--- - attrs: Abstract: 'The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood-control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model, can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use.' Author: 'Faunt, Claudia C.; Sneed, Michelle; Traum, Jon; Brandt, Justin T.' DOI: 10.1007/s10040-015-1339-x Date: May 01 ISSN: 1435-0157 Issue: 3 Journal: Hydrogeology Journal Pages: 675-684 Title: 'Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 24 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25269 _uuid: 6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10040-015-1339-x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04.yaml identifier: 6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04 uri: /reference/6677226e-8dbf-4f43-a070-5950fd020a04 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: 'Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Bilello, D.; Schmalzer, D.; Scott, M.' ISBN: 9781610915526 Publisher: Island Press Series Editor: 'Wilbanks, Thomas J.' Title: Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use. Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment URL: https://islandpress.org/book/climate-change-and-energy-supply-and-use Year: 2014 _record_number: 21391 _uuid: 66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/ornl-climchenergy-2012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6.yaml identifier: 66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6 uri: /reference/66fa5de6-5f51-4d35-a6dc-ecc243575ac6 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "McKenzie, D.\rPeterson, D.L.\rLittell, J.J." Book Title: Developments in Environmental Sciences DOI: 10.1016/S1474-8177(08)00015-6 Editor: "Bytnerowicz, Andrzej\rArbaugh, Michael J.\rRiebau, Allen R.\rAndersen, Christian" ISBN: 978-0-08-055609-3 Pages: 319-337 Publisher: 'Elsevier, Ltd.' Reviewer: 6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b Title: 'Ch. 15: Global warming and stress complexes in forests of western North America' URL: http://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/4451/psw_2009_4451-001_319-338.pdf Volume: 8 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1953 _uuid: 6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/90797532-c388-4ee0-8635-ea25b3261754 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b.yaml identifier: 6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b uri: /reference/6a236496-3436-481f-a3a4-ce35b52c0f0b - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Kopp, R.E.; D.R. Easterling; T. Hall; K. Hayhoe; R. Horton; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande' Book Title: 'Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I' Chapter: Ch. 15 DOI: 10.7930/J0GB227J Editor: 'Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock' Pages: 411-429 Place Published: 'Washington, DC, USA' Publisher: U.S. Global Change Research Program Title: 'Potential Surprises: Compound Extremes and Tipping Elements' Year: 2017 _record_number: 21573 _uuid: 6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22.yaml identifier: 6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 uri: /reference/6b87bc9c-d8f5-438a-9693-7b33324f4c22 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: 'Perrow, Charles' Edition: Updated ISBN: '140082849X, 9781400828494' Number of Pages: 464 Place Published: 'Princeton, NJ' Publisher: Princeton University Press Title: 'Normal Accidents: Living with High Risk Technologies' URL: http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6596.html Year: 2011 _record_number: 21412 _uuid: 6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a reftype: Book child_publication: /book/normal-accidents-living-high-risk-technologies href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a.yaml identifier: 6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a uri: /reference/6e8c3e16-343a-43bb-8476-6a4304a3464a - attrs: Author: 'Shapiro, Shari' DOI: 10.1080/09613218.2016.1156957 Date: 2016/08/17 ISSN: 0961-3218 Issue: 5-6 Journal: Building Research & Information Pages: 490-506 Publisher: Routledge Title: 'The realpolitik of building codes: Overcoming practical limitations to climate resilience' Volume: 44 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25284 _uuid: 6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1080/09613218.2016.1156957 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba.yaml identifier: 6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba uri: /reference/6ea115a7-00dc-4ac4-816d-270841586bba - attrs: Author: 'Zanella, A.; N. Bui; A. Castellani; L. Vangelista; M. Zorzi' DOI: 10.1109/JIOT.2014.2306328 ISSN: 2327-4662 Issue: 1 Journal: IEEE Internet of Things Journal Keywords: Internet; Internet of Things; protocols; Padova smart city project; Smart City vision; advanced communication technology; digital services; heterogeneous end systems; link layer technology; urban IoT system; value-addedservices; Business; IEEE 802.15 Standards; Monitoring; Smart buildings; Smart homes; Urban areas; 6lowPAN; Constrained Application Protocol (CoAP); Efficient XML Interchange (EXI); Smart Cities; network architecture; sensor system integration; service functions and management; testbed and trials Pages: 22-32 Title: Internet of things for smart cities Volume: 1 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21389 _uuid: 6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1109/JIOT.2014.2306328 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b.yaml identifier: 6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b uri: /reference/6f4b0d29-f2b3-4bef-9c25-8b3bbf1fea9b - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Klein, R. J. T.; Midgley, G. F.; Preston, B. L.; Alam, M.; Berkhout, F. G. H.; Dow, K.; Shaw, M. R.' Book Title: 'Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change' Editor: 'Field, C. B.; Barros, V. R.; Dokken, D. J.; Mach, K. J.; Mastrandrea, M. D.; Bilir, T. E.; Chatterjee, M.; Ebi, K. L.; Estrada, Y. O.; Genova, R. C.; Girma, B.; Kissel, E. S.; Levy, A. N.; MacCracken, S.; Mastrandrea, P. R.; White, L. L.' Pages: 899-943 Place Published: 'Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Short Title: 'Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits' Title: 'Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits' Year: 2014 _record_number: 17687 _uuid: 6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta/chapter/wg2-ar5-chap16-final href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf.yaml identifier: 6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf uri: /reference/6f504af2-a3a0-46c3-a8bd-9f5f266bd5bf - attrs: Abstract: 'Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC). DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.' Accession Number: 10.3390/su71114761 Author: 'Larson, Kelli; White, Dave; Gober, Patricia; Wutich, Amber' ISSN: 2071-1050 Issue: 11 Journal: Sustainability Keywords: urban; water; SW; climate change; Adaptation Pages: 14761-14784 Title: Decision-making under uncertainty for water sustainability and urban climate change adaptation URL: http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/7/11/14761 Volume: 7 Year: 2015 _record_number: 22773 _uuid: 6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/decision-making-under-uncertainty-water-sustainability-urban-climate-change-adaptation href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3.yaml identifier: 6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3 uri: /reference/6fe6f42c-4d13-4d5c-9359-e76e276e90a3 - attrs: Author: 'Ernst, Kathleen M.; Preston, Benjamin L.' DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2017.01.001 Date: 4// ISSN: 1462-9011 Journal: Environmental Science & Policy Keywords: Climate change; Energy; Water; Adaptation; Decision-making; Scale Pages: 38-45 Title: 'Adaptation opportunities and constraints in coupled systems: Evidence from the U.S. energy-water nexus' Volume: 70 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21444 _uuid: 747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.01.001 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba.yaml identifier: 747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba uri: /reference/747e6b30-6afc-4520-af4b-660389e167ba - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Kenward, Alyson; Raja, Urooj' Institution: Climate Central Pages: 23 Place Published: 'Princeton, NJ' Title: 'Blackout: Extreme Weather, Climate Change and Power Outages' URL: http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/PowerOutages.pdf Year: 2014 _record_number: 25300 _uuid: 75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/blackout-extreme-weather-climate-change-power-outages href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70.yaml identifier: 75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70 uri: /reference/75dd41da-a739-4ec3-a365-d72465c80b70 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force,' Institution: U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force Pages: 228 Place Published: 'Washington, DC and Ottawa, Canada' Title: 'August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations. Final Report' URL: https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/oeprod/DocumentsandMedia/BlackoutFinal-Web.pdf Year: 2004 _record_number: 25309 _uuid: 78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/august-14-2003-blackout-united-states-canada-causes-recommendations-final-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5.yaml identifier: 78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5 uri: /reference/78342524-50c8-4468-8127-49c52ac213c5 - attrs: Author: 'Bramer, L. M.; Rounds, J.; Burleyson, C. D.; Fortin, D.; Hathaway, J.; Rice, J.; Kraucunas, I.' DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.087 ISSN: 0306-2619 Journal: Applied Energy Keywords: Electrical grid; Grid stress; Heatwave; Statistical modeling Title: Evaluating penalized logistic regression models to predict heat-related electric grid stress days Year: 2017 _record_number: 21385 _uuid: 7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.09.087 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492.yaml identifier: 7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492 uri: /reference/7888f243-1665-47b2-8c11-015c30dce492 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Blomdahl, Karl Sundequist; Pierre Flener; Justin Pearson' Book Title: 'Principles and Practice of Constraint Programming—CP 2010 (16th International Conference, St. Andrews, Scotland, 6-10 Sep 2010)' Editor: 'Cohen, D.' ISBN: 978-3-642-15396-9 Pages: 643-657 Place Published: Berlin Publisher: Springer Title: Contingency plans for air traffic management Year: 2010 _record_number: 21462 _uuid: 789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/bcba8a25-d65b-412d-a3e3-93fb89014b34 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926.yaml identifier: 789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926 uri: /reference/789d82f1-e7af-441d-b991-127e2cb90926 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Date: December 2012 Editor: "Vose, J. M.\rPeterson, D.L.\rPatel-Weynand, T." Number of Pages: 265 Place Published: 'Portland, OR' Publisher: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station' Title: 'Effects of Climatic Variability and Change on Forest Ecosystems: A Comprehensive Science Synthesis for the U.S. Forest Sector. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870' URL: http://www.usda.gov/oce/climate_change/effects_2012/FS_Climate1114%20opt.pdf Year: 2012 _chapter: '["RF 10","Ch. 28: Adaptation FINAL","Ch. 17: Southeast and Caribbean FINAL","Ch. 7: Forests FINAL"]' _record_number: 3307 _uuid: 78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /report/usfs-pnw-gtr-870 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1.yaml identifier: 78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 uri: /reference/78f2cbd8-d8f2-4d99-abbd-017bad4d52f1 - attrs: .reference_type: 1 Access Date: 'February 24, 2012' Author: 'NRC,' Number of Pages: 200 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: 'National Research Council, Panel on Strategies and Methods for Climate-Related Decision Support, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. National Academies Press' Reviewer: 7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0 Title: Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate URL: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12626 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 26: Decision Support FINAL","RF 12","Ch. 30: NCA Long-Term Process FINAL"]' _record_number: 2294 _uuid: 7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/nrc-inform-decisions-2009 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0.yaml identifier: 7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0 uri: /reference/7ab8b14a-38c7-4128-b0e3-fe1ab65edac0 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: "Janetos, A.C.\rClarke, L.\rCollins, B.\rEbi, K.\rEdmonds, J.\rFoster, I.\rJacoby, J.\rJudd, K.\rLeung, R.\rNewell, R." Institution: 'U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science' Pages: 80 Title: 'Science Challenges and Future Directions: Climate Change Integrated Assessment Research. Report PNNL-18417' URL: http://science.energy.gov/~/media/ber/pdf/ia_workshop_low_res_06_25_09.pdf Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 27: Mitigation FINAL"]' _record_number: 1498 _uuid: 7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/pnnl-18417 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649.yaml identifier: 7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649 uri: /reference/7ba2752c-4235-47bd-b854-40cde9dc2649 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'EPA,' Place Published: 'Dallas, TX' Publisher: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Title: 'Hurricane Harvey 2017 [web site]' URL: https://response.epa.gov/site/site_profile.aspx?site_id=12353 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25929 _uuid: 7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/ad9e30bd-1fe6-4395-8db8-9a849e8ed04b href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c.yaml identifier: 7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c uri: /reference/7d520322-84aa-4830-88c3-ead7d36b593c - attrs: Abstract: 'A decline in the stature and abundance of willows during the 20th century occurred throughout the northern range of Yellowstone National Park, where riparian woody‐plant communities are key components in multiple‐trophic‐level interactions. The potential causes of willow decline include climate change, increased elk browsing coincident with the loss of an apex predator, the gray wolf, and an absence of habitat engineering by beavers. The goal of this study was to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of willow establishment through the 20th century and to identify causal processes. Sampled willows established from 1917 to 1999 and contained far fewer young individuals than was predicted from a modeled stable willow population, indicating reduced establishment during recent decades. Two hydrologically distinct willow establishment environments were identified: fine‐grained beaver pond sediments and coarse‐grained alluvium. Willows established on beaver pond sediment earlier in time, higher on floodplain surfaces, and farther from the current stream channel than did willows on alluvial sediment. Significant linear declines from the 1940s to the 1990s in alluvial willow establishment elevation and lateral distance from the stream channel resulted in a much reduced area of alluvial willow establishment. Willow establishment was not well correlated with climate‐driven hydrologic variables, but the trends were consistent with the effects of stream channel incision initiated in ca. 1950, 20–30 years after beaver dam abandonment. Radiocarbon dates and floodplain stratigraphy indicate that stream incision of the present magnitude may be unprecedented in the past two millennia. We propose that hydrologic changes, stemming from competitive exclusion of beaver by elk overbrowsing, caused the landscape to transition from a historical beaver‐pond and willow‐mosaic state to its current alternative stable state where active beaver dams and many willow stands are absent. Because of hydrologic changes in streams, a rapid return to the historical state may not occur by reduction of elk browsing alone. Management intervention to restore the historical hydrologic regime may be necessary to recover willows and beavers across the landscape.' Author: 'Wolf, Evan C.; David J. Cooper; N. Thompson Hobbs' DOI: 10.1890/06-2042.1 Issue: 6 Journal: Ecological Applications Pages: 1572-1587 Title: Hydrologic regime and herbivory stabilize an alternative state in Yellowstone National Park Volume: 17 Year: 2007 _record_number: 25279 _uuid: 7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/06-2042.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be.yaml identifier: 7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be uri: /reference/7edc5360-aa30-4fb3-a339-d7fe0fc6b6be - attrs: Issue Date: August 27 Newspaper: Reuters Reporter: 'Scheyder, Ernest; Seba, Erwin' Title: Harvey throws a wrench into US energy engine URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-harvey-energy-idUSKCN1B70YQ Year: 2017 _record_number: 25303 _uuid: 7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26 reftype: Newspaper Article child_publication: /generic/c9323502-a934-4234-8b14-29456b9f1796 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26.yaml identifier: 7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26 uri: /reference/7ee8e741-d369-48d9-84c9-4a660e1d2b26 - attrs: Author: 'Maloney, Megan C.; Preston, Benjamin L.' DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2014.02.004 Date: 2014/01/01/ ISSN: 2212-0963 Journal: Climate Risk Management Keywords: Climate change; Storm surge; Hurricane; Sea-level rise; Coastal vulnerability; Exposure Pages: 26-41 Title: 'A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications' Volume: 2 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21331 _uuid: 828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.crm.2014.02.004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575.yaml identifier: 828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575 uri: /reference/828795a3-29d2-4d70-90c7-33a75ba99575 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Eldredge, Niles, and Stephen Jay Gould' Book Title: Models in Paleobiology Editor: 'Schopf, Thomas J. M.' ISBN: 978-0877353256 Pages: 82-115 Place Published: 'San Francisco, CA' Publisher: Freeman & Cooper Title: 'Punctuated equilibria: An alternative to phyletic gradualism' Year: 1972 _record_number: 21445 _uuid: 82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/d1870c8d-bea7-4eac-bf18-45badcbf0555 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168.yaml identifier: 82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168 uri: /reference/82abbb5d-1c8e-4178-82c3-249fb0fdf168 - attrs: Author: 'Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2959 Date: 04/27/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 445-451 Publisher: 'Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.' Title: Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change Type of Article: Perspective Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25287 _uuid: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2959 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601.yaml identifier: 843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 uri: /reference/843b8feb-de6f-42be-88f9-657915e75601 - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Simon, Herbert A.' Conference Location: 'Nashua, New Hampshire, USA' Conference Name: Proceedings from the International Conference on Complex Systems on Unifying Themes in Complex Systems Pages: 3-14 Place Published: 331794 Publisher: Perseus Books Title: Can there be a science of complex systems? Year: 2000 _record_number: 21403 _uuid: 87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/353cabe8-5993-46f4-9c7a-b086f9d098e3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152.yaml identifier: 87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 uri: /reference/87e9e534-034f-450c-b205-f268be5c2152 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.' Author: 'Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112 Date: 'March 31, 2015' Issue: 13 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3931-3936 Title: Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19545 _uuid: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151.yaml identifier: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 uri: /reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151