--- - attrs: Abstract: 'Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.' Author: 'O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x Date: July 26 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: 'The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis' Type of Article: journal article Year: 2017 _record_number: 24077 _uuid: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d.yaml identifier: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d uri: /reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d - attrs: Author: 'Warren, R.; VanDerWal, J.; Price, J.; Welbergen, J. A.; Atkinson, I.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Osborn, T. J.; Jarvis, A.; Shoo, L. P.; Williams, S. E.; Lowe, J.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1887 Date: 05/12/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 678-682 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss Volume: 3 Year: 2013 _record_number: 24460 _uuid: 05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1887 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c.yaml identifier: 05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c uri: /reference/05276a46-dc40-4839-9787-8f0b4defcf1c - attrs: .publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Kopp, Robert E.; Shwom, Rachael L.; Wagner, Gernot; Yuan, Jiacan' DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000362 ISSN: 2328-4277 Journal: Earth’s Future Keywords: climate change; climate damages; integrated assessment; tipping points; tipping elements; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change; 4321 Climate impact; 4328 Risk; 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks Pages: 346-372 Title: 'Tipping elements and climate–economic shocks: Pathways toward integrated assessment' Volume: 4 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20105 _uuid: 08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016EF000362 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52.yaml identifier: 08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52 uri: /reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Pages: 271 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 430‐R‐17‐001 Title: 'Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment' URL: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21365 _uuid: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94.yaml identifier: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 uri: /reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 - attrs: Author: 'Patiño, Reynaldo; Dawson, Dan; VanLandeghem, Matthew M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006 Date: 2014/03/01/ ISSN: 1568-9883 Journal: Harmful Algae Keywords: Harmful algal bloom; Inland waters; Range expansion; Salinity; Water quality trends Pages: 1-11 Title: 'Retrospective analysis of associations between water quality and toxic blooms of golden alga (Prymnesium parvum) in Texas reservoirs: Implications for understanding dispersal mechanisms and impacts of climate change' Volume: 33 Year: 2014 _record_number: 25203 _uuid: 0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.hal.2013.12.006 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92.yaml identifier: 0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92 uri: /reference/0b8fa6b3-3b73-469f-9288-5332d530ac92 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0MG7MDX Pages: 43–68 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19374 _uuid: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9.yaml identifier: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 uri: /reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 - attrs: Author: 'Beaudin, Laura; Huang, Ju-Chin' DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011 Date: 2014/10/01/ ISSN: 0921-8009 Journal: Ecological Economics Keywords: Discrete time survival analysis; Market structure; Climate change; Weather conditions; Tourism Pages: 56-68 Title: 'Weather conditions and outdoor recreation: A study of New England ski areas' Volume: 106 Year: 2014 _record_number: 25193 _uuid: 1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.07.011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf.yaml identifier: 1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf uri: /reference/1f240a8b-51f2-4841-aa71-bdb97c735fcf - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.' Author: 'Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0065427 Issue: 6 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e65427 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: "Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: A systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals" Volume: 8 Year: 2013 _record_number: 24490 _uuid: 2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0065427 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3.yaml identifier: 2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3 uri: /reference/2116114a-1211-4afe-be2b-43a5e29f07f3 - attrs: Abstract: 'There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity.Science, this issue p. 571; see also p. 501Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.' Author: 'Urban, Mark C.' DOI: 10.1126/science.aaa4984 Issue: 6234 Journal: Science Pages: 571-573 Title: Accelerating extinction risk from climate change Volume: 348 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23462 _uuid: 25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aaa4984 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224.yaml identifier: 25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224 uri: /reference/25d5b793-3f5e-4c9f-9cb4-be71e84bf224 - attrs: Author: 'Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.' DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01498 Date: 2017/08/15 ISSN: 0013-936X Issue: 16 Journal: Environmental Science & Technology Pages: 8933-8943 Publisher: American Chemical Society Title: 'Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment' Volume: 51 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21473 _uuid: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807.yaml identifier: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 uri: /reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 - attrs: Author: 'Cornford, S. L.; Martin, D. F.; Payne, A. J.; Ng, E. G.; Le Brocq, A. M.; Gladstone, R. M.; Edwards, T. L.; Shannon, S. R.; Agosta, C.; van den Broeke, M. R.; Hellmer, H. H.; Krinner, G.; Ligtenberg, S. R. M.; Timmermann, R.; Vaughan, D. G.' DOI: 10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 ISSN: 1994-0424 Issue: 4 Journal: The Cryosphere Notes: TC Pages: 1579-1600 Publisher: Copernicus Publications Title: Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Volume: 9 Year: 2015 _record_number: 25196 _uuid: 34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6.yaml identifier: 34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6 uri: /reference/34b73570-133a-43d2-b326-521ecf7b09c6 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0VM49F2 Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 333-363 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: Sea Level Rise Year: 2017 _record_number: 21570 _uuid: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934.yaml identifier: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 uri: /reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 - attrs: .reference_type: 1 Author: "Burke, L.\rReytar, L.\rSpalding, M.\rPerry, A." ISBN: 978-1-56973-762-0 Number of Pages: 130 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: World Resources Institute Reviewer: 3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9 Title: Reefs at Risk Revisited URL: http://pdf.wri.org/reefs_at_risk_revisited.pdf Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 25: Coastal Zone FINAL","Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Appendix 1: Process FINAL","Ch. 23: Hawaii FINAL"]' _record_number: 1400 _uuid: 3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/wri-reefs-at-risk-2011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9.yaml identifier: 3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9 uri: /reference/3d9112b9-6aa1-4614-9599-6966c9591ef9 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan' DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2014.996270 ISSN: 2162-2906 Issue: 5 Journal: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Pages: 570-580 Title: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030 Volume: 65 Year: 2015 _chapter: Ch3 _record_number: 16106 _uuid: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de.yaml identifier: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de uri: /reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Fann, Neal; Brennan, Terry; Dolwick, Patrick; Gamble, Janet L.; Ilacqua, Vito; Kolb, Laura; Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Ziska, Lewis' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0GQ6VP6 Pages: 69–98 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Ch. 3: Air quality impacts' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19375 _uuid: 5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/air-quality-impacts href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690.yaml identifier: 5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 uri: /reference/5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Taylor, P.C.; W. Maslowski; J. Perlwitz; D.J. Wuebbles' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J00863GK Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 303-332 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: Arctic Changes and their Effects on Alaska and the Rest of the United States Year: 2017 _record_number: 21569 _uuid: 61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4.yaml identifier: 61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4 uri: /reference/61d6757d-3f7a-4e90-add7-b03de796c6c4 - attrs: Author: 'Underwood, B. Shane; Guido, Zack; Gudipudi, Padmini; Feinberg, Yarden' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3390 Date: 09/18/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 704 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25206 _uuid: 64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3390 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86.yaml identifier: 64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86 uri: /reference/64f34eaa-2b79-4940-b45b-1fdc2c9e5b86 - attrs: Author: 'Dawson, J.; Scott, D.' DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009 Date: 2013/04/01/ ISSN: 0261-5177 Journal: Tourism Management Keywords: Ski tourism; Climate change; Vulnerability; Adaptation; Management Pages: 244-254 Title: Managing for climate change in the alpine ski sector Volume: 35 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21845 _uuid: 69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.07.009 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec.yaml identifier: 69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec uri: /reference/69deec00-efdd-44f2-b2fd-2b92252d1bec - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Kopp, R.E.; D.R. Easterling; T. Hall; K. Hayhoe; R. Horton; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' Chapter: Ch. 15 DOI: 10.7930/J0GB227J Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 411-429 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21573 _uuid: 6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22.yaml identifier: 6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 uri: /reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Pages: various Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Report Number: EPA 240-R-00-003 Title: Guidelines for preparing economic analyses URL: https://www.epa.gov/environmental-economics/guidelines-preparing-economic-analysis-2010-revised-2014 Year: 2000 (revised 2014) _record_number: 26085 _uuid: 72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/epa-240-r-00-003 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4.yaml identifier: 72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4 uri: /reference/72d79359-0674-416f-ba9f-c0cd6e094fe4 - attrs: Author: 'Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy' DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006 Date: 2017/07/01/ ISSN: 0959-3780 Journal: Global Environmental Change Keywords: Climate change; Skiing; Snowmobiling; Snowmaking; Adaptation Pages: 1-14 Title: 'Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States' Volume: 45 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21625 _uuid: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a.yaml identifier: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a uri: /reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'CAFF,' Institution: 'Arctic Council, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF)' Notes: 'ISBN: 978-9935-431-28-8' Pages: 674 Place Published: 'Akureyri, Iceland' Title: 'Arctic Biodiversity Assessment: Status and Trends in Arctic Biodiversity' URL: https://www.caff.is/assessment-series/233-arctic-biodiversity-assessment-2013/download Year: 2013 _record_number: 26086 _uuid: 819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce reftype: Report child_publication: /report/arctic-biodiversity-assessment-status-trends-arctic-biodiversity href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce.yaml identifier: 819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce uri: /reference/819c7790-ed1c-4010-801f-9e513c72c5ce - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.' DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01324 ISSN: 1520-5851 Issue: 13 Journal: Environmental Science & Technology Pages: 7580-7588 Title: U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation Volume: 49 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19310 _uuid: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f.yaml identifier: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f uri: /reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f - attrs: Abstract: 'During the last century, global climate has been warming, and projections indicate that such a warming is likely to continue over coming decades. Most of the extra heat is stored in the ocean, resulting in thermal expansion of seawater and global mean sea level rise. Previous studies have shown that after CO2 emissions cease or CO2 concentration is stabilized, global mean surface air temperature stabilizes or decreases slowly, but sea level continues to rise. Using idealized CO2 scenario simulations with a hierarchy of models including an AOGCM and a step-response model, the authors show how the evolution of thermal expansion can be interpreted in terms of the climate energy balance and the vertical profile of ocean warming. Whereas surface temperature depends on cumulative CO2 emissions, sea level rise due to thermal expansion depends on the time profile of emissions. Sea level rise is smaller for later emissions, implying that targets to limit sea level rise would need to refer to the rate of emissions, not only to the time integral. Thermal expansion is in principle reversible, but to halt or reverse it quickly requires the radiative forcing to be reduced substantially, which is possible on centennial time scales only by geoengineering. If it could be done, the results indicate that heat would leave the ocean more readily than it entered, but even if thermal expansion were returned to zero, the geographical pattern of sea level would be altered. Therefore, despite any aggressive CO2 mitigation, regional sea level change is inevitable.' Author: 'Bouttes, N.; J. M. Gregory; J. A. Lowe' DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1 Issue: 8 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'Ocean dynamics,General circulation models' Pages: 2502-2513 Title: The reversibility of sea level rise Volume: 26 Year: 2013 _record_number: 25194 _uuid: 924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00285.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795.yaml identifier: 924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795 uri: /reference/924426db-fd9a-43d6-a9ea-3007a80e5795 - attrs: Author: 'Anenberg, Susan C.; Weinberger, Kate R.; Roman, Henry; Neumann, James E.; Crimmins, Allison; Fann, Neal; Martinich, Jeremy; Kinney, Patrick L.' DOI: 10.1002/2017GH000055 ISSN: 2471-1403 Issue: 3 Journal: GeoHealth Keywords: climate change; aeroallergens; asthma; 1630 Impacts of global change; 6304 Benefit-cost analysis; 9350 North America Pages: 80-92 Title: Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change Volume: 1 Year: 2017 _record_number: 24278 _uuid: 971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GH000055 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba.yaml identifier: 971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba uri: /reference/971ee908-7da0-416e-8b6c-a72984d129ba - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Chang, Howard H.; Hao, Hua; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt' DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.037 ISSN: 0004-6981 Journal: Atmospheric Environment Pages: 290-297 Title: A statistical modeling framework for projecting future ambient ozone and its health impact due to climate change Volume: 89 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch3 _record_number: 16102 _uuid: 9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.02.037 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1.yaml identifier: 9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1 uri: /reference/9915b0f2-cf17-4aa3-a36f-32d18dfa11b1 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: 'Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; D. J. Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson ' ISBN: "023117456X\r978-0231174565" Place Published: New York Publisher: Columbia University Press Title: 'Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus' Year: 2015 _record_number: 25465 _uuid: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 reftype: Book child_publication: /book/economic-risks-climate-change-an-american-prospectus href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16.yaml identifier: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 uri: /reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 - attrs: .publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.' Author: 'DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David' DOI: 10.1038/nature17145 Date: 03/31/print ISSN: 0028-0836 Issue: 7596 Journal: Nature Pages: 591-597 Title: Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise Volume: 531 Year: 2016 _record_number: 19404 _uuid: ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature17145 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18.yaml identifier: ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 uri: /reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 - attrs: Abstract: 'Reefs and People at Risk Increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere put shallow, warm-water coral reef ecosystems, and the people who depend upon them at risk from two key global environmental stresses: 1) elevated sea surface temperature (that can cause coral bleaching and related mortality), and 2) ocean acidification. These global stressors: cannot be avoided by local management, compound local stressors, and hasten the loss of ecosystem services. Impacts to people will be most grave where a) human dependence on coral reef ecosystems is high, b) sea surface temperature reaches critical levels soonest, and c) ocean acidification levels are most severe. Where these elements align, swift action will be needed to protect people’s lives and livelihoods, but such action must be informed by data and science. An Indicator Approach Designing policies to offset potential harm to coral reef ecosystems and people requires a better understanding of where CO2-related global environmental stresses could cause the most severe impacts. Mapping indicators has been proposed as a way of combining natural and social science data to identify policy actions even when the needed science is relatively nascent. To identify where people are at risk and where more science is needed, we map indicators of biological, physical and social science factors to understand how human dependence on coral reef ecosystems will be affected by globally-driven threats to corals expected in a high-CO2 world. Western Mexico, Micronesia, Indonesia and parts of Australia have high human dependence and will likely face severe combined threats. As a region, Southeast Asia is particularly at risk. Many of the countries most dependent upon coral reef ecosystems are places for which we have the least robust data on ocean acidification. These areas require new data and interdisciplinary scientific research to help coral reef-dependent human communities better prepare for a high CO2 world.' Author: 'Pendleton, Linwood; Comte, Adrien; Langdon, Chris; Ekstrom, Julia A.; Cooley, Sarah R.; Suatoni, Lisa; Beck, Michael W.; Brander, Luke M.; Burke, Lauretta; Cinner, Josh E.; Doherty, Carolyn; Edwards, Peter E. T.; Gledhill, Dwight; Jiang, Li-Qing; van Hooidonk, Ruben J.; Teh, Louise; Waldbusser, George G.; Ritter, Jessica' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0164699 Issue: 11 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e0164699 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: 'Coral reefs and people in a high-CO2 world: Where can science make a difference to people?' Volume: 11 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26145 _uuid: b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0164699 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7.yaml identifier: b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7 uri: /reference/b07595f7-51db-4005-801f-29225fa042f7 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Burakowski, Elizabeth; Magnusson, Matthew' Institution: Natural Resources Defense Council Pages: 33 Place Published: New York Title: Climate impacts on the winter tourism economy in the United States URL: https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/climate-impacts-winter-tourism-report.pdf Year: 2012 _record_number: 21879 _uuid: b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-impacts-on-winter-tourism-economy-united-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6.yaml identifier: b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6 uri: /reference/b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6 - attrs: Abstract: 'Tidal floods (i.e., “nuisance” flooding) are occurring more often during seasonal high tides or minor wind events, and the frequency is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. During these flood events, coastal communities’ roads are often impassable or difficult to pass, thus impacting routine transport needs. This study identifies vulnerable roads and quantifies the risk from nuisance flooding in the Eastern United States by combining public road information from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Performance Monitoring System with flood frequency maps, tidal gauge historic observations, and future projections of annual minor tidal flood frequencies and durations. The results indicate that tidal nuisance flooding across the East Coast threatens 7508 miles (12,083 km) of roadways including over 400 miles (644 km) of interstate roadways. From 1996–2005 to 2006–2015, there was a 90% average increase in nuisance floods. With sea level rise, nuisance-flood frequency is projected to grow at all locations assessed. The total induced vehicle-hours of delay due to nuisance flooding currently exceed 100 million hours annually. Nearly 160 million vehicle-hours of delay across the East Coast by 2020 (85% increase from 2010); 1.2 billion vehicle-hours by 2060 (126% increase from 2010); and 3.4 billion vehicle-hours by 2100 (392% increase from 2010) are projected under an intermediate low sea-level-rise scenario. By 2056–2065, nuisance flooding could occur almost daily at sites in Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, and Florida under an intermediate sea-level-rise scenario.' Author: 'Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Cattaneo, Lia R.; Sweet, William; Mansfield, Theodore' DOI: 10.1177/0361198118756366 Journal: Transportation Research Record Title: Recent and future outlooks for nuisance flooding impacts on roadways on the US East Coast Year: 2018 _record_number: 26046 _uuid: b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1177/0361198118756366 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1.yaml identifier: b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1 uri: /reference/b4808700-a94a-44da-b2bb-d360a83146f1 - attrs: Abstract: "The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100." Author: 'Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0082579 Issue: 12 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e82579 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: 'Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios' Volume: 8 Year: 2013 _record_number: 24344 _uuid: c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0082579 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687.yaml identifier: c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687 uri: /reference/c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687 - attrs: Abstract: 'A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.' Author: 'Liverman, Diana' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5 Date: March 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 173-186 Title: 'U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 135 Year: 2016 _record_number: 22064 _uuid: d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0.yaml identifier: d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0 uri: /reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Beard, Charles B.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Barker, Christopher M.; Garofalo, Jada F.; Hahn, Micah; Hayden, Mary; Monaghan, Andrew J.; Ogden, Nicholas H.; Schramm, Paul J.' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0765C7V Pages: 129–156 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: ' U.S. Global Change Research Program' Title: 'Ch. 5: Vector-borne diseases ' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19377 _uuid: dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/vectorborne-diseases href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd.yaml identifier: dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd uri: /reference/dbfb7cd9-7c82-43ea-a4e2-9e2eb0b851fd - attrs: Author: 'Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3411 Date: 11/02/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 774-782 Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' Title: Quantifying the economic risks of climate change Type of Article: Review Article Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 24496 _uuid: e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3411 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558.yaml identifier: e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558 uri: /reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558 - attrs: Author: 'Kingsley, Samantha L.; Melissa N. Eliot; Julia Gold; Robert R. Vanderslice; Gregory A. Wellenius' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1408826 Issue: 4 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 460-467 Title: Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island Volume: 124 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21760 _uuid: ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1408826 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b.yaml identifier: ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b uri: /reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b - attrs: Abstract: 'Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).' Author: 'Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor' DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369 Issue: 6345 Journal: Science Pages: 1362-1369 Title: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States Volume: 356 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23965 _uuid: fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aal4369 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16.yaml identifier: fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16 uri: /reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16