--- - attrs: Abstract: 'The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socio-economic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.' Author: 'Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Nigel W. Arnell; Kristie L. Ebi; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Frank Raes; Chris Rapley; Mark Stafford Smith; Wolfgang Cramer; Katja Frieler; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Jacob Schewe; van Vuuren, Detlef; Lila Warszawski' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/010301 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 1 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 010301 Title: 'Assessing inter-sectoral climate change risks: The role of ISIMIP' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21406 _uuid: 0bf999f3-8291-493a-bf19-525a26af5125 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/010301 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0bf999f3-8291-493a-bf19-525a26af5125.yaml identifier: 0bf999f3-8291-493a-bf19-525a26af5125 uri: /reference/0bf999f3-8291-493a-bf19-525a26af5125 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Oppenheimer, M.; Campos, M.; Warren, R.; Birkmann, J.; Luber, G.; O’Neill, B.; Takahashi, K.' Book Title: 'Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change' Editor: 'Field, C. B.; Barros, V. R.; Dokken, D. J.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M. D.; Bilir, T. E.; Chatterjee, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Estrada, Y. O.; Genova, R. C.; Girma, B.; Kissel, E. S.; Levy, A. N.; MacCracken, S.; Mastrandrea, P. R.; White, L. L.' Pages: 1039-1099 Place Published: 'Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Short Title: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities Title: Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities Year: 2014 _record_number: 17696 _uuid: 0ea6d723-5df9-4b45-8d5f-be269119ccf8 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta/chapter/wg2-ar5-chap19-final href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0ea6d723-5df9-4b45-8d5f-be269119ccf8.yaml identifier: 0ea6d723-5df9-4b45-8d5f-be269119ccf8 uri: /reference/0ea6d723-5df9-4b45-8d5f-be269119ccf8 - attrs: Abstract: 'The elicitation of scientific and technical judgments from experts, in the form of subjective probability distributions, can be a valuable addition to other forms of evidence in support of public policy decision making. This paper explores when it is sensible to perform such elicitation and how that can best be done. A number of key issues are discussed, including topics on which there are, and are not, experts who have knowledge that provides a basis for making informed predictive judgments; the inadequacy of only using qualitative uncertainty language; the role of cognitive heuristics and of overconfidence; the choice of experts; the development, refinement, and iterative testing of elicitation protocols that are designed to help experts to consider systematically all relevant knowledge when they make their judgments; the treatment of uncertainty about model functional form; diversity of expert opinion; and when it does or does not make sense to combine judgments from different experts. Although it may be tempting to view expert elicitation as a low-cost, low-effort alternative to conducting serious research and analysis, it is neither. Rather, expert elicitation should build on and use the best available research and analysis and be undertaken only when, given those, the state of knowledge will remain insufficient to support timely informed assessment and decision making.' Author: 'Morgan, M. Granger' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1319946111 Date: 'May 20, 2014' Issue: 20 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 7176-7184 Title: Use (and abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision making for public policy Volume: 111 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21386 _uuid: 42c619a3-768b-4a22-9dd6-73b52af9426c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1319946111 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/42c619a3-768b-4a22-9dd6-73b52af9426c.yaml identifier: 42c619a3-768b-4a22-9dd6-73b52af9426c uri: /reference/42c619a3-768b-4a22-9dd6-73b52af9426c - attrs: Author: 'Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2959 Date: 04/27/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 445-451 Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' Title: Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change Type of Article: Perspective Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25287 _uuid: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2959 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601.yaml identifier: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 uri: /reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0WH2N54 Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 133-160 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21562 _uuid: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771.yaml identifier: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 uri: /reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 - attrs: Abstract: 'For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. ADVANCESPast scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year−1. Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-of-century impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year−1, comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year−1 projected from future warming.Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate—why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed “adaptation gaps” reflect optimal investments or constrained suboptimal adaptation that should be addressed through policy. OUTLOOKRecent findings provide insight into the historical evolution of the global economy; they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we understand the consequences of future climate changes. Although climate is clearly not the only factor that affects social and economic outcomes, new quantitative measurements reveal that it is a major factor, often with first-order consequences. Research over the coming decade will seek to understand the numerous mechanisms that drive these effects, with the hope that policy may interfere with the most damaging pathways of influence. Both current and future generations will benefit from near-term investigations. “Cracking the code” on when, where, and why adaptation is or is not successful will generate major social benefits today and in the future. In addition, calculations used to design global climate change olicies require as input “damage functions” that describe how social and economic losses accrue under different climatic conditions, essential elements that now can (and should) be calibrated to real-world relationships. Designing effective, efficient, and fair policies to manage anthropogenic climate change requires that we possess a quantitative grasp of how different investments today may affect economic and social possibilities in the future.Two globes depict two possible futures for how the climate might change and how those changes are likely to affect humanity, based on recent empirical findings.Base colors are temperature change under “Business as usual” (left, RCP 8.5) and “stringent emissions mitigation” (right, RCP 2.6). Overlaid are composite satellite images of nighttime lights with rescaled intensity reflecting changes in economic productivity in each climate scenario.For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.%U ; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/353/6304/aad9837.full.pdf' Author: 'Carleton, Tamma A.; Hsiang, Solomon M.' DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837 Issue: 6304 Journal: Science Title: Social and economic impacts of climate Volume: 353 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21459 _uuid: a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aad9837 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63.yaml identifier: a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63 uri: /reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.' Author: 'O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Carter, Timothy R.; Mathur, Ritu; van Vuuren, Detlef P.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 Date: February 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 387-400 Title: 'A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch10 _record_number: 16544 _uuid: ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b.yaml identifier: ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b uri: /reference/ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Houser, Trevor; Kopp, Robert; Hsiang, Solomon; Michael Delgado; Amir Jina; Kate Larsen; Michael Mastrandrea; Shashank Mohan; Robert Muir-Wood; DJ Rasmussen; James Rising; Paul Wilson' Institution: Rhodium Group Pages: 201 Place Published: 'New York, NY' Series Title: Working Paper Series Title: 'American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks in the United States' URL: https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/American_Climate_Prospectus.pdf Year: 2014 _record_number: 21430 _uuid: bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/american-climate-prospectus-economic-risks-united-states href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1.yaml identifier: bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1 uri: /reference/bbca6337-718b-4289-b6e7-0a2f6c1cb8f1 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Janetos, Anthony C.; Christopher Justice; Molly Jahn; Michael Obersteiner; Jospeh Glauber; Willam Mulhern' Institution: Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future Notes: 'ISBN: 978-1-936727-14-8' Pages: 22 Place Published: 'Boston, MA' Publisher: Boston University Series Title: Pardee Center Research Report Title: 'The Risks of Multiple Breadbasket Failures in the 21st Century: A Science Research Agenda' URL: http://www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2017/03/Multiple-Breadbasket-Failures-Pardee-Report.pdf Year: 2017 _record_number: 21428 _uuid: c7f36e83-1f30-491a-b7b8-79cfc181d011 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/risks-multiple-breadbasket-failures-21st-century-science-research-agenda href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c7f36e83-1f30-491a-b7b8-79cfc181d011.yaml identifier: c7f36e83-1f30-491a-b7b8-79cfc181d011 uri: /reference/c7f36e83-1f30-491a-b7b8-79cfc181d011 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Adger, W. N.; Pulhin, J. M.; Barnett, J.; Dabelko, G. D.; Hovelsrud, G. K.; Levy, M.; Ú. Oswald, Spring; Vogel, C. H.' Book Title: 'Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change' Editor: 'Field, C. B.; Barros, V. R.; Dokken, D. J.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M. D.; Bilir, T. E.; Chatterjee, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Estrada, Y. O.; Genova, R. C.; Girma, B.; Kissel, E. S.; Levy, A. N.; MacCracken, S.; Mastrandrea, P. R.; White, L. L.' Pages: 755-791 Place Published: 'Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Short Title: Human security Title: Human security Year: 2014 _record_number: 17670 _uuid: d5216e42-45ce-457b-bda8-b2e445d23c0d reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta/chapter/wg2-ar5-chap12-final href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d5216e42-45ce-457b-bda8-b2e445d23c0d.yaml identifier: d5216e42-45ce-457b-bda8-b2e445d23c0d uri: /reference/d5216e42-45ce-457b-bda8-b2e445d23c0d - attrs: Abstract: 'Through integrative assessment, experts evaluate the state of knowledge on complex problems relevant to societies. In this review, we take stock of recent advances and challenges, rooting our analysis in climate change assessment. In particular, we consider four priorities in assessment: (a) integrating diverse evidence including quantitative and qualitative results and understanding, (b) applying rigorous expert judgment to evidence and its uncertainties, (c) exploring widely ranging futures and their connections to ongoing choices and actions, and (d) incorporating interactions among experts and decision makers in assessment processes. Across these assessment priorities, we survey past experiences, current practices, and possibilities for future experimentation, innovation, and learning. In our current era of climate and broader global change, integrative assessment can bolster decisions about contested and uncertain futures. We consider both opportunities and pitfalls in synthesizing and encompassing evidence and perspectives. Our aim is to advance transparent assessment for a sustainable future. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources Volume 42 is October 17, 2017. Please see ; http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates; for revised estimates.' Author: 'Mach, Katharine J.; Christopher B. Field' DOI: 10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007 Issue: 1 Journal: Annual Review of Environment and Resources Pages: 569-597 Title: Toward the next generation of assessment Volume: 42 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21422 _uuid: df27d677-4c3e-49ee-87ef-4d46c1e47087 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-environ-102016-061007 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/df27d677-4c3e-49ee-87ef-4d46c1e47087.yaml identifier: df27d677-4c3e-49ee-87ef-4d46c1e47087 uri: /reference/df27d677-4c3e-49ee-87ef-4d46c1e47087