---
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Understanding how impacts may differ across alternative levels of future climate change is necessary to inform mitigation and adaptation measures. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE) project assesses the differences in impacts between two specific climate futures: a higher emissions future with global average temperature increasing about 3.7 °C above pre-industrial levels toward the end of the century and a moderate emissions future with global average warming of about 2.5 °C. BRACE studies in this special issue quantify avoided impacts on physical, managed, and societal systems in terms of extreme events, health, agriculture, and tropical cyclones. Here we describe the conceptual framework and design of BRACE and synthesize its results. Methodologically, the project combines climate modeling, statistical analysis, and impact assessment and draws heavily on large ensembles using the Community Earth System Model. It addresses uncertainty in future societal change by employing two pathways for future socioeconomic development. Results show that the benefits of reduced climate change within this framework vary substantially across types of impacts. In many cases, especially related to extreme heat events, there are substantial benefits to mitigation. The benefits for some heat extremes are statistically significant in some regions as early as the 2020s and are widespread by mid-century. Benefits are more modest for agriculture and exposure to some health risks. Benefits are negative for agriculture when CO2 fertilization is incorporated. For several societal impacts, the effect on outcomes of alternative future societal development pathways is substantially larger than the effect of the two climate scenarios.'
    Author: 'O’Neill, Brian C.; M. Done, James; Gettelman, Andrew; Lawrence, Peter; Lehner, Flavio; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Lei; J. Monaghan, Andrew; Oleson, Keith; Ren, Xiaolin; M. Sanderson, Benjamin; Tebaldi, Claudia; Weitzel, Matthias; Xu, Yangyang; Anderson, Brooke; Fix, Miranda J.; Levis, Samuel'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
    Date: July 26
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Title: 'The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 24077
    _uuid: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d.yaml
  identifier: 0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d
  uri: /reference/0006123e-10a3-4501-a89c-95a7921a9c3d
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.'
    Author: 'Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1
    Date: July 01
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Pages: 67-81
    Title: 'Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: An uncertainty analysis'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 131
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 24477
    _uuid: 09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f.yaml
  identifier: 09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f
  uri: /reference/09f73f2d-8a26-469f-9607-25e2fd05539f
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'EPA,'
    Institution: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
    Pages: 271
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Series Volume: EPA 430‐R‐17‐001
    Title: 'Multi-model Framework for Quantitative Sectoral Impacts Analysis: A Technical Report for the Fourth National Climate Assessment'
    URL: https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=335095
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21365
    _uuid: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/epa-multi-model-framework-for-quantitative-sectoral-impacts-analysis-2017
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94.yaml
  identifier: 0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94
  uri: /reference/0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 7
    Author: 'Sarofim, Marcus C.; Saha, Shubhayu; Hawkins, Michelle D.; Mills, David M.; Hess, Jeremy; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick; Schwartz, Joel; St. Juliana, Alexis'
    Book Title: 'The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment'
    DOI: 10.7930/J0MG7MDX
    Pages: 43–68
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program
    Title: 'Ch. 2: Temperature-related death and illness'
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 19374
    _uuid: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9
    reftype: Book Section
  child_publication: /report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016/chapter/temperature-related-death-and-illness
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9.yaml
  identifier: 1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9
  uri: /reference/1ad1d794-bc57-4e48-ab28-0e2b65767cb9
- attrs:
    Author: 'Chapra, Steven C.; Boehlert, Brent; Fant, Charles; Bierman, Victor J.; Henderson, Jim; Mills, David; Mas, Diane M. L.; Rennels, Lisa; Jantarasami, Lesley; Martinich, Jeremy; Strzepek, Kenneth M.; Paerl, Hans W.'
    DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
    Date: 2017/08/15
    ISSN: 0013-936X
    Issue: 16
    Journal: Environmental Science & Technology
    Pages: 8933-8943
    Publisher: American Chemical Society
    Title: 'Climate change impacts on harmful algal blooms in U.S. freshwaters: A screening-level assessment'
    Volume: 51
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21473
    _uuid: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.7b01498
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807.yaml
  identifier: 28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807
  uri: /reference/28077cd1-c29f-48ae-a068-2cdcef880807
- attrs:
    Author: 'Cho, Sung Ju; McCarl, Bruce A.'
    DOI: 10.1038/srep40845
    Date: 01/18/online
    Journal: Scientific Reports
    Pages: 40845
    Publisher: The Author(s)
    Title: Climate change influences on crop mix shifts in the United States
    Type of Article: Article
    Volume: 7
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 25195
    _uuid: 2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1038/srep40845
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b.yaml
  identifier: 2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b
  uri: /reference/2cc7d464-2d35-46c7-abd7-2ca6da85496b
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'Executive Office of the President,'
    Institution: 'The White House, Office of Management and Budget'
    Pages: 34
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Title: 'Climate change: Fiscal risks facing the federal government'
    URL: https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/omb/reports/omb_climate_change_fiscal_risk_report.pdf
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 24524
    _uuid: 3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/climate-change-fiscal-risks-facing-federal-government
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b.yaml
  identifier: 3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b
  uri: /reference/3592f4d3-26dc-401c-8d9e-03791923637b
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 7
    Author: 'Sweet, W.V.; R. Horton; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; A. Romanou'
    Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I'
    DOI: 10.7930/J0VM49F2
    Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock'
    Pages: 333-363
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA'
    Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program
    Title: Sea Level Rise
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21570
    _uuid: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934
    reftype: Book Section
  child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/sea-level-rise
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934.yaml
  identifier: 3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934
  uri: /reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015–2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.'
    Author: 'Beach, Robert H. ; Yongxia Cai; Allison Thomson; Xuesong Zhang; Russell Jones; Bruce A. McCarl; Allison Crimmins; Jeremy Martinich; Jefferson Cole; Sara Ohrel; Benjamin DeAngelo; James McFarland; Kenneth Strzepek; Brent Boehlert'
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    Issue: 9
    Journal: Environmental Research Letters
    Pages: 095004
    Title: 'Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: Benefits of global climate stabilization'
    Volume: 10
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 23500
    _uuid: 49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095004
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad.yaml
  identifier: 49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad
  uri: /reference/49d89afb-f314-4386-8d38-213e66de8cad
- attrs:
    Author: 'McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S.'
    DOI: 10.1002/eap.1420
    ISSN: 1939-5582
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Ecological Applications
    Keywords: climate change; ecosections; lagged response; negative feedback; nonstationarity; water-balance deficit
    Pages: 26-36
    Title: 'Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?'
    Volume: 27
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21973
    _uuid: 4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1002/eap.1420
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd.yaml
  identifier: 4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd
  uri: /reference/4d1a8689-4d86-4a2f-996a-1702f2de6ddd
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 0
    Author: 'Fann, Neal; Nolte, Christopher G.; Dolwick, Patrick; Spero, Tanya L.; Curry Brown, Amanda; Phillips, Sharon; Anenberg, Susan'
    DOI: 10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
    ISSN: 2162-2906
    Issue: 5
    Journal: Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association
    Pages: 570-580
    Title: The geographic distribution and economic value of climate change-related ozone health impacts in the United States in 2030
    Volume: 65
    Year: 2015
    _chapter: Ch3
    _record_number: 16106
    _uuid: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1080/10962247.2014.996270
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de.yaml
  identifier: 54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de
  uri: /reference/54a66159-1675-43bb-b5d3-a9b7f283e4de
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion.'
    Author: 'Neumann, James E.; Emanuel, Kerry; Ravela, Sai; Ludwig, Lindsay; Kirshen, Paul; Bosma, Kirk; Martinich, Jeremy'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z
    Date: March 01
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Pages: 337-349
    Title: 'Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: New economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 129
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 24012
    _uuid: 5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb.yaml
  identifier: 5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb
  uri: /reference/5b27123a-8c6d-4e85-bd48-841436fdf9eb
- attrs:
    Author: 'Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter; Lowe, Jason'
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3259
    Date: 04/03/online
    Journal: Nature Climate Change
    Pages: 326-330
    Publisher: Nature Publishing Group
    Title: Early benefits of mitigation in risk of regional climate extremes
    Volume: 7
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 24507
    _uuid: 79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3259
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033.yaml
  identifier: 79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033
  uri: /reference/79a24453-16b4-4acf-9a83-cc902de94033
- attrs:
    Author: 'Wobus, Cameron; Small, Eric E.; Hosterman, Heather; Mills, David; Stein, Justin; Rissing, Matthew; Jones, Russell; Duckworth, Michael; Hall, Ronald; Kolian, Michael; Creason, Jared; Martinich, Jeremy'
    DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006
    Date: 2017/07/01/
    ISSN: 0959-3780
    Journal: Global Environmental Change
    Keywords: Climate change; Skiing; Snowmobiling; Snowmaking; Adaptation
    Pages: 1-14
    Title: 'Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States'
    Volume: 45
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21625
    _uuid: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a.yaml
  identifier: 80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a
  uri: /reference/80dd6dfe-4dea-4253-a65b-53f620805f9a
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 0
    Author: 'Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K.; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E.'
    DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.5b01324
    ISSN: 1520-5851
    Issue: 13
    Journal: Environmental Science & Technology
    Pages: 7580-7588
    Title: U.S. air quality and health benefits from avoided climate change under greenhouse gas mitigation
    Volume: 49
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 19310
    _uuid: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1021/acs.est.5b01324
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f.yaml
  identifier: 81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f
  uri: /reference/81f96860-7931-48b6-9d57-32682728636f
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 7
    Author: 'Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles'
    Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I'
    DOI: 10.7930/J0WH2N54
    Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock'
    Pages: 133-160
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA'
    Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program
    Title: 'Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections'
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21562
    _uuid: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771
    reftype: Book Section
  child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771.yaml
  identifier: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771
  uri: /reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 9
    Author: 'Houser, Trevor; Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Larsen, Kate; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; D. J. Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson '
    ISBN: "023117456X\r978-0231174565"
    Place Published: New York
    Publisher: Columbia University Press
    Title: 'Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus'
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 25465
    _uuid: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16
    reftype: Book
  child_publication: /book/economic-risks-climate-change-an-american-prospectus
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16.yaml
  identifier: 9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16
  uri: /reference/9f559c9b-c78e-4593-bcbe-f07661d29e16
- attrs:
    Author: 'Melvin, A. M.; Murray, J.; Boehlert, B.; Martinich, J. A.; Rennels, L.; Rupp, T. S.'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2
    Date: Apr
    ISSN: 0165-0009
    Issue: 4
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Pages: 783-795
    Title: Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate.
    Volume: 141
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 22254
    _uuid: b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2.yaml
  identifier: b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2
  uri: /reference/b7e764c8-8912-4d18-8dd3-1555ab8da1c2
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 7
    Author: 'DeAngelo, B.; J. Edmonds; D.W. Fahey; B.M. Sanderson'
    Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I'
    DOI: 10.7930/J0M32SZG
    Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock'
    Pages: 393-410
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA'
    Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program
    Title: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 21572
    _uuid: b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a
    reftype: Book Section
  child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a.yaml
  identifier: b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a
  uri: /reference/b87babf4-a67d-4e2c-8a8d-a660b34aec3a
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'Marshall, Elizabeth; Marcel Aillery; Scott Malcolm; Ryan Williams'
    Institution: USDA Economic Research Service
    Pages: 119
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Series Volume: Economic Research Report No. (ERR-201)
    Title: 'Climate Change, Water Scarcity, and Adaptation in the U.S. Fieldcrop Sector'
    URL: https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details/?pubid=45496
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 23629
    _uuid: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/climate-change-water-scarcity-adaptation-us-fieldcrop-sector
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0.yaml
  identifier: bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0
  uri: /reference/bc6c6b92-e049-4b86-b772-8d35032d3cb0
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'A number of knowledge gaps and research priorities emerged during the third US National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Several are also gaps in the latest IPCC WG2 report. These omissions reflect major gaps in the underlying research base from which these assessments draw. These include the challenge of estimating the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and responses to climate change and the need for research on climate impacts on important sectors such as manufacturing and services. Climate impacts also need to be assessed within an international context in an increasingly connected and globalized world. Climate change is being experienced not only through changes within a locality but also through the impacts of climate change in other regions connected through trade, prices, and commodity chains, migratory species, human mobility and networked communications. Also under-researched are the connections and tradeoffs between responses to climate change at or across different scales, especially between adaptation and mitigation or between climate responses and other environmental and social policies. This paper discusses some of these research priorities, illustrating their significance through analysis of economic and international connections and case studies of responses to climate change. It also critically reflects on the process of developing research needs as part of the assessment process.'
    Author: 'Liverman, Diana'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
    Date: March 01
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Issue: 1
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Pages: 173-186
    Title: 'U.S. national climate assessment gaps and research needs: Overview, the economy and the international context'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Volume: 135
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 22064
    _uuid: d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-015-1464-5
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0.yaml
  identifier: d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0
  uri: /reference/d6eb34ef-1bfb-4b90-a397-f6bb363086a0
- attrs:
    Author: 'Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.'
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1611056113
    Database Provider: www.pnas.org
    Date: 2016/12/27/
    ISSN: '0027-8424, 1091-6490'
    Issue: 2
    Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
    Keywords: adaptation; Alaska; climate change; damages; infrastructure
    Language: en
    Pages: E122-E131
    Title: Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
    Volume: 114
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 22252
    _uuid: df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1611056113
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51.yaml
  identifier: df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51
  uri: /reference/df6fcad4-f0ea-4c60-97e1-ae2a40455f51
- attrs:
    Author: 'Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances'
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3411
    Date: 11/02/online
    Journal: Nature Climate Change
    Pages: 774-782
    Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.'
    Title: Quantifying the economic risks of climate change
    Type of Article: Review Article
    Volume: 7
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 24496
    _uuid: e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3411
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558.yaml
  identifier: e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558
  uri: /reference/e311cbe3-cf61-445a-ae6f-130056df0558
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061–2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario—going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.'
    Author: 'Anderson, G. Brooke; Oleson, Keith W.; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D.'
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
    Date: August 30
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Journal: Climatic Change
    Title: 'Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities'
    Type of Article: journal article
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 24145
    _uuid: ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-016-1779-x
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b.yaml
  identifier: ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b
  uri: /reference/ea2ea20a-5d62-49ac-a89b-9a7951711a1b
- attrs:
    Author: 'Kingsley, Samantha L.; Melissa N. Eliot; Julia Gold; Robert R. Vanderslice; Gregory A. Wellenius'
    DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1408826
    Issue: 4
    Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives
    Pages: 460-467
    Title: Current and projected heat-related morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island
    Volume: 124
    Year: 2016
    _record_number: 21760
    _uuid: ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1408826
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b.yaml
  identifier: ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b
  uri: /reference/ec9926c5-6257-49b3-8bfd-c9a02c0bf75b
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'Episodes of severe weather in the United States, such as the present abundance of rainfall in California, are brandished as tangible evidence of the future costs of current climate trends. Hsiang et al. collected national data documenting the responses in six economic sectors to short-term weather fluctuations. These data were integrated with probabilistic distributions from a set of global climate models and used to estimate future costs during the remainder of this century across a range of scenarios (see the Perspective by Pizer). In terms of overall effects on gross domestic product, the authors predict negative impacts in the southern United States and positive impacts in some parts of the Pacific Northwest and New England.Science, this issue p. 1362; see also p. 1330Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).'
    Author: 'Hsiang, Solomon; Kopp, Robert; Jina, Amir; Rising, James; Delgado, Michael; Mohan, Shashank; Rasmussen, D. J.; Muir-Wood, Robert; Wilson, Paul; Oppenheimer, Michael; Larsen, Kate; Houser, Trevor'
    DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369
    Issue: 6345
    Journal: Science
    Pages: 1362-1369
    Title: Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States
    Volume: 356
    Year: 2017
    _record_number: 23965
    _uuid: fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aal4369
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16.yaml
  identifier: fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16
  uri: /reference/fad9e8ec-8951-4daa-9a9c-e093ef86af16
- attrs:
    Abstract: 'The United States is the largest producer of maize in the world, a crop for which demand continues to rise rapidly. Past studies have projected that climate change will negatively impact mean maize yields in this region, while at the same time increasing yield variability. However, some have questioned the accuracy of these projections because they are often based on indirect measures of soil moisture, have failed to explicitly capture the potential interactions between temperature and soil moisture availability, and often omit the beneficial effects of elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) on transpiration efficiency. Here we use a new detailed dataset on field-level yields in Iowa, Indiana, and Illinois, along with fine-resolution daily weather data and moisture reconstructions, to evaluate the combined effects of moisture and heat on maize yields in the region. Projected climate change scenarios over this region from a suite of CMIP5 models are then used to assess future impacts and the differences between two contrasting emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We show that (i) statistical models which explicitly account for interactions between heat and moisture, which have not been represented in previous empirical models, lead to significant model improvement and significantly higher projected yield variability under warming and drying trends than when accounting for each factor independently; (ii) inclusion of the benefits of elevated CO 2 significantly reduces impacts, particularly for yield variability; and (iii) net damages from climate change and CO 2 become larger for the higher emission scenario in the latter half of the 21st century, and significantly so by the end of century.'
    Author: 'Urban, Daniel W.; Justin Sheffield; David B. Lobell'
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    Issue: 4
    Journal: Environmental Research Letters
    Pages: 045003
    Title: The impacts of future climate and carbon dioxide changes on the average and variability of US maize yields under two emission scenarios
    Volume: 10
    Year: 2015
    _record_number: 24462
    _uuid: fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76
    reftype: Journal Article
  child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/045003
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76.yaml
  identifier: fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76
  uri: /reference/fba7132f-b922-4228-8ad5-6336d0c3de76
- attrs:
    .reference_type: 10
    Author: 'EPA,'
    Institution: ' U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'
    Pages: various
    Place Published: 'Washington, DC'
    Report Number: EPA/600/R-12/058F
    Title: 'Watershed Modeling to Assess the Sensitivity of Streamflow, Nutrient, and Sediment Loads to Potential Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds (Final Report)'
    URL: https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/global/recordisplay.cfm?deid=256912
    Year: 2013
    _record_number: 25219
    _uuid: fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6
    reftype: Report
  child_publication: /report/watershed-modeling-assess-sensitivity-streamflow-nutrient-sediment-loads-potential-climate-change-urban-development-20-us-watersheds-final-report
  href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6.yaml
  identifier: fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6
  uri: /reference/fc630495-cb5f-496c-a759-87166b8569a6