Figure 2.3

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
William V. Sweet

This figure appears in chapter 2 of the Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II report.

How much global average sea level will rise over the rest of this century depends on the response of the climate system to warming, as well as on future scenarios of human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases. The colored lines show the six different global average sea level rise scenarios, relative to the year 2000, that were developed by the U.S. Federal Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforcec66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c to describe the range of future possible rise this century. The boxes on the right-hand side show the very likely ranges in sea level rise by 2100, relative to 2000, corresponding to the different RCP scenarios described in Figure 2.2. The lines above the boxes show possible increases based on the newest research of the potential Antarctic contribution to sea level rise (for example, DeConto and Pollard 2016ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 versus Kopp et al. 201438924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280). Regardless of the scenario followed, it is extremely likely that global average sea level rise will continue beyond 2100. Source: adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934
This figure was revised in June 2019. See Errata for details: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads

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This figure was created on October 17, 2017.

This figure was submitted on June 11, 2019.

Provenance

This figure was derived from scenario rcp_4_5
This figure was derived from scenario rcp_8_5

References :

• Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites (38924fa0)
• chapter climate-science-special-report chapter 12 : Sea Level Rise (3bae2310)
• Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise (ae82c8a3)
• Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States (c66bf5a9)

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