reference : Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts

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/report/nca4/chapter/southwest/finding/key-message-25-7/reference/110b6896-b3e8-4af4-9c57-70cd5dcc49b0
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. These results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.
Author Paull, Sara H.; Horton, Daniel E.; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Kramer, Laura D.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Kilpatrick, A. Marm
DOI 10.1098/rspb.2016.2078
Issue 1848
Journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Title Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts
Volume 284
Year 2017
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 23690
_uuid 110b6896-b3e8-4af4-9c57-70cd5dcc49b0