uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Journal,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.","O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel",10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x,"July 26",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis","journal article",2017,24077,0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
/reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f,09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f,"In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.","Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang",10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1,"July 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: An uncertainty analysis","journal article",2015,24477,09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1
/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,,"EPA,",,,,,"Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment",,2017,21365,0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94,Report,/report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017
/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,,"Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis",10.7930/J0MG7MDX,,,,"Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness",,2016,19374,1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9,"Book Section",/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness
/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,,"Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.",10.1021/acs.est.7b01498,2017/08/15,0013-936X,"Environmental Science & Technology","Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment",,2017,21473,28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
/reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b,2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b,,"Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.",10.1038/srep40845,01/18/online,,"Scientific Reports","Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States",Article,2017,25195,2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/srep40845
/reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b,3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b,,"Executive Office of the President,",,,,,"Climate change: Fiscal risks facing the federal government",,2016,24524,3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b,Report,/report/climate-change-fiscal-risks-facing-federal-government
/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,,"Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou",10.7930/J0VM49F2,,,,"Sea Level Rise",,2017,21570,3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise
/reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad,49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad,"Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.","Beach, Robert H. ; Yongxia Cai; Allison Thomson; Xuesong Zhang; Russell Jones; Bruce A. McCarl; Allison Crimmins; Jeremy Martinich; Jefferson Cole; Sara Ohrel; Benjamin DeAngelo; James McFarland; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert",10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004,,1748-9326,"Environmental Research Letters","Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: Benefits of global climate stabilization",,2015,23500,49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad,"Journal Article",/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004
/reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd,4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd,,"McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S.",10.1002/eap.1420,,1939-5582,"Ecological Applications","Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?",,2017,21973,4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/eap.1420
/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,,"Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan",10.1080/10962247.2014.996270,,2162-2906,"Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association","The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030",,2015,16106,54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
/reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb,5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb,"Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.","Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay; Kirshen, Paul; Bosma, Kirk; Martinich, Jeremy",10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z,"March 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy","journal article",2015,24012,5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z
/reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033,79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033,,"Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason",10.1038/nclimate3259,04/03/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes",,2017,24507,79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3259
/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,,"Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy",10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006,2017/07/01/,0959-3780,"Global Environmental Change","Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States",,2017,21625,80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006
/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,,"Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.",10.1021/acs.est.5b01324,,1520-5851,"Environmental Science & Technology","U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation",,2015,19310,81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324
/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,,"Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles",10.7930/J0WH2N54,,,,"Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections",,2017,21562,9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections
/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,,"Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; D. J. Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson ",,,,,"Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus",,2015,25465,9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16,Book,/book/economic-risks-climate-change-an-american-prospectus
/reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2,b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2,,"Melvin, A. M.; Murray, J.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J. A.; Rennels, L.; Rupp, T. S.",10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2,Apr,0165-0009,"Climatic Change","Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate.",,2017,22254,b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2
/reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a,b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a,,"DeAngelo, B.; J. Edmonds; D.W. Fahey; B.M. Sanderson",10.7930/J0M32SZG,,,,"Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation",,2017,21572,b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways
/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,,"Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams",,,,,"Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector",,2015,23629,bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0,Report,/report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector
/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.","Liverman, Diana",10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5,"March 01",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context","journal article",2016,22064,d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
/reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,,"Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.",10.1073/pnas.1611056113,2016/12/27/,"0027-8424, 1091-6490","Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America","Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation",,2017,22252,df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1611056113
/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,,"Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances",10.1038/nclimate3411,11/02/online,,"Nature Climate Change","Quantifying the economic risks of climate change","Review Article",2017,24496,e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3411
/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.","Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D.",10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x,"August 30",1573-1480,"Climatic Change","Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities","journal article",2016,24145,ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x