--- attributes: ~ caption: "How much global average sea level will rise over the rest of this century depends on the response of the climate system to warming, as well as on future scenarios of human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases. The colored lines show the six different global average sea level rise scenarios, relative to the year 2000, that were developed by the U.S. Federal Interagency Sea Level Rise Taskforce{{< tbib '76' 'c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c' >}} to describe the range of future possible rise this century. The boxes on the right-hand side show the very likely ranges in sea level rise by 2100, relative to 2000, corresponding to the different RCP scenarios described in Figure 2.2. The lines above the boxes show possible increases based on the newest research of the potential Antarctic contribution to sea level rise (for example, DeConto and Pollard 2016{{< tbib '80' 'ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18' >}} versus Kopp et al. 2014{{< tbib '77' '38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280' >}}). Regardless of the scenario followed, it is extremely likely that global average sea level rise will continue beyond 2100. Source: adapted from Sweet et al. 2017.{{< tbib '57' '3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934' >}}
This figure was revised in June 2019. See Errata for details: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads" chapter: doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH2 identifier: our-changing-climate number: 2 report_identifier: nca4 sort_key: 102 title: Our Changing Climate url: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/ chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate cited_by: [] contributors: - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/27993.yaml id: 27993 organization: country_code: US identifier: noaa-center-operational-oceanographic-products-services international: ~ name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services organization_type_identifier: federal url: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov organization_uri: /organization/noaa-center-operational-oceanographic-products-services person: first_name: William V. id: 11521 last_name: Sweet middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0002-0149-8336 url: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/profiles/aug09/sweet.html person_id: 11521 person_uri: /person/11521 role_type_identifier: point_of_contact uri: /contributor/27993 create_dt: 2017-10-17T19:38:22 files: - file: 63/06/e44c59eee6276d96dc70537d2cde/Change_Climate_global_mean_SLR_v5.png href: https://data.globalchange.gov/assets/63/06/e44c59eee6276d96dc70537d2cde/Change_Climate_global_mean_SLR_v5.png identifier: 0666f306-6d1c-4ec1-9c77-6a8e247ece30 landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: eabc62c340a2f5c65e752138d8282e827da93b1d size: 84140 thumbnail: 63/06/e44c59eee6276d96dc70537d2cde/.thumb-0666f306-6d1c-4ec1-9c77-6a8e247ece30.png thumbnail_href: https://data.globalchange.gov/assets/63/06/e44c59eee6276d96dc70537d2cde/.thumb-0666f306-6d1c-4ec1-9c77-6a8e247ece30.png uri: /file/0666f306-6d1c-4ec1-9c77-6a8e247ece30 url: /assets/63/06/e44c59eee6276d96dc70537d2cde/Change_Climate_global_mean_SLR_v5.png gcmd_keywords: - definition: the study of past climates href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/c7245882-84a1-4192-acfa-a758b5b9c151.yaml identifier: c7245882-84a1-4192-acfa-a758b5b9c151 label: PALEOCLIMATE parent_identifier: e9f67a66-e9fc-435c-b720-ae32a2c3d8f5 uri: /gcmd_keyword/c7245882-84a1-4192-acfa-a758b5b9c151 - definition: |- An OGCM is the ocean counterpart of an Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM); it is a three-dimensional representation of the ocean and sea ice. OGCMs are useful by themselves for studying ocean circulation, interior processes and variability, but they depend on being supplied with data about surface air temperature and other atmospheric properties. For a list of some Ocean Circulation models, see http://stommel.tamu.edu/~baum/ocean_models.html http://www.ocean-modeling.org/ href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/c61a56a3-c08f-4989-92f3-0f0787688424.yaml identifier: c61a56a3-c08f-4989-92f3-0f0787688424 label: OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (OGCM)/REGIONAL OCEAN MODELS parent_identifier: e1f20631-b5b9-438c-b5c2-b1fa0fce100a uri: /gcmd_keyword/c61a56a3-c08f-4989-92f3-0f0787688424 - definition: |- Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are the most complex models in use, consisting of an Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an Ocean general circulation models (OGCM). With the addition of other components (such as a sea ice model or a model for evapotranspiration over land), the AOGCM becomes the basis for a full climate model. Some recent models include the biosphere, carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry as well. AOGCMs can be used for the prediction and rate of change of future climate. They are also used to study the variability and physical processes of the coupled climate system. Global climate models typically have a resolution of a few hundred kilometres. Climate projections from the Hadley Centre make use of the HadCM2 AOGCM, developed in 1994, and its successor HadCM3 AOGCM, developed in 1998. Greenhouse-gas experiments with AOGCMs have usually been driven by specifying atmospheric concentrations of the gases, but if a carbon cycle model is included, the AOGCM can predict changes in carbon dioxide concentration, given the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Similarly, an AOGCM coupled to an atmospheric chemistry model is able to predict the changes in concentration of other atmospheric constituents in response to climate change and to the changing emissions of various gases. Further information is available on: some aspects of ocean simulation in HadCM3 (thermohaline circulation, ventilation, vertical mixing), decadal variability in the ocean of HadCM3. Recently a global coupled climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean resolution has been developed at the Hadley Centre, in order to better represent important oceanic processes. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058.yaml identifier: c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058 label: COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS parent_identifier: e1f20631-b5b9-438c-b5c2-b1fa0fce100a uri: /gcmd_keyword/c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058 - definition: An increase in the average height of the sea surface over a vertical datum. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/536a86bd-3dd1-4f4a-9b4a-222a12746db5.yaml identifier: 536a86bd-3dd1-4f4a-9b4a-222a12746db5 label: SEA LEVEL RISE parent_identifier: 5273c8c2-d30b-4666-b2d5-0388ce2741d0 uri: /gcmd_keyword/536a86bd-3dd1-4f4a-9b4a-222a12746db5 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/global-mean-sea-level.yaml identifier: global-mean-sea-level images: - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-17T19:38:22 description: ~ identifier: 0666f306-6d1c-4ec1-9c77-6a8e247ece30 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ position: ~ submission_dt: 2019-06-11T15:38:55 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Historical and Projected Global Average Sea Level Rise url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information kindred_figures: [] lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 parents: - activity_uri: ~ label: scenario rcp_4_5 note: '' publication_type_identifier: scenario relationship: prov:wasDerivedFrom url: /scenario/rcp_4_5 - activity_uri: ~ label: scenario rcp_8_5 note: '' publication_type_identifier: scenario relationship: prov:wasDerivedFrom url: /scenario/rcp_8_5 references: - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280.yaml uri: /reference/38924fa0-a0dd-44c9-a2a0-366ca610b280 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934.yaml uri: /reference/3bae2310-7572-47e2-99a4-9e4276764934 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18.yaml uri: /reference/ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c.yaml uri: /reference/c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c regions: [] report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2019-06-11T15:38:55 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Historical and Projected Global Average Sea Level Rise uri: /report/nca4/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/global-mean-sea-level url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. 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