--- - attrs: Abstract: 'This study examined the relative importance of climate change and drinking-water treatment for gastrointestinal illness incidence in children (age <5 years) from period 2046–2065 compared to 1991–2010. The northern Wisconsin (USA) study focused on municipalities distributing untreated groundwater. A time-series analysis first quantified the observed (1991–2010) precipitation and gastrointestinal illness associations after controlling for seasonality and temporal trends. Precipitation likely transported pathogens into drinking-water sources or into leaking water-distribution networks. Building on observed relationships, the second analysis projected how climate change and drinking-water treatment installation may alter gastrointestinal illness incidence. Future precipitation values were modeled by 13 global climate models and three greenhouse-gas emissions levels. The second analysis was rerun using three pathways: (1) only climate change, (2) climate change and the same slow pace of treatment installation observed over 1991–2010, and (3) climate change and the rapid rate of installation observed over 2011–2016. The results illustrate the risks that climate change presents to small rural groundwater municipalities without drinking water treatment. Climate-change-related seasonal precipitation changes will marginally increase the gastrointestinal illness incidence rate (mean: ∼1.5%, range: −3.6–4.3%). A slow pace of treatment installation somewhat decreased precipitation-associated gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼3.0%, range: 0.2–7.8%) in spite of climate change. The rapid treatment installation rate largely decreases the gastrointestinal illness incidence (mean: ∼82.0%, range: 82.0–83.0%).' Author: 'Uejio, Christopher K.; Christenson, Megan; Moran, Colleen; Gorelick, Mark' DOI: 10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1435-0157 Issue: 4 Journal: Hydrogeology Journal Pages: 969-979 Title: 'Drinking-water treatment, climate change, and childhood gastrointestinal illness projections for northern Wisconsin (USA) communities drinking untreated groundwater' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 25 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21114 _uuid: 851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10040-016-1521-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa.yaml identifier: 851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa uri: /reference/851e275f-5e31-42ef-93e5-eed46db465aa - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'Hurburgh, Charles' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: 'Iowa State University, Extension and Outreach' Title: Wet Weather Creates Challenges for Harvest URL: https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2016/09/wet-weather-creates-challenges-harvest Year: 2016 _record_number: 21257 _uuid: 858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/615c1ba0-5040-4eb4-8c2c-cd4a9eac0196 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067.yaml identifier: 858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067 uri: /reference/858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067 - attrs: Abstract: "The Metropolitan St. Louis Sewer District (MSD) is a regional Special Sewer District that provides Wastewater and Stormwater services to the City of St. Louis and most of St. Louis County, Missouri. The service area includes a Combined Sewer System (CSS) in the City and the older portions of the County. In 2011, MSD completed a Combined Sewer Overflow Long-Term Control Plan (LTCP), which was formalized in a Consent Decree (CD) with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in April, 2012. MSD’s Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) control plan includes a $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program in the areas of the City of St. Louis that flow toward the Mississippi River CSOs. MSD spent five years conducting a $3 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Pilot Program, culminating in a CD required final report completed in December 2015. The report explains what work was completed in the GI Pilot Program and the results, and outlines MSD’s plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program control measure. This presentation will briefly review the GI Pilot Program, with the main focus to discuss the findings of the GI Pilot Program and the plan for full-implementation of the $100 million CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. Included will be major components of the program, the expected reduction in CSO volume and use of an adaptive management approach to manage the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program through 2034.

Implementation of green infrastructure for CSO volume reduction is one of many ways green infrastructure can be strategized for use in urban areas. As a separate entity from the City of St. Louis, MSD's plan highlights the important role that collaboration must have in the implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program. The plan for full implementation of the CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program was developed with critical consideration of public-private partnerships, support of planned use areas and encouraging development and redevelopment in the City of St. Louis. Found to be effective in the GI Pilot Program, these same strategies are applicable to other communities planning and implementing green infrastructure programs." Author: 'Norton, Melantha D.; Moore, Gary T.' DOI: 10.2175/193864717821494853 Date: // Issue: 2 Journal: Proceedings of the Water Environment Federation Keywords: Adaptive Management; Public-Private Partnerships; Consent Decree; Combined Sewer Overflows; Long Term Control Plan; Green Infrastructure Pages: 61-81 Title: St. Louis MSD CSO Volume Reduction Green Infrastructure Program Volume: 2017 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26600 _uuid: 865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2175/193864717821494853 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4.yaml identifier: 865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4 uri: /reference/865ece02-421c-41f4-b0bf-1114059d76b4 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Pan, Z.\rArritt, R.W.\rTakle, E.S.\rGutowski, W.J., Jr.\rAnderson, C.J.\rSegal, M." DOI: 10.1029/2004GL020528 ISSN: 0094-8276 Issue: 17 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: L17109 Title: Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a “warming hole” URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL020528/pdf Volume: 31 Year: 2004 _chapter: '["Appendix 4: FAQs FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2413 _uuid: 87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2004GL020528 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a.yaml identifier: 87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a uri: /reference/87d06d1e-d4d1-4e74-aa68-141d307b955a - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'MDNR,' Institution: Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Pages: 114 Place Published: 'St. Paul, MN' Title: Natural Wild Rice in Minnesota URL: http://files.dnr.state.mn.us/fish_wildlife/wildlife/shallowlakes/natural-wild-rice-in-minnesota.pdf Year: 2008 _record_number: 21260 _uuid: 88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/mndnr-natwildrice-2008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5.yaml identifier: 88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5 uri: /reference/88a55c1a-6467-4bcf-be31-338b2e0575e5 - attrs: Author: 'Forbes, Donald L.; Gavin K. Manson; Richard Chagnon; Steven M. Solomon; Joost J. van der Sanden; Tracy L. Lynds' Conference Name: 'Ice in the Environment: Proceedings of the 16th IAHR International Symposium on Ice' Date: December 2-6 Pages: 344-351 Title: Nearshore ice and climate change in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Year of Conference: 2002 _record_number: 26568 _uuid: 8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62 reftype: Conference Proceedings child_publication: /generic/e121f1e3-22bc-4e6a-9b40-a990eb216a6b href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62.yaml identifier: 8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62 uri: /reference/8949152f-8cbe-436d-825f-5558ff849a62 - attrs: Abstract: 'Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.' Author: 'Woodruff, Sierra C.; Stults, Missy' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3012 Date: 08//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 796-802 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21160 _uuid: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8.yaml identifier: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 uri: /reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change is expected to alter species distributions and habitat suitability across the globe. Understanding these shifting distributions is critical for adaptive resource management. The role of temperature in fish habitat and energetics is well established and can be used to evaluate climate change effects on habitat distributions and food web interactions. Lake Superior water temperatures are rising rapidly in response to climate change and this is likely influencing species distributions and interactions. We use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that captures temperature changes in Lake Superior over the last 3 decades to investigate shifts in habitat size and duration of preferred temperatures for four different fishes. We evaluated habitat changes in two native lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) ecotypes, siscowet and lean lake trout, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), and walleye (Sander vitreus). Between 1979 and 2006, days with available preferred thermal habitat increased at a mean rate of 6, 7, and 5 days per decade for lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye, respectively. Siscowet lake trout lost 3 days per decade. Consequently, preferred habitat spatial extents increased at a rate of 579, 495 and 419 km2 per year for the lean lake trout, Chinook salmon, and walleye while siscowet lost 161 km2 per year during the modeled period. Habitat increases could lead to increased growth and production for three of the four fishes. Consequently, greater habitat overlap may intensify interguild competition and food web interactions. Loss of cold-water habitat for siscowet, having the coldest thermal preference, could forecast potential changes from continued warming. Additionally, continued warming may render more suitable conditions for some invasive species.' Author: 'Cline, Timothy J.; Bennington, Val; Kitchell, James F.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0062279 Issue: 4 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e62279 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: Climate change expands the spatial extent and duration of preferred thermal habitat for Lake Superior fishes Volume: 8 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21212 _uuid: 8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0062279 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962.yaml identifier: 8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962 uri: /reference/8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Brandt, Leslie; He, Hong; Iverson, Louis; Thompson, Frank R.; Butler, Patricia; Handler, Stephen; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Albrecht, Matthew; Blume-Weaver, Richard; Deizman, Paul; DePuy, John; Dijak, William D.; Dinkel, Gary; Fei, Songlin; Jones-Farrand, D. Todd; Leahy, Michael; Matthews, Stephen; Nelson, Paul; Oberle, Brad; Perez, Judi; Peters, Matthew; Prasad, Anantha; Schneiderman, Jeffrey E.; Shuey, John; Smith, Adam B.; Studyvin, Charles; Tirpak, John M.; Walk, Jeffery W.; Wang, Wen J.; Watts, Laura; Weigel, Dale; Westin, Steve' Institution: USDA Forest Service Pages: 254 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Series Volume: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-124 Title: 'Central Hardwoods Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project' URL: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45430 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21263 _uuid: 8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/central-hardwoods-ecosystem-vulnerability-assessment-synthesis-report-central-hardwoods-climate-change-response-framework-project href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5.yaml identifier: 8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5 uri: /reference/8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Handler, Stephen; Duveneck, Matthew J.; Iverson, Louis; Peters, Emily; Scheller, Robert M.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; Janowiak, Maria; Shannon, P. Danielle; Swanston, Chris; Eagle, Amy Clark; Cohen, Joshua G.; Corner, Rich; Reich, Peter B.; Baker, Tim; Chhin, Sophan; Clark, Eric; Fehringer, David; Fosgitt, Jon; Gries, James; Hall, Christine; Hall, Kimberly R.; Heyd, Robert; Hoving, Christopher L.; Ibáñez, Ines; Kuhr, Don; Matthews, Stephen; Muladore, Jennifer; Nadelhoffer, Knute; Neumann, David; Peters, Matthew; Prasad, Anantha; Sands, Matt; Swaty, Randy; Wonch, Leiloni; Daley, Jad; Davenport, Mae; Emery, Marla R.; Johnson, Gary; Johnson, Lucinda; Neitzel, David; Rissman, Adena; Rittenhouse, Chadwick; Ziel, Robert' Institution: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Pages: 229 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Series Volume: General Technical Report NRS-129 Title: 'Michigan Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project' URL: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/45688 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21268 _uuid: 8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/michigan-forest-ecosystem-vulnerability-assessment-synthesis-report-northwoods-climate-change-response-framework-project href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d.yaml identifier: 8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d uri: /reference/8c05015c-4269-4b25-86e0-2d45df89613d - attrs: Author: 'Whitfield, Geoffrey P.; Meehan, Leslie A.; Maizlish, Neil; Wendel, Arthur M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.jth.2016.06.009 Date: 2017/06/01/ ISSN: 2214-1405 Journal: Journal of Transport & Health Pages: 172-181 Title: 'The integrated transport and health impact modeling tool in Nashville, Tennessee, USA: Implementation steps and lessons learned' Volume: 5 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21146 _uuid: 8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jth.2016.06.009 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827.yaml identifier: 8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827 uri: /reference/8cec4760-e2d5-4cf1-b0b4-7c106ee0d827 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Minnesota Department of Health,' Institution: Minnesota Department of Health Pages: 100 Place Published: 'St. Paul, MN' Title: 'Minnesota Climate and Health Profile Report 2015: An Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Health & Well-Being of Minnesotans' URL: http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/climatechange/docs/mnprofile2015.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 21292 _uuid: 8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea reftype: Report child_publication: /report/minnesota-climate-health-profile-report-2015-an-assessment-climate-change-impacts-on-health-well-being-minnesotans href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea.yaml identifier: 8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea uri: /reference/8cf8bbe8-0eac-4ec0-abb3-d84b483606ea - attrs: Abstract: 'A method for projecting the water levels of the Laurentian Great Lakes under scenarios of human-caused climate change, used almost to the exclusion of other methods in the past, relies very heavily on the large basin runoff model (LBRM) as a component for determining the water budget for the lake system. This model uses near-surface air temperature as a primary predictor of evapotranspiration (ET); as in previous published work, it is shown here that the model’s very high sensitivity to temperature causes it to overestimate ET in a way that is greatly at variance with the fundamental principle of conservation of energy at the land surface. The traditional formulation is characterized here as being equivalent to having several suns in the virtual sky created by LBRM. More physically based methods show, relative to the traditional method, often astoundingly less potential ET and less ET, more runoff from the land and net basin supply for the lake basins, and higher lake water levels in the future. Using various methods of estimating the statistical significance, it is found that, at minimum, these discrepancies in results are significant at the 99.998% level. The lesson for the larger climate impact community is to use caution about whether an impact is forced directly by air temperature itself or is significantly forced by season or latitude independently of temperature. The results here apply only to the water levels of the Great Lakes and the hydrology of its basin and do not affect larger questions of climate change.' Author: 'Lofgren, Brent M.; Jonathan Rouhana' DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-15-0220.1 Issue: 8 Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology Keywords: 'Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Atmosphere-land interaction,Climate change,Energy budget/balance,Hydrometeorology,Models and modeling,Hydrologic models,Land surface model' Pages: 2209-2223 Title: Physically plausible methods for projecting changes in Great Lakes water levels under climate change scenarios Volume: 17 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21205 _uuid: 8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jhm-d-15-0220.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65.yaml identifier: 8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65 uri: /reference/8d1feebf-5a50-4165-9ce0-cc99fe88ef65 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'EIA,' Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Energy Information Administration Title: 'U.S. States: Table C9. Electric Power Sector Consumption Estimates, 2016 [web site]' URL: https://www.eia.gov/state/seds/data.php?incfile=/state/seds/sep_sum/html/sum_btu_eu.html&sid=US Year: 2016 _record_number: 26692 _uuid: 8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/62be0bae-823d-429c-9e2d-4b4155ce5868 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b.yaml identifier: 8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b uri: /reference/8d878175-dc50-46a6-a1da-2e73c45b1b2b - attrs: Author: 'Phadke, Roopali; Manning, Christie; Burlager, Samantha' DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.005 Date: 2015/01/01/ ISSN: 2212-0963 Journal: Climate Risk Management Keywords: Boundary organizations; Citizen participation; Climate adaptation; Environmental justice; Public Engagement; Community-based research Pages: 62-76 Title: 'Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning' Volume: 9 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21131 _uuid: 8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.crm.2015.06.005 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961.yaml identifier: 8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961 uri: /reference/8f8f2c96-6f09-4686-b2f6-2b75b4059961 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Swanston, Chris; Janowiak, Maria; Iverson, Louis; Parker, Linda; Mladenoff, David; Brandt, Leslie; Butler, Patricia; St. Pierre, Matt; Prasad, Anantha; Matthews, Stephen; Peters, Matthew; Higgins, Dale; Dorland, Avery' Institution: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Pages: 142 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Series Volume: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-82 Title: 'Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Climate Change Response Framework Project in Northern Wisconsin' URL: https://www.fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/gtr/gtr_nrs82.pdf Year: 2011 _record_number: 21277 _uuid: 8f9b5614-e7c7-480b-acc8-962a89effaa0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/ecosystem-vulnerability-assessment-synthesis-report-climate-change-response-framework-project-northern-wisconsin href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f9b5614-e7c7-480b-acc8-962a89effaa0.yaml identifier: 8f9b5614-e7c7-480b-acc8-962a89effaa0 uri: /reference/8f9b5614-e7c7-480b-acc8-962a89effaa0 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ISU,' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: Iowa State University (ISU) Title: 'STRIPS (Science-based Trials of Rowcrops Integrated with Prairie Strips) Project [web site]' URL: https://www.nrem.iastate.edu/research/STRIPS/ Year: 2018 _record_number: 26578 _uuid: 9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/b897bd94-de67-44c5-95fc-bc33cb05311b href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8.yaml identifier: 9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 uri: /reference/9162112c-438b-45d4-8d45-42ee4805b8f8 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'A 20-km regional climate model, the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (ICTP RegCM4), is employed to investigate heavy lake-effect snowfall (HLES) over the Great Lakes Basin and the role of ice cover in regulating these events. When coupled to a lake model and driven with atmospheric reanalysis data between 1976 and 2002, RegCM4 reproduces the major characteristics of HLES. The influence of lake ice cover on HLES is investigated through 10 case studies (2 per Great Lake), in which a simulated heavy lake-effect event is compared with a companion simulation having 100% ice cover imposed on one or all of the Great Lakes. These experiments quantify the impact of ice cover on downstream snowfall and demonstrate that Lake Superior has the strongest, most widespread influence on heavy snowfall and Lake Ontario the least. Ice cover strongly affects a wide range of atmospheric variables above and downstream of lakes during HLES, including snowfall, surface energy fluxes, wind speed, temperature, moisture, clouds, and air pressure. Averaged among the 10 events, complete ice coverage causes major reductions in lake-effect snowfall (>80%) and turbulent heat fluxes over the lakes (>90%), less low cloudiness, lower temperatures, and higher air pressure. Another important consequence is a consistent weakening (30%–40%) of lower-tropospheric winds over the lakes when completely frozen. This momentum reduction further decreases over-lake evaporation and weakens downstream wind convergence, thus mitigating lake-effect snowfall. This finding suggests a secondary, dynamical mechanism by which ice cover affects downstream snowfall during HLES events, in addition to the more widely recognized thermodynamic influence.' Author: Steve Vavrus; Michael Notaro; Azar Zarrin DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Monthly Weather Review Keywords: 'Inland seas/lakes,Lake effects,Snowfall,Regional models' Pages: 148-165 Title: The role of ice cover in heavy lake-effect snowstorms over the Great Lakes Basin as simulated by RegCM4 Volume: 141 Year: 2013 _record_number: 20862 _uuid: 91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00107.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5.yaml identifier: 91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 uri: /reference/91bac619-30ec-4096-ad89-2c2db0e992f5 - attrs: Abstract: 'Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO 2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO 2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield ( Δ Y = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus − 7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half ( Δ Y = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter ( Δ Y = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO 2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.' Author: 'Deryng, Delphine; Declan Conway; Navin Ramankutty; Jeff Price; Rachel Warren' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 3 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 034011 Title: Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _record_number: 26566 _uuid: 92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797.yaml identifier: 92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 uri: /reference/92556cc9-7e23-42a3-8c27-6bbd88726797 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'City of Chicago,' Pages: 57 Title: 'City of Chicago Climate Action Plan: Our City. Our Future' URL: http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/finalreport/CCAPREPORTFINALv2.pdf Volume: 2008 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 11: Urban Systems FINAL","Ch. 28: Adaptation FINAL"]' _record_number: 242 _uuid: 9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/citychicago-cap-2008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3.yaml identifier: 9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 uri: /reference/9282c7de-31fd-4123-96ca-69df571b1cd3 - attrs: Author: 'Hamer, Sarah A.; Hickling, Graham J.; Walker, Edward D.; Tsao, Jean I.' DOI: 10.1016/j.meegid.2014.06.003 Date: 2014/10/01/ ISSN: 1567-1348 Journal: 'Infection, Genetics and Evolution' Keywords: American Midwest Pages: 531-542 Title: Increased diversity of zoonotic pathogens and Borrelia burgdorferi strains in established versus incipient Ixodes scapularis populations across the Midwestern United States Volume: 27 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21147 _uuid: 93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.meegid.2014.06.003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372.yaml identifier: 93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 uri: /reference/93155d7a-31a3-4d21-9d39-f438ecc7d372 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "Bennett, T.M. Bull\rMaynard, Nancy G.\rCochran, Patricia\rGough, Robert\rLynn, Kathy\rMaldonado, Julie\rVoggesser, Garrit\rWotkyns, Susan\rCozzetto, Karen" Book Title: 'Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J09G5JR1 Editor: 'Melillo, Jerry M.; Richmond, Terese (T.C.); Yohe, Gary W.' Pages: 297-317 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Reviewer: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab Title: 'Ch. 12: Indigenous peoples, lands, and resources' URL: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/indigenous-peoples Year: 2014 _chapter: '["Ch. 0: About this Report FINAL"]' _record_number: 4749 _uuid: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/nca3/chapter/tribal-indigenous-native-lands-resources href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab.yaml identifier: 93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab uri: /reference/93a1158a-17b9-43b9-9743-111f9c7ab8ab - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Hall, Kimberly R.; Root, Terry L.' Book Title: 'Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Navigating an Uncertain Future' Editor: 'Dietz, Thomas; Bidwell, David' ISBN: 9781611860122 Pages: 63-96 Publisher: Michigan State University Press Title: Climate change and biodiversity in the Great Lakes Region from "fingerprints" of change to helping safeguard species Year: 2012 _record_number: 26571 _uuid: 94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/4bcd4f8e-0120-4217-83a8-514199e67303 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1.yaml identifier: 94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 uri: /reference/94291262-9164-4b7b-899a-df09aa1063e1 - attrs: Abstract: 'Aedes ( Stegomyia ) aegypti (L.) and Aedes ( Stegomyia ) albopictus (Skuse) transmit arboviruses that are increasing threats to human health in the Americas, particularly dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Epidemics of the associated arboviral diseases have been limited to South and Central America, Mexico, and the Caribbean in the Western Hemisphere, with only minor localized outbreaks in the United States. Nevertheless, accurate and up-to-date information for the geographical ranges of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States is urgently needed to guide surveillance and enhance control capacity for these mosquitoes. We compiled county records for presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States from 1995-2016, presented here in map format. Records were derived from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET database, VectorMap, the published literature, and a survey of mosquito control agencies, university researchers, and state and local health departments. Between January 1995 and March 2016, 183 counties from 26 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. aegypti , and 1,241 counties from 40 states and the District of Columbia reported occurrence of Ae. albopictus . During the same time period, Ae. aegypti was collected in 3 or more years from 94 counties from 14 states and the District of Columbia, and Ae. albopictus was collected during 3 or more years from 514 counties in 34 states and the District of Columbia. Our findings underscore the need for systematic surveillance of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in the United States and delineate areas with risk for the transmission of these introduced arboviruses.' Author: 'Hahn, Micah B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Eisen, Lars; Boegler, Karen A.; Moore, Chester G.; McAllister, Janet; Savage, Harry M.; Mutebi, John-Paul' DOI: 10.1093/jme/tjw072 ISSN: 0022-2585 Issue: 5 Journal: Journal of Medical Entomology Pages: 1169-1175 Title: 'Reported distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in the United States, 1995-2016 (Diptera: Culicidae)' Volume: 53 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21178 _uuid: 9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/jme/tjw072 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7.yaml identifier: 9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 uri: /reference/9463d1f1-764f-4185-9a2b-41fb7d2071d7 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'DuPont, Dale K.' Publisher: WorkBoat.com Title: High Water Closes River Near St. Louis URL: https://www.workboat.com/archive/high-water-closes-river-near-st-louis/ Year: 2013 _record_number: 21318 _uuid: 9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/b9e426a2-3058-4840-a796-b27bb6701700 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1.yaml identifier: 9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 uri: /reference/9478fde6-be0e-4ddf-b79e-348a4dc7b9b1 - attrs: Author: 'Harding, Keith J.; Snyder, Peter K.; Liess, Stefan' DOI: 10.1002/2013JD019994 ISSN: 2169-8996 Issue: 22 Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Keywords: dynamical downscaling; CMIP5; Great Plains; WRF; extreme rainfall events; model evaluation; 0550 Model verification and validation; 1626 Global climate models; 1817 Extreme events; 1854 Precipitation; 3355 Regional modeling Pages: '12,522-12,536' Title: Use of dynamical downscaling to improve the simulation of Central U.S. warm season precipitation in CMIP5 models Volume: 118 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21105 _uuid: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013JD019994 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a.yaml identifier: 94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a uri: /reference/94a4d51e-96a4-4155-926d-31be60e2206a - attrs: Author: 'Ludsin, Stuart A.; Kershner, Mark W.; Blocksom, Karen A.; Knight, Roger L.; Stein, Roy A.' DOI: '10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011[0731:LADILE]2.0.CO;2' ISSN: 1939-5582 Issue: 3 Journal: Ecological Applications Keywords: detrended correspondence analysis; eutrophication; Great Lakes; Lake Erie; oligotrophication; phosphorus abatement; productivity; resilience; species diversity; species richness; species turnover; succession Pages: 731-746 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: 'Life after death in Lake Erie: Nutrient controls drive fish species richness, rehabilitation' Volume: 11 Year: 2001 _record_number: 21222 _uuid: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/1051-0761(2001)011%5B0731:LADILE%5D2.0.CO;2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4.yaml identifier: 94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 uri: /reference/94c3eb94-fa61-42cb-b254-abd7edfc85f4 - attrs: .reference_type: 32 Author: "Kunkel, K. E.\rStevens, L. E.\rStevens, S. E.\rSun, L.\rJanssen, E.\rWuebbles, D.\rHilberg, S.D.\rTimlin, M.S.\rStoecker, L.\rWestcott, N.E.\rDobson, J.G." Pages: 103 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service' Title: 'Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment: Part 3. Climate of the Midwest U.S. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142-3' URL: http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/technical_reports/NOAA_NESDIS_Tech_Report_142-3-Climate_of_the_Midwest_U.S.pdf Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1411 _uuid: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 reftype: Government Document child_publication: /report/noaa-techreport-nesdis-142-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9.yaml identifier: 95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 uri: /reference/95f2ea7d-12e3-4ed5-9247-7cf139db91a9 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Laurentian Great Lakes of North America provide valuable ecosystem services, including fisheries, to the surrounding population. Given the prevalence of other anthropogenic stressors that have historically affected the fisheries of the Great Lakes (e.g., eutrophication, invasive species, overfishing), climate change is often viewed as a long-term stressor and, subsequently, may not always be prioritized by managers and researchers. However, climate change has the potential to negatively affect fish and fisheries in the Great Lakes through its influence on habitat. In this paper, we (1) summarize projected changes in climate and fish habitat in the Great Lakes; (2) summarize fish responses to climate change in the Great Lakes; (3) describe key interactions between climate change and other stressors relevant to Great Lakes fish, and (4) summarize how climate change can be incorporated into fisheries management. In general, fish habitat is projected to be characterized by warmer temperatures throughout the water column, less ice cover, longer periods of stratification, and more frequent and widespread periods of bottom hypoxia in productive areas of the Great Lakes. Based solely on thermal habitat, fish populations theoretically could experience prolonged optimal growth environment within a changing climate, however, models that assess physical habitat influences at specific life stages convey a more complex picture. Looking at specific interactions with other stressors, climate change may exacerbate the negative impacts of both eutrophication and invasive species for fish habitat in the Great Lakes. Although expanding monitoring and research to consider climate change interactions with currently studied stressors, may offer managers the best opportunity to keep the valuable Great Lakes fisheries sustainable, this expansion is globally applicable for large lake ecosystem dealing with multiple stressors in the face of continued human-driven changes.' Author: 'Collingsworth, Paris D.; Bunnell, David B.; Murray, Michael W.; Kao, Yu-Chun; Feiner, Zachary S.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Höök, Tomas O.; Ludsin, Stuart A.' DOI: 10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 Date: June 01 ISSN: 1573-5184 Issue: 2 Journal: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries Pages: 363-391 Title: Climate change as a long-term stressor for the fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America Type of Article: journal article Volume: 27 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21122 _uuid: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s11160-017-9480-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c.yaml identifier: 96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c uri: /reference/96b70944-fb5a-4706-90f1-5f423393f37c - attrs: Author: 'Rittenhouse, Chadwick D.; Rissman, Adena R.' DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 Date: 2/1/ ISSN: 0301-4797 Journal: Journal of Environmental Management Keywords: Climate change impacts; Forestry; Adaptation; Multiple stressors Pages: 157-167 Title: Changes in winter conditions impact forest management in north temperate forests Volume: 149 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21142 _uuid: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jenvman.2014.10.010 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538.yaml identifier: 97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 uri: /reference/97dc06d1-c73a-47d3-9b27-7ced16637538 - attrs: Abstract: 'Forests and trees throughout the world are increasingly affected by factors related to global change. Expanding international trade has facilitated invasions of numerous insects and pathogens into new regions. Many of these invasions have caused substantial forest damage, economic impacts and losses of ecosystem goods and services provided by trees. Climate change is already affecting the geographic distribution of host trees and their associated insects and pathogens, with anticipated increases in pest impacts by both native and invasive pests. Although climate change will benefit many forest insects, changes in thermal conditions may disrupt evolved life history traits and cause phenological mismatches. Individually, the threats posed to forest ecosystems by invasive pests and climate change are serious. Although interactions between these two drivers and their outcomes are poorly understood and hence difficult to predict, it is clear that the cumulative impacts on forest ecosystems will be exacerbated. Here we introduce and synthesize the information in this special issue of Forestry with articles that illustrate the impacts of invasions of insects and pathogens, climate change, forest management and their interactions, as well as methods to predict, assess and mitigate these impacts. Most of these contributions were presented at the XXIV IUFRO World Congress in 2014.' Author: 'Ramsfield, T. D.; Bentz, B. J.; Faccoli, M.; Jactel, H.; Brockerhoff, E. G.' DOI: 10.1093/forestry/cpw018 ISSN: 0015-752X Issue: 3 Journal: 'Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research' Pages: 245-252 Title: 'Forest health in a changing world: Effects of globalization and climate change on forest insect and pathogen impacts' Volume: 89 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21177 _uuid: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/forestry/cpw018 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0.yaml identifier: 98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 uri: /reference/98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0 - attrs: Author: 'Aronson, Myla F. J.; Handel, Steven N.' DOI: 10.3375/043.031.0410 Date: 2011/10/01 ISSN: 0885-8608 Issue: 4 Journal: Natural Areas Journal Pages: 400-407 Publisher: Natural Areas Association Title: Deer and invasive plant species suppress forest herbaceous communities and canopy tree regeneration Volume: 31 Year: 2011 _record_number: 21229 _uuid: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3375/043.031.0410 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e.yaml identifier: 995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e uri: /reference/995741c9-a4a9-4d8b-8aa7-74b7ba90c69e - attrs: Author: 'Rajkovich, Nicholas B.' DOI: 10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 Journal: Michigan Journal of Sustainability Pages: 81-101 Title: 'A system of professions approach to reducing heat exposure in Cuyahoga County, Ohio' Volume: 4 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21293 _uuid: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3998/mjs.12333712.0004.007 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded.yaml identifier: 99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded uri: /reference/99b4f914-06f7-4489-836a-04ea02b99ded - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: 'U.S. EPA, Office of Wastewater Management' Pages: 92 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 833-R-16-006 Title: 'Report to Congress: Combined Sewer Overflows into the Great Lakes Basin' URL: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-05/documents/gls_cso_report_to_congress_-_4-12-2016.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 21302 _uuid: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/report-congress-combined-sewer-overflows-into-great-lakes-basin href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0.yaml identifier: 9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 uri: /reference/9a1f1c93-72af-4e99-bbce-13928fd35ba0 - attrs: Abstract: 'In 2014, a presidential memorandum called for an assessment of the nation’s pollinators, in response to growing awareness of their economic importance and recent declines. We assess, for the first time to our knowledge, the status and trends of wild bee abundance and their potential impacts on pollination services across the United States. We develop national maps of wild bee abundance, report land-use–driven changes over time, and relate them to trends in agricultural demand for pollination. We estimate uncertainty in the findings, so future research can target the least-understood regions and topics. Our findings can also help focus conservation efforts where declines in bee abundance are most certain, especially where agricultural demand for pollination services is growing.Wild bees are highly valuable pollinators. Along with managed honey bees, they provide a critical ecosystem service by ensuring stable pollination to agriculture and wild plant communities. Increasing concern about the welfare of both wild and managed pollinators, however, has prompted recent calls for national evaluation and action. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we assess the status and trends of wild bees and their potential impacts on pollination services across the coterminous United States. We use a spatial habitat model, national land-cover data, and carefully quantified expert knowledge to estimate wild bee abundance and associated uncertainty. Between 2008 and 2013, modeled bee abundance declined across 23% of US land area. This decline was generally associated with conversion of natural habitats to row crops. We identify 139 counties where low bee abundances correspond to large areas of pollinator-dependent crops. These areas of mismatch between supply (wild bee abundance) and demand (cultivated area) for pollination comprise 39% of the pollinator-dependent crop area in the United States. Further, we find that the crops most highly dependent on pollinators tend to experience more severe mismatches between declining supply and increasing demand. These trends, should they continue, may increase costs for US farmers and may even destabilize crop production over time. National assessments such as this can help focus both scientific and political efforts to understand and sustain wild bees. As new information becomes available, repeated assessments can update findings, revise priorities, and track progress toward sustainable management of our nation’s pollinators.' Author: 'Koh, Insu; Lonsdorf, Eric V.; Williams, Neal M.; Brittain, Claire; Isaacs, Rufus; Gibbs, Jason; Ricketts, Taylor H.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1517685113 Issue: 1 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 140-145 Title: 'Modeling the status, trends, and impacts of wild bee abundance in the United States' Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26589 _uuid: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1517685113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da.yaml identifier: 9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da uri: /reference/9a868281-67c0-49c9-bc42-69f29b3705da - attrs: Author: 'Changnon, Stanley' ISSN: 0019-2252 Issue: 3-4 Journal: Transactions of the Illinois State Academy of Science Pages: 181-190 Title: Impacts of the 2008 floods on railroads in Illinois and adjacent states URL: http://ilacadofsci.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/102-17MS2819-print.pdf Volume: 102 Year: 2009 _record_number: 21296 _uuid: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/impacts-2008-floods-on-railroads-illinois-adjacent-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318.yaml identifier: 9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 uri: /reference/9baccf7b-275b-400c-8432-c8c92651c318 - attrs: Abstract: 'Consistent with a warming climate, birds are shifting the timing of their migrations, but it remains unclear to what extent these shifts have kept pace with the changing environment. Because bird migration is primarily cued by annually consistent physiological responses to photoperiod, but conditions at their breeding grounds depend on annually variable climate, bird arrival and climate-driven spring events would diverge. We combined satellite and citizen science data to estimate rates of change in phenological interval between spring green-up and migratory arrival for 48 breeding passerine species across North America. Both arrival and green-up changed over time, usually in the same direction (earlier or later). Although birds adjusted their arrival dates, 9 of 48 species did not keep pace with rapidly changing green-up and across all species the interval between arrival and green-up increased by over half a day per year. As green-up became earlier in the east, arrival of eastern breeding species increasingly lagged behind green-up, whereas in the west—where green-up typically became later—birds arrived increasingly earlier relative to green-up. Our results highlight that phenologies of species and trophic levels can shift at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches with negative fitness consequences.' Author: 'Mayor, Stephen J.; Guralnick, Robert P.; Tingley, Morgan W.; Otegui, Javier; Withey, John C.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Andrew, Margaret E.; Leyk, Stefan; Pearse, Ian S.; Schneider, David C.' DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z Date: 2017/05/15 ISSN: 2045-2322 Issue: 1 Journal: Scientific Reports Pages: 1902 Title: Increasing phenological asynchrony between spring green-up and arrival of migratory birds Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21164 _uuid: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/s41598-017-02045-z href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed.yaml identifier: 9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed uri: /reference/9c921777-0a90-411f-b3bd-722da79a2fed - attrs: Abstract: 'The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.' Author: 'Mason, Lacey A.; Riseng, Catherine M.; Gronewold, Andrew D.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Jia; Clites, Anne; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; McIntyre, Peter B.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 Date: September 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 71-83 Title: Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes Type of Article: journal article Volume: 138 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21117 _uuid: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0.yaml identifier: 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 uri: /reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ISU,' Place Published: 'Ames, IA' Publisher: Iowa State University (ISU) Title: Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) URL: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/ Year: 2017 _record_number: 21258 _uuid: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/3686a43c-a17a-47d1-9e21-ed8acdac44ab href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05.yaml identifier: 9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 uri: /reference/9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Editor: 'Shifley, Stephen R.; Moser, W. Keith' ISBN: Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-151 Number of Pages: 388 Place Published: 'Newtown Square, PA' Publisher: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station' Title: Future Forests of the Northern United States URL: https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/50448 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21243 _uuid: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /book/future-forests-northern-united-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5.yaml identifier: 9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 uri: /reference/9e2e24c8-649d-4be1-b206-2177724575b5 - attrs: Abstract: 'OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent “non-green space” (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99(th) percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI = 1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI = 1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI = 0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples’ heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.' Author: "Gronlund, Carina J.; Berrocal, Veronica J.; White-Newsome, Jalonne L.; Conlon, Kathryn C.; O'Neill, Marie S." DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042 Date: 11/25 ISSN: "0013-9351\r1096-0953" Journal: Environmental Research Name of Database: PMC Pages: 449-461 Title: 'Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007' Volume: 136 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21133 _uuid: 9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2014.08.042 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e.yaml identifier: 9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e uri: /reference/9ef14c5c-9a31-498c-916c-c64bca251d0e - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Andresen, Jeff; Steve Hilberg; Ken Kunkel' Institution: Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessments (GLISA) Center Pages: 18 Place Published: 'Ann Arbor, MI' Title: Historical Climate and Climate Trends in the Midwestern USA. U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report URL: http://glisa.umich.edu/media/files/NCA/MTIT_Historical.pdf Year: 2012 _record_number: 21250 _uuid: 9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/historical-climate-climate-trends-midwestern-usa-us-national-climate-assessment-midwest-technical-input-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07.yaml identifier: 9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 uri: /reference/9f6b4c9d-806d-4af8-8d7a-1b75cbb41f07 - attrs: Abstract: 'Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.' Author: 'Maclean, Ilya M. D.; Wilson, Robert J.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1017352108 Date: 'July 26, 2011' Issue: 30 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 12337-12342 Title: Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk Volume: 108 Year: 2011 _record_number: 21166 _uuid: a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1017352108 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550.yaml identifier: a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 uri: /reference/a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Changes in temperature, CO(2), and precipitation under the scenarios of climate change for the next 30 yr present a challenge to crop production. This review focuses on the impact of temperature, CO(2), and ozone on agronomic crops and the implications for crop production. Understanding these implications for agricultural crops is critical for developing cropping systems resilient to stresses induced by climate change. There is variation among crops in their response to CO(2), temperature, and precipitation changes and, with the regional differences in predicted climate, a situation is created in which the responses will be further complicated. For example, the temperature effects on soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] could potentially cause yield reductions of 2.4% in the South but an increase of 1.7% in the Midwest. The frequency of years when temperatures exceed thresholds for damage during critical growth stages is likely to increase for some crops and regions. The increase in CO(2) contributes significantly to enhanced plant growth and improved water use efficiency (WUE); however, there may be a downscaling of these positive impacts due to higher temperatures plants will experience during their growth cycle. A challenge is to understand the interactions of the changing climatic parameters because of the interactions among temperature, CO(2), and precipitation on plant growth and development and also on the biotic stresses of weeds, insects, and diseases. Agronomists will have to consider the variations in temperature and precipitation as part of the production system if they are to ensure the food security required by an ever increasing population.' Alternate Journal: Agron J Author: "Hatfield, J. L.\rBoote, K. J.\rKimball, B. A.\rZiska, L. H.\rIzaurralde, R. C.\rOrt, D.\rThomson, A. M.\rWolfe, D." Author Address: 'Hatfield, JL; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Natl Lab Agr & Environm, Ames, IA 50011 USA; Univ Florida, Agron Dep, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA; USDA ARS, US Arid Land Agr Res Ctr, Maricopa, AZ 85138 USA; USDA, Crop Syst & Global Change Lab, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA; Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA; Univ Illinois, USDA ARS, Photosynth Res Unit, Urbana, IL 61801 USA; Cornell Univ, Dep Hort, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA' DOI: 10.2134/agronj2010.0303 Date: Mar-Apr ISSN: 1435-0645 Issue: 2 Journal: Agronomy Journal Keywords: air co2 enrichment; atmospheric carbon-dioxide; water-use efficiency; phaseolus-vulgaris l.; solanum-tuberosum l.; rottboellia-cochinchinensis interference; endosperm cell-division; high-temperature stress; soybean glycine-max; long-term exposure Language: English Notes: 740XZ; Times Cited:5; Cited References Count:225 Pages: 351-370 Title: 'Climate impacts on agriculture: Implications for crop production' Volume: 103 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 16: Northeast FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL","RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL","Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 361 _uuid: a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2134/agronj2010.0303 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292.yaml identifier: a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 uri: /reference/a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 231-256 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21566 _uuid: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89.yaml identifier: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 uri: /reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 - attrs: Author: 'Ash, Jeremy D.; Givnish, Thomas J.; Waller, Donald M.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13429 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 3 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: climate analog; forest understory; functional traits; geographic centroid; migratory lag Pages: 1305-1315 Title: Tracking lags in historical plant species’ shifts in relation to regional climate change Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21187 _uuid: a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13429 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634.yaml identifier: a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 uri: /reference/a307878c-a79f-4dec-9435-e81f75676634 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Ducks Unlimited,' Institution: Ducks Unlimited Great Lakes/Atlantic Region Pages: 2 Place Published: 'Ann Arbor, MI' Title: Missouri state conservation report URL: http://www.ducks.org/missouri/missouri-conservation-projects Year: 2016 _record_number: 21301 _uuid: a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/missouri-state-conservation-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3.yaml identifier: a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 uri: /reference/a373ebb7-290f-4513-8719-2d0a7005d9c3 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Hellmann, Jessica J.\rByers, James E.\rBierwagen, Britta G.\rDukes, Jeffrey S." DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x ISSN: 1523-1739 Issue: 3 Journal: Conservation Biology Keywords: Climate change Pages: 534-543 Title: Five potential consequences of climate change for invasive species URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x/pdf Volume: 22 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 17: Southeast and Caribbean FINAL","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 705 _uuid: a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.00951.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e.yaml identifier: a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e uri: /reference/a3f38823-1fa8-4f49-bc35-9f76c724230e - attrs: Author: 'Tobin, Patrick C.; Nagarkatti, Sudha; Loeb, Greg; Saunders, Michael C.' DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 5 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: climate change; diapause; insect population dynamics; phenology; photoperiod; seasonality; voltinism Pages: 951-957 Publisher: Blackwell Publishing Ltd Title: Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species Volume: 14 Year: 2008 _record_number: 21190 _uuid: a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01561.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf.yaml identifier: a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf uri: /reference/a61ed579-9beb-448b-8d50-75790c8204bf - attrs: Abstract: 'Heat and drought are two emerging climatic threats to the US maize and soybean production, yet their impacts on yields are collectively determined by the magnitude of climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study quantifies the combined and separate impacts of high temperature, heat and drought stresses on the current and future US rainfed maize and soybean production and for the first time characterizes spatial shifts in the relative importance of individual stress. Crop yields are simulated using the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), driven by high-resolution (12 km) dynamically downscaled climate projections for 1995–2004 and 2085–2094. Results show that maize and soybean yield losses are prominent in the US Midwest by the late 21st century under both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and the magnitude of loss highly depends on the current vulnerability and changes in climate extremes. Elevated atmospheric CO2 partially but not completely offsets the yield gaps caused by climate extremes, and the effect is greater in soybean than in maize. Our simulations suggest that drought will continue to be the largest threat to US rainfed maize production under RCP4.5 and soybean production under both RCP scenarios, whereas high temperature and heat stress take over the dominant stress of drought on maize under RCP8.5. We also reveal that shifts in the geographic distributions of dominant stresses are characterized by the increase in concurrent stresses, especially for the US Midwest. These findings imply the importance of considering heat and drought stresses simultaneously for future agronomic adaptation and mitigation strategies, particularly for breeding programs and crop management. The modeling framework of partitioning the total effects of climate change into individual stress impacts can be applied to the study of other crops and agriculture systems.' Author: 'Jin, Zhenong; Zhuang, Qianlai; Wang, Jiali; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.; Zobel, Zachary; Kotamarthi, Veerabhadra R.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13617 Issue: 7 Journal: Global Change Biology Pages: 2687-2704 Title: The combined and separate impacts of climate extremes on the current and future U.S. rainfed maize and soybean production under elevated CO2 Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26583 _uuid: a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13617 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6.yaml identifier: a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6 uri: /reference/a7956e52-8365-4308-9465-fb0eaa3075f6