You are viewing /report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5 in Turtle
Alternatives : HTML JSON YAML text N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
Raw
@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   dcterms:identifier "key-message-25-5";
   gcis:findingNumber "25.5"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement " <p>The ability of hydropower and fossil fuel electricity generation to meet growing energy use in the Southwest is decreasing as a result of drought and rising temperatures (<em>very likely, very high confidence</em>). Many renewable energy sources offer increased electricity reliability, lower water intensity of energy generation, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and new economic opportunities (<em>likely, high confidence</em>).</p>"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "<p>The authors examined the scientific literature in their areas of expertise. The team placed the highest weight on scientific articles published in refereed peer-reviewed journals. Other sources included published books, government technical reports, and, for data, government websites. The U.S. Global Change Research Program issued a public call for technical input and provided the authors with the submissions. The University of Arizona Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions organized the Southwest Regional Stakeholder Engagement Workshop on January 28, 2017, with over 70 participants at the main location in Tucson, AZ, and dozens of participants in Albuquerque, NM, Boulder, CO, Davis, CA, Los Angeles, CA, Reno, NV, and Salt Lake City, UT, all connected by video. Participants included scientists and managers. The author team met the following day for their only meeting in person. Subsequently, authors held discussions in regular teleconferences. Many chapter authors met at the all-author meeting March 26–28, 2018, in Bethesda, MD.</p>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p>Numerous studies link Southwest hydrologic drought with a decline in renewable hydroelectricity generation in the region. Hydroelectric generation depends on runoff to fill reservoirs to maximize generation capacity.{{< tbib '336' '7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '337' 'e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5' >}} During the California drought, which was intensified by climate change,{{< tbib '14' 'ba57f86f-c42f-4bba-83f6-676d6875c176' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '56' '89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151' >}} hydroelectric generation in California fell from 43 trillion watt-hours (TWh) in 2011 before the drought to 14 TWh in 2015 during the drought.{{< tbib '335' '8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4' >}} Climate change also reduced the snowpack{{< tbib '46' 'fd8947cd-6705-4ec7-9126-0444a730d48a' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '47' '3c0fc226-ca97-4b80-aeb7-517cd5d1acff' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '48' 'e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '49' '0d8b090e-e060-4f9d-a442-b7e050608a20' >}} and river runoff on which hydroelectric generation depends.{{< tbib '336' '7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '337' 'e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5' >}}</p> <p>Similarly, low reservoir levels in Lake Mead—which is formed by damming the Colorado River—driven by reduced Colorado River runoff{{< tbib '13' 'a42c4f5e-f16b-4196-af05-61f117e0491d' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '59' '3d53beca-0617-4351-a7e9-f5af06a049dc' >}} can reduce the efficiency and production levels of hydropower at Hoover Dam.</p> <p>Fossil fuel generation efficiency depends on the temperature and availability of the external cooling water. Warming could reduce energy efficiency up to 15% across the Southwest by 2100.{{< tbib '91' '8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572' >}} Higher temperatures also increase electric resistance in transmission lines, causing transmission losses of 7% under higher emissions.{{< tbib '344' '673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6' >}} Replacing fossil fuel generation with solar power renewables reduces greenhouse gas emissions and water use per unit of electricity generated.{{< tbib '90' '437ba8f2-66cf-44f5-8bea-173c02458858' >}} This supports the assertion that increasing solar energy generation in the Southwest could meet the energy demand no longer being met by hydropower and fossil fuel as well as the expected increase in energy use in the future.</p> <p>Solar energy production is also an economic opportunity for the region. The energy potential for renewable energy is estimated to range from one-third to over ten times 2013 generation levels from all sources.{{< tbib '502' '2c0c6750-e017-4590-b7aa-e1756bc7854b' >}} The lower range assumes capacity requirements remain at 2013 levels,{{< tbib '502' '2c0c6750-e017-4590-b7aa-e1756bc7854b' >}} but recent data show an upward trend in Southwest energy use.{{< tbib '89' 'ab3cc54d-c74f-4a6d-8746-efa051c2e97e' >}}</p> <p>The high potential for solar energy projects in the Southwest and the extent of federally owned land in the Southwest (well over half the total surface area for the six-state region) prompted the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the U.S. Department of Energy to conduct a programmatic environmental impact analysis of a new Solar Energy Program to further support utility-scale solar energy development on BLM-administered lands.{{< tbib '502' '2c0c6750-e017-4590-b7aa-e1756bc7854b' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '503' '607ad598-58b0-46e3-8371-bede11c93089' >}} This potential capacity, combined with the increasingly competitive cost of solar and wind,{{< tbib '504' '1f8c0eab-9564-4064-bd8e-b98c135744e9' >}} presents economic opportunities for the region and an opportunity to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.</p> <p>Solar and renewable energy jobs are increasing. The solar workforce increased 25% in 2016, while wind employment increased 32%.{{< tbib '505' '92b75533-4ebe-4cad-af48-6789b4627f47' >}} Jobs in low-carbon-emission generation systems, including renewables, nuclear, and advanced low-emission natural gas, comprise 45% of all the jobs in the electric power generation and fuels technologies.{{< tbib '505' '92b75533-4ebe-4cad-af48-6789b4627f47' >}} Growing Southwest energy use, competitive prices for renewables, and the renewable energy potential of the Southwest favor the replacement of fossil-fuel-generated energy by renewable solar and wind energy.</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<p>Hydrological drought in California reduced hydroelectric generation{{< tbib '335' '8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4' >}} and fossil fuel electricity generation efficiencies. Drought and rising temperatures under climate change can reduce the ability of hydropower and fossil fuel electricity generation to meet growing energy use in the Southwest (<em>very likely, very high confidence</em>). Renewable solar and wind energy offers increased electricity reliability, lower water intensity for energy generation, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and new economic opportunities (<em>likely, high confidence</em>).</p> "^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "<p>Climate model projections of the future diverge on whether precipitation may increase or decrease for much of the region, so hydroelectric power changes may exhibit spatial variation. The amount of runoff is a key factor driving the generation potential for hydroelectric power. A key uncertainty is how much hydroelectricity generation will decline. Some projections of higher-than-average precipitation in the northern parts of the Southwest could roughly offset declines in warm-season runoff associated with warming.{{< tbib '105' '9d8a98fa-0338-486a-b902-cd02d43cae87' >}}</p> <p>Energy demand in the Southwest is increasing, but the rate of growth is uncertain.{{< tbib '506' '561029d5-4494-43bf-98d2-96ad38606588' >}} Changes in energy market prices cause future uncertainty in the future mix of energy sources for the Southwest.{{< tbib '502' '2c0c6750-e017-4590-b7aa-e1756bc7854b' >}} The low cost of natural gas and the competitive cost of solar and wind renewables make it somewhat certain the proportion of the energy generated from these sources will continue to increase and offset reductions in traditional fossil-fuel-generated energy, reducing overall greenhouse gas emissions.{{< tbib '504' '1f8c0eab-9564-4064-bd8e-b98c135744e9' >}} Renewable energy job growth potential is also uncertain and depends on the factors mentioned above.{{< tbib '505' '92b75533-4ebe-4cad-af48-6789b4627f47' >}}</p> <p>Additionally, daily to multiyear variation in coastal cloud cover affects solar electricity generation potential along the California coast.{{< tbib '507' 'beba4436-bbd0-43c2-bd04-e6000c5e4a27' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '508' '60730cd1-dc90-4add-957b-2a32981cf398' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '509' '566f09cf-bf52-4392-90d5-3b96d6c42c93' >}}<sup class='cm'>,</sup>{{<tbib '510' '753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89' >}}</p> "^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2008JCLI2405.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0d8b090e-e060-4f9d-a442-b7e050608a20>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/public-service-company-colorado-2016-electric-resource-plan-2017-all-source-solicitation-30-day-report-public-version>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/1f8c0eab-9564-4064-bd8e-b98c135744e9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/estimating-renewable-energy-economic-potential-united-states-methodology-initial-results>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2c0c6750-e017-4590-b7aa-e1756bc7854b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL069965>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3c0fc226-ca97-4b80-aeb7-517cd5d1acff>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2015GL067613>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3d53beca-0617-4351-a7e9-f5af06a049dc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/energy-related-carbon-dioxide-emissions-at-state-level-2000-2014>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/437ba8f2-66cf-44f5-8bea-173c02458858>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/annual-energy-outlook-2018>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/561029d5-4494-43bf-98d2-96ad38606588>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2014GL059825>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/566f09cf-bf52-4392-90d5-3b96d6c42c93>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/jgrd.50652>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/60730cd1-dc90-4add-957b-2a32981cf398>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/solar-energy-development-six-southwestern-states-az-ca-co-nv-nm-ut-final-programmatic-environmental-impact-statement>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/607ad598-58b0-46e3-8371-bede11c93089>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2015EA000119>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/2009jhm1095.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/webpage/c7746707-90e0-48aa-8aef-6392cbe6896c>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate2903>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/us-energy-employment-report>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/92b75533-4ebe-4cad-af48-6789b4627f47>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/west-wide-climate-risk-assessment-hydroclimate-projections>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9d8a98fa-0338-486a-b902-cd02d43cae87>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016WR019638>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a42c4f5e-f16b-4196-af05-61f117e0491d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/state-energy-data-system-seds-1960-2015-table-p2-primary-energy-production-estimates-trillion-btu-2015>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ab3cc54d-c74f-4a6d-8746-efa051c2e97e>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_4_5>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-5>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/scenario/rcp_8_5>.