uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.","O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel",10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x,"July 26",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis","journal article",2017,24077,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
/reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,,"Warren, R.; VanDerWal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J. A.; Atkinson, I.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T. J.; Jarvis, A.; Shoo, L. P.; Williams, S. E.; Lowe, J.",10.1038/nclimate1887,05/12/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss",,2013,24460,05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate1887
/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,,"Kopp, Robert E.; Shwom, Rachael L.; Wagner, Gernot; Yuan, Jiacan",10.1002/2016EF000362,,2328-4277,"Earth’s Future","Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment",,2016,20105,08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2016EF000362
/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,,"EPA,",,,,,"Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment",,2017,21365,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,Report,/report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017
/reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,,"Patiño, Reynaldo; Dawson, Dan; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.",10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006,2014/03/01/,1568-9883,"Harmful Algae","Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change",,2014,25203,0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006
/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,,"Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis",10.7930/J0MG7MDX,,,,"Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness",,2016,19374,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness
/reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,,"Beaudin, Laura; Huang, Ju-Chin",10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011,2014/10/01/,0921-8009,"Ecological Economics","Weather conditions and outdoor recreation: A study of New England ski areas",,2014,25193,1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011
/reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,"Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.","Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.",10.1371/journal.pone.0065427,,,"PLOS ONE","Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: A systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals",,2013,24490,2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0065427
/reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,"There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity.Science, this issue p. 571; see also p. 501Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.","Urban, Mark C.",10.1126/science.aaa4984,,,Science,"Accelerating extinction risk from climate change",,2015,23462,25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aaa4984
/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,,"Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.",10.1021/acs.est.7b01498,2017/08/15,0013-936X,"Environmental Science & Technology","Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment",,2017,21473,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
/reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,,"Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Edwards, T. L.; Shannon, S. R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S. R. M.; Timmermann, R.; Vaughan, D. G.",10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015,,1994-0424,"The Cryosphere","Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate",,2015,25196,34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015
/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,,"Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou",10.7930/J0VM49F2,,,,"Sea Level Rise",,2017,21570,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise
/reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,,"Burke, L.
Reytar, L.
Spalding, M.
Perry, A.",,,,,"Reefs at Risk Revisited",,2011,1400,3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,Book,/report/wri-reefs-at-risk-2011
/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,,"Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan",10.1080/10962247.2014.996270,,2162-2906,"Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association","The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030",,2015,16106,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,,"Fann, Neal; Brennan, Terry; Dolwick, Patrick; Gamble, Janet L.; Ilacqua, Vito; Kolb, Laura; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Ziska, Lewis",10.7930/J0GQ6VP6,,,,"Ch. 3: Air quality impacts",,2016,19375,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts
/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,,"Taylor, P.C.; W. Maslowski; J. Perlwitz; D.J. Wuebbles",10.7930/J00863GK,,,,"Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States",,2017,21569,61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic
/reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,,"Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden",10.1038/nclimate3390,09/18/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise",,2017,25206,64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3390
/reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,,"Dawson, J.; Scott, D.",10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009,2013/04/01/,0261-5177,"Tourism Management","Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector",,2013,21845,69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009
/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,,"Kopp, R.E.; D.R. Easterling; T. Hall; K. Hayhoe; R. Horton; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0GB227J,,,,"Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements",,2017,21573,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises
/reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,,"EPA,",,,,,"Guidelines for preparing economic analyses",,"2000 (revised 2014)",26085,72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,Report,/report/epa-240-r-00-003
/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,,"Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy",10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006,2017/07/01/,0959-3780,"Global Environmental Change","Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States",,2017,21625,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006
/reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,,"CAFF,",,,,,"Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Status and Trends in Arctic Biodiversity",,2013,26086,819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,Report,/report/arctic-biodiversity-assessment-status-trends-arctic-biodiversity
/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,,"Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.",10.1021/acs.est.5b01324,,1520-5851,"Environmental Science & Technology","U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation",,2015,19310,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324
/reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,"During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.","Bouttes, N.; J. M. Gregory; J. A. Lowe",10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1,,,"Journal of Climate","The reversibility of sea level rise",,2013,25194,924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1
/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,,"Anenberg, Susan C.; Weinberger, Kate R.; Roman, Henry; Neumann, James E.; Crimmins, Allison; Fann, Neal; Martinich, Jeremy; Kinney, Patrick L.",10.1002/2017GH000055,,2471-1403,GeoHealth,"Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change",,2017,24278,971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2017GH000055
/reference/9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1,9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1,,"Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt",10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.037,,0004-6981,"Atmospheric Environment","A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change",,2014,16102,9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.037
/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,,"Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; D. J. Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson ",,,,,"Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus",,2015,25465,9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,Book,/book/economic-risks-climate-change-an-american-prospectus
/reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18,ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18,"Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.","DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David",10.1038/nature17145,03/31/print,0028-0836,Nature,"Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise",,2016,19404,ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nature17145
/reference/b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7,b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7,"Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.","Pendleton, Linwood; Comte, Adrien; Langdon, Chris; Ekstrom, Julia A.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Suatoni, Lisa; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke M.; Burke, Lauretta; Cinner, Josh E.; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter E. T.; Gledhill, Dwight; Jiang, Li-Qing; van Hooidonk, Ruben J.; Teh, Louise; Waldbusser, George G.; Ritter, Jessica",10.1371/journal.pone.0164699,,,"PLOS ONE","Coral reefs and people in a high-CO2 world: Where can science make a difference to people?",,2016,26145,b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0164699
/reference/b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6,b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6,,"Burakowski, Elizabeth; Magnusson, Matthew",,,,,"Climate impacts on the winter tourism economy in the United States",,2012,21879,b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6,Report,/report/climate-impacts-on-winter-tourism-economy-united-states
/reference/b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1,b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1,"Tidal floods (i.e., “nuisance” flooding) are occurring more often during seasonal high tides or minor wind events, and the frequency is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. During these flood events, coastal communities’ roads are often impassable or difficult to pass, thus impacting routine transport needs. This study identifies vulnerable roads and quantifies the risk from nuisance flooding in the Eastern United States by combining public road information from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Performance Monitoring System with flood frequency maps, tidal gauge historic observations, and future projections of annual minor tidal flood frequencies and durations. The results indicate that tidal nuisance flooding across the East Coast threatens 7508 miles (12,083 km) of roadways including over 400 miles (644 km) of interstate roadways. From 1996–2005 to 2006–2015, there was a 90% average increase in nuisance floods. With sea level rise, nuisance-flood frequency is projected to grow at all locations assessed. The total induced vehicle-hours of delay due to nuisance flooding currently exceed 100 million hours annually. Nearly 160 million vehicle-hours of delay across the East Coast by 2020 (85% increase from 2010); 1.2 billion vehicle-hours by 2060 (126% increase from 2010); and 3.4 billion vehicle-hours by 2100 (392% increase from 2010) are projected under an intermediate low sea-level-rise scenario. By 2056–2065, nuisance flooding could occur almost daily at sites in Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, and Florida under an intermediate sea-level-rise scenario.","Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Cattaneo, Lia R.; Sweet, William; Mansfield, Theodore",10.1177/0361198118756366,,,"Transportation Research Record","Recent and future outlooks for nuisance flooding impacts on roadways on the US East Coast",,2018,26046,b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1,"Journal Article",/article/10.1177/0361198118756366
/reference/c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687,c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687,"The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.","Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.",10.1371/journal.pone.0082579,,,"PLOS ONE","Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios",,2013,24344,c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0082579
/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.","Liverman, Diana",10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5,"March 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context","journal article",2016,22064,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
/reference/dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd,dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd,,"Beard, Charles B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Barker, Christopher M.; Garofalo, Jada F.; Hahn, Micah; Hayden, Mary; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Schramm, Paul J.",10.7930/J0765C7V,,,,"Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases	",,2016,19377,dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/vectorborne-diseases
/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,,"Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances",10.1038/nclimate3411,11/02/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Quantifying the economic risks of climate change","Review Article",2017,24496,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3411
/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,,"Kingsley, Samantha L.; Melissa N. Eliot; Julia Gold; Robert R. Vanderslice; Gregory A. Wellenius",10.1289/ehp.1408826,,,"Environmental Health Perspectives","Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island",,2016,21760,ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/ehp.1408826
/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).","Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor",10.1126/science.aal4369,,,Science,"Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States",,2017,23965,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aal4369