uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,attrs.DOI,attrs.Date,attrs.ISSN,attrs.Issue,attrs.Journal,attrs.Pages,attrs.Title,"attrs.Type of Article",attrs.Volume,attrs.Year,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff,81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff,"Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century.","Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Pierce, David W.",10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3,"May 01",1432-0894,9-10,"Climate Dynamics",3853-3864,"Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US","journal article",50,2018,25968,81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3
/reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1,820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1,"Climate warming poses two major challenges for birds: exposure to higher temperatures and disruption of the synchrony between nesting and resource emergence. To cope, birds are expected to track temperature by moving to cooler areas and to track resource emergence by breeding earlier. We show that these two responses are intertwined. Earlier breeding can substitute for range shifts by reducing temperatures during critical breeding-season life-history events. We show that early-summer temperatures affect nesting success in North American birds and that Californian birds breed ∼1 wk earlier today than a century ago. Thus, without shifting geographically, birds now nest at similar temperatures as they did a century ago, which might reshape both the need and the opportunity for range shifts.Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5–12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.","Socolar, Jacob B.; Epanchin, Peter N.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Tingley, Morgan W.",10.1073/pnas.1705897114,,,49,"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America",12976-12981,"Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts",,114,2017,25983,820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1705897114
/reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1,8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1,"High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003–2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We quantified tree mortality from harvest using data from US Forest Service reports. In both cases, we used Monte Carlo analyses to track uncertainty associated with parameter error and temporal variability. Regional tree mortality from harvest, beetles, and fires (MORT H+B+F ) together averaged 45.8 ± 16.0 Tg AGC yr −1 (±95% confidence interval), indicating a mortality rate of 1.10 ± 0.38% yr −1 . Harvest accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F (∼50%), followed by beetles (∼32%), and fires (∼18%). Tree mortality from harvest was concentrated in Washington and Oregon, where harvest accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F in each state. Tree mortality from beetles occurred widely at low levels across the region, yet beetles had pronounced impacts in Colorado and Montana, where they accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F . Tree mortality from fires was highest in California, though fires accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F in Arizona and New Mexico (∼50%). Drought and human activities shaped regional variation in tree mortality, highlighting opportunities and challenges to managing GHG emissions from forests. Rising temperatures and greater risk of drought will likely increase tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during coming decades in this region. Thus, sustained monitoring and mapping of tree mortality is necessary to inform forest and GHG management.","Berner, Logan T.; Beverly E. Law; Arjan J. H. Meddens; Jeffrey A. Hicke",10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94,,1748-9326,6,"Environmental Research Letters",065005,"Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003–2012)",,12,2017,23664,8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1,"Journal Article",/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94
/reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358,826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358,,"TCCP,",,,,,,6,"Tribal Climate Change Profile. Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians: Climate Change and Environmental Management Programs",,,2013,23944,826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358,Report,/report/tribal-climate-change-profile-santa-ynez-band-chumash-indians-climate-change-environmental-management-programs
/reference/82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb,82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb,,"City of San Francisco,",,,,,,various,"Sea Level Rise Action Plan",,,2016,23959,82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb,Report,/report/sea-level-rise-action-plan
/reference/82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6,82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6,,"North, M. P.; Stephens, S. L.; Collins, B. M.; Agee, J. K.; Aplet, G.; Franklin, J. F.; Fulé, P. Z.",10.1126/science.aab2356,,,6254,Science,1280-1281,"Reform forest fire management",,349,2015,23837,82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.aab2356
/reference/83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742,83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742,"California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modern human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle–upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070–2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Niño related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005–2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.","Cayan, D.R.
Bromirski, P.D.
Hayhoe, K.
Tyree, M.
Dettinger, M.D.
Flick, R.E.",10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7,,0165-0009,"1 Supplement","Climatic Change",57-73,"Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast",,87,2008,323,83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7
/reference/8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4,8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4,,"California Energy Commission,",,,,,,,"California Electrical Energy Generation [web site]",,,2018,26404,8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4,"Web Page",/webpage/c7746707-90e0-48aa-8aef-6392cbe6896c
/reference/836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3,836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3,,"Smith, R. G.; Knight, R.; Chen, J.; Reeves, J. A.; Zebker, H. A.; Farr, T.; Liu, Z.",10.1002/2016WR019861,,1944-7973,3,"Water Resources Research",2133-2148,"Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California",,53,2017,23858,836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2016WR019861
/reference/83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be,83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be,,"Rising Voices,",,,,,,21,"Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Bringing Together Science and Indigenous Ways of Knowing to Create Positive Solutions (Rising Voices 2 Workshop Report)",,,2014,23924,83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be,Report,/report/adaptation-climate-change-variability-bringing-together-science-indigenous-ways-knowing-create-positive-solutions-rising-voices-2-workshop-report
/reference/83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b,83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b,,"McDonnell, William F.; Abbey, David E.; Nishino, Naomi; Lebowitz, Michael D.",10.1006/enrs.1998.3894,1999/02/01/,0013-9351,2,"Environmental Research",110-121,"Long-term ambient ozone concentration and the incidence of asthma in nonsmoking adults: The Ahsmog study",,80,1999,23821,83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1006/enrs.1998.3894
/reference/83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f,83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f,"Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.Aunque las respuestas bióticas al cambio climático contemporáneo son espacialmente generalizadas y frecuentemente reflejan sinergias entre el clima y otros disturbios ecológicos, la importancia relativa de factores climáticos frente al área de hábitat para el mantenimiento de especies sigue siendo poco conocida. Para subsanar esta deficiencia, realizamos muestreos de la pika Americana (Ochotona princeps) en más de 910 sitios en 3 regiones geográficas del oeste de Norteamérica durante 2014 y 2015, complementando muestreos realizados en tiempos recientes (1994–2013) e históricos (1898–1990). Comparamos las tasas de extirpación para dilucidar la importancia relativa de los factores climáticos con respeto al área del hábitat disponible de las pikas bajo un marco conceptual de áreas continentales frente a zonas aisladas. En cada región, encontramos amplia evidencia en la pérdida de área de distribución - extinciones locales, desapariciones de las zonas bajas, y encuentro sólo de evidencia de ocupación pasada. Estudios localmente exhaustivos sugieren la extirpación de O. princeps en 5 de las 9 localidades nuevas muestreadas de la Gran Cuenca Hidrográfica (Great Basin), y en 11 de las 29 localidades en el noreste de California. Aunque las pikas todavía se encontraban en fechas recientes como en 2011 en el Parque Nacional Zion y en el Monumento Nacional Cedar Breaks en Utah en 2012, O. princeps ahora parece extirpada de todas las localidades donde fue encontrada anteriormente en ambos parques. Regresiones logísticas múltiples para cada región basados en factores ambientales como la temperatura y los factores relacionados con el balance del agua (ambos estimados por el DAYMET) explicaron claramente el patrón de persistencia de la pika en localidades de la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero no en el noreste de California, en el área “continental” de la montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades. Por el contrario, el hábitat de talud no p edijo la persistencia de la pika en los sitios aislados en la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero lo predijo significativamente en el área continental (i.e., en las montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades). Estos resultados incrementan el conocimiento sobre la distribución histórica y la tendencia a largo plazo de la pika Americana. Este conocimiento también puede ayudar en la toma de decisiones sobre las prioridades en las acciones en conservación y manejo. El avance en conjunto en investigaciones de especies como O. princeps ha demostrado la heterogeneidad y la forma con que el clima actúa de diferente manera sobre la distribución de los mamíferos de montaña.","Beever, Erik A.; Perrine, John D.; Rickman, Tom; Flores, Mary; Clark, John P.; Waters, Cassie; Weber, Shana S.; Yardley, Braden; Thoma, David; Chesley-Preston, Tara; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Magnuson, Michael; Nordensten, Nancy; Nelson, Melissa; Collins, Gail H.",10.1093/jmammal/gyw128,,0022-2372,6,"Journal of Mammalogy",1495-1511,"Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region",,97,2016,23724,83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1093/jmammal/gyw128
/reference/83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740,83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740,,"Rockman, Marcy; Morgan, Marissa; Ziaja, Sonya; Hambrecht, George; Meadow, Alison",,,,,,,"Cultural Resources Climate Change Strategy",,,2016,22827,83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740,Report,/report/cultural-resources-climate-change-strategy
/reference/846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca,846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca,,"Mazer, Susan J.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Matthews, Elizabeth R.; Evenden, Angela",10.1890/ES14-00433.1,,2150-8925,6,Ecosphere,1-27,"Species-specific phenological responses to winter temperature and precipitation in a water-limited ecosystem",,6,2015,23685,846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca,"Journal Article",/article/10.1890/ES14-00433.1
/reference/852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308,852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308,"BackgroundExertional heat illness (EHI) affects military personnel, athletes and occupational groups such as agricultural workers, despite knowledge of preventive measures.AimsTo evaluate EHI diagnoses during US Army basic training and its associations with fitness and body fat on entering military service.MethodsFrom February 2005 to September 2006, US Army recruits at six different military entrance stations took a pre-accession fitness test, including a 5-min step test scored as pass or fail. Subsequent EHI incidence and incidence rate ratios were analysed with reference to subjects’ fitness (step test performance) and whether they met (weight qualified [WQ]) or exceeded body fat (EBF) standards.ResultsAmong the 8621 WQ and 834 EBF male subjects, there were 67 incidents of EHI within 180 days of entering military service. Among WQ subjects, step test failure was significantly associated with EHI (odds ratio [OR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 3.53). For those passing the step test, the risk of EHI was significantly higher in EBF than in WQ subjects (OR 3.98, 95% CI 2.17, 7.29). Expected ORs for the joint effects of step test failure and EBF classification under additive and multiplicative models were 4.98 and 7.96, respectively. There were too few women to evaluate their data in detail.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that fitness and body fat are independently associated with incident EHI, and the effect of both was substantially higher. Those with low fitness levels and/or obesity should be evaluated further before engaging in intense physical activity, especially in warmer months.","Bedno, S. A.; Urban, N.; Boivin, M. R.; Cowan, D. N.",10.1093/occmed/kqu062,,0962-7480,6,"Occupational Medicine",461-467,"Fitness, obesity and risk of heat illness among army trainees",,64,2014,23723,852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308,"Journal Article",/article/10.1093/occmed/kqu062
/reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce,85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce,,"Redsteer, M.; Hiza, Bemis; Chief, K.D.; Gautam, M.; Middleton, B.R.; Tsosie, R.",,,,,,385-404,"Unique challenges facing southwestern Tribes: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation",,,2013,18271,85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce,"Book Section",/book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836
/reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a,861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a,,"Bednaršek, N.; Feely, R. A.; Reum, J. C. P.; Peterson, B.; Menkel, J.; Alin, S. R.; Hales, B.",10.1098/rspb.2014.0123,,,1785,"Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",,"Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem",10.1098/rspb.2014.0123,281,2014,22171,861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1098/rspb.2014.0123
/reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45,8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45,,"Young, Kristina E.; Grover, Henry S.; Bowker, Matthew A.",10.1111/nph.13910,,,1,"New Phytologist",18-22,"Altering biocrusts for an altered climate",,210,2016,26407,8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/nph.13910
/reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36,868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36,,"Hutto, Sara V.; Kelley D. Higgason; Jessi M. Kershner; Whitney A. Reynier; Darrell S. Gregg ",,,,,,475,"Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean ",,,2015,23947,868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36,Report,/report/climate-change-vulnerability-assessment-north-central-california-coast-ocean
/reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab,86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab,,"Flessa, Karl; Eloise Kendy; Karen Schlatter",,,,,,78,"Minute 319: Colorado River Limitrophe and Delta Environmental Flows Monitoring. Interim Report",,,2016,23954,86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab,Report,/report/minute-319-colorado-river-limitrophe-delta-environmental-flows-monitoring-interim-report