--- attributes: ~ caption: "Observed and projected precipitation changes vary by region and season. (top) Historically, the Great Plains and the northeastern United States have experienced increased precipitation while the Southwest has experienced a decrease for the period 1986–2015 (relative to 1901–1960 for the contiguous United States and 1925–1960 for Alaska, Hawai‘i, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands). (middle and bottom) In the future, under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), the northern United States, including Alaska, is projected to receive more precipitation, especially in the winter and spring by the period 2070–2099 (relative to 1986–2015). Parts of the southwestern United States are projected to receive less precipitation in the winter and spring. Areas with red dots show where projected changes are large compared to natural variations; areas that are hatched show where changes are small and relatively insignificant. Source: adapted from Easterling et al. 2017).{{< tbib '94' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}}" chapter: doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH2 identifier: our-changing-climate number: 2 report_identifier: nca4 sort_key: 102 title: Our Changing Climate url: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/ chapter_identifier: our-changing-climate cited_by: [] contributors: - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/32952.yaml id: 32952 organization: country_code: US identifier: university-illinois-urbana-champaign-department-atmospheric-sciences international: ~ name: University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Department of Atmospheric Sciences organization_type_identifier: academic url: https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/ organization_uri: /organization/university-illinois-urbana-champaign-department-atmospheric-sciences person: first_name: Kenneth E. id: 1025 last_name: Kunkel middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0001-6667-7047 url: https://ncics.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/ person_id: 1025 person_uri: /person/1025 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/32952 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/33127.yaml id: 33127 organization: country_code: US identifier: north-carolina-state-university international: ~ name: North Carolina State University organization_type_identifier: academic url: http://www.ncsu.edu organization_uri: /organization/north-carolina-state-university person: first_name: Liqiang id: 1801 last_name: Sun middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0002-6611-5236 url: http://www.cicsnc.org/people/liqiang-sun/ person_id: 1801 person_uri: /person/1801 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/33127 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/3042.yaml id: 3042 organization: country_code: US identifier: national-environmental-modeling-analysis-center international: ~ name: National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center organization_type_identifier: academic url: http://nemac.unca.edu organization_uri: /organization/national-environmental-modeling-analysis-center person: first_name: J. Greg id: 1805 last_name: Dobson middle_name: ~ orcid: ~ url: http://nemac.unca.edu/faces/staff/j-greg-dobson person_id: 1805 person_uri: /person/1805 role_type_identifier: author uri: /contributor/3042 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/33124.yaml id: 33124 organization: country_code: US identifier: north-carolina-state-university international: ~ name: North Carolina State University organization_type_identifier: academic url: http://www.ncsu.edu organization_uri: /organization/north-carolina-state-university person: first_name: Kenneth E. id: 1025 last_name: Kunkel middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0001-6667-7047 url: https://ncics.org/people/kenneth-kunkel/ person_id: 1025 person_uri: /person/1025 role_type_identifier: point_of_contact uri: /contributor/33124 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/33495.yaml id: 33495 organization: country_code: US identifier: north-carolina-state-university international: ~ name: North Carolina State University organization_type_identifier: academic url: http://www.ncsu.edu organization_uri: /organization/north-carolina-state-university person: first_name: Liqiang id: 1801 last_name: Sun middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0002-6611-5236 url: http://www.cicsnc.org/people/liqiang-sun/ person_id: 1801 person_uri: /person/1801 role_type_identifier: point_of_contact uri: /contributor/33495 - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/contributor/32614.yaml id: 32614 organization: country_code: US identifier: noaa-national-climatic-data-center international: ~ name: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center organization_type_identifier: federal url: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov organization_uri: /organization/noaa-national-climatic-data-center person: first_name: Russell S. id: 2802 last_name: Vose middle_name: ~ orcid: 0000-0002-6669-3319 url: ~ person_id: 2802 person_uri: /person/2802 role_type_identifier: point_of_contact uri: /contributor/32614 create_dt: 2017-10-18T03:43:33 files: - file: d2/d2/69e4a99ff5b20a4c015cb05feb39/Change_Climate_proj_change_seasonal_precip_v7.png href: https://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d2/d2/69e4a99ff5b20a4c015cb05feb39/Change_Climate_proj_change_seasonal_precip_v7.png identifier: b6ed1dda-1428-4727-a25a-9861a0e3fb4f landing_page: ~ location: ~ mime_type: image/png sha1: 2855cfcda6f837a88216352a9df93db19987a160 size: 680954 thumbnail: d2/d2/69e4a99ff5b20a4c015cb05feb39/.thumb-b6ed1dda-1428-4727-a25a-9861a0e3fb4f.png thumbnail_href: https://data.globalchange.gov/assets/d2/d2/69e4a99ff5b20a4c015cb05feb39/.thumb-b6ed1dda-1428-4727-a25a-9861a0e3fb4f.png uri: /file/b6ed1dda-1428-4727-a25a-9861a0e3fb4f url: /assets/d2/d2/69e4a99ff5b20a4c015cb05feb39/Change_Climate_proj_change_seasonal_precip_v7.png gcmd_keywords: - definition: |- Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are the most complex models in use, consisting of an Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an Ocean general circulation models (OGCM). With the addition of other components (such as a sea ice model or a model for evapotranspiration over land), the AOGCM becomes the basis for a full climate model. Some recent models include the biosphere, carbon cycle and atmospheric chemistry as well. AOGCMs can be used for the prediction and rate of change of future climate. They are also used to study the variability and physical processes of the coupled climate system. Global climate models typically have a resolution of a few hundred kilometres. Climate projections from the Hadley Centre make use of the HadCM2 AOGCM, developed in 1994, and its successor HadCM3 AOGCM, developed in 1998. Greenhouse-gas experiments with AOGCMs have usually been driven by specifying atmospheric concentrations of the gases, but if a carbon cycle model is included, the AOGCM can predict changes in carbon dioxide concentration, given the emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Similarly, an AOGCM coupled to an atmospheric chemistry model is able to predict the changes in concentration of other atmospheric constituents in response to climate change and to the changing emissions of various gases. Further information is available on: some aspects of ocean simulation in HadCM3 (thermohaline circulation, ventilation, vertical mixing), decadal variability in the ocean of HadCM3. Recently a global coupled climate model with an eddy-permitting ocean resolution has been developed at the Hadley Centre, in order to better represent important oceanic processes. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058.yaml identifier: c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058 label: COUPLED CLIMATE MODELS parent_identifier: e1f20631-b5b9-438c-b5c2-b1fa0fce100a uri: /gcmd_keyword/c5b13fa4-0069-40ce-85cb-bfbab34c2058 - definition: All liquid or solid phase aqueous particles that originate in the atmosphere and fall to the earth's surface. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/1532e590-a62d-46e3-8d03-2351bc48166a.yaml identifier: 1532e590-a62d-46e3-8d03-2351bc48166a label: PRECIPITATION parent_identifier: c47f6052-634e-40ef-a5ac-13f69f6f4c2a uri: /gcmd_keyword/1532e590-a62d-46e3-8d03-2351bc48166a href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-seasonal-precip.yaml identifier: projected-change-in-seasonal-precip images: - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-25T16:29:40 description: ~ identifier: 97dc94a2-9e9e-4f01-b301-39ef923d55df lat_max: 71.38 lat_min: 16.92 lon_max: -65.09 lon_min: 173.00 position: 4 submission_dt: 2018-12-07T18:56:21 time_end: 2099-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1986-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Change in Fall Precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-25T16:23:40 description: ~ identifier: d2407102-d687-4547-80f9-2829d180af32 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ position: 0 submission_dt: 2018-11-16T19:39:21 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed Change in Annual Precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-25T16:24:51 description: ~ identifier: 7e538b7a-5296-46a8-83e8-ed2ce2627f21 lat_max: 71.38 lat_min: 16.92 lon_max: -65.09 lon_min: 173.00 position: 1 submission_dt: 2018-12-07T18:56:19 time_end: 2099-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1986-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Change in Winter Precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-25T16:26:58 description: ~ identifier: 5ca51b26-eef2-44d2-baf3-86f52c74375d lat_max: 71.38 lat_min: 16.92 lon_max: -65.09 lon_min: 173.00 position: 2 submission_dt: 2018-12-07T18:56:20 time_end: 2099-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1986-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Change in Spring Precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ create_dt: 2017-10-25T16:27:30 description: ~ identifier: 89fa5233-6d81-43d1-9cba-925030a40043 lat_max: 71.38 lat_min: 16.92 lon_max: -65.09 lon_min: 173.00 position: 3 submission_dt: 2018-12-07T18:56:21 time_end: 2099-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1986-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Change in Summer Precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information kindred_figures: [] lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 parents: - activity_uri: ~ label: scenario rcp_8_5 note: '' publication_type_identifier: scenario relationship: prov:wasDerivedFrom url: /scenario/rcp_8_5 references: - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c.yaml uri: /reference/e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c regions: - description: The complete territory of the United States of America href: https://data.globalchange.gov/region/united-states.yaml identifier: united-states label: Entire US uri: /region/united-states report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-07T18:56:19 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed and Projected Change in Seasonal Precipitation uri: /report/nca4/chapter/our-changing-climate/figure/projected-change-in-seasonal-precip url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information