--- - attrs: Abstract: 'Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.' Author: 'O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x Date: July 26 ISSN: 1573-1480 Journal: Climatic Change Title: 'The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis' Type of Article: journal article Year: 2017 _record_number: 24077 _uuid: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d.yaml identifier: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d uri: /reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d - attrs: Abstract: 'In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.' Author: 'Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1 Date: July 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 67-81 Title: 'Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: An uncertainty analysis' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 131 Year: 2015 _record_number: 24477 _uuid: 09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f.yaml identifier: 09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f uri: /reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'EPA,' Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Pages: 271 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: EPA 430‐R‐17‐001 Title: 'Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment' URL: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21365 _uuid: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94.yaml identifier: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 uri: /reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis' Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment' DOI: 10.7930/J0MG7MDX Pages: 43–68 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness' Year: 2016 _record_number: 19374 _uuid: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9.yaml identifier: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 uri: /reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9 - attrs: Author: 'Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.' DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01498 Date: 2017/08/15 ISSN: 0013-936X Issue: 16 Journal: Environmental Science & Technology Pages: 8933-8943 Publisher: American Chemical Society Title: 'Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment' Volume: 51 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21473 _uuid: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807.yaml identifier: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 uri: /reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807 - attrs: Author: 'Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.' DOI: 10.1038/srep40845 Date: 01/18/online Journal: Scientific Reports Pages: 40845 Publisher: The Author(s) Title: Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States Type of Article: Article Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25195 _uuid: 2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/srep40845 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b.yaml identifier: 2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b uri: /reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Executive Office of the President,' Institution: 'The White House, Office of Management and Budget' Pages: 34 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Title: 'Climate change: Fiscal risks facing the federal government' URL: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/reports/omb_climate_change_fiscal_risk_report.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 24524 _uuid: 3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-fiscal-risks-facing-federal-government href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b.yaml identifier: 3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b uri: /reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0VM49F2 Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 333-363 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: Sea Level Rise Year: 2017 _record_number: 21570 _uuid: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934.yaml identifier: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 uri: /reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 - attrs: Abstract: 'Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.' Author: 'Beach, Robert H. ; Yongxia Cai; Allison Thomson; Xuesong Zhang; Russell Jones; Bruce A. McCarl; Allison Crimmins; Jeremy Martinich; Jefferson Cole; Sara Ohrel; Benjamin DeAngelo; James McFarland; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 9 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 095004 Title: 'Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: Benefits of global climate stabilization' Volume: 10 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23500 _uuid: 49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad.yaml identifier: 49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad uri: /reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad - attrs: Author: 'McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S.' DOI: 10.1002/eap.1420 ISSN: 1939-5582 Issue: 1 Journal: Ecological Applications Keywords: climate change; ecosections; lagged response; negative feedback; nonstationarity; water-balance deficit Pages: 26-36 Title: 'Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?' Volume: 27 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21973 _uuid: 4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/eap.1420 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd.yaml identifier: 4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd uri: /reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan' DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2014.996270 ISSN: 2162-2906 Issue: 5 Journal: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association Pages: 570-580 Title: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030 Volume: 65 Year: 2015 _chapter: Ch3 _record_number: 16106 _uuid: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de.yaml identifier: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de uri: /reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de - attrs: Abstract: 'Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.' Author: 'Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay; Kirshen, Paul; Bosma, Kirk; Martinich, Jeremy' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z Date: March 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 337-349 Title: 'Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 129 Year: 2015 _record_number: 24012 _uuid: 5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb.yaml identifier: 5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb uri: /reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb - attrs: Author: 'Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3259 Date: 04/03/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 326-330 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 24507 _uuid: 79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3259 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033.yaml identifier: 79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033 uri: /reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033 - attrs: Author: 'Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy' DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006 Date: 2017/07/01/ ISSN: 0959-3780 Journal: Global Environmental Change Keywords: Climate change; Skiing; Snowmobiling; Snowmaking; Adaptation Pages: 1-14 Title: 'Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States' Volume: 45 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21625 _uuid: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a.yaml identifier: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a uri: /reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.' DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01324 ISSN: 1520-5851 Issue: 13 Journal: Environmental Science & Technology Pages: 7580-7588 Title: U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation Volume: 49 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19310 _uuid: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f.yaml identifier: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f uri: /reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0WH2N54 Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 133-160 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21562 _uuid: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771.yaml identifier: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 uri: /reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: 'Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; D. J. Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson ' ISBN: "023117456X\r978-0231174565" Place Published: New York Publisher: Columbia University Press Title: 'Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus' Year: 2015 _record_number: 25465 _uuid: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 reftype: Book child_publication: /book/economic-risks-climate-change-an-american-prospectus href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16.yaml identifier: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 uri: /reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16 - attrs: Author: 'Melvin, A. M.; Murray, J.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J. A.; Rennels, L.; Rupp, T. S.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2 Date: Apr ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 4 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 783-795 Title: Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate. Volume: 141 Year: 2017 _record_number: 22254 _uuid: b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2.yaml identifier: b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2 uri: /reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'DeAngelo, B.; J. Edmonds; D.W. Fahey; B.M. Sanderson' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0M32SZG Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 393-410 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation Year: 2017 _record_number: 21572 _uuid: b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a.yaml identifier: b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a uri: /reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams' Institution: USDA Economic Research Service Pages: 119 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: Economic Research Report No. (ERR-201) Title: 'Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector' URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=45496 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23629 _uuid: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0.yaml identifier: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0 uri: /reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0