Figure : fig--29-3

Estimates of Direct Economic Damage from Temperature Change

Figure 29.3

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Jeremy Martinich

This figure appears in chapter 29 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

The left graph shows the observed and projected changes in fossil fuel and industrial emissions of CO2 from human activities (emissions from land-use change do not appear in the figure; within the RCPs these emissions are less than 1 GtC per year by 2020 and fall thereafter). The right graph shows projections of direct damage to the current U.S. economy for six impact sectors (agriculture, crime, coasts, energy, heat mortality, and labor) as a function of global average temperature change (represented as average for 2080–2099 compared to 1980–2010). Compared to RCP8.5, lower temperatures due to mitigation under either of the lower scenarios (RCP2.6 or RCP4.5) substantially reduce median damages (dots) to the U.S. economy while also narrowing the uncertainty in potential adverse impacts. Dot-whiskers indicate the uncertainty in direct damages in 2090 (average of 2080–2099) derived from multiple combinations of climate models and forcing scenarios (dot, median; thick line, inner 66% credible interval; thin line, inner 90%). The gray shaded area represents the 90% confidence interval in the fit (black line) to the damage estimates. Damage estimates only capture adaptation to the extent that populations employed them in the historical period. Sources: (left) adapted from Wuebbles et al. 2017; 21f65069-74b3-4bf7-bc09-0f359b825aad (right) adapted from Hsiang et al. 2017fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16 and republished with permission of American Association for the Advancement of Science.

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This figure was created on July 22, 2017.

This figure was submitted on November 27, 2018.

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