applications Keywords: detrended correspondence analysis; eutrophication; Great Lakes; Lake Erie; oligotrophication; phosphorus abatement; productivity; resilience; species diversity; species richness; species turnover; succession Pages: 731-746 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: 'Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation' Volume: 11 Year: 2001 _record_number: 21222 _uuid: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011%5B0731:LADILE%5D2.0.CO;2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4.yaml identifier: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 uri: /reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 - attrs: .reference_type: 32 Author: "Kunkel, K. E.\rStevens, L. E.\rStevens, S. E.\rSun, L.\rJanssen, E.\rWuebbles, D.\rHilberg, S.D.\rTimlin, M.S.\rStoecker, L.\rWestcott, N.E.\rDobson, J.G." Pages: 103 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service' Title: 'Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 3. Climate of the Midwest U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-3' URL: http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-3-Climate_of_the_Midwest_U.S.pdf Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1411 _uuid: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 reftype: Government Document child_publication: /report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9.yaml identifier: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 uri: /reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.' Author: 'Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.' DOI: 10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1573-5184 Issue: 2 Journal: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries Pages: 363-391 Title: Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America Type of Article: journal article Volume: 27 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21122 _uuid: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c.yaml identifier: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c uri: /reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c - attrs: Author: 'Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Rissman, Adena R.' DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 Date: 2/1/ ISSN: 0301-4797 Journal: Journal of Environmental Management Keywords: Climate change impacts; Forestry; Adaptation; Multiple stressors Pages: 157-167 Title: Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests Volume: 149 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21142 _uuid: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538.yaml identifier: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 uri: /reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 - attrs: Abstract: 'Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate change is already affecting the geographic distribution of host trees and their associated insects and pathogens, with anticipated increases in pest impacts by both native and invasive pests. Although climate change will benefit many forest insects, changes in thermal conditions may disrupt evolved life history traits and cause phenological mismatches. Individually, the threats posed to forest ecosystems by invasive pests and climate change are serious. Although interactions between these two drivers and their outcomes are poorly understood and hence difficult to predict, it is clear that the cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems will be exacerbated. Here we introduce and synthesize the information in this special issue of Forestry with articles that illustrate the impacts of invasions of insects and pathogens, climate change, forest management and their interactions, as well as methods to predict, assess and mitigate these impacts. Most of these contributions were presented at the XXIV IUFRO World Congress in 2014.' Author: 'Ramsfield, T. D.; Bentz, B. J.; Faccoli, M.; Jactel, H.; Brockerhoff, E. G.' DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpw018 ISSN: 0015-752X Issue: 3 Journal: 'Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research' Pages: 245-252 Title: 'Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts' Volume: 89 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21177 _uuid: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/forestry/cpw018 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0.yaml identifier: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 uri: /reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 - attrs: Author: 'Aronson, Myla F. J.; Handel, Steven N.' DOI: 10.3375/043.031.0410 Date: 2011/10/01 ISSN: 0885-8608 Issue: 4 Journal: Natural Areas Journal Pages: 400-407 Publisher: Natural Areas Association Title: Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration Volume: 31 Year: 2011 _record_number: 21229 _uuid: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3375/043.031.0410 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e.yaml identifier: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e uri: /reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e - attrs: Author: 'Rajkovich, Nicholas B.' DOI: 10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 Journal: Michigan Journal of Sustainability Pages: 81-101 Title: 'A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio' Volume: 4 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21293 _uuid: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded.yaml identifier: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded uri: /reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: 'U.S. EPA, Office of Wastewater Management' Pages: 92 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 833-R-16-006 Title: 'Report to Congress: Combined Sewer Overflows into the Great Lakes Basin' URL: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-05/documents/gls_cso_report_to_congress_-_4-12-2016.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 21302 _uuid: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/report-congress-combined-sewer-overflows-into-great-lakes-basin href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0.yaml identifier: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 uri: /reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 - attrs: Abstract: 'In 2014, a presidential memorandum called for an assessment of the nation’s pollinators, in response to growing awareness of their economic importance and recent declines. We assess, for the first time to our knowledge, the status and trends of wild bee abundance and their potential impacts on pollination services across the United States. We develop national maps of wild bee abundance, report land-use–driven changes over time, and relate them to trends in agricultural demand for pollination. We estimate uncertainty in the findings, so future research can target the least-understood regions and topics. Our findings can also help focus conservation efforts where declines in bee abundance are most certain, especially where agricultural demand for pollination services is growing.Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation’s pollinators.' Author: 'Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Williams, Neal M.; Brittain, Claire; Isaacs, Rufus; Gibbs, Jason; Ricketts, Taylor H.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517685113 Issue: 1 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 140-145 Title: 'Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States' Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26589 _uuid: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1517685113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da.yaml identifier: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da uri: /reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da - attrs: Author: 'Changnon, Stanley' ISSN: 0019-2252 Issue: 3-4 Journal: Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science Pages: 181-190 Title: Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states URL: http://ilacadofsci.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/102-17MS2819-print.pdf Volume: 102 Year: 2009 _record_number: 21296 _uuid: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/impacts-2008-floods-on-railroads-illinois-adjacent-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318.yaml identifier: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 uri: /reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 - attrs: Abstract: 'Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.' Author: 'Mayor, Stephen J.; Guralnick, Robert P.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Otegui, Javier; Withey, John C.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Andrew, Margaret E.; Leyk, Stefan; Pearse, Ian S.; Schneider, David C.' DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z Date: 2017/05/15 ISSN: 2045-2322 Issue: 1 Journal: Scientific Reports Pages: 1902 Title: Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21164 _uuid: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed.yaml identifier: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed uri: /reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed - attrs: Abstract: 'The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.' Author: 'Mason, Lacey A.; Riseng, Catherine M.; Gronewold, Andrew D.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Jia; Clites, Anne; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; McIntyre, Peter B.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 Date: September 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 71-83 Title: Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes Type of Article: journal article Volume: 138 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21117 _uuid: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0.yaml identifier: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 uri: /reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ISU,' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: Iowa State University (ISU) Title: Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) URL: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ Year: 2017 _record_number: 21258 _uuid: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/3686a43c-a17a-47d1-9e21-ed8acdac44ab href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05.yaml identifier: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 uri: /reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Editor: 'Shifley, Stephen R.; Moser, W. Keith' ISBN: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-151 Number of Pages: 388 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Publisher: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Title: Future Forests of the Northern United States URL: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/50448 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21243 _uuid: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /book/future-forests-northern-united-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5.yaml identifier: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 uri: /reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5