You are viewing /report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3 in Turtle
Alternatives : HTML JSON YAML text N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
Raw
@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-9-3";
   gcis:findingNumber "9.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "<p>Marine ecosystems and the coastal communities that depend on them are at risk of significant impacts from extreme events with combinations of very high temperatures, very low oxygen levels, or very acidified conditions. These unusual events are projected to become more common and more severe in the future (<em>very likely, very high confidence</em>), and they expose vulnerabilities that can motivate change, including technological innovations to detect, forecast, and mitigate adverse conditions.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>The goal when building the writing team for the Oceans and Marine Resources chapter was to assemble a group of scientists who have experience across the range of marine ecosystems (such as coral reefs and temperate fisheries) that are important to the United States and with expertise on the main drivers of ocean ecosystem change (temperature, deoxygenation, and acidification). We also sought geographic balance and wanted a team that included early-career and senior scientists. </p> <p>We provided two main opportunities for stakeholders to provide guidance for our chapter. This included a town hall meeting at the annual meeting of the Association for the Sciences of Limnology and Oceanography and a broadly advertised webinar hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Participants included academic and government scientists, as well as members of the fisheries and coastal resource management communities. We also set up a website to collect feedback from people who were not able to participate in the town hall or the webinar.</p> <p>An important consideration in our chapter was what topics we would cover and at what depth. We also worked closely with the authors of Chapter 8: Coastal Effects to decide which processes and ecosystems to include in which chapter. This led to their decision to focus on the climate-related physical changes coming from the ocean, especially sea level rise, while our chapter focused on marine resources, including intertidal ecosystems such as salt marshes. We also decided that an important goal of our chapter was to make the case that changing ocean conditions have a broad impact on the people of the United States. This led to an emphasis on ecosystem services, notably fisheries and tourism, which are easier to quantify in terms of economic impacts.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Marine heat waves have been described as regions of large-scale and persistent positive sea surface temperature anomalies that can vary in size, distribution, timing, and intensity akin to their terrestrial counterparts.{{< tbib '137' '963c8f97-8680-43df-8b28-59a376735f17' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '223' 'b8a1491a-3642-4d34-acec-b2b79bd57b8e' >}} Well-documented marine heat waves have recently occurred in the northwest Atlantic in 2012{{< tbib '1' '1dfd2171-2be3-40b2-a8e2-c0df84ec462a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '134' '273a1e86-544e-4a0a-a95b-c0855e9dcc32' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '151' '8d65a2de-6cac-407f-8906-79fd025c282c' >}} and the North Pacific in 2014–2016.{{< tbib '2' 'e2d6b1b6-6e11-4e40-a7bc-d777f2bbba0f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '6' '1d63deea-30f3-4fa1-ba08-3a969b23aa16' >}}</p> <p>Each of these events resulted in documented impacts to ecosystems and, in many cases, to the human communities to which they were connected. The recent major events in the U.S. northwest Atlantic and North Pacific led to economic challenges in the American lobster, Dungeness crab, and Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod fisheries.{{< tbib '1' '1dfd2171-2be3-40b2-a8e2-c0df84ec462a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '2' 'e2d6b1b6-6e11-4e40-a7bc-d777f2bbba0f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '78' 'e950a4ad-cf0c-4d55-9c68-1c358c2082ec' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '224' '083694ee-fb95-4c12-bd5c-8edecad138a1' >}}</p> <p>Abrupt warming can induce other ecosystem-level impacts. The North Pacific event featured an extensive bloom of the harmful algae <em>Pseudo-nitzschia</em>{{< tbib '4' '5300d778-0b4e-44bb-9449-c6a36ead3636' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '120' '5509daeb-bffb-4395-8582-1fef669a7a49' >}} that led to mass mortalities of sea lions and whales and the closure of the Dungeness crab fishery. The increase in intensity and occurrence of these toxic algal blooms has been linked to warm events in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.{{< tbib '4' '5300d778-0b4e-44bb-9449-c6a36ead3636' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '120' '5509daeb-bffb-4395-8582-1fef669a7a49' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '142' '59d0bcfb-805b-472d-b6fe-3b70bacc3d25' >}} Abrupt warming was inferred to trigger the expansion of the North Pacific oxygen minimum zone through reduced oxygen solubility and increased marine productivity.{{< tbib '225' '8e65123f-e597-4b51-8321-3f78fdf3b615' >}}</p> <p>Extreme events with corrosive (Ω &lt; 1) and/or low oxygen conditions can occur when deep waters, which are generally corrosive and have low oxygen levels, are brought into the coastal area during upwelling. They can also occur in response to the delivery of corrosive freshwater from the landscape, ice melting, and storms. These conditions now occur more frequently in coastal waters of the Pacific coast of the United States.{{< tbib '39' 'a080ee24-4ede-4f85-b205-79175e0dc77f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '126' '21aa7761-7792-4b6a-b172-7fe3ecd83d13' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '131' '14ea4d85-e2b5-48d8-b5c8-2d82801e8383' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '226' '83d5cc5a-349f-406c-a570-1d9a0c0dc75b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '7a925d3b-93c1-41ed-8b29-4f283b252c48' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '228' '9cf6afb1-6606-43f2-a1d2-bfb6a13f96b7' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '229' '29d05c83-65ba-47ed-b102-d5aeb5e5ef98' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '230' '32a7c6b7-16ce-49f8-8667-7343d9d40ea9' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '6b6ee187-783c-447f-943b-25bd1a0a2f9b' >}} Such events have led to the elevated mortality of coastal shellfish in hatcheries{{< tbib '128' 'bacbf706-64ce-4d4c-95e5-04bc1651fe96' >}} and die-offs of crabs and other animals living on the ocean bottom.{{< tbib '123' 'b7708c1a-0eb5-47db-a089-ff40be29c884' >}}</p> <p>Heat wave, high-acidity, and low-oxygen events are all produced by variability in the system occurring on timescales ranging from days to years. For example, recent marine heat waves have been linked to natural climate modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, which change over several years.{{< tbib '3' '257c4627-9b78-41ce-a824-ebfe008a4c88' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '137' '963c8f97-8680-43df-8b28-59a376735f17' >}} Persistent weather patterns lasting several months can further amplify conditions in the ocean, leading to extreme conditions.{{< tbib '2' 'e2d6b1b6-6e11-4e40-a7bc-d777f2bbba0f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '134' '273a1e86-544e-4a0a-a95b-c0855e9dcc32' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '151' '8d65a2de-6cac-407f-8906-79fd025c282c' >}} These climate modes and atmospheric conditions occur on top of the long-term trends caused by global climate change. Thus, as climate change progresses, events with temperatures above a certain level, oxygen below a certain level, or pH below a specified level will occur more frequently and will last longer.{{< tbib '56' '430ab97c-0236-4d1e-8291-f3a2c1bce65a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '141' '83ad6bee-06cc-4ae3-8691-8a93dbec9145' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '146' '5ded3542-0f25-487e-901c-0e61408943b4' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '232' '326a3884-ed4d-4194-b72d-f53a942119ea' >}}</p> <p>The intensity of corrosive events along the upwelling margin of the Pacific coast of the United States is increasing due to more intense winds over the past decade and ocean acidification.{{< tbib '15' '5d047224-4e72-46d1-87f5-042c9617472d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '53' '41f6e597-2a3d-4a42-886f-54866a25a2e0' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '123' 'b7708c1a-0eb5-47db-a089-ff40be29c884' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '125' 'fbb8d5f6-f170-4f50-aae4-0db84cf891c8' >}} In Alaska waters, these events are associated with freshwater inputs and storm events that may also have a link to climate change.{{< tbib '226' '83d5cc5a-349f-406c-a570-1d9a0c0dc75b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '227' '7a925d3b-93c1-41ed-8b29-4f283b252c48' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '228' '9cf6afb1-6606-43f2-a1d2-bfb6a13f96b7' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '229' '29d05c83-65ba-47ed-b102-d5aeb5e5ef98' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '230' '32a7c6b7-16ce-49f8-8667-7343d9d40ea9' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '233' '480b9fbf-ed78-4f41-be7e-c6023a317e6b' >}}</p> <p>There is ample evidence that extreme events motivate adaptive change in human systems. For example, Hurricane Katrina and Superstorm Sandy motivated communities near the affected areas to expand planning against future storms.{{< tbib '234' '8f522585-8c4d-4c72-ab01-76c071942cbc' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '235' '8cbef4be-90a3-4191-b203-4f967eb0e8a4' >}} The 2012 North Atlantic heat wave prompted the development of a forecast system to help Maine’s lobster fishery avoid future supply chain disruptions <em>(Ch. 18: Northeast)</em>.{{< tbib '150' '16854e43-c4a6-4fe4-bc8a-16d82fdcb38e' >}} The impact of corrosive waters on shellfish hatcheries in the Pacific Northwest motivated the development of new technology to monitor and manage water chemistry in shellfish hatcheries.{{< tbib '128' 'bacbf706-64ce-4d4c-95e5-04bc1651fe96' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>Because there is <em>very high confidence</em> and <em>very high likelihood</em> that oceans will get warmer, more acidified, and have lower oxygen content in response to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels,{{< tbib '15' '5d047224-4e72-46d1-87f5-042c9617472d' >}} it is <em>very likely</em> and there is <em>very high confidence</em> that extreme events will occur with increased intensity and frequency in the future.{{< tbib '6' '1d63deea-30f3-4fa1-ba08-3a969b23aa16' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '138' 'a1ed7e96-eb33-4566-9bbd-1684f800e9da' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '141' '83ad6bee-06cc-4ae3-8691-8a93dbec9145' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '232' '326a3884-ed4d-4194-b72d-f53a942119ea' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '237' '4a5d60f7-264a-470d-a116-e1c9476e7c9f' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>The description above assumes that natural modes of climate variability remain the same and can be simply added to baseline conditions set by the global climate. There is evidence that some natural climate modes may change in the future. As mentioned in the narrative, the climate oscillations linked to the 2014–2016 event in the North Pacific increase in amplitude in climate model projections.{{< tbib '3' '257c4627-9b78-41ce-a824-ebfe008a4c88' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '135' 'e8aca444-ea23-4765-be6f-4af6dd28af8c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '236' '00cf8d09-39c0-419f-b5c3-8c89ea40008f' >}} This suggests that extreme events will be more likely in the future, even without accounting for the shift to a warmer temperature baseline. Declines in Arctic sea ice are also hypothesized to impact future climate variability by causing the atmospheric jet stream to get stuck in place for days and weeks (e.g., Overland et al. 2016; Vavrus et al. 2017; but see Cohen 2016).{{< tbib '152' '09c51541-b400-4676-80c9-73440de4033f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '153' '94300b4b-a766-4038-854c-82949a11f525' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '154' '2bde765a-e5ff-428f-a2cd-56303c3e5523' >}} This has the potential to create persistent warm (where the jet stream is displaced to the north) and cold (where the jet stream moves south) weather conditions over North America.{{< tbib '152' '09c51541-b400-4676-80c9-73440de4033f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '153' '94300b4b-a766-4038-854c-82949a11f525' >}} These conditions are similar to the precursors to both the northwestern Atlantic and North Pacific heat waves.{{< tbib '2' 'e2d6b1b6-6e11-4e40-a7bc-d777f2bbba0f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '134' '273a1e86-544e-4a0a-a95b-c0855e9dcc32' >}}</p><p>For biogeochemistry, other factors may amplify the global changes at the regional level as well, especially in the coastal environment. These factors include local nutrient runoff, freshwater input, glacial runoff, spatial variability in retentive mechanisms, variability in upwelling strength, cloud cover, and stability of sedimentary deposits (for example, methane).{{< tbib '15' '5d047224-4e72-46d1-87f5-042c9617472d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '125' 'fbb8d5f6-f170-4f50-aae4-0db84cf891c8' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '143' 'a7e4205e-2a09-4b92-b90f-0de72be2fb30' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '151' '8d65a2de-6cac-407f-8906-79fd025c282c' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '231' '6b6ee187-783c-447f-943b-25bd1a0a2f9b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '233' '480b9fbf-ed78-4f41-be7e-c6023a317e6b' >}} Most of the factors will amplify the global trends toward lower oxygen and pH, leaving these estimates to be conservative. In addition, temperature, oxygen, and pH have synergistic effects that provide some uncertainties in the projected events.{{< tbib '56' '430ab97c-0236-4d1e-8291-f3a2c1bce65a' >}}</p>"^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature14235>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00cf8d09-39c0-419f-b5c3-8c89ea40008f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL069716>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/083694ee-fb95-4c12-bd5c-8edecad138a1>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate3121>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/09c51541-b400-4676-80c9-73440de4033f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.08.043>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/14ea4d85-e2b5-48d8-b5c8-2d82801e8383>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.3389/fmars.2017.00337>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/16854e43-c4a6-4fe4-bc8a-16d82fdcb38e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/bams-d-17-0093.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1d63deea-30f3-4fa1-ba08-3a969b23aa16>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5670/oceanog.2013.27>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1dfd2171-2be3-40b2-a8e2-c0df84ec462a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/s41598-017-02777-y>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/21aa7761-7792-4b6a-b172-7fe3ecd83d13>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate3082>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/257c4627-9b78-41ce-a824-ebfe008a4c88>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2013JC009393>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/273a1e86-544e-4a0a-a95b-c0855e9dcc32>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0130384>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/29d05c83-65ba-47ed-b102-d5aeb5e5ef98>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL069102>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2bde765a-e5ff-428f-a2cd-56303c3e5523>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/s41467-018-03163-6>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/326a3884-ed4d-4194-b72d-f53a942119ea>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5670/oceanog.2015.36>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/32a7c6b7-16ce-49f8-8667-7343d9d40ea9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/41f6e597-2a3d-4a42-886f-54866a25a2e0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1111/gcb.12754>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/430ab97c-0236-4d1e-8291-f3a2c1bce65a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2017JC012791>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/480b9fbf-ed78-4f41-be7e-c6023a317e6b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ncomms1713>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4a5d60f7-264a-470d-a116-e1c9476e7c9f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL070023>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5300d778-0b4e-44bb-9449-c6a36ead3636>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/oceans-and-marine-resources/finding/key-message-9-3>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1606798114>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5509daeb-bffb-4395-8582-1fef669a7a49>.