uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Publisher,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/2a131189-94cc-4c86-bb51-2fc0bf6a4504,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2a131189-94cc-4c86-bb51-2fc0bf6a4504,2a131189-94cc-4c86-bb51-2fc0bf6a4504,"Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.","Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.",10.1038/nclimate3039,09//print,1758-678X,9,"Nature Climate Change",885-890,"Nature Publishing Group","Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions",Article,6,2016,21434,2a131189-94cc-4c86-bb51-2fc0bf6a4504,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3039
/reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,,"Eldredge, Niles, and Stephen Jay Gould",,,,,,82-115,"Freeman & Cooper","Punctuated equilibria: An alternative to phyletic gradualism",,,1972,21445,82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,"Book Section",/book/d1870c8d-bea7-4eac-bf18-45badcbf0555
/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,,"Simon, Herbert A.",,,,,,3-14,"Perseus Books","Can there be a science of complex systems?",,,2000,21403,87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,"Conference Paper",/generic/353cabe8-5993-46f4-9c7a-b086f9d098e3
/reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,,"Darley, Vince",,"6-8 July 1994",,,,411-406,"MIT Press","Emergent phenomena and complexity",,,1994,21453,a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,"Conference Paper",/generic/5e4deda1-51f0-4b47-91f3-45a78c581bfe
/reference/ceb49ae3-99c4-4009-a382-c3f26891e687,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ceb49ae3-99c4-4009-a382-c3f26891e687,ceb49ae3-99c4-4009-a382-c3f26891e687,,"Holling, C. S.",10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245,,,1,"Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics",1-23,,"Resilience and stability of ecological systems",,4,1973,25292,ceb49ae3-99c4-4009-a382-c3f26891e687,"Journal Article",/article/10.1146/annurev.es.04.110173.000245
/reference/ff6f1e9a-1875-438b-b628-c107c5de2396,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ff6f1e9a-1875-438b-b628-c107c5de2396,ff6f1e9a-1875-438b-b628-c107c5de2396,"Finite systems of deterministic ordinary nonlinear differential equations may be designed to represent forced dissipative hydrodynamic flow. Solutions of these equations can be identified with trajectories in phase space. For those systems with bounded solutions, it is found that nonperiodic solutions are ordinarily unstable with respect to small modifications, so that slightly differing initial states can evolve into considerably different states. Systems with bounded solutions are shown to possess bounded numerical solutions. A simple system representing cellular convection is solved numerically. All of the solutions are found to be unstable, and almost all of them are nonperiodic. The feasibility of very-long-range weather prediction is examined in the light of these results.","Lorenz, Edward N.",10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020<0130:dnf>2.0.co;2,,,2,"Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences",130-141,,"Deterministic nonperiodic flow",,20,1963,21424,ff6f1e9a-1875-438b-b628-c107c5de2396,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/1520-0469(1963)020%3C0130:dnf%3E2.0.co;2