Figure : carbon-emissions-and-temperature-change

Observed and Projected Changes in Carbon Emissions and Temperature

Figure 2.2

Texas Tech University
Katharine Hayhoe

This figure appears in chapter 2 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

Observed and projected changes in global average temperature (right) depend on observed and projected emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion (left) and emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases from other human activities, including land use and land-use change. Under a pathway consistent with a higher scenario (RCP8.5), fossil fuel carbon emissions continue to increase throughout the century, and by 2080–2099, global average temperature is projected to increase by 4.2°–8.5°F (2.4°–4.7°C; shown by the burnt orange shaded area) relative to the 1986–2015 average. Under a lower scenario (RCP4.5), fossil fuel carbon emissions peak mid-century then decrease, and global average temperature is projected to increase by 1.7°–4.4°F (0.9°–2.4°C; range not shown on graph) relative to 1986–2015. Under an even lower scenario (RCP2.6), assuming carbon emissions from fossil fuels have already peaked, temperature increases could be limited to 0.4°–2.7°F (0.2°–1.5°C; shown by green shaded area) relative to 1986–2015. Thick lines within shaded areas represent the average of multiple climate models. The shaded ranges illustrate the 5% to 95% confidence intervals for the respective projections. In all RCP scenarios, carbon emissions from land use and land-use change amount to less than 1 GtC by 2020 and fall thereafter. Limiting the rise in global average temperature to less than 2.2°F (1.2°C) relative to 1986–2015 is approximately equivalent to 3.6°F (2°C) or less relative to preindustrial temperatures, consistent with the aim of the Paris Agreement (see Box 2.4). Source: adapted from Wuebbles et al. 2017.666daffe-2c3b-4e2d-9157-16b989860618

Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information

This figure was created on October 17, 2017.

This figure was submitted on November 30, 2018.

Provenance
This figure was derived from scenario rcp_4_5
This figure was derived from scenario rcp_8_5

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