--- - attributes: ~ caption: "Temperatures increased across almost all of the Southwest region from 1901 to 2016, with the greatest increases in southern California and western Colorado.{{< tbib '23' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} This map shows the difference between 1986–2016 average temperature and 1901–1960 average temperature.{{< tbib '23' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Source: adapted from Vose et al. 2017.{{< tbib '23' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}}" chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-08-10T06:06:01 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-1-historical-termperature.yaml identifier: figure-25-1-historical-termperature lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 1 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-03T19:14:36 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Temperature Has Increased Across the Southwest uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-1-historical-termperature url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), extreme heat would increase across the Southwest, shown here as the increase in the average number of days per year where the temperature exceeds 90°F (32°C) by the period 2036–2065, compared to the period 1976–2005.{{< tbib '23' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Heat waves increase the exposure of people to heat stroke and other illnesses that could cause death.{{< tbib '30' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}} Source: adapted from Vose et al. 2017.{{< tbib '23' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}}" chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-10-27T18:26:42 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/fig--25-8-sw-extreme-heat-2017-10-27.yaml identifier: fig--25-8-sw-extreme-heat-2017-10-27 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 10 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-03T19:15:37 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Increases in Extreme Heat uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/fig--25-8-sw-extreme-heat-2017-10-27 url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'These examples illustrate actions that people, communities, and governments are taking in response to past impacts of climate change and future vulnerabilities. Coastal protection: In response to sea level rise and storm surge in San Francisco Bay, federal, state, and local agencies, supported by voter-approved funds, are restoring coastal habitats and levees to protect cities from flooding. Crop water savings: The risk of reduced food production increases as climate change intensifies drought. In the Gila River Basin, local government agencies have lined 15 miles (24 km) of irrigation canals to reduce seepage from the canals, saving enough water to irrigate approximately 8,500 acres (3,400 hectares) of alfalfa and other crops each year. Cultural fire restoration: Reintroduction of cultural burning by the Yurok Tribe in northern California reduces wildfire risks and protects public and tribal trust resources. Desert soil restoration: In Utah, transplanting native and drought-resistant microbial communities improves soil fertility and guards against erosion. Health protection: To reduce heat-associated injury and deaths on Arizona trails, the City of Phoenix and Arizona tourism organizations developed a campaign “Take a Hike. Do it Right.” Signs at trailheads and on websites remind hikers to bring water, stay hydrated, and stay aware of environmental conditions. Ranching and habitat: The Malpai Borderlands Group in Arizona and New Mexico integrates native plant and wildlife conservation into private ranching. Rooftop solar: The state governments of California, Colorado, and Nevada have enacted policies that support rooftop solar on homes, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions, improves reliability of the electricity generation system, and creates local small businesses and new jobs. Water conservation: Drought in the Colorado River Basin has reduced the volume of water in both Lake Mead and Lake Powell by over half. The United States, Mexico, and state governments have mobilized users to conserve water, keeping the lake above a critical level. Wildfire fuel reduction: In response to severe wildfires, the City of Flagstaff, Arizona, enacted a bond to fund reduction of fire fuels in forests around the town. Source: National Park Service.' chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2018-03-28T18:53:29 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/ch-25-response-actions.yaml identifier: ch-25-response-actions lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-11-29T21:03:56 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Actions Responding to Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/ch-25-response-actions url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Since 2000, drought that was intensified by long-term trends of higher temperatures due to climate change has reduced the flow in the Colorado River (top left), which in turn has reduced the combined contents of Lakes Powell and Mead to the lowest level since both lakes were first filled (top right). In the Upper Colorado River Basin that feeds the reservoirs, temperatures have increased (bottom left), which increases plant water use and evaporation, reducing lake inflows and contents. Although annual precipitation (bottom right) has been variable without a long-term trend, there has been a recent decline in precipitation that exacerbates the drought. Combined with increased Lower Basin water consumption that began in the 1990s, these trends explain the recently reduced reservoir contents. Straight lines indicate trends for temperature, precipitation, and river flow. The trends for temperature and river flow are statistically significant. Sources: Colorado State University and CICS-NC. Temperature and precipitation data from: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, accessed 20 June 2018." chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2018-03-28T19:13:25 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/severe-drought-reduces-water-supplies-in-the-southwest.yaml identifier: severe-drought-reduces-water-supplies-in-the-southwest lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-03T19:14:56 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Severe Drought Reduces Water Supplies in the Southwest uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/severe-drought-reduces-water-supplies-in-the-southwest url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "The cumulative forest area burned by wildfires has greatly increased between 1984 and 2015, with analyses estimating that the area burned by wildfire across the western United States over that period was twice what would have burned had climate change not occurred. Source: adapted from Abatzoglou and Williams 2016.{{< tbib '7' 'de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5' >}}" chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-08-10T06:17:50 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-3-wildfire.yaml identifier: figure-25-3-wildfire lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-11-29T21:04:46 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Climate Change Has Increased Wildfire uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-3-wildfire url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Sea level rise increases risks to infrastructure. At the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco, California, the tidal gauge with the longest time series in the Western Hemisphere shows that sea level has risen nearly 9 inches (22 cm) since 1854 (blue line).{{< tbib '236' '8e1ab38d-5d31-4a6a-8ad6-e06fe74a4aa1' >}},{{< tbib '295' '2ecc5a9e-ee7b-4387-ac16-d30785aab28c' >}} In 1897, the tidal gauge was moved, which caused a slight shift downward of the numerical level but no change in the long-term trend (trends indicated by the black lines). The bars show models projections of sea levels under a higher scenario (RCP8.5; red) and a very low scenario (RCP2.6; green).{{< tbib '242' 'a1aee4ba-d4fc-4f92-a74a-e37189c138b5' >}} The change in sea level is shown relative to the 1991–2009 average. Source: National Park Service." chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-08-10T06:26:49 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-4a-sea-level.yaml identifier: figure-25-4a-sea-level lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-03T18:25:36 time_end: 2100-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1854-07-01T00:00:00 title: Sea Level Rise uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-4a-sea-level url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Ocean warming increases risks to fisheries and shellfish. The graph shows observed ocean temperatures of the California Current from measurements (black line); modeled temperatures, extended into the future under the higher scenario (RCP8.5; red line); and the range of 10% to 90% of the 28 models used (pink).{{< tbib '254' '87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602' >}},{{< tbib '296' 'ea364386-1191-4070-b0c3-5fad624883ca' >}},{{< tbib '297' '777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263' >}} Sources: National Park Service and NOAA." chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2018-07-02T13:21:59 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-6-ocean-temps.yaml identifier: figure-25-6-ocean-temps lat_max: 90 lat_min: -90 lon_max: 180 lon_min: -180 ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-11-30T20:12:28 time_end: 2040-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1920-01-01T00:00:00 title: Ocean Temperature Increase uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-6-ocean-temps url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'Andy Lamebear, a Yurok Wildland Fire Department firefighter and Yurok tribal member, ignites a cultural burn on the Yurok Reservation. The tribe uses low- to medium- intensity fires to enhance the production of plant-based medicines, traditional basket materials, native fruits, and forage for wildlife. Cultural burning also reduces risks of catastrophic wildfire. Photo courtesy of the Yurok Tribe.' chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-08-10T06:37:24 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-5-yurok-tribe.yaml identifier: figure-25-5-yurok-tribe lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-11-29T21:05:12 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Cultural Fire on Yurok Reservation uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-5-yurok-tribe url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2{{< tbib '174' 'c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682' >}}), heat-induced reduction of energy efficiency and reduced water flows would reduce summer energy generation capacity across the Southwest region. These projected reductions would increase risks of electricity shortages. The map shows projected changes for the period 2040–2060 compared to the period 1949–2010. Sources: adapted from Bartos and Chester 2015.{{< tbib '346' '2de42597-d1db-4d2c-92d7-42441d80e2e5' >}} Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd.
This figure was revised in June 2019. See Errata for details: https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/downloads" chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2017-08-10T06:41:04 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-6-energy.yaml identifier: figure-25-6-energy lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2019-06-11T15:41:35 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Electricity Generation Capacity at Risk Under Continued Climate Change uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/figure-25-6-energy url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'The U.S. Department of Agriculture plant hardiness zones indicate the cold temperature requirements of crops. Increases in temperature under the higher scenario (RCP8.5), would shift these zones northward and upslope, from the period 1976—2005 (left, modeled historical) compared to projections for 2070—2099 (right, average of 32 general circulation models). Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC' chapter_identifier: southwest create_dt: 2018-04-09T11:44:07 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/usda-hardiness-zones.yaml identifier: usda-hardiness-zones lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-03T19:15:19 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Shift in Agricultural Zones uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/figure/usda-hardiness-zones url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information