uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04,6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04,"The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.","Faunt, Claudia C.; Sneed, Michelle; Traum, Jon; Brandt, Justin T.",10.1007/s10040-015-1339-x,"May 01",1435-0157,3,"Hydrogeology Journal",675-684,"Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA","journal article",24,2016,25269,6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10040-015-1339-x
/reference/66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6,66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6,,"Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Bilello, D.; Schmalzer, D.; Scott, M.",,,,,,,"Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use. Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment",,,2014,21391,66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6,Book,/report/ornl-climchenergy-2012
/reference/6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b,6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b,,"McKenzie, D.
Peterson, D.L.
Littell, J.J.",10.1016/S1474-8177(08)00015-6,,,,,319-337,"Ch. 15: Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America",,8,2008,1953,6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b,"Book Section",/book/90797532-c388-4ee0-8635-ea25b3261754
/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,,"Kopp, R.E.; D.R. Easterling; T. Hall; K. Hayhoe; R. Horton; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0GB227J,,,,,411-429,"Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements",,,2017,21573,6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises
/reference/6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a,6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a,,"Perrow, Charles",,,,,,,"Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies",,,2011,21412,6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a,Book,/book/normal-accidents-living-high-risk-technologies
/reference/6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba,6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba,,"Shapiro, Shari",10.1080/09613218.2016.1156957,2016/08/17,0961-3218,5-6,"Building Research & Information",490-506,"The realpolitik of building codes: Overcoming practical limitations to climate resilience",,44,2016,25284,6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/09613218.2016.1156957
/reference/6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b,6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b,,"Zanella, A.; N. Bui; A. Castellani; L. Vangelista; M. Zorzi",10.1109/JIOT.2014.2306328,,2327-4662,1,"IEEE Internet of Things Journal",22-32,"Internet of things for smart cities",,1,2014,21389,6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1109/JIOT.2014.2306328
/reference/6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf,6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf,,"Klein, R. J. T.; Midgley, G. F.; Preston, B. L.; Alam, M.; Berkhout, F. G. H.; Dow, K.; Shaw, M. R.",,,,,,899-943,"Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits",,,2014,17687,6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf,"Book Section",/report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta/chapter/wg2-ar5-chap16-final
/reference/6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3,6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3,"Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC). DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.","Larson, Kelli; White, Dave; Gober, Patricia; Wutich, Amber",,,2071-1050,11,Sustainability,14761-14784,"Decision-making under uncertainty for water sustainability and urban climate change adaptation",,7,2015,22773,6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3,"Journal Article",/article/decision-making-under-uncertainty-water-sustainability-urban-climate-change-adaptation
/reference/747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba,747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba,,"Ernst, Kathleen M.; Preston, Benjamin L.",10.1016/j.envsci.2017.01.001,4//,1462-9011,,"Environmental Science & Policy",38-45,"Adaptation opportunities and constraints in coupled systems: Evidence from the U.S. energy-water nexus",,70,2017,21444,747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.01.001
/reference/75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70,75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70,,"Kenward, Alyson; Raja, Urooj",,,,,,23,"Blackout: Extreme Weather, Climate Change and Power Outages",,,2014,25300,75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70,Report,/report/blackout-extreme-weather-climate-change-power-outages
/reference/78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5,78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5,,"U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force,",,,,,,228,"August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations. Final Report",,,2004,25309,78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5,Report,/report/august-14-2003-blackout-united-states-canada-causes-recommendations-final-report
/reference/7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492,7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492,,"Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.",10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.087,,0306-2619,,"Applied Energy",,"Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict heat-related electric grid stress days",,,2017,21385,7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.087
/reference/789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926,789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926,,"Blomdahl, Karl Sundequist; Pierre Flener; Justin Pearson",,,,,,643-657,"Contingency plans for air traffic management",,,2010,21462,789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926,"Book Section",/book/bcba8a25-d65b-412d-a3e3-93fb89014b34
/reference/78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,,,,"December 2012",,,,,"Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870",,,2012,3307,78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1,"Edited Book",/report/usfs-pnw-gtr-870
/reference/7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0,7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0,,"NRC,",,,,,,,"Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate",,,2009,2294,7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0,Book,/report/nrc-inform-decisions-2009
/reference/7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649,7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649,,"Janetos, A.C.
Clarke, L.
Collins, B.
Ebi, K.
Edmonds, J.
Foster, I.
Jacoby, J.
Judd, K.
Leung, R.
Newell, R.",,,,,,80,"Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research. Report PNNL-18417",,,2009,1498,7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649,Report,/report/pnnl-18417
/reference/7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c,7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c,,"EPA,",,,,,,,"Hurricane Harvey 2017 [web site]",,,2017,25929,7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c,"Web Page",/webpage/ad9e30bd-1fe6-4395-8db8-9a849e8ed04b
/reference/7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be,7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be,"A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody‐plant communities are key components in multiple‐trophic‐level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine‐grained beaver pond sediments and coarse‐grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate‐driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20–30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver‐pond and willow‐mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.","Wolf, Evan C.; David J. Cooper; N. Thompson Hobbs",10.1890/06-2042.1,,,6,"Ecological Applications",1572-1587,"Hydrologic regime and herbivory stabilize an alternative state in Yellowstone National Park",,17,2007,25279,7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be,"Journal Article",/article/10.1890/06-2042.1
/reference/7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26,7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26,,,,,,,,,"Harvey throws a wrench into US energy engine",,,2017,25303,7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26,"Newspaper Article",/generic/c9323502-a934-4234-8b14-29456b9f1796
/reference/828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575,828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575,,"Maloney, Megan C.; Preston, Benjamin L.",10.1016/j.crm.2014.02.004,2014/01/01/,2212-0963,,"Climate Risk Management",26-41,"A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications",,2,2014,21331,828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.crm.2014.02.004
/reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,,"Eldredge, Niles, and Stephen Jay Gould",,,,,,82-115,"Punctuated equilibria: An alternative to phyletic gradualism",,,1972,21445,82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168,"Book Section",/book/d1870c8d-bea7-4eac-bf18-45badcbf0555
/reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601,843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601,,"Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.",10.1038/nclimate2959,04/27/online,,,"Nature Climate Change",445-451,"Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change",Perspective,6,2016,25287,843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2959
/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,,"Simon, Herbert A.",,,,,,3-14,"Can there be a science of complex systems?",,,2000,21403,87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152,"Conference Paper",/generic/353cabe8-5993-46f4-9c7a-b086f9d098e3
/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151,89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151,"California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.","Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle",10.1073/pnas.1422385112,"March 31, 2015",,13,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",3931-3936,"Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California",,112,2015,19545,89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112
/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572,8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572,,"van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan",10.1038/nclimate2903,04//print,1758-678X,4,"Nature Climate Change",375-380,"Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources",Letter,6,2016,21334,8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2903
/reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff,8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff,,"Xiao, Mu; Koppa, Akash; Mekonnen, Zelalem; Pagán, Brianna R.; Zhan, Shengan; Cao, Qian; Aierken, Abureli; Lee, Hyongki; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.",10.1002/2017GL073333,,1944-8007,10,"Geophysical Research Letters",4872-4879,"How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought?",,44,2017,21388,8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2017GL073333
/reference/8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a,8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a,"California's Central Valley produces one quarter of the nation's food, much of it irrigated with groundwater. This chapter presents results of a continuing study of the application of Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to monitoring of land subsidence as a function of groundwater dynamics. It defines the full extent as well as the evolution from 2007 to 2011 of a large subsidence bowl in the southern San Joaquin Valley and presents the results in several different formats geared to different audiences. Further development, including subsurface geologic information, may allow more quantitative estimates of groundwater change based on InSAR subsidence histories. The aquifer system of the southern Central Valley has both unconfined and confined parts caused by alternating layers of coarse and fine‐grained sediments. Snow and surface water are of primary importance in the hydrologic cycle of California, and new techniques are today being applied to their mapping and monitoring.","Farr, Tom G.; Zhen Liu ",10.1002/9781118872086.ch24,,,,,397-406,"Monitoring subsidence associated with groundwater dynamics in the Central Valley of California using interferometric radar",,,2014,25295,8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a,"Book Section",/book/7fe5537e-ce34-4108-a9f0-1598b484f3ec
/reference/8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b,8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b,"With gray wolves restored to Yellowstone National Park, this ecosystem once again supports the full native array of large ungulates and their attendant large carnivores. We consider the possible ecological implications of wolf restoration in the context of another national park, Isle Royale, where wolves restored themselves a half-century ago. At Isle Royale, where resident mammals are relatively few, wolves completely eliminated coyotes and went on to influence moose population dynamics, which had implications for forest growth and composition. At Yellowstone, we predict that wolf restoration will have similar effects to a degree, reducing elk and coyote density. As at Isle Royale, Yellowstone plant communities will be affected, as will mesocarnivores, but to what degree is as yet undetermined. At Yellowstone, ecosystem response to the arrival of the wolf will take decades to unfold, and we argue that comprehensive ecological research and monitoring should be an essential long-term component of the management of Yellowstone National Park.","Smith, Douglas W.; Peterson, Rolf O.; Houston, Douglas B.",10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0330:YAW]2.0.CO;2,,0006-3568,4,BioScience,330-340,"Yellowstone after Wolves",,53,2003,25282,8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053%5B0330:YAW%5D2.0.CO;2
/reference/8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd,8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd,,"Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George",10.1038/nclimate3310,06/12/online,,,"Nature Climate Change",496-500,"Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems",,7,2017,25275,8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate3310
/reference/923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63,923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63,,"Christophers, Brett",10.1080/24694452.2017.1293502,2017/09/03,2469-4452,5,"Annals of the American Association of Geographers",1108-1127,"Climate change and financial instability: Risk disclosure and the problematics of neoliberal governance",,107,2017,21456,923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63,"Journal Article",/article/10.1080/24694452.2017.1293502
/reference/9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa,9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa,,"Panteli, Mathaios; Kirschen, Daniel S.",10.1016/j.epsr.2015.01.008,2015/05/01/,0378-7796,,"Electric Power Systems Research",140-151,"Situation awareness in power systems: Theory, challenges and applications",,122,2015,21414,9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.epsr.2015.01.008
/reference/930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6,930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6,,"Carreras, B. A.; D. E. Newman; Ian Dobson",10.1063/1.4868393,,,2,"Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science",023104,"Does size matter?",,24,2014,25268,930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1063/1.4868393
/reference/93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418,93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418,"Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.","Smith, Alistair M. S.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Paveglio, Travis B.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Moritz, Max A.; Kliskey, Andrew D.; Alessa, Lilian; Hudak, Andrew T.; Hoffman, Chad M.; Lutz, James A.; Queen, Lloyd P.; Goetz, Scott J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Boschetti, Luigi; Flannigan, Mike; Yedinak, Kara M.; Watts, Adam C.; Strand, Eva K.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Anderson, John W.; Stocks, Brian J.; Abatzoglou, John T.",10.1093/biosci/biv182,,0006-3568,2,BioScience,130-146,"The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities",,66,2016,21402,93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418,"Journal Article",/article/10.1093/biosci/biv182
/reference/9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b,9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b,,"de Bremond, Ariane; Preston, Benjamin L.; Rice, Jennie",10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.004,2014/10/01/,1462-9011,,"Environmental Science & Policy",45-55,"Improving the usability of integrated assessment for adaptation practice: Insights from the U.S. southeast energy sector",,42,2014,21451,9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.004
/reference/97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24,97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24,,"Ayyub, Bilal M.",10.1061/AJRUA6.0000826,,,3,"ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering",04015008,"Practical resilience metrics for planning, design, and decision making",,1,2015,25265,97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24,"Journal Article",/article/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000826
/reference/9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115,9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115,"OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the health effects of the 2003 Northeastern blackout, the largest one in history, on mortality and hospital admissions due to respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases in New York City (NYC), and compared the disease patterns and sociodemographic profiles of cases during the blackout with those on control days. METHOD: We investigated the effects of the blackout on health using incidence rate ratios to compare the disease on blackout days (August 14 and 15, 2003) with those on normal and comparably hot days (controls). Normal days were defined as summer days (June-August) between the 25th and 75th percentiles of maximum temperature during 1991-2004. Comparably hot days were days with maximum temperatures in the same range as that of the blackout days. We evaluated the interactive effects of demographics and the blackout using a case-only design. RESULTS: We found that mortality and respiratory hospital admissions in NYC increased significantly (two- to eightfold) during the blackout, but cardiovascular and renal hospitalizations did not. The most striking increases occurred among elderly, female, and chronic bronchitis admissions. We identified stronger effects during the blackout than on comparably hot days. In contrast to the pattern observed for comparably hot days, higher socioeconomic status groups were more likely to be hospitalized during the blackout. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that power outages may have important health impacts, even stronger than the effects of heat alone. The findings provide some direction for future emergency planning and public health preparedness.","Lin, S.; Fletcher, B. A.; Luo, M.; Chinery, R.; Hwang, S-. A.",10.1177/003335491112600312,May-Jun,1468-2877,3,"Public Health Reports",384-93,"Health impact in New York City during the Northeastern blackout of 2003",,126,2011,16321,9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115,"Journal Article",/article/pmc-3072860
/reference/9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772,9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772,"Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that has not been explicitly defined, particularly with regard to wildfire. Vulnerability more broadly is defined by three primary components: exposure to the stressor, sensitivity to a range of stressor variability, and resilience following exposure. In this synthesis, we define vulnerability in the context of wildfire. We first identify the components of a guiding framework for a vulnerability assessment with respect to wildfire. We then address retrospective assessments of wildfire vulnerability and the data that have been developed and utilized to complete these assessments. Finally, we review the modeling efforts that allow for predictive and probabilistic assessment of future vulnerability. Throughout the synthesis, we highlight gaps in the research, data availability, and models used to complete vulnerability assessments.","Vaillant, Nicole M.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Smith, Alistair M. S.",10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1,"September 01",2198-6436,3,"Current Forestry Reports",201-213,"Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA","journal article",2,2016,21396,9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1
/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,,"Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles",10.7930/J0WH2N54,,,,,133-160,"Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections",,,2017,21562,9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections
/reference/9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7,9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7,,"Zhou, Q.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.",10.5194/hess-22-305-2018,,1607-7938,1,"Hydrology and Earth System Sciences",305-316,"Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: Benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations",,22,2018,25277,9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/hess-22-305-2018
/reference/9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd,9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd,,"Gilbert, Stanley W.; Butry, David T.; Helgeson, Jennifer F.; Chapman, Robert E. ",10.6028/NIST.SP.1197,,,,,52,"Community Resilience Economic Decision Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems",,,2015,25296,9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd,Report,/report/community-resilience-economic-decision-guide-buildings-infrastructure-systems
/reference/9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6,9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6,"High-reliability management of critical infrastructures-the safe and continued provision of electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, transportation, and water-is a social imperative. Loss of service in interconnected critical infrastructure systems (ICISs) after hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis and their delayed large-scale recovery have turned these events into catastrophes. Reliability and Risk reveals a neglected management dimension and provides a new framework for understanding interconnected infrastructures, their potential for cascading failure, and how to improve their reliability and reduce risk of system failure. The book answers two questions: How are modern interconnected infrastructures managed and regulated for reliability? How can policy makers, analysts, managers, and citizenry better promote reliability in interconnected systems whose failures can scarcely be imagined? The current consensus is that the answers lie in better design, technology, and regulation, but the book argues that these have inevitable shortfalls and that it is dangerous to stop there. The framework developed in Reliability and Risk draws from first-of-its-kind research at the infrastructure crossroads of California, the California Delta, in the San Francisco Bay region. The book demonstrates that infrastructure reliability in an interconnected world must be managed by system professionals in real time.","Schulman, Paul; Roe, Emery",10.11126/stanford/9780804793933.001.0001,,,,,,"Reliability and Risk: The Challenge of Managing Interconnected Infrastructures",,,2016,25304,9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6,Book,/book/reliability-risk-challenge-managing-interconnected-infrastructures
/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,,"Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande",10.7930/J0CJ8BNN,,,,,231-256,"Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires",,,2017,21566,a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology
/reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,,"Darley, Vince",,"6-8 July 1994",,,,411-406,"Emergent phenomena and complexity",,,1994,21453,a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0,"Conference Paper",/generic/5e4deda1-51f0-4b47-91f3-45a78c581bfe
/reference/a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df,a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df,,"Gain, Animesh K.; Josselin J. Rouillard; David Benson ","10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A003 ",,,4A,"Journal of Water Resource and Protection",11-20,"Can integrated water resources management increase adaptive capacity to climate change adaptation? A critical review",,5,2013,21440,a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df,"Journal Article",/article/10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A003%20
/reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63,a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63,"For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. ADVANCESPast scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year−1. Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-of-century impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year−1, comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year−1 projected from future warming.Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate—why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed “adaptation gaps” reflect optimal investments or constrained suboptimal adaptation that should be addressed through policy. OUTLOOKRecent findings provide insight into the historical evolution of the global economy; they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we understand the consequences of future climate changes. Although climate is clearly not the only factor that affects social and economic outcomes, new quantitative measurements reveal that it is a major factor, often with first-order consequences. Research over the coming decade will seek to understand the numerous mechanisms that drive these effects, with the hope that policy may interfere with the most damaging pathways of influence. Both current and future generations will benefit from near-term investigations. “Cracking the code” on when, where, and why adaptation is or is not successful will generate major social benefits today and in the future. In addition, calculations used to design global climate change olicies require as input “damage functions” that describe how social and economic losses accrue under different climatic conditions, essential elements that now can (and should) be calibrated to real-world relationships. Designing effective, efficient, and fair policies to manage anthropogenic climate change requires that we possess a quantitative grasp of how different investments today may affect economic and social possibilities in the future.Two globes depict two possible futures for how the climate might change and how those changes are likely to affect humanity, based on recent empirical findings.Base colors are temperature change under “Business as usual” (left, RCP 8.5) and “stringent emissions mitigation” (right, RCP 2.6). Overlaid are composite satellite images of nighttime lights with rescaled intensity reflecting changes in economic productivity in each climate scenario.For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.%U ; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/353/6304/aad9837.full.pdf","Carleton, Tamma A.; Hsiang, Solomon M.",10.1126/science.aad9837,,,6304,Science,,"Social and economic impacts of climate",,353,2016,21459,a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aad9837
/reference/a90f4a5c-16d6-4fcb-81d7-50cd599de443,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a90f4a5c-16d6-4fcb-81d7-50cd599de443,a90f4a5c-16d6-4fcb-81d7-50cd599de443,,"Ouyang, Min",10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040,2014/01/01/,0951-8320,,"Reliability Engineering & System Safety",43-60,"Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems",,121,2014,21416,a90f4a5c-16d6-4fcb-81d7-50cd599de443,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040
/reference/aa1fec1f-b5c3-48b8-b17e-ca88da35eb4c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aa1fec1f-b5c3-48b8-b17e-ca88da35eb4c,aa1fec1f-b5c3-48b8-b17e-ca88da35eb4c,,"Hibbard, Kathy
Wilson, Tom
Averyt, Kristen
Harriss, Robert
Newmark, Robin
Rose, Steven
Shevliakova, Elena
Tidwell, Vincent",10.7930/J0JW8BSF,,,,,257-281,"Ch. 10: Energy, Water, and Land Use",,,2014,4721,aa1fec1f-b5c3-48b8-b17e-ca88da35eb4c,"Book Section",/report/nca3/chapter/water-energy-land-use
/reference/aae738d7-66a6-4470-bba4-1d82465d628c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aae738d7-66a6-4470-bba4-1d82465d628c,aae738d7-66a6-4470-bba4-1d82465d628c,"Efforts to restore ecosystems often focus on reintroducing apex predators to re-establish coevolved relationships among predators, herbivores and plants. The preponderance of evidence for indirect effects of predators on terrestrial plant communities comes from ecosystems where predators have been removed. Far less is known about the consequences of their restoration. The effects of removal and restoration are unlikely to be symmetrical because removing predators can create feedbacks that reinforce the effects of predator loss. Observational studies have suggested that the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park initiated dramatic restoration of riparian ecosystems by releasing willows from excessive browsing by elk. Here, we present results from a decade-long experiment in Yellowstone showing that moderating browsing alone was not sufficient to restore riparian zones along small streams. Instead, restoration of willow communities depended on removing browsing and restoring hydrological conditions that prevailed before the removal of wolves. The 70-year absence of predators from the ecosystem changed the disturbance regime in a way that was not reversed by predator reintroduction. We conclude that predator restoration may not quickly repair effects of predator removal in ecosystems.","Marshall, Kristin N.; Hobbs, N. Thompson; Cooper, David J.",10.1098/rspb.2012.2977,,,1756,"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",,"Stream hydrology limits recovery of riparian ecosystems after wolf reintroduction",,280,2013,25288,aae738d7-66a6-4470-bba4-1d82465d628c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1098/rspb.2012.2977
/reference/ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b,ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b,"The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.","O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Carter, Timothy R.; Mathur, Ritu; van Vuuren, Detlef P.",10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2,"February 01",1573-1480,3,"Climatic Change",387-400,"A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways","journal article",122,2014,16544,ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2