--- - attrs: Author: 'Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2959 Date: 04/27/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 445-451 Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' Title: Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change Type of Article: Perspective Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25287 _uuid: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2959 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601.yaml identifier: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 uri: /reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Simon, Herbert A.' Conference Location: 'Nashua, New Hampshire, USA' Conference Name: Proceedings from the International Conference on Complex Systems on Unifying Themes in Complex Systems Pages: 3-14 Place Published: 331794 Publisher: Perseus Books Title: Can there be a science of complex systems? Year: 2000 _record_number: 21403 _uuid: 87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/353cabe8-5993-46f4-9c7a-b086f9d098e3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152.yaml identifier: 87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 uri: /reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.' Author: 'Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112 Date: 'March 31, 2015' Issue: 13 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3931-3936 Title: Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19545 _uuid: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151.yaml identifier: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 uri: /reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 - attrs: Author: 'van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2903 Date: 04//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 4 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 375-380 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21334 _uuid: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2903 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572.yaml identifier: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 uri: /reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 - attrs: Author: 'Xiao, Mu; Koppa, Akash; Mekonnen, Zelalem; Pagán, Brianna R.; Zhan, Shengan; Cao, Qian; Aierken, Abureli; Lee, Hyongki; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.' DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073333 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 10 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: groundwater loss; Central Valley; water balance; 1829 Groundwater hydrology; 1876 Water budgets Pages: 4872-4879 Title: How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought? Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21388 _uuid: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL073333 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff.yaml identifier: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff uri: /reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Abstract: "California's Central Valley produces one quarter of the nation's food, much of it irrigated with groundwater. This chapter presents results of a continuing study of the application of Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to monitoring of land subsidence as a function of groundwater dynamics. It defines the full extent as well as the evolution from 2007 to 2011 of a large subsidence bowl in the southern San Joaquin Valley and presents the results in several different formats geared to different audiences. Further development, including subsurface geologic information, may allow more quantitative estimates of groundwater change based on InSAR subsidence histories. The aquifer system of the southern Central Valley has both unconfined and confined parts caused by alternating layers of coarse and fine‐grained sediments. Snow and surface water are of primary importance in the hydrologic cycle of California, and new techniques are today being applied to their mapping and monitoring." Author: 'Farr, Tom G.; Zhen Liu ' Book Title: Remote Sensing of the Terrestrial Water Cycle DOI: 10.1002/9781118872086.ch24 Editor: 'Venkat Lakshmi; Douglas Alsdorf; Martha Anderson; Sylvain Biancamaria; Michael Cosh; Jared Entin; George Huffman; William Kustas; van Oevelen, Peter; Thomas Painter; Juraj Parajka; Matthew Rodell; Christoph Rüdiger' Pages: 397-406 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: American Geophysical Union Series Volume: Geophysical Monograph Series 206 Title: Monitoring subsidence associated with groundwater dynamics in the Central Valley of California using interferometric radar Year: 2014 _record_number: 25295 _uuid: 8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/7fe5537e-ce34-4108-a9f0-1598b484f3ec href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a.yaml identifier: 8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a uri: /reference/8d05f053-d182-4a7d-b3d9-82d3ff77d03a - attrs: Abstract: 'With gray wolves restored to Yellowstone National Park, this ecosystem once again supports the full native array of large ungulates and their attendant large carnivores. We consider the possible ecological implications of wolf restoration in the context of another national park, Isle Royale, where wolves restored themselves a half-century ago. At Isle Royale, where resident mammals are relatively few, wolves completely eliminated coyotes and went on to influence moose population dynamics, which had implications for forest growth and composition. At Yellowstone, we predict that wolf restoration will have similar effects to a degree, reducing elk and coyote density. As at Isle Royale, Yellowstone plant communities will be affected, as will mesocarnivores, but to what degree is as yet undetermined. At Yellowstone, ecosystem response to the arrival of the wolf will take decades to unfold, and we argue that comprehensive ecological research and monitoring should be an essential long-term component of the management of Yellowstone National Park.' Author: 'Smith, Douglas W.; Peterson, Rolf O.; Houston, Douglas B.' DOI: '10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0330:YAW]2.0.CO;2' ISSN: 0006-3568 Issue: 4 Journal: BioScience Notes: '10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0330:YAW]2.0.CO;2' Pages: 330-340 Title: Yellowstone after Wolves Volume: 53 Year: 2003 _record_number: 25282 _uuid: 8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053%5B0330:YAW%5D2.0.CO;2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b.yaml identifier: 8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b uri: /reference/8d2320e9-e319-4e80-b7bd-60ad0bdbef3b - attrs: Author: 'Thornton, Peter E.; Calvin, Katherine; Jones, Andrew D.; Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Chini, Louise; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, Jae; Thomson, Allison; Truesdale, John; Craig, Anthony; Branstetter, Marcia L.; Hurtt, George' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3310 Date: 06/12/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 496-500 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Biospheric feedback effects in a synchronously coupled model of human and Earth systems Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25275 _uuid: 8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3310 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd.yaml identifier: 8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd uri: /reference/8f2df2be-1570-411c-a3f8-84d7a41a87cd - attrs: Author: 'Christophers, Brett' DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2017.1293502 Date: 2017/09/03 ISSN: 2469-4452 Issue: 5 Journal: Annals of the American Association of Geographers Pages: 1108-1127 Publisher: Taylor & Francis Title: 'Climate change and financial instability: Risk disclosure and the problematics of neoliberal governance' Volume: 107 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21456 _uuid: 923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/24694452.2017.1293502 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63.yaml identifier: 923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63 uri: /reference/923d9247-ef68-48fe-b4fc-66d5649d0b63 - attrs: Author: 'Panteli, Mathaios; Kirschen, Daniel S.' DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2015.01.008 Date: 2015/05/01/ ISSN: 0378-7796 Journal: Electric Power Systems Research Keywords: Control center; Decision-making; Power systems; Situation awareness; Power System Observability; Power System Operation Pages: 140-151 Title: 'Situation awareness in power systems: Theory, challenges and applications' Volume: 122 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21414 _uuid: 9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.epsr.2015.01.008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa.yaml identifier: 9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa uri: /reference/9278107f-e3d4-4d4b-92db-a72057d3a5fa - attrs: Author: 'Carreras, B. A.; D. E. Newman; Ian Dobson' DOI: 10.1063/1.4868393 Issue: 2 Journal: 'Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science' Pages: 023104 Title: Does size matter? Volume: 24 Year: 2014 _record_number: 25268 _uuid: 930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1063/1.4868393 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6.yaml identifier: 930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6 uri: /reference/930663cf-bb7f-495f-b974-c64f47ea35e6 - attrs: Abstract: 'Wildland fire management has reached a crossroads. Current perspectives are not capable of answering interdisciplinary adaptation and mitigation challenges posed by increases in wildfire risk to human populations and the need to reintegrate fire as a vital landscape process. Fire science has been, and continues to be, performed in isolated “silos,” including institutions (e.g., agencies versus universities), organizational structures (e.g., federal agency mandates versus local and state procedures for responding to fire), and research foci (e.g., physical science, natural science, and social science). These silos tend to promote research, management, and policy that focus only on targeted aspects of the “wicked” wildfire problem. In this article, we provide guiding principles to bridge diverse fire science efforts to advance an integrated agenda of wildfire research that can help overcome disciplinary silos and provide insight on how to build fire-resilient communities.' Author: 'Smith, Alistair M. S.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Paveglio, Travis B.; Cochrane, Mark A.; Bowman, David M. J. S.; Moritz, Max A.; Kliskey, Andrew D.; Alessa, Lilian; Hudak, Andrew T.; Hoffman, Chad M.; Lutz, James A.; Queen, Lloyd P.; Goetz, Scott J.; Higuera, Philip E.; Boschetti, Luigi; Flannigan, Mike; Yedinak, Kara M.; Watts, Adam C.; Strand, Eva K.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.; Anderson, John W.; Stocks, Brian J.; Abatzoglou, John T.' DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biv182 ISSN: 0006-3568 Issue: 2 Journal: BioScience Pages: 130-146 Title: 'The science of firescapes: Achieving fire-resilient communities' Volume: 66 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21402 _uuid: 93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/biosci/biv182 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418.yaml identifier: 93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418 uri: /reference/93e74b72-dff9-4cc6-96e2-2dfd76d9c418 - attrs: Author: 'de Bremond, Ariane; Preston, Benjamin L.; Rice, Jennie' DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.004 Date: 2014/10/01/ ISSN: 1462-9011 Journal: Environmental Science & Policy Keywords: Climate change; Energy; Adaptation; Integrated assessment; Decision-making Pages: 45-55 Title: 'Improving the usability of integrated assessment for adaptation practice: Insights from the U.S. southeast energy sector' Volume: 42 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21451 _uuid: 9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envsci.2014.05.004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b.yaml identifier: 9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b uri: /reference/9582d876-1c21-4d18-995e-f69ace96ae3b - attrs: Author: 'Ayyub, Bilal M.' DOI: 10.1061/AJRUA6.0000826 Issue: 3 Journal: 'ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering' Pages: 04015008 Title: 'Practical resilience metrics for planning, design, and decision making' Volume: 1 Year: 2015 _record_number: 25265 _uuid: 97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1061/AJRUA6.0000826 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24.yaml identifier: 97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24 uri: /reference/97189668-36ce-4b55-9550-f10a6ebdea24 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'OBJECTIVE: This study assessed the health effects of the 2003 Northeastern blackout, the largest one in history, on mortality and hospital admissions due to respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases in New York City (NYC), and compared the disease patterns and sociodemographic profiles of cases during the blackout with those on control days. METHOD: We investigated the effects of the blackout on health using incidence rate ratios to compare the disease on blackout days (August 14 and 15, 2003) with those on normal and comparably hot days (controls). Normal days were defined as summer days (June-August) between the 25th and 75th percentiles of maximum temperature during 1991-2004. Comparably hot days were days with maximum temperatures in the same range as that of the blackout days. We evaluated the interactive effects of demographics and the blackout using a case-only design. RESULTS: We found that mortality and respiratory hospital admissions in NYC increased significantly (two- to eightfold) during the blackout, but cardiovascular and renal hospitalizations did not. The most striking increases occurred among elderly, female, and chronic bronchitis admissions. We identified stronger effects during the blackout than on comparably hot days. In contrast to the pattern observed for comparably hot days, higher socioeconomic status groups were more likely to be hospitalized during the blackout. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that power outages may have important health impacts, even stronger than the effects of heat alone. The findings provide some direction for future emergency planning and public health preparedness.' Author: 'Lin, S.; Fletcher, B. A.; Luo, M.; Chinery, R.; Hwang, S-. A.' Author Address: 'New York State Department of Health, Center for Environmental Health, Bureau of Environmental and Occupational Epidemiology, 547 River St., Room 200, Troy, NY 12180-2216, USA. sxl05@health.state.ny.us' DOI: 10.1177/003335491112600312 Date: May-Jun ISSN: 1468-2877 Issue: 3 Journal: Public Health Reports Keywords: Climate; Disaster Planning; *Electricity; Female; Hospitalization/*statistics & numerical data; Humans; Male; New York City/epidemiology; Poisson Distribution; Respiratory Tract Diseases/*epidemiology; Risk Factors; Seasons; Socioeconomic Factors PMC: 3072860 PMCID: PMC3072860 Pages: 384-93 Title: Health impact in New York City during the Northeastern blackout of 2003 URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3072860 Volume: 126 Year: 2011 _chapter: Ch7 _record_number: 16321 _uuid: 9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/pmc-3072860 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115.yaml identifier: 9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115 uri: /reference/9a6c7a87-5c0f-4d64-904c-c707f68f2115 - attrs: Abstract: 'Wildfire is an ever present, natural process shaping landscapes. Having the ability to accurately measure and predict wildfire occurrence and impacts to ecosystem goods and services, both retrospectively and prospectively, is critical for adaptive management of landscapes. Landscape vulnerability is a concept widely utilized in the ecosystem management literature that has not been explicitly defined, particularly with regard to wildfire. Vulnerability more broadly is defined by three primary components: exposure to the stressor, sensitivity to a range of stressor variability, and resilience following exposure. In this synthesis, we define vulnerability in the context of wildfire. We first identify the components of a guiding framework for a vulnerability assessment with respect to wildfire. We then address retrospective assessments of wildfire vulnerability and the data that have been developed and utilized to complete these assessments. Finally, we review the modeling efforts that allow for predictive and probabilistic assessment of future vulnerability. Throughout the synthesis, we highlight gaps in the research, data availability, and models used to complete vulnerability assessments.' Author: 'Vaillant, Nicole M.; Kolden, Crystal A.; Smith, Alistair M. S.' DOI: 10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1 Date: September 01 ISSN: 2198-6436 Issue: 3 Journal: Current Forestry Reports Pages: 201-213 Title: Assessing landscape vulnerability to wildfire in the USA Type of Article: journal article Volume: 2 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21396 _uuid: 9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s40725-016-0040-1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772.yaml identifier: 9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772 uri: /reference/9af1f157-5f58-48ec-a0c3-a6ae2a74c772 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Hayhoe, K.; J. Edmonds; R.E. Kopp; A.N. LeGrande; B.M. Sanderson; M.F. Wehner; D.J. Wuebbles' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0WH2N54 Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 133-160 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Climate Models, Scenarios, and Projections' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21562 _uuid: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/projections href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771.yaml identifier: 9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 uri: /reference/9c909a77-a1d9-477d-82fc-468a6b1af771 - attrs: Author: 'Zhou, Q.; Leng, G.; Huang, M.' DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-305-2018 ISSN: 1607-7938 Issue: 1 Journal: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Notes: HESS Pages: 305-316 Publisher: Copernicus Publications Title: 'Impacts of future climate change on urban flood volumes in Hohhot in northern China: Benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptations' Volume: 22 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25277 _uuid: 9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/hess-22-305-2018 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7.yaml identifier: 9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7 uri: /reference/9cd4ecef-7a09-416a-81e8-6af572d12bc7 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Gilbert, Stanley W.; Butry, David T.; Helgeson, Jennifer F.; Chapman, Robert E. ' DOI: 10.6028/NIST.SP.1197 Institution: National Institute of Standards and Technology Pages: 52 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Report Number: NIST Special Publication 1197 Title: Community Resilience Economic Decision Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems Year: 2015 _record_number: 25296 _uuid: 9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd reftype: Report child_publication: /report/community-resilience-economic-decision-guide-buildings-infrastructure-systems href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd.yaml identifier: 9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd uri: /reference/9eb51e22-e5c8-4f74-96b9-4525b48135fd - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Abstract: 'High-reliability management of critical infrastructures-the safe and continued provision of electricity, natural gas, telecommunications, transportation, and water-is a social imperative. Loss of service in interconnected critical infrastructure systems (ICISs) after hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, and tsunamis and their delayed large-scale recovery have turned these events into catastrophes. Reliability and Risk reveals a neglected management dimension and provides a new framework for understanding interconnected infrastructures, their potential for cascading failure, and how to improve their reliability and reduce risk of system failure. The book answers two questions: How are modern interconnected infrastructures managed and regulated for reliability? How can policy makers, analysts, managers, and citizenry better promote reliability in interconnected systems whose failures can scarcely be imagined? The current consensus is that the answers lie in better design, technology, and regulation, but the book argues that these have inevitable shortfalls and that it is dangerous to stop there. The framework developed in Reliability and Risk draws from first-of-its-kind research at the infrastructure crossroads of California, the California Delta, in the San Francisco Bay region. The book demonstrates that infrastructure reliability in an interconnected world must be managed by system professionals in real time.' Author: 'Schulman, Paul; Roe, Emery' DOI: 10.11126/stanford/9780804793933.001.0001 ISBN: 9780804793933 Keywords: High-reliability management; interconnected critical infrastructure systems; risk assessment; risk management; infrastructure design technology regulation; system failure; large-scale recovery; regulated reliability; ER Language: eng Publisher: Stanford University Press Title: 'Reliability and Risk: The Challenge of Managing Interconnected Infrastructures' Year: 2016 _record_number: 25304 _uuid: 9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6 reftype: Book child_publication: /book/reliability-risk-challenge-managing-interconnected-infrastructures href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6.yaml identifier: 9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6 uri: /reference/9f316b11-0ea5-4aff-b638-9bb9737cd7b6 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Wehner, M.F.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' DOI: 10.7930/J0CJ8BNN Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 231-256 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Droughts, Floods, and Wildfires' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21566 _uuid: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89.yaml identifier: a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 uri: /reference/a29b612b-8c28-4c93-9c18-19314babce89 - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Darley, Vince' Conference Location: 'Massachusette Institute of Technology, Boston' Conference Name: 'Artificial Life IV: Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on the Synthesis and Simulation of Living Systems' Date: 6-8 July 1994 Notes: 'ISBN: 9780262521901 (out of stock)' Pages: 411-406 Publisher: MIT Press Title: Emergent phenomena and complexity URL: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.76.9965&rep=rep1&type=pdf Year: 1994 _record_number: 21453 _uuid: a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/5e4deda1-51f0-4b47-91f3-45a78c581bfe href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0.yaml identifier: a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0 uri: /reference/a4feb2d0-0a82-4f20-98af-89c295b177c0 - attrs: Author: 'Gain, Animesh K.; Josselin J. Rouillard; David Benson ' DOI: '10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A003 ' Issue: 4A Journal: Journal of Water Resource and Protection Pages: 11-20 Title: 'Can integrated water resources management increase adaptive capacity to climate change adaptation? A critical review' Volume: 5 Year: 2013 _record_number: 21440 _uuid: a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.4236/jwarp.2013.54A003%20 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df.yaml identifier: a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df uri: /reference/a628fcb3-4e2a-4f3e-b6f2-1bce04b5d6df - attrs: Abstract: 'For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research has begun to illuminate key linkages in the coupling of these complex natural and human systems, uncovering notable effects of climate on health, agriculture, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. ADVANCESPast scholars of climate-society interactions were limited to theorizing on the basis of anecdotal evidence; advances in computing, data availability, and study design now allow researchers to draw generalizable causal inferences tying climatic events to social outcomes. This endeavor has demonstrated that a range of climate factors have substantial influence on societies and economies, both past and present, with important implications for the future.Temperature, in particular, exerts remarkable influence over human systems at many social scales; heat induces mortality, has lasting impact on fetuses and infants, and incites aggression and violence while lowering human productivity. High temperatures also damage crops, inflate electricity demand, and may trigger population movements within and across national borders. Tropical cyclones cause mortality, damage assets, and reduce economic output for long periods. Precipitation extremes harm economies and populations predominately in agriculturally dependent settings. These effects are often quantitatively substantial; for example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields roughly 48%, warming trends since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by 11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by 0.28 percentage points year−1. Much research aims to forecast impacts of future climate change, but we point out that society may also benefit from attending to ongoing impacts of climate in the present, because current climatic conditions impose economic and social burdens on populations today that rival in magnitude the projected end-of-century impacts of climate change. For instance, we calculate that current temperature climatologies slow global economic growth roughly 0.25 percentage points year−1, comparable to the additional slowing of 0.28 percentage points year−1 projected from future warming.Both current and future losses can theoretically be avoided if populations adapt to fully insulate themselves from the climate—why this has not already occurred everywhere remains a critical open question. For example, clear patterns of adaptation in health impacts and in response to tropical cyclones contrast strongly with limited adaptation in agricultural and macroeconomic responses to temperature. Although some theories suggest these various levels of adaptation ought to be economically optimal, in the sense that costs of additional adaptive actions should exactly balance the benefits of avoided climate-related losses, there is no evidence that allows us to determine how closely observed “adaptation gaps” reflect optimal investments or constrained suboptimal adaptation that should be addressed through policy. OUTLOOKRecent findings provide insight into the historical evolution of the global economy; they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we understand the consequences of future climate changes. Although climate is clearly not the only factor that affects social and economic outcomes, new quantitative measurements reveal that it is a major factor, often with first-order consequences. Research over the coming decade will seek to understand the numerous mechanisms that drive these effects, with the hope that policy may interfere with the most damaging pathways of influence. Both current and future generations will benefit from near-term investigations. “Cracking the code” on when, where, and why adaptation is or is not successful will generate major social benefits today and in the future. In addition, calculations used to design global climate change olicies require as input “damage functions” that describe how social and economic losses accrue under different climatic conditions, essential elements that now can (and should) be calibrated to real-world relationships. Designing effective, efficient, and fair policies to manage anthropogenic climate change requires that we possess a quantitative grasp of how different investments today may affect economic and social possibilities in the future.Two globes depict two possible futures for how the climate might change and how those changes are likely to affect humanity, based on recent empirical findings.Base colors are temperature change under “Business as usual” (left, RCP 8.5) and “stringent emissions mitigation” (right, RCP 2.6). Overlaid are composite satellite images of nighttime lights with rescaled intensity reflecting changes in economic productivity in each climate scenario.For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.%U ; http://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/353/6304/aad9837.full.pdf' Author: 'Carleton, Tamma A.; Hsiang, Solomon M.' DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837 Issue: 6304 Journal: Science Title: Social and economic impacts of climate Volume: 353 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21459 _uuid: a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aad9837 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63.yaml identifier: a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63 uri: /reference/a73835ed-0558-4fe3-bccf-e61b4014ed63