reference : Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage

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reftype Journal Article
Abstract The impacts of climate change on agriculture depend on local conditions and crops grown. For instance, warmer winter temperatures in a given area would reduce chill hours, potentially cutting yields for some crops but extending the growing season for others. Using a century of climate data and six decades of acreage data, we established quantitative economic relationships between the evolution of local climate and acreage of 12 important crops in Yolo County. We then used the historical trend in climate change to project future crop acreages in the county. Only marginal changes in acreage in 2050 were projected for tree and vine crops there, in part because chill hours, although lower, remained above critical values. Walnuts were the most vulnerable tree crop, and the projections indicated some cultivars might be marginal in years with particularly warm winters. Processing tomato acreage might increase, due to a longer growing season, and also alfalfa acreage, if water availability and other factors remain constant.
Author Lee, Hyunok; Sumner, Daniel A.
DOI 10.3733/ca.v070n01p9
ISSN 0008-0845
Issue 1
Journal California Agriculture
Pages 9-14
Publisher University of California Agriculture and Nature Resources
Title Modeling the effects of local climate change on crop acreage
Volume 70
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 23808
_uuid 0190c6b6-6e8c-4988-837a-b984e69b3dd9