uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.","O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel",10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x,"July 26",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis","journal article",2017,24077,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
/reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,,"Warren, R.; VanDerWal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J. A.; Atkinson, I.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T. J.; Jarvis, A.; Shoo, L. P.; Williams, S. E.; Lowe, J.",10.1038/nclimate1887,05/12/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss",,2013,24460,05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate1887
/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,,"Kopp, Robert E.; Shwom, Rachael L.; Wagner, Gernot; Yuan, Jiacan",10.1002/2016EF000362,,2328-4277,"Earth’s Future","Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment",,2016,20105,08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2016EF000362
/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,,"EPA,",,,,,"Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment",,2017,21365,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,Report,/report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017
/reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,,"Patiño, Reynaldo; Dawson, Dan; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.",10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006,2014/03/01/,1568-9883,"Harmful Algae","Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change",,2014,25203,0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006
/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,,"Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis",10.7930/J0MG7MDX,,,,"Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness",,2016,19374,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness
/reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,,"Beaudin, Laura; Huang, Ju-Chin",10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011,2014/10/01/,0921-8009,"Ecological Economics","Weather conditions and outdoor recreation: A study of New England ski areas",,2014,25193,1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011
/reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,"Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.","Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.",10.1371/journal.pone.0065427,,,"PLOS ONE","Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: A systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals",,2013,24490,2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0065427
/reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,"There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity.Science, this issue p. 571; see also p. 501Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.","Urban, Mark C.",10.1126/science.aaa4984,,,Science,"Accelerating extinction risk from climate change",,2015,23462,25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aaa4984
/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,,"Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.",10.1021/acs.est.7b01498,2017/08/15,0013-936X,"Environmental Science & Technology","Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment",,2017,21473,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
/reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,,"Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Edwards, T. L.; Shannon, S. R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S. R. M.; Timmermann, R.; Vaughan, D. G.",10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015,,1994-0424,"The Cryosphere","Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate",,2015,25196,34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015
/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,,"Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou",10.7930/J0VM49F2,,,,"Sea Level Rise",,2017,21570,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise
/reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,,"Burke, L.
Reytar, L.
Spalding, M.
Perry, A.",,,,,"Reefs at Risk Revisited",,2011,1400,3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9,Book,/report/wri-reefs-at-risk-2011
/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,,"Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan",10.1080/10962247.2014.996270,,2162-2906,"Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association","The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030",,2015,16106,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,,"Fann, Neal; Brennan, Terry; Dolwick, Patrick; Gamble, Janet L.; Ilacqua, Vito; Kolb, Laura; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Ziska, Lewis",10.7930/J0GQ6VP6,,,,"Ch. 3: Air quality impacts",,2016,19375,5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts
/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,,"Taylor, P.C.; W. Maslowski; J. Perlwitz; D.J. Wuebbles",10.7930/J00863GK,,,,"Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States",,2017,21569,61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic
/reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,,"Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden",10.1038/nclimate3390,09/18/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise",,2017,25206,64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3390
/reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,,"Dawson, J.; Scott, D.",10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009,2013/04/01/,0261-5177,"Tourism Management","Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector",,2013,21845,69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009
/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,,"Kopp, R.E.; D.R. Easterling; T. Hall; K. Hayhoe; R. Horton; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0GB227J,,,,"Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements",,2017,21573,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises
/reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,,"EPA,",,,,,"Guidelines for preparing economic analyses",,"2000 (revised 2014)",26085,72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4,Report,/report/epa-240-r-00-003
/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,,"Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy",10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006,2017/07/01/,0959-3780,"Global Environmental Change","Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States",,2017,21625,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006
/reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,,"CAFF,",,,,,"Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Status and Trends in Arctic Biodiversity",,2013,26086,819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce,Report,/report/arctic-biodiversity-assessment-status-trends-arctic-biodiversity
/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,,"Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.",10.1021/acs.est.5b01324,,1520-5851,"Environmental Science & Technology","U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation",,2015,19310,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324
/reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,"During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.","Bouttes, N.; J. M. Gregory; J. A. Lowe",10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1,,,"Journal of Climate","The reversibility of sea level rise",,2013,25194,924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1
/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,,"Anenberg, Susan C.; Weinberger, Kate R.; Roman, Henry; Neumann, James E.; Crimmins, Allison; Fann, Neal; Martinich, Jeremy; Kinney, Patrick L.",10.1002/2017GH000055,,2471-1403,GeoHealth,"Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change",,2017,24278,971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2017GH000055