reference : Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios

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/report/nca4/chapter/southeast/reference/c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a “business as usual” (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated “avoided loss” from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.
Author Lane, Diana R.; Ready, Richard C.; Buddemeier, Robert W.; Martinich, Jeremy A.; Shouse, Kate Cardamone; Wobus, Cameron W.
DOI 10.1371/journal.pone.0082579
Issue 12
Journal PLOS ONE
Pages e82579
Publisher Public Library of Science
Title Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: Comparison of two scenarios
Volume 8
Year 2013
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 24344
_uuid c3eee222-c3b5-4e90-a034-5e90f96c2687