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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-28-2";
   gcis:findingNumber "28.2"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement " <p>Successful adaptation has been hindered by the assumption that climate conditions are and will be similar to those in the past. Incorporating information on current and future climate conditions into design guidelines, standards, policies, and practices would reduce risk and adverse impacts. (<em>High Confidence</em>)</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>The scope for this chapter was determined by the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Federal Steering Committee, which is made up of representatives from the U.S. Global Change Research Program member agencies. The scope was also informed by research needs identified in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3). Authors for this NCA4 chapter were selected to represent a range of public- and private-sector perspectives and experiences relevant to adaptation planning and implementation.</p> <p>This chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by chapter authors during teleconferences, e-mail exchanges, and a day-long in-person meeting. These discussions were informed by a comprehensive literature review of the evidence base for the current state of adaptation in the United States. The author team obtained input from outside experts in several important areas to supplement its expertise.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>The assumption that the historical record of events and variability will be the same in the future is called the stationarity assumption{{< tbib '27' 'c52f2539-9c5e-4ead-b8b7-f1884c5d662e' >}} and has guided planning for climate and weather events in most places for most of recorded history. The evidence is strong that the stationarity assumption is no longer valid for all impacts and variability in all locations, because climate change is altering both the events and their variability.{{< tbib '3' '666daffe-2c3b-4e2d-9157-16b989860618' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '4' '9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '28' '0725eae6-7458-4ec2-8f66-880d88118148' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '165' '2c2dfd3f-ff08-437a-b075-7f8259dafadb' >}} Regional chapters in this assessment establish the climate variables for which, and the extent to which, non-stationarity has been confirmed around the United States. These chapters also provide extensive documentation of cases in which failure to adapt to current and future climate conditions can cause significant adverse impacts.</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>There is <em>high confidence</em> that most organizations’ planning is currently based on extensions from the record of local climate conditions.{{< tbib '169' '60233f20-d45f-4086-ada7-00dbd47712c3' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>While significant uncertainties can exist in estimating the extent to which current variability differs from historic observations in any particular location, there is robust evidence that such differences do occur in many locations <em>(see <a href='/chapter/18/'>Ch. 18: Northeast</a>; <a href='/chapter/19/'>Ch. 19: Southeast</a>; <a href='/chapter/20/'>Ch. 20: U.S. Caribbean</a>; <a href='/chapter/21/'>Ch. 21: Midwest</a>; <a href='/chapter/22/'>Ch. 22: N. Great Plains</a>; <a href='/chapter/23/'>Ch. 23: S. Great Plains</a>; <a href='/chapter/24/'>Ch. 24: Northwest</a>; <a href='/chapter/25/'>Ch. 25: Southwest</a>; <a href='/chapter/26/'>Ch. 26: Alaska</a>; and <a href='/chapter/27/'>Ch. 27: Hawaiʻi &amp; Pacific Islands</a>)</em>.{{< tbib '5' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '6' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '28' '0725eae6-7458-4ec2-8f66-880d88118148' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '166' '0615b4ff-d185-4e14-9d4d-5bea1ce6ca51' >}} However, the development and use of analytic tools, decision-making processes, and application mechanisms built on the assumption of non-stationarity lag significantly behind the growing realization that stationarity is no longer a sound basis for long-range planning.{{< tbib '167' '19a4d709-1ec6-4e02-ba94-0d4abb4b3820' >}} Nonetheless, new techniques are being applied.{{< tbib '10' '14abc4e6-e419-4686-880f-cd2f3e28e11c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '72' 'bc596c87-23de-4edf-9351-ff2fe74ba4c7' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '168' 'e7bfb64e-fd2c-462b-9fdd-9dcc978daaba' >}} For example, scenario planning can provide alternative actions that can be carried out if different impacts occur.{{< tbib '70' 'dcd195b2-6aab-4ff5-8554-db5607fd11c5' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '71' '622154ca-3347-4abe-9090-2f48025f383f' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/scientific-basis>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0615b4ff-d185-4e14-9d4d-5bea1ce6ca51>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/detection-attribution>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-smart-conservation-putting-adaptation-principles-into-practice>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00550.x>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/temperature-change>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/workshop-on-nonstationarity-hydrologic-frequency-analysis-water-management-boulder-co>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s11027-012-9423-1>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/embracing-uncertainty-case-study-examination-how-climate-change-is-shifting-water-utility-planning-prepared-water-utility-climate-alliance-wuca-american-water-works-association-awwa-water-research-foundation-wrf-association-metropolitan-water-agencies-amwa-by-stratus-consulting-inc-boulder-co-karen-raucher-robert-raucher-denver-water-denver-co-laurna-kaatz>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1151915>;
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<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/public-risks-challenges-climate-change-adaptation-proposed-framework-planning-age-uncertainty>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dcd195b2-6aab-4ff5-8554-db5607fd11c5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/confronting-climate-uncertainty-water-resources-planning-project-design-decision-tree-framework>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e7bfb64e-fd2c-462b-9fdd-9dcc978daaba>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/near-term-adaptation-needs-and-increased-resiliency/finding/key-message-28-2>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c>.