uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,"attrs.Book Title",attrs.DOI,attrs.Editor,attrs.ISBN,attrs.Pages,"attrs.Place Published",attrs.Publisher,attrs.Title,attrs.Year,attrs.\.reference_type,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,"Societies are addressing increasingly complex governance challenges that necessitate collaboration between many organizations. Harnessing the emergent abilities of these collective efforts requires new administrative strategies and techniques, but if done well also provides promise for addressing important social challenges. In Maricopa County Arizona the Department of Public Health reports 632 confirmed heat-associated deaths from 2006 to 2013. In response, public health and other organizations coordinate across the County with a collection of public and private organizations and non-profit groups to provide services for heat relief as cooling centers during the summer. Here we show how participatory modeling can be used as a tool to enable this ad-hoc collaborative network to self-organize to provide more efficient service. The voluntary nature of the network imposes a structure on cooling service provision as the locations and open hours of centers are largely based on other ongoing operations. There are consequently both gaps and redundancies in spatial and temporal cooling center availability that exist when the network is examined from a system perspective. Over the last year, we engaged members of the heat relief community in central Arizona in a participatory modeling effort to help improve a simple prototype agent-based model that visualizes relevant components of the regional Heat Relief Network’s function. Through this process, the members developed systemic awareness of both the challenges and opportunities of coordination across the network. This effort helped network members begin to see cooling centers from a systems perspective, leverage their ability to see dynamic cooling center availability spatially and temporally and thus increase opportunities to align services along both dimensions. Our collaboration with the Heat Relief Network in central Arizona highlights participatory modeling as an innovative means for translating evidence to practice and facilitating knowledge dissemination, two important elements for successful applications on complexity governance.","Uebelherr, Joshua; Hondula, David M.; Johnston, Erik W.","Innovation Networks for Regional Development: Concepts, Case Studies, and Agent-Based Models",10.1007/978-3-319-43940-2_9,"Vermeulen, Ben; Paier, Manfred",978-3-319-43940-2,215-236,Cham,"Springer International Publishing","Using participatory modeling to enable local innovation through complexity governance",2017,7,25988,beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,"Book Section",/book/ee637891-77c2-4593-8bf9-39f1f0fb564b
/reference/bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,,"Cooley, Heather; Michael Cohen; Rapichan Phurisamban; Guillaume Gruère",,10.1787/5jlr3bx95v48-en,,,29,Paris,,"Water Risk Hotspots for Agriculture: The Case of the Southwest United States",2016,10,23956,bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,Report,/report/water-risk-hotspots-agriculture-case-southwest-united-states
/reference/bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,,"Lewitus, Alan J.; Horner, Rita A.; Caron, David A.; Garcia-Mendoza, Ernesto; Hickey, Barbara M.; Hunter, Matthew; Huppert, Daniel D.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Langlois, Gregg W.; Largier, John L.; Lessard, Evelyn J.; RaLonde, Raymond; Rensel, J.E. Jack; Strutton, Peter G.; Trainer, Vera L.; Tweddle, Jacqueline F.",,10.1016/j.hal.2012.06.009,,,133-159,,,"Harmful algal blooms along the North American west coast region: History, trends, causes, and impacts",2012,0,17114,bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.hal.2012.06.009
/reference/bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,,"Cheung, William W. L.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Okey, Thomas A.; Pauly, Daniel",,10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003,,,19-31,,,"Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas",2015,,23741,bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003
/reference/c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,,"Gautam, Mahesh R.
Chief, Karletta
Smith, William J., Jr.",,10.1007/s10584-013-0737-0,,,585-599,,,"Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe",2013,0,3909,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0737-0
/reference/c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,"Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December–February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on large-scale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments.","Neelin, J. David; Baird Langenbrunner; Joyce E. Meyerson; Alex Hall; Neil Berg",,10.1175/jcli-d-12-00514.1,,,6238-6256,,,"California winter precipitation change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble",2013,,23835,c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00514.1
/reference/c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,"Although declining oxygen concentration has been reported for the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) of the tropical oceans and the North Pacific Ocean, consistent with model predictions of the effects of global warming, its ecological impacts are poorly understood. We report the apparent impact of declining oxygen on midwater fishes within the OMZ of the southern California Current (CC). Principal component analysis of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton time series from 1951 to 2008 indicates that the dominant temporal pattern (principal component 1 [PC1]) represents the marked decline of the region’s mesopelagic fishes during periods of reduced oxygen. Of the 27 taxa with loadings > 0.5 on PC1, 24 were mesopelagic. PC1 was strongly correlated with intermediate-water oxygen concentrations (r = 0.75, p < 0.05), which were about 20% lower in the past decade and the 1950s than in the period from 1970 to 1995. The abundance of mesopelagic fishes represented by PC1 was reduced, on average, by 63% between periods of high and low oxygen concentrations. We hypothesize that the underlying mechanism is the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary layer during periods of reduced oxygen, which renders the mesopelagic fauna more vulnerable to visually orienting predators. The mesopelagic fish fauna provides a vital trophodynamic link between the marine plankton and many higher predators. The decline of deepwater fish populations has profound implications for commercial fisheries, marine food webs and marine conservation: climate models predict a 20 to 40% decline in global deepwater oxygen concentrations over the coming century.","Koslow, J. Anthony; Goericke, Ralf; Lara-Lopez, Ana; Watson, William",,10.3354/meps09270,,,207-218,,,"Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current",2011,,23801,c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,"Journal Article",/article/10.3354/meps09270
/reference/c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,"Both obesity and strenuous outdoor work are known risk factors for heat-related illness (HRI). These risk factors may be compounded by more and longer periods of extreme heat in the southeastern U.S. To quantify occupational risk and investigate the possible predictive value of a GIS-based tool, a weighted occupation-based metabolic equivalent (MET) index was created. The correlation between current MET-weighted employment rates or obesity rates and 2012 HRI report rates in Alabama were then determined. With the current dataset, results indicate occupational and obesity rates may explain some of the geographical variation seen in HRI report rates, although results are not statistically significant with this limited dataset. Mapping occupational and physiological risk factors with HRI rates may be useful for environmental and occupational health professionals to identify “hotspots” that may require special attention.","Crider, Kyle G.; Maples, Elizabeth H.; Gohlke, Julia M.",,,,,16-22,,,"Incorporating occupational risk in heat stress vulnerability mapping",2014,,23751,c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,"Journal Article",/article/pmid-25185323
/reference/c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,,"Choudhary, Ekta; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish",,,,,1-10,,,"Heat stress illness hospitalizations—Environmental public health tracking program, 20 States, 2001-2010.",2014,,23742,c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,"Journal Article",/article/heat-stress-illness-hospitalizationsenvironmental-public-health-tracking-program-20-states-2001-2010
/reference/c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,,"Elias, Emile; Caiti Steele; Kris Havstad; Kerri Steenwerth; Jeanne Chambers; Helena Deswood; Amber Kerr; Albert Rango; Mark Schwartz; Peter Stine; Rachel Steele",,,,,76,"Washington, DC",,"Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies",2015,10,23955,c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,Report,/report/southwest-regional-climate-hub-california-subsidiary-hub-assessment-climate-change-vulnerability-adaptation-mitigation-strategies
/reference/c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,,"Berman, Jesse D.; Ebisu, Keita; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.",,10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5,,,e17-e25,,,"Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: A retrospective study	",2017,,21858,c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5
/reference/c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,,"Stephens, S. L.; Agee, J. K.; Fulé, P. Z.; North, M. P.; Romme, W. H.; Swetnam, T. W.; Turner, M. G.",,10.1126/science.1240294,,,41-42,,,"Managing forests and fire in changing climates",2013,0,20988,c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.1240294
/reference/c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,,IPCC,,,,,1132,"Cambridge, UK and New York, NY","Cambridge University Press","Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",2014,10,17681,c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,Report,/report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta
/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,,"IPCC,",,,"Solomon, S.
D. Qin
M. Manning
 Z. Chen
M. Marquis
K.B. Averyt
M. Tignor
H.L. Miller","978 0521 88009-1",,"Cambridge, U.K, New York, NY, USA","Cambridge University Press","Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",2007,9,263,c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,Book,/report/ipcc-ar4-wg1
/reference/c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,,"Vogel, Jason; Smith, Joel; O'Grady, Megan; Flemming, Paul; Heyn, Kavita; Adams, Alison; Pierson, Don; Brooks, Keely; Behar, David",,,,,,"Las Vegas, NV","Water Utility Climate Alliance","Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessments",2015,9,26393,c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,Book,/book/actionable-science-practice-co-producing-climate-change-information-water-utility-vulnerability-assessments
/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.","Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.",,10.1073/pnas.1615922114,,,E2285-E2292,,,"Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity",2017,,21170,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114
/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.","Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C.",,10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7,,,,,,"Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change",2016,,23531,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7
/reference/c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,,"West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois",,10.1038/nclimate2009,,,885-889,,"Nature Publishing Group","Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health",2013,,21695,c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2009
/reference/c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,,"State of California,",,,,,4,"Sacramento, CA","State of California, Executive Department","Executive Order B-40-17 (Terminating the January 17, 2014 Drought State of Emergency in all California Counties except Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Tuolumne)",2017,,23917,c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,"Government Document",/report/executive-order-b-40-17
/reference/c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,,"GNEB,",,,,,90,"Washington, DC",,"Climate Change and Resilient Communities Along the U.S.-Mexico Border: The Role of Federal Agencies",2016,10,26158,c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,Report,/report/climate-change-resilient-communities-along-us-mexico-border-role-federal-agencies
/reference/ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,,"Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Larkin, N.K.; Kolden, C.A.; Stocks, B.",,10.1071/WF15083,,,,,,"Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States",2015,0,19295,ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1071/WF15083
/reference/ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,"Summary 1 Tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are significant drivers of plant growth and chemical composition. We hypothesized that exposure to elevated concentrations of O3 and CO2, singly and in combination, would modify the chemical composition of Trifolium and thus alter its digestibility and nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 2 We tested our hypothesis by collecting samples of Red Clover (Trifolium pratense) and White Clover (Trifolium repens) from the understoreys of Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides)–Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum) communities that had been exposed since 1998 to ambient air, elevated CO2, elevated O3 or elevated CO2 + O3 at the Aspen Free-Air CO2 and O3 Enrichment (FACE) site located near Rhinelander, WI, USA. Foliage samples were analysed for (1) concentrations of N, total cell wall constituents, lignin and soluble phenolics; and (2) in vitro dry-matter digestibility (IVDMD) and in vitro cell-wall digestibility (IVCWD) using batch cultures of ruminal micro-organisms. 3 Significant air-treatment effects were observed for lignin concentration, IVDMD and IVCWD, and between Red and White Clover for all dependent variables. No air treatment × clover species interactions were detected. 4 Exposure to elevated O3 resulted in increased concentration of lignin and decreased IVDMD and IVCWD compared with exposure to ambient air, and the response was similar regardless of whether plants had been coexposed to elevated CO2. Exposure to elevated CO2 alone did not affect chemical composition or in vitro digestibility, nor did it ameliorate the negative effect of elevated O3 on these determinants of nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 5 In contrast to recent reports of a protective effect of elevated CO2 against growth reduction in plants under O3 stress, our results indicate that elevated CO2 would not be expected to ameliorate the negative impact of elevated O3 on nutritive quality of Trifolium under projected future global climate scenarios.","Muntifering, R. B.; Chappelka, A. H.; Lin, J. C.; Karnosky, D. F.; Somers, G. L.",,10.1111/j.1365-2435.2006.01093.x,,,269-275,,,"Chemical composition and digestibility of Trifolium exposed to elevated ozone and carbon dioxide in a free-air (FACE) fumigation system",2006,,25974,ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2006.01093.x
/reference/cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,"BACKGROUND: Extremes of temperature are associated with short-term increases in daily mortality. OBJECTIVES: We set out to identify subpopulations and mortality causes with increased susceptibility to temperature extremes. METHODS: We conducted a case-only analysis using daily mortality and hourly weather data from 50 U.S. cities for the period 1989–2000, covering a total of 7,789,655 deaths. We used distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in each city to define extremely hot days (≥ 99th percentile) and extremely cold days (≤ 1st percentile), respectively. For each (hypothesized) effect modifier, a city-specific logistic regression model was fitted and an overall estimate calculated in a subsequent meta-analysis. RESULTS: Older subjects [odds ratio (OR) = 1.020; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.005–1.034], diabetics (OR = 1.035; 95% CI, 1.010–1.062), blacks (OR = 1.037; 95% CI, 1.016–1.059), and those dying outside a hospital (OR = 1.066; 95% CI, 1.036–1.098) were more susceptible to extreme heat, with some differences observed between those dying from a cardiovascular disease and other decedents. Cardiovascular deaths (OR = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.036–1.070), and especially cardiac arrest deaths (OR =1.137; 95% CI, 1.051–1.230), showed a greater relative increase on extremely cold days, whereas the increase in heat-related mortality was marginally higher for those with coexisting atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.059; 95% CI, 0.996–1.125). CONCLUSIONS: In this study we identified several subpopulations and mortality causes particularly susceptible to temperature extremes. This knowledge may contribute to establishing health programs that would better protect the vulnerable.","Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Zanobetti, Antonella; Cavanagh, David Paul; Schwartz, Joel",,10.1289/ehp.9074,,,1331-1336,,"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","Extreme temperatures and mortality: Assessing effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a multi-city case-only analysis",2006,,23824,cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/ehp.9074
/reference/ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,,"Crooks, James Lewis; Wayne E. Cascio; Madelyn S. Percy; Jeanette Reyes; Lucas M. Neas; Elizabeth D. Hilborn",,10.1289/EHP216,,,1735-1743,,,"The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993–2005",2016,,23754,ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/EHP216
/reference/cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,"Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006–2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year’s seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6–12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity.","Schinasi, Leah H.; Hamra, Ghassan B.",,10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y,,,892-900,,,"A time series analysis of associations between daily temperature and crime events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2017,,25981,cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y