--- - attrs: Abstract: 'Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.' Author: 'Griscom, Bronson W.; Adams, Justin; Ellis, Peter W.; Houghton, Richard A.; Lomax, Guy; Miteva, Daniela A.; Schlesinger, William H.; Shoch, David; Siikamäki, Juha V.; Smith, Pete; Woodbury, Peter; Zganjar, Chris; Blackman, Allen; Campari, João; Conant, Richard T.; Delgado, Christopher; Elias, Patricia; Gopalakrishna, Trisha; Hamsik, Marisa R.; Herrero, Mario; Kiesecker, Joseph; Landis, Emily; Laestadius, Lars; Leavitt, Sara M.; Minnemeyer, Susan; Polasky, Stephen; Potapov, Peter; Putz, Francis E.; Sanderman, Jonathan; Silvius, Marcel; Wollenberg, Eva; Fargione, Joseph' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114 Issue: 44 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 11645-11650 Title: Natural climate solutions Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25724 _uuid: 3a575724-2a5d-4330-97e0-7c5552c1e80d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1710465114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3a575724-2a5d-4330-97e0-7c5552c1e80d.yaml identifier: 3a575724-2a5d-4330-97e0-7c5552c1e80d uri: /reference/3a575724-2a5d-4330-97e0-7c5552c1e80d - attrs: Author: 'Higgins, S. N.; Zanden, M. J. Vander' DOI: 10.1890/09-1249.1 ISSN: 1557-7015 Issue: 2 Journal: Ecological Monographs Keywords: benthic–pelagic coupling; biological invasion; cross-habitat subsidies; Dreissena spp.; ecosystem engineer; exotic species; facilitation; food web disruption; invasive species; quagga mussel; zebra mussel Pages: 179-196 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: 'What a difference a species makes: A meta–analysis of dreissenid mussel impacts on freshwater ecosystems' Volume: 80 Year: 2010 _record_number: 21218 _uuid: 3a801b36-a7a1-4224-9920-0f60068e398e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/09-1249.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3a801b36-a7a1-4224-9920-0f60068e398e.yaml identifier: 3a801b36-a7a1-4224-9920-0f60068e398e uri: /reference/3a801b36-a7a1-4224-9920-0f60068e398e - attrs: Author: 'Howk, Forrest' DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2008.11.002 Date: 2009/03/01/ ISSN: 0380-1330 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Great Lakes Research Keywords: Ice; Navigation; Bayfield; Lake Superior Pages: 159-162 Title: 'Changes in Lake Superior ice cover at Bayfield, Wisconsin' Volume: 35 Year: 2009 _record_number: 26575 _uuid: 3b19d9fb-e7c3-4203-80aa-5f862d60aec6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jglr.2008.11.002 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3b19d9fb-e7c3-4203-80aa-5f862d60aec6.yaml identifier: 3b19d9fb-e7c3-4203-80aa-5f862d60aec6 uri: /reference/3b19d9fb-e7c3-4203-80aa-5f862d60aec6 - attrs: Author: 'Austin, Jay; Colman, Steve' DOI: 10.4319/lo.2008.53.6.2724 ISSN: 1939-5590 Issue: 6 Journal: Limnology and Oceanography Pages: 2724-2730 Title: A century of temperature variability in Lake Superior Volume: 53 Year: 2008 _record_number: 21232 _uuid: 3b6270f6-f42f-43b2-ac39-cc7faf622fdd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.4319/lo.2008.53.6.2724 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3b6270f6-f42f-43b2-ac39-cc7faf622fdd.yaml identifier: 3b6270f6-f42f-43b2-ac39-cc7faf622fdd uri: /reference/3b6270f6-f42f-43b2-ac39-cc7faf622fdd - attrs: .reference_type: 10 .text_styles: '' Author: 'Walthall, C.; Backlund, P.; Hatfield, J.; Lengnick, L.; Marshall, E.; Walsh, M.; Adkins, S.; Aillery, M.; Ainsworth, E.A.; Amman, C.; Anderson, C.J.; Bartomeus, I.; Baumgard, L.H.; Booker, F.; Bradley, B.; Blumenthal, D.M.; Bunce, J.; Burkey, K.; Dabney, S.M.; Delgado, J.A.; Dukes, J.; Funk, A.; Garrett, K.; Glenn, M.; Grantz, D.A.; Goodrich, D.; Hu, S.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Jones, R.A.C.; Kim, S-H.; Leaky, A.D.B.; Lewers, K.; Mader, T.L.; McClung, A.; Morgan, J.; Muth, D.J.; Nearing, M.; Oosterhuis, D.M.; Ort, D.; Parmesan, C.; Pettigrew, W.T.; Polley, W.; Rader, R.; Rice, C.; Rivington, M.; Rosskopf, E.; Salas, W.A.; Sollenberger, L.E.; Srygley, R.; Stockle, C.; Takle, E.S.; Timlin, D.; White, J.W.; Winfree, R.; Wright-Morton, L.; Ziska, L.H.' Institution: U.S. Department of Agriculture Pages: 186 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Series Volume: USDA Technical Bulletin 1935 Title: 'Climate Change and Agriculture in the United States: Effects and Adaptation' URL: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/CC%20and%20Agriculture%20Report%20(02-04-2013)b.pdf Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 14: Rural Communities FINAL","Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL"]' _record_number: 3329 _uuid: 3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/usda-techbul-1935 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d.yaml identifier: 3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d uri: /reference/3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Vogel, Jason; Karen M. Carney; Joel B. Smith; Charles Herrick; Missy Stults; Megan O’Grady; Alexis St. Juliana; Heather Hosterman; Lorine Giangola' Institution: Kresge Foundation Keywords: urban; climate change; adaptation Place Published: Detroit Title: Climate Adaptation — The State of Practice in U.S. Communities URL: http://kresge.org/sites/default/files/library/climate-adaptation-the-state-of-practice-in-us-communities-full-report.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 22874 _uuid: 3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-adaptation-state-practice-us-communities href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93.yaml identifier: 3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93 uri: /reference/3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93 - attrs: Abstract: 'As they have in response to past climatic changes, many species will shift their distributions in response to modern climate change. However, due to the unprecedented rapidity of projected climatic changes, some species may not be able to move their ranges fast enough to track shifts in suitable climates and associated habitats. Here, we investigate the ability of 493 mammals to keep pace with projected climatic changes in the Western Hemisphere. We modeled the velocities at which species will likely need to move to keep pace with projected changes in suitable climates. We compared these velocities with the velocities at which species are able to move as a function of dispersal distances and dispersal frequencies. Across the Western Hemisphere, on average, 9.2% of mammals at a given location will likely be unable to keep pace with climate change. In some places, up to 39% of mammals may be unable to track shifts in suitable climates. Eighty-seven percent of mammalian species are expected to experience reductions in range size and 20% of these range reductions will likely be due to limited dispersal abilities as opposed to reductions in the area of suitable climate. Because climate change will likely outpace the response capacity of many mammals, mammalian vulnerability to climate change may be more extensive than previously anticipated.' Author: 'Schloss, C. A.; Nunez, T. A.; Lawler, J. J.' Author Address: 'School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA. cschloss@u.washington.edu' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1116791109 Database Provider: CCII PubMed NLM Date: May 29 EPub Date: 2012/05/16 ISSN: "1091-6490 (Electronic)\r0027-8424 (Linking)" Issue: 22 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Keywords: 'Algorithms; Animals; Climate; Climate Change; Ecosystem; Geography; Humans; Mammals/classification/ growth & development; Models, Biological; North America; Population Dynamics; South America; Species Specificity' Language: eng NIHMSID: ' NIEHS' Name of Database: ' ' PMCID: 3365214 Pages: 8606-11 Title: Dispersal will limit ability of mammals to track climate change in the Western Hemisphere Volume: 109 Year: 2012 _record_number: 5137 _uuid: 3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1116791109 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0.yaml identifier: 3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0 uri: /reference/3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0 - attrs: Abstract: "Rising temperatures and increasing drought severity linked to global climate change are negatively impacting forest growth and function at the equatorial range edge of species distributions. Rapid dieback and range retractions are predicted to occur in many areas as temperatures continue to rise. Despite widespread negative impacts at the ecosystem level, equatorial range edges are not well studied, and their responses to climate change are poorly understood. Effective monitoring of tree responses to climate in these regions is of critical importance in order to predict and manage threats to populations. Remote sensing of impacts on forests can be combined with ground-based assessment of environmental and ecological changes to identify populations most at risk. Modelling may be useful as a 'first-filter' to identify populations of concern but, together with many remote sensing methods, often lacks adequate resolution for application at the range edge. A multidisciplinary approach, combining remote observation with targeted ground-based monitoring of local susceptible and resistant populations, is therefore required. Once at-risk regions have been identified, management can be adapted to reduce immediate risks in priority populations, and promote long-term adaptation to change. However, management to protect forest ecosystem function may be preferable where the maintenance of historical species assemblages is no longer viable." Author: 'Jump, Alistair S.; Cavin, Liam; Hunter, Peter D.' DOI: 10.1039/B923773A ISSN: 1464-0325 Issue: 10 Journal: Journal of Environmental Monitoring Pages: 1791-1798 Publisher: The Royal Society of Chemistry Title: Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees Type of Article: 10.1039/B923773A Volume: 12 Year: 2010 _record_number: 21165 _uuid: 3cd12f10-190b-49a2-bf7b-640487e70e9d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1039/B923773A href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3cd12f10-190b-49a2-bf7b-640487e70e9d.yaml identifier: 3cd12f10-190b-49a2-bf7b-640487e70e9d uri: /reference/3cd12f10-190b-49a2-bf7b-640487e70e9d - attrs: Abstract: 'West Nile virus (WNV) is a leading cause of mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Annual seasonal outbreaks vary in size and location. Predicting where and when higher than normal WNV transmission will occur can help direct limited public health resources. We developed models for the contiguous United States to identify meteorological anomalies associated with above average incidence of WNV neuroinvasive disease from 2004 to 2012. We used county-level WNV data reported to ArboNET and meteorological data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System. As a result of geographic differences in WNV transmission, we divided the United States into East and West, and 10 climate regions. Above average annual temperature was associated with increased likelihood of higher than normal WNV disease incidence, nationally and in most regions. Lower than average annual total precipitation was associated with higher disease incidence in the eastern United States, but the opposite was true in most western regions. Although multiple factors influence WNV transmission, these findings show that anomalies in temperature and precipitation are associated with above average WNV disease incidence. Readily accessible meteorological data may be used to develop predictive models to forecast geographic areas with elevated WNV disease risk before the coming season.' Author: 'Hahn, Micah B.; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Hayden, Mary H.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Delorey, Mark J.; Lindsey, Nicole P.; Nasci, Roger S.; Fischer, Marc' DOI: 10.4269/ajtmh.14-0737 Date: "11/30/received\r02/08/accepted" ISSN: "0002-9637\r1476-1645" Issue: 5 Journal: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Name of Database: PMC Pages: 1013-1022 Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Title: 'Meteorological conditions associated with increased incidence of West Nile virus disease in the United States, 2004–2012' Volume: 92 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21231 _uuid: 3d6b2a18-fbfd-4751-8eb9-a35b7502ac9f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.4269/ajtmh.14-0737 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3d6b2a18-fbfd-4751-8eb9-a35b7502ac9f.yaml identifier: 3d6b2a18-fbfd-4751-8eb9-a35b7502ac9f uri: /reference/3d6b2a18-fbfd-4751-8eb9-a35b7502ac9f - attrs: Abstract: 'Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.' Author: 'Millar, Constance I.; Stephenson, Nathan L.' DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa9933 Issue: 6250 Journal: Science Pages: 823-826 Title: Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance Volume: 349 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21196 _uuid: 3def47b9-0e32-440b-bef1-f9bc176a7dd0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aaa9933 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3def47b9-0e32-440b-bef1-f9bc176a7dd0.yaml identifier: 3def47b9-0e32-440b-bef1-f9bc176a7dd0 uri: /reference/3def47b9-0e32-440b-bef1-f9bc176a7dd0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.' Author: 'Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 Issue: 10 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e0140486 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: Biotic and climatic velocity identify contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change Volume: 10 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21213 _uuid: 3e243243-eb72-4795-aeec-62d5d8326d4b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0140486 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3e243243-eb72-4795-aeec-62d5d8326d4b.yaml identifier: 3e243243-eb72-4795-aeec-62d5d8326d4b uri: /reference/3e243243-eb72-4795-aeec-62d5d8326d4b - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'USDN,' Title: 'Urban Sustainability Directors Network [web site]' URL: https://www.usdn.org/ Year: 2018 _record_number: 26625 _uuid: 3e6abdbd-2026-4318-9392-1a5766a5f344 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/deb87e77-7d3e-429d-b28b-b836bb74f5c6 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3e6abdbd-2026-4318-9392-1a5766a5f344.yaml identifier: 3e6abdbd-2026-4318-9392-1a5766a5f344 uri: /reference/3e6abdbd-2026-4318-9392-1a5766a5f344 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Babinszky, László; Halas, Veronika; Verstegen, Martin W. A.' Book Title: 'Climate Change - Socioeconomic Effects' DOI: 10.5772/23840 Editor: 'Blanco, Juan; Kheradmand, Houshang' Pages: Ch. 10 Place Published: 'Rijeka, Croatia' Publisher: InTech Title: Impacts of climate change on animal production and quality of animal food products Year: 2011 _record_number: 21253 _uuid: 3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/a080a9d3-f7f4-4a68-868e-74b842caf055 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a.yaml identifier: 3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a uri: /reference/3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Access Date: '7:53 AM; May 4, 2017' Author: 'Missouri Department of Transportation,' Title: 'Traveler Information Report [web site]' URL: http://traveler.modot.org/report/modottext.aspx?type=all#tag_flood_closed Year: 2017 _record_number: 26694 _uuid: 3fb9a087-cc62-47fb-8fe4-b6f557ca9a7c reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/f55e1d02-5bf8-4347-bd92-eef7ceafc197 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3fb9a087-cc62-47fb-8fe4-b6f557ca9a7c.yaml identifier: 3fb9a087-cc62-47fb-8fe4-b6f557ca9a7c uri: /reference/3fb9a087-cc62-47fb-8fe4-b6f557ca9a7c - attrs: Author: 'Scott, Robert W.; Huff, Floyd A.' DOI: 10.1016/S0380-1330(96)71006-7 Date: 1996/01/01/ ISSN: 0380-1330 Issue: 4 Journal: Journal of Great Lakes Research Keywords: Great Lakes; precipitation; temperature; clouds; vapor pressure; climate impacts Pages: 845-863 Title: Impacts of the Great Lakes on regional climate conditions Volume: 22 Year: 1996 _record_number: 21151 _uuid: 4060c7db-3392-402b-a41f-d0609edeef56 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/S0380-1330(96)71006-7 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4060c7db-3392-402b-a41f-d0609edeef56.yaml identifier: 4060c7db-3392-402b-a41f-d0609edeef56 uri: /reference/4060c7db-3392-402b-a41f-d0609edeef56 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Jump, Alistair S.\rMátyás, Csaba\rPeñuelas, Josep" DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007 Date: Dec ISSN: 0169-5347 Issue: 12 Journal: Trends in Ecology & Evolution Pages: 694-701 Title: The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species Volume: 24 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 72 _uuid: 41f154f3-d0e4-47eb-8fba-a47fe3a70c84 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/41f154f3-d0e4-47eb-8fba-a47fe3a70c84.yaml identifier: 41f154f3-d0e4-47eb-8fba-a47fe3a70c84 uri: /reference/41f154f3-d0e4-47eb-8fba-a47fe3a70c84 - attrs: Author: 'Hall, Kimberly R.; Herbert, Matthew E.; Sowa, Scott P.; Mysorekar, Sagar; Woznicki, Sean A.; Nejadhashemi, Pouyan A.; Wang, Lizhu' DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2016.11.005 Date: 2017/02/01/ ISSN: 0380-1330 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Great Lakes Research Keywords: Climate adaptation; Climate change; Great Lakes; Fish; Conservation outcomes; Agricultural impacts; Nutrient loading Pages: 59-68 Title: 'Reducing current and future risks: Using climate change scenarios to test an agricultural conservation framework' Volume: 43 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26570 _uuid: 42e9f5ac-4b72-40b4-bc2b-8200dfac3177 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jglr.2016.11.005 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/42e9f5ac-4b72-40b4-bc2b-8200dfac3177.yaml identifier: 42e9f5ac-4b72-40b4-bc2b-8200dfac3177 uri: /reference/42e9f5ac-4b72-40b4-bc2b-8200dfac3177 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Rosenzweig, C.\rTubiello, F.N.\rGoldberg, R.\rMills, E.\rBloomfield, J." DOI: 10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0 Journal: Global Environmental Change Pages: 197-202 Title: Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change Volume: 12 Year: 2002 _chapter: '["RG 3 Midwest","Ch. 18: Midwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 2692 _uuid: 42f23c97-2bf8-4ae2-950d-f5906df59fa0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/S0959-3780(02)00008-0 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/42f23c97-2bf8-4ae2-950d-f5906df59fa0.yaml identifier: 42f23c97-2bf8-4ae2-950d-f5906df59fa0 uri: /reference/42f23c97-2bf8-4ae2-950d-f5906df59fa0 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Frans, Chris; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Mishra, Vimal; Munoz-Arriola, Francisco; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.' DOI: 10.1002/grl.50262 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 6 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: Climate; Streamflow; LULC; 1632 Land cover change; 1637 Regional climate change; 1807 Climate impacts; 1834 Human impacts; 1833 Hydroclimatology Pages: 1104-1110 Title: Are climatic or land cover changes the dominant cause of runoff trends in the Upper Mississippi River Basin? Volume: 40 Year: 2013 _record_number: 20918 _uuid: 43a6ac94-f12c-4ed4-b942-02c9480acc93 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/grl.50262 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/43a6ac94-f12c-4ed4-b942-02c9480acc93.yaml identifier: 43a6ac94-f12c-4ed4-b942-02c9480acc93 uri: /reference/43a6ac94-f12c-4ed4-b942-02c9480acc93 - attrs: Abstract: "Global warming is expected to lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle, including more total rainfall and more frequent high intensity rainfall events. Rainfall amounts and intensities increased on average in the United States during the 20th century, and according to climate change models they are expected to continue to increase during the 21st century. These rainfall changes, along with expected changes in temperature, solar radiation, and atmospheric C02 concentrations, will have significant impacts on soil erosion rates. The processes involved in the impact of climate change on soil erosion by water are complex, involving changes in rainfall amounts and intensities, number of days of precipitation, ratio of rain to snow, plant biomass production, plant residue decomposition rates, soil microbial activity, evapo-transpiration rates, and shifts in land use necessary to accommodate a new climatic regime. This paper reviews several recent studies conducted by the authors that address the potential effects of climate change on soil erosion rates. The results show cause for concern. Rainfall erosivity levels may be on the rise across much of the United States. Where rainfall amounts increase, erosion and runoff will increase at an even greater rate: the ratio of erosion increase to annual rainfall increase is on the order of 1.7. Even in cases where annual rainfall would decrease, system feedbacks related to decreased biomass production could lead to greater susceptibility of the soil to erode. Results also show how farmers' response to climate change can potentially exacerbate, or ameliorate, the changes in erosion rates expected." Author: "Nearing, MA; Pruski, F.F.; O'Neal, M.R." Date: 'January 1, 2004' Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Pages: 43-50 Title: 'Expected climate change impacts on soil erosion rates: A review' URL: http://www.jswconline.org/content/59/1/43.abstract Volume: 59 Year: 2004 _record_number: 21246 _uuid: 43e7bfdb-30c7-407d-89ae-e94f7bff36a1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/expected-climate-change-impacts-on-soil-erosion-rates-review href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/43e7bfdb-30c7-407d-89ae-e94f7bff36a1.yaml identifier: 43e7bfdb-30c7-407d-89ae-e94f7bff36a1 uri: /reference/43e7bfdb-30c7-407d-89ae-e94f7bff36a1 - attrs: Abstract: 'This article explores the generation, transmission, and nature of ecological knowledge used by tribal and nontribal natural resource management agency personnel who collectively manage a 666,542-acre forest in northern Minnesota. Using key informant interviews and an adapted grounded theory analysis, we documented the forms of knowledge participants expressed in their descriptions of the forest and forest management, including traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge. We found that study participants across agencies use multiple forms of knowledge, that this knowledge is generated and transferred in distinct ways, and that participants acknowledge several challenges and opportunities to integration of traditional and western scientific knowledge in forest management. Overall, ecological knowledge expressed by study participants revealed multiple ways of knowing the forest. Knowledge varied most distinctly in the influence of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections to the forest on knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Formalizing existing informal knowledge integration efforts with attention to power structures, institutional culture, and knowledge application is recommended.

Management and Policy Implications: Forest values, beliefs, and knowledge can vary dramatically and sometimes clash among natural resource professionals involved in comanaged forests, particularly those managed by tribal and nontribal agencies. Findings from in-depth interviews with tribal and nontribal resource managers reveal both distinct and shared perspectives on a comanaged forest in northern Minnesota; most notable were the unique roles of cultural identity and spiritual or metaphysical connections in knowledge generation, transmission, and content. Resource managers interested in the integration of traditional and western scientific ecological knowledge may find success in formalizing ongoing informal activities including mutual learning or training in cross-cultural contexts, relationship building among agency and tribal leaders, cooperation in forest and cultural resource management projects, and collaborative forest planning. Still, attention to existing power structures, institutional cultural differences, and knowledge application practices will be important to these efforts.' Author: 'Bussey, John; Davenport, Mae A.; Emery, Marla R.; Carroll, Clint' DOI: 10.5849/jof.14-130 Date: // Issue: 2 Journal: Journal of Forestry Keywords: adaptation; comanagement; forest management; traditional ecological knowledge; western scientific ecological knowledge Pages: 97-107 Title: '"A lot of it comes from the heart": The nature and integration of ecological knowledge in tribal and nontribal forest management' Volume: 114 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21239 _uuid: 44b1444b-29ab-4edd-b285-f8820660fc32 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5849/jof.14-130 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/44b1444b-29ab-4edd-b285-f8820660fc32.yaml identifier: 44b1444b-29ab-4edd-b285-f8820660fc32 uri: /reference/44b1444b-29ab-4edd-b285-f8820660fc32 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Settle, Jeffrey; Gonso, Chris; Seidl, Mike' Institution: Indiana State Department of Agriculture Pages: 25 Place Published: 'Indianapolis, IN' Series Volume: (Update of the 2010 Hoover/Settle Report) Title: 'Indiana’s Hardwood Industry: Its Economic Impact ' URL: https://in.gov/isda/files/Indiana_Hardwoods_and_Their_Economic_Impact.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 21275 _uuid: 45571656-3f15-4349-8ed5-b84e65ecb75d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/indianas-hardwood-industry-its-economic-impact href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/45571656-3f15-4349-8ed5-b84e65ecb75d.yaml identifier: 45571656-3f15-4349-8ed5-b84e65ecb75d uri: /reference/45571656-3f15-4349-8ed5-b84e65ecb75d - attrs: Author: 'Tavakol-Davani, Hessam; Goharian, Erfan; Hansen, Carly H.; Tavakol-Davani, Hassan; Apul, Defne; Burian, Steven J.' DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2016.07.003 Date: 2016/11/01/ ISSN: 2210-6707 Journal: Sustainable Cities and Society Keywords: Change factor; Climate change; Combined sewer overflow; Hydrologic-hydraulic modeling; Rainwater harvesting Pages: 430-438 Title: How does climate change affect combined sewer overflow in a system benefiting from rainwater harvesting systems? Volume: 27 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26613 _uuid: 46a9dec0-9540-44c9-9eea-5a6d666887cf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.scs.2016.07.003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/46a9dec0-9540-44c9-9eea-5a6d666887cf.yaml identifier: 46a9dec0-9540-44c9-9eea-5a6d666887cf uri: /reference/46a9dec0-9540-44c9-9eea-5a6d666887cf - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Brenden, Travis O.; Russell W. Brown; Mark P. Ebener; Kevin Reid; Tammy J. Newcomb' Book Title: 'Great Lakes Fisheries Policy and Management: A Binational Perspective' Edition: 2nd Editor: William W. Taylor; Abigail J. Lynch; Nancy J. Leonard ISBN: 978-1611860245 Pages: 339-397 Place Published: 'Lansing, MI' Publisher: Michigan State University Press Title: 'Great Lakes commercial fisheries: Historical overview and prognoses for the future' Year: 2013 _record_number: 21282 _uuid: 46bc1606-306e-4205-b2b7-46f87c4e14ee reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/58be613a-c30d-45b8-9a69-1a171157c019 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/46bc1606-306e-4205-b2b7-46f87c4e14ee.yaml identifier: 46bc1606-306e-4205-b2b7-46f87c4e14ee uri: /reference/46bc1606-306e-4205-b2b7-46f87c4e14ee - attrs: Author: 'Vose, James M.; Miniat, Chelcy Ford; Luce, Charles H.; Asbjornsen, Heidi; Caldwell, Peter V.; Campbell, John L.; Grant, Gordon E.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Loheide Ii, Steven P.; Sun, Ge' DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.03.025 Date: 11/15/ ISSN: 0378-1127 Journal: Forest Ecology and Management Keywords: Transpiration; Streamflow; Water balance; Water quality; Climate change; Management options Pages: 335-345 Title: Ecohydrological implications of drought for forests in the United States Volume: 380 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21138 _uuid: 47f83403-7592-41e6-994d-62b7586eca6c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.03.025 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/47f83403-7592-41e6-994d-62b7586eca6c.yaml identifier: 47f83403-7592-41e6-994d-62b7586eca6c uri: /reference/47f83403-7592-41e6-994d-62b7586eca6c