uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.","Liverman, Diana",10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5,"March 01",1573-1480,1,"Climatic Change",173-186,"U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context","journal article",135,2016,22064,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
/reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,,"Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.",10.1073/pnas.1611056113,2016/12/27/,"0027-8424, 1091-6490",2,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",E122-E131,"Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation",,114,2017,22252,df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1611056113
/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,,"Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances",10.1038/nclimate3411,11/02/online,,,"Nature Climate Change",774-782,"Quantifying the economic risks of climate change","Review Article",7,2017,24496,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3411
/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.","Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D.",10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x,"August 30",1573-1480,,"Climatic Change",,"Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities","journal article",,2016,24145,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,,"Kingsley, Samantha L.; Melissa N. Eliot; Julia Gold; Robert R. Vanderslice; Gregory A. Wellenius",10.1289/ehp.1408826,,,4,"Environmental Health Perspectives",460-467,"Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island",,124,2016,21760,ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/ehp.1408826
/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).","Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor",10.1126/science.aal4369,,,6345,Science,1362-1369,"Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States",,356,2017,23965,fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aal4369
/reference/fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76,fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76,"The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.","Urban, Daniel W.; Justin Sheffield; David B. Lobell",10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003,,1748-9326,4,"Environmental Research Letters",045003,"The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios",,10,2015,24462,fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76,"Journal Article",/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003
/reference/fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6,fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6,,"EPA,",,,,,,various,"Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds (Final Report)",,,2013,25219,fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6,Report,/report/watershed-modeling-assess-sensitivity-streamflow-nutrient-sediment-loads-potential-climate-change-urban-development-20-us-watersheds-final-report