uri,href,identifier,attrs.Abstract,attrs.Author,"attrs.Book Title",attrs.DOI,attrs.Editor,attrs.ISBN,attrs.Pages,"attrs.Place Published",attrs.Publisher,attrs.Title,attrs.Year,attrs.\.reference_type,attrs._record_number,attrs._uuid,attrs.reftype,child_publication
/reference/beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,"Societies are addressing increasingly complex governance challenges that necessitate collaboration between many organizations. Harnessing the emergent abilities of these collective efforts requires new administrative strategies and techniques, but if done well also provides promise for addressing important social challenges. In Maricopa County Arizona the Department of Public Health reports 632 confirmed heat-associated deaths from 2006 to 2013. In response, public health and other organizations coordinate across the County with a collection of public and private organizations and non-profit groups to provide services for heat relief as cooling centers during the summer. Here we show how participatory modeling can be used as a tool to enable this ad-hoc collaborative network to self-organize to provide more efficient service. The voluntary nature of the network imposes a structure on cooling service provision as the locations and open hours of centers are largely based on other ongoing operations. There are consequently both gaps and redundancies in spatial and temporal cooling center availability that exist when the network is examined from a system perspective. Over the last year, we engaged members of the heat relief community in central Arizona in a participatory modeling effort to help improve a simple prototype agent-based model that visualizes relevant components of the regional Heat Relief Network’s function. Through this process, the members developed systemic awareness of both the challenges and opportunities of coordination across the network. This effort helped network members begin to see cooling centers from a systems perspective, leverage their ability to see dynamic cooling center availability spatially and temporally and thus increase opportunities to align services along both dimensions. Our collaboration with the Heat Relief Network in central Arizona highlights participatory modeling as an innovative means for translating evidence to practice and facilitating knowledge dissemination, two important elements for successful applications on complexity governance.","Uebelherr, Joshua; Hondula, David M.; Johnston, Erik W.","Innovation Networks for Regional Development: Concepts, Case Studies, and Agent-Based Models",10.1007/978-3-319-43940-2_9,"Vermeulen, Ben; Paier, Manfred",978-3-319-43940-2,215-236,Cham,"Springer International Publishing","Using participatory modeling to enable local innovation through complexity governance",2017,7,25988,beced1bd-55b2-4716-9154-cdccc23e3114,"Book Section",/book/ee637891-77c2-4593-8bf9-39f1f0fb564b
/reference/bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,,"Cooley, Heather; Michael Cohen; Rapichan Phurisamban; Guillaume Gruère",,10.1787/5jlr3bx95v48-en,,,29,Paris,,"Water Risk Hotspots for Agriculture: The Case of the Southwest United States",2016,10,23956,bf7e284b-6333-477d-883f-23e002742a6c,Report,/report/water-risk-hotspots-agriculture-case-southwest-united-states
/reference/bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,,"Lewitus, Alan J.; Horner, Rita A.; Caron, David A.; Garcia-Mendoza, Ernesto; Hickey, Barbara M.; Hunter, Matthew; Huppert, Daniel D.; Kudela, Raphael M.; Langlois, Gregg W.; Largier, John L.; Lessard, Evelyn J.; RaLonde, Raymond; Rensel, J.E. Jack; Strutton, Peter G.; Trainer, Vera L.; Tweddle, Jacqueline F.",,10.1016/j.hal.2012.06.009,,,133-159,,,"Harmful algal blooms along the North American west coast region: History, trends, causes, and impacts",2012,0,17114,bf9e1e12-177e-4d6a-bae5-c9ed434d64b2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.hal.2012.06.009
/reference/bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,,"Cheung, William W. L.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Okey, Thomas A.; Pauly, Daniel",,10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003,,,19-31,,,"Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas",2015,,23741,bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003
/reference/c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,,"Gautam, Mahesh R.
Chief, Karletta
Smith, William J., Jr.",,10.1007/s10584-013-0737-0,,,585-599,,,"Climate change in arid lands and Native American socioeconomic vulnerability: The case of the Pyramid Lake Paiute Tribe",2013,0,3909,c1162288-6379-4b60-b573-d0f8482d8fa0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0737-0
/reference/c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,"Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December–February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on large-scale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments.","Neelin, J. David; Baird Langenbrunner; Joyce E. Meyerson; Alex Hall; Neil Berg",,10.1175/jcli-d-12-00514.1,,,6238-6256,,,"California winter precipitation change under global warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble",2013,,23835,c137667f-ab0a-49fb-a324-1f5e2b9ad3e5,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00514.1
/reference/c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,"Although declining oxygen concentration has been reported for the oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) of the tropical oceans and the North Pacific Ocean, consistent with model predictions of the effects of global warming, its ecological impacts are poorly understood. We report the apparent impact of declining oxygen on midwater fishes within the OMZ of the southern California Current (CC). Principal component analysis of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) ichthyoplankton time series from 1951 to 2008 indicates that the dominant temporal pattern (principal component 1 [PC1]) represents the marked decline of the region’s mesopelagic fishes during periods of reduced oxygen. Of the 27 taxa with loadings > 0.5 on PC1, 24 were mesopelagic. PC1 was strongly correlated with intermediate-water oxygen concentrations (r = 0.75, p < 0.05), which were about 20% lower in the past decade and the 1950s than in the period from 1970 to 1995. The abundance of mesopelagic fishes represented by PC1 was reduced, on average, by 63% between periods of high and low oxygen concentrations. We hypothesize that the underlying mechanism is the shoaling of the hypoxic boundary layer during periods of reduced oxygen, which renders the mesopelagic fauna more vulnerable to visually orienting predators. The mesopelagic fish fauna provides a vital trophodynamic link between the marine plankton and many higher predators. The decline of deepwater fish populations has profound implications for commercial fisheries, marine food webs and marine conservation: climate models predict a 20 to 40% decline in global deepwater oxygen concentrations over the coming century.","Koslow, J. Anthony; Goericke, Ralf; Lara-Lopez, Ana; Watson, William",,10.3354/meps09270,,,207-218,,,"Impact of declining intermediate-water oxygen on deepwater fishes in the California Current",2011,,23801,c142629b-17fd-48b5-9e56-c57bca0523c2,"Journal Article",/article/10.3354/meps09270
/reference/c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,"Both obesity and strenuous outdoor work are known risk factors for heat-related illness (HRI). These risk factors may be compounded by more and longer periods of extreme heat in the southeastern U.S. To quantify occupational risk and investigate the possible predictive value of a GIS-based tool, a weighted occupation-based metabolic equivalent (MET) index was created. The correlation between current MET-weighted employment rates or obesity rates and 2012 HRI report rates in Alabama were then determined. With the current dataset, results indicate occupational and obesity rates may explain some of the geographical variation seen in HRI report rates, although results are not statistically significant with this limited dataset. Mapping occupational and physiological risk factors with HRI rates may be useful for environmental and occupational health professionals to identify “hotspots” that may require special attention.","Crider, Kyle G.; Maples, Elizabeth H.; Gohlke, Julia M.",,,,,16-22,,,"Incorporating occupational risk in heat stress vulnerability mapping",2014,,23751,c170c3ae-9595-4908-a5a8-18062e153fcf,"Journal Article",/article/pmid-25185323
/reference/c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,,"Choudhary, Ekta; Vaidyanathan, Ambarish",,,,,1-10,,,"Heat stress illness hospitalizations—Environmental public health tracking program, 20 States, 2001-2010.",2014,,23742,c2022b30-10b5-40f8-b14b-82c43209dd3d,"Journal Article",/article/heat-stress-illness-hospitalizationsenvironmental-public-health-tracking-program-20-states-2001-2010
/reference/c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,,"Elias, Emile; Caiti Steele; Kris Havstad; Kerri Steenwerth; Jeanne Chambers; Helena Deswood; Amber Kerr; Albert Rango; Mark Schwartz; Peter Stine; Rachel Steele",,,,,76,"Washington, DC",,"Southwest Regional Climate Hub and California Subsidiary Hub Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies",2015,10,23955,c29be9d3-c558-41ec-979c-f8d0c0b6f0e6,Report,/report/southwest-regional-climate-hub-california-subsidiary-hub-assessment-climate-change-vulnerability-adaptation-mitigation-strategies
/reference/c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,,"Berman, Jesse D.; Ebisu, Keita; Peng, Roger D.; Dominici, Francesca; Bell, Michelle L.",,10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5,,,e17-e25,,,"Drought and the risk of hospital admissions and mortality in older adults in western USA from 2000 to 2013: A retrospective study	",2017,,21858,c2e222fc-c5e0-4e34-8f28-ab1fad575053,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30002-5
/reference/c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,,"Stephens, S. L.; Agee, J. K.; Fulé, P. Z.; North, M. P.; Romme, W. H.; Swetnam, T. W.; Turner, M. G.",,10.1126/science.1240294,,,41-42,,,"Managing forests and fire in changing climates",2013,0,20988,c387ad96-7868-4751-89f7-d0d62911b346,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/science.1240294
/reference/c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,,IPCC,,,,,1132,"Cambridge, UK and New York, NY","Cambridge University Press","Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",2014,10,17681,c390e13f-8517-40a9-a236-ac4dede3a7a0,Report,/report/ipcc-ar5-wg2-parta
/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,,"IPCC,",,,"Solomon, S.
D. Qin
M. Manning
 Z. Chen
M. Marquis
K.B. Averyt
M. Tignor
H.L. Miller","978 0521 88009-1",,"Cambridge, U.K, New York, NY, USA","Cambridge University Press","Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",2007,9,263,c54b9473-cdc3-4f22-97a8-4df5253f9682,Book,/report/ipcc-ar4-wg1
/reference/c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,,"Vogel, Jason; Smith, Joel; O'Grady, Megan; Flemming, Paul; Heyn, Kavita; Adams, Alison; Pierson, Don; Brooks, Keely; Behar, David",,,,,,"Las Vegas, NV","Water Utility Climate Alliance","Actionable Science in Practice: Co-producing Climate Change Information for Water Utility Vulnerability Assessments",2015,9,26393,c54bb72b-a4af-41f4-9f0a-1464f047610d,Book,/book/actionable-science-practice-co-producing-climate-change-information-water-utility-vulnerability-assessments
/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.","Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.",,10.1073/pnas.1615922114,,,E2285-E2292,,,"Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity",2017,,21170,c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1615922114
/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"The Southwestern US is a five-state region that has supported animal agriculture since the late 16th Century when European settlers crossed the Rio Grande into present day west Texas and southern New Mexico with herds of cattle, sheep, goats and horses. For the past 400 years the rangeland livestock industry, in its many forms and manifestations, has developed management strategies and conservation practices that impart resilience to the climatic extremes, especially prolonged droughts, that are common and extensive across this region. Livestock production from rangelands in the southwest (SW) is adapted to low rainfall and high ambient temperatures, but will have to continue to adapt management strategies, such as reduced stocking rates, proper grazing management practices, employing animal genetics suited to arid environments with less herbaceous production, erosion control conservation practices, and alternative forage supplies, in an increasingly arid and variable climatic environment. Even though the aging demographics of western ranchers could be a deterrent to implementing various adaptations, there are examples of creative management coalitions to cope with climatic change that are emerging in the SW that can serve as instructive examples. More importantly, there are additional opportunities for incorporation of transformative practices and technologies that can sustain animal agriculture in the SW in a warmer environment. Animal agriculture in the SW is inherently resilient, and has the capacity to adapt and transform as needed to the climatic changes that are now occurring and will continue to occur across this region. However, producers and land managers will need to thoroughly understand the vulnerabilities and sensitivities that face them as well as the ecological characteristics of their specific landscapes in order to cope with the emerging climatic changes across the SW region.","Havstad, K. M.; Brown, J. R.; Estell, R.; Elias, E.; Rango, A.; Steele, C.",,10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7,,,,,,"Vulnerabilities of southwestern U.S. rangeland-based animal agriculture to climate change",2016,,23531,c779538d-b066-4e38-8527-ff3f7552f26e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-016-1834-7
/reference/c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,,"West, J. Jason; Smith, Steven J.; Silva, Raquel A.; Naik, Vaishali; Zhang, Yuqiang; Adelman, Zachariah; Fry, Meridith M.; Anenberg, Susan; Horowitz, Larry W.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois",,10.1038/nclimate2009,,,885-889,,"Nature Publishing Group","Co-benefits of mitigating global greenhouse gas emissions for future air quality and human health",2013,,21695,c826f3cd-fcd9-46b1-b781-f33ff27d0680,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2009
/reference/c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,,"State of California,",,,,,4,"Sacramento, CA","State of California, Executive Department","Executive Order B-40-17 (Terminating the January 17, 2014 Drought State of Emergency in all California Counties except Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Tuolumne)",2017,,23917,c8a744d8-11d1-420b-ab72-f175efb028d9,"Government Document",/report/executive-order-b-40-17
/reference/c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,,"GNEB,",,,,,90,"Washington, DC",,"Climate Change and Resilient Communities Along the U.S.-Mexico Border: The Role of Federal Agencies",2016,10,26158,c8ae5ca2-1afd-4b7c-972b-0bf99c24d12e,Report,/report/climate-change-resilient-communities-along-us-mexico-border-role-federal-agencies
/reference/ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,,"Barbero, R.; Abatzoglou, J.T.; Larkin, N.K.; Kolden, C.A.; Stocks, B.",,10.1071/WF15083,,,,,,"Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States",2015,0,19295,ca5c4b38-9aa8-4edc-9aea-42f1625cc45b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1071/WF15083
/reference/ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,"Summary 1 Tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon dioxide (CO2) are significant drivers of plant growth and chemical composition. We hypothesized that exposure to elevated concentrations of O3 and CO2, singly and in combination, would modify the chemical composition of Trifolium and thus alter its digestibility and nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 2 We tested our hypothesis by collecting samples of Red Clover (Trifolium pratense) and White Clover (Trifolium repens) from the understoreys of Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides)–Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum) communities that had been exposed since 1998 to ambient air, elevated CO2, elevated O3 or elevated CO2 + O3 at the Aspen Free-Air CO2 and O3 Enrichment (FACE) site located near Rhinelander, WI, USA. Foliage samples were analysed for (1) concentrations of N, total cell wall constituents, lignin and soluble phenolics; and (2) in vitro dry-matter digestibility (IVDMD) and in vitro cell-wall digestibility (IVCWD) using batch cultures of ruminal micro-organisms. 3 Significant air-treatment effects were observed for lignin concentration, IVDMD and IVCWD, and between Red and White Clover for all dependent variables. No air treatment × clover species interactions were detected. 4 Exposure to elevated O3 resulted in increased concentration of lignin and decreased IVDMD and IVCWD compared with exposure to ambient air, and the response was similar regardless of whether plants had been coexposed to elevated CO2. Exposure to elevated CO2 alone did not affect chemical composition or in vitro digestibility, nor did it ameliorate the negative effect of elevated O3 on these determinants of nutritive quality for ruminant herbivores. 5 In contrast to recent reports of a protective effect of elevated CO2 against growth reduction in plants under O3 stress, our results indicate that elevated CO2 would not be expected to ameliorate the negative impact of elevated O3 on nutritive quality of Trifolium under projected future global climate scenarios.","Muntifering, R. B.; Chappelka, A. H.; Lin, J. C.; Karnosky, D. F.; Somers, G. L.",,10.1111/j.1365-2435.2006.01093.x,,,269-275,,,"Chemical composition and digestibility of Trifolium exposed to elevated ozone and carbon dioxide in a free-air (FACE) fumigation system",2006,,25974,ca9cdd27-f128-4a98-83bd-d8b40b2429cf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2006.01093.x
/reference/cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,"BACKGROUND: Extremes of temperature are associated with short-term increases in daily mortality. OBJECTIVES: We set out to identify subpopulations and mortality causes with increased susceptibility to temperature extremes. METHODS: We conducted a case-only analysis using daily mortality and hourly weather data from 50 U.S. cities for the period 1989–2000, covering a total of 7,789,655 deaths. We used distributions of daily minimum and maximum temperature in each city to define extremely hot days (≥ 99th percentile) and extremely cold days (≤ 1st percentile), respectively. For each (hypothesized) effect modifier, a city-specific logistic regression model was fitted and an overall estimate calculated in a subsequent meta-analysis. RESULTS: Older subjects [odds ratio (OR) = 1.020; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.005–1.034], diabetics (OR = 1.035; 95% CI, 1.010–1.062), blacks (OR = 1.037; 95% CI, 1.016–1.059), and those dying outside a hospital (OR = 1.066; 95% CI, 1.036–1.098) were more susceptible to extreme heat, with some differences observed between those dying from a cardiovascular disease and other decedents. Cardiovascular deaths (OR = 1.053; 95% CI, 1.036–1.070), and especially cardiac arrest deaths (OR =1.137; 95% CI, 1.051–1.230), showed a greater relative increase on extremely cold days, whereas the increase in heat-related mortality was marginally higher for those with coexisting atrial fibrillation (OR = 1.059; 95% CI, 0.996–1.125). CONCLUSIONS: In this study we identified several subpopulations and mortality causes particularly susceptible to temperature extremes. This knowledge may contribute to establishing health programs that would better protect the vulnerable.","Medina-Ramón, Mercedes; Zanobetti, Antonella; Cavanagh, David Paul; Schwartz, Joel",,10.1289/ehp.9074,,,1331-1336,,"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences","Extreme temperatures and mortality: Assessing effect modification by personal characteristics and specific cause of death in a multi-city case-only analysis",2006,,23824,cc49dc7d-d481-4103-a681-a17fe17d35c2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/ehp.9074
/reference/ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,,"Crooks, James Lewis; Wayne E. Cascio; Madelyn S. Percy; Jeanette Reyes; Lucas M. Neas; Elizabeth D. Hilborn",,10.1289/EHP216,,,1735-1743,,,"The association between dust storms and daily non-accidental mortality in the United States, 1993–2005",2016,,23754,ccc19864-47c9-4e36-af43-fbc650359f44,"Journal Article",/article/10.1289/EHP216
/reference/cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,"Urban crime may be an important but overlooked public health impact of rising ambient temperatures. We conducted a time series analysis of associations between temperature and crimes in Philadelphia, PA, for years 2006–2015. We obtained daily crime data from the Philadelphia Police Department, and hourly temperature and dew point data from the National Centers for Environmental Information. We calculated the mean daily heat index and daily deviations from each year’s seasonal mean heat index value. We used generalized additive models with a quasi-Poisson distribution, adjusted for day of the week, public holiday, and long-term trends and seasonality, to estimate relative rates (RR) and 95% confidence intervals. We found that the strongest associations were with violent crime and disorderly conduct. For example, relative to the median of the distribution of mean daily heat index values, the rate of violent crimes was 9% (95% CI 6–12%) higher when the mean daily heat index was at the 99th percentile of the distribution. There was a positive, linear relationship between deviations of the daily mean heat index from the seasonal mean and rates of violent crime and disorderly conduct, especially in cold months. Overall, these analyses suggest that disorderly conduct and violent crimes are highest when temperatures are comfortable, especially during cold months. This work provides important information regarding the temporal patterns of crime activity.","Schinasi, Leah H.; Hamra, Ghassan B.",,10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y,,,892-900,,,"A time series analysis of associations between daily temperature and crime events in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania",2017,,25981,cd84eaa2-f9fd-449f-ba51-39ded685b0cb,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s11524-017-0181-y
/reference/cea75900-8720-40d7-9195-93bb86f46c4b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cea75900-8720-40d7-9195-93bb86f46c4b,cea75900-8720-40d7-9195-93bb86f46c4b,,"Sprigg, William A.; Nickovic, Slobodan; Galgiani, John N.; Pejanovic, Goran; Petkovic, Slavko; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Vukovic, Ana; Dacic, Milan; DiBiase, Scott; Prasad, Anup; El-Askary, Hesham",,10.1016/j.aeolia.2014.03.001,,,53-73,,,"Regional dust storm modeling for health services: The case of valley fever",2014,,23861,cea75900-8720-40d7-9195-93bb86f46c4b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.aeolia.2014.03.001
/reference/cf615c2d-2a18-48a7-b28e-a4d0c18f8d19,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cf615c2d-2a18-48a7-b28e-a4d0c18f8d19,cf615c2d-2a18-48a7-b28e-a4d0c18f8d19,,"Elias, Emile; Rango, Al; Smith, Ryann; Maxwell, Connie; Steele, Caiti; Havstad, Kris",,10.1111/j.1936-704X.2016.03218.x,,,46-61,,,"Climate change, agriculture and water resources in the southwestern United States",2016,,23761,cf615c2d-2a18-48a7-b28e-a4d0c18f8d19,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1936-704X.2016.03218.x
/reference/cf677518-2ff0-4462-8d41-e48e8655ba18,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cf677518-2ff0-4462-8d41-e48e8655ba18,cf677518-2ff0-4462-8d41-e48e8655ba18,,"Ramajo, Laura; Pérez-León, Elia; Hendriks, Iris E.; Marbà, Núria; Krause-Jensen, Dorte; Sejr, Mikael K.; Blicher, Martin E.; Lagos, Nelson A.; Olsen, Ylva S.; Duarte, Carlos M.",,10.1038/srep19374,,,19374,,"Nature Publishing Group","Food supply confers calcifiers resistance to ocean acidification",2016,,22282,cf677518-2ff0-4462-8d41-e48e8655ba18,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/srep19374
/reference/cf6f7e45-0307-4587-a2ae-6e6625d8d486,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cf6f7e45-0307-4587-a2ae-6e6625d8d486,cf6f7e45-0307-4587-a2ae-6e6625d8d486,,"Mikkelson, Kristin M.; Dickenson, Eric R. V.; Maxwell, Reed M.; McCray, John E.; Sharp, Jonathan O.",,10.1038/nclimate1724,,,218-222,,"Nature Publishing Group","Water-quality impacts from climate-induced forest die-off",2012,,23827,cf6f7e45-0307-4587-a2ae-6e6625d8d486,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate1724
/reference/cf96b502-57a2-4b76-bffc-750e1bf668d6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/cf96b502-57a2-4b76-bffc-750e1bf668d6,cf96b502-57a2-4b76-bffc-750e1bf668d6,,"Ward, Frank A.",,10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.024,,,114-127,,,"Economic impacts on irrigated agriculture of water conservation programs in drought",2014,,23880,cf96b502-57a2-4b76-bffc-750e1bf668d6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.10.024
/reference/d04b2c86-5ca0-42e0-9792-2f319c15cd7e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d04b2c86-5ca0-42e0-9792-2f319c15cd7e,d04b2c86-5ca0-42e0-9792-2f319c15cd7e,,"Long, Matthew C.; Deutsch, Curtis; Ito, Taka",,10.1002/2015GB005310,,,381-397,,,"Finding forced trends in oceanic oxygen",2016,0,20030,d04b2c86-5ca0-42e0-9792-2f319c15cd7e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2015GB005310
/reference/d06fadc5-a5e3-463c-85d0-f78c07c6ade9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d06fadc5-a5e3-463c-85d0-f78c07c6ade9,d06fadc5-a5e3-463c-85d0-f78c07c6ade9,"Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.","Ault, Toby R.; Mankin, Justin S.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.",,10.1126/sciadv.1600873,,,"e1600873 ",,,"Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest",2016,,23659,d06fadc5-a5e3-463c-85d0-f78c07c6ade9,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/sciadv.1600873
/reference/d13ddcaa-9080-4fab-9514-c45365ed3740,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d13ddcaa-9080-4fab-9514-c45365ed3740,d13ddcaa-9080-4fab-9514-c45365ed3740,,"Payne, Ashley E.; Magnusdottir, Gudrun",,10.1002/2015JD023586,,,"11,173-11,190",,,"An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5",2015,0,19753,d13ddcaa-9080-4fab-9514-c45365ed3740,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2015JD023586
/reference/d3a3ca44-1e49-41ee-9063-dc1be22dec3c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d3a3ca44-1e49-41ee-9063-dc1be22dec3c,d3a3ca44-1e49-41ee-9063-dc1be22dec3c,,"Stone, Brian Jr.; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Habeeb, Dana; DeLucia, Anthony; Trail, Marcus; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead",,10.1371/journal.pone.0100852,,,e100852,,,"Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities",2014,0,19132,d3a3ca44-1e49-41ee-9063-dc1be22dec3c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0100852
/reference/d3dc6208-1d6e-4652-9639-3cf034c9670f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d3dc6208-1d6e-4652-9639-3cf034c9670f,d3dc6208-1d6e-4652-9639-3cf034c9670f,"The climate warming effects of accelerated urbanization along with projected global climate change raise an urgent need for sustainable mitigation and adaptation strategies to cool urban climates. Our modeling results show that historical urbanization in the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas has increased daytime urban air temperature by 1.3 °C, in part due to a weakening of the onshore sea breeze circulation. We find that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can meaningfully offset this daytime warming, reducing temperatures by 0.9 °C relative to a case without cool roofs. Residential cool roofs were responsible for 67% of the cooling. Nocturnal temperature increases of 3.1 °C from urbanization were larger than daytime warming, while nocturnal temperature reductions from cool roofs of 0.5 °C were weaker than corresponding daytime reductions. We further show that cool roof deployment could partially counter the local impacts of global climate change in the Los Angeles metropolitan area. Assuming a scenario in which there are dramatic decreases in greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century (RCP2.6), mid- and end-of-century temperature increases from global change relative to current climate are similarly reduced by cool roofs from 1.4 °C to 0.6 °C. Assuming a scenario with continued emissions increases throughout the century (RCP8.5), mid-century warming is significantly reduced by cool roofs from 2.0 °C to 1.0 °C. The end-century warming, however, is significantly offset only in small localized areas containing mostly industrial/commercial buildings where cool roofs with the highest albedo are adopted. We conclude that metropolis-wide adoption of cool roofs can play an important role in mitigating the urban heat island effect, and offsetting near-term local warming from global climate change. Global-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way of avoiding long-term warming, however. We further suggest that both climate mitigation and adaptation can be pursued simultaneously using ‘cool photovoltaics’.","Vahmani, P.; F. Sun; A. Hall; G. Ban-Weiss",,10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124027,,,124027,,,"Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California",2016,,23701,d3dc6208-1d6e-4652-9639-3cf034c9670f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124027
/reference/d4ab8d07-bc4d-4dc5-b056-2bb84cad1dcf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d4ab8d07-bc4d-4dc5-b056-2bb84cad1dcf,d4ab8d07-bc4d-4dc5-b056-2bb84cad1dcf,,"Erbs, Martin; Manderscheid, Remy; Jansen, Gisela; Seddig, Sylvia; Pacholski, Andreas; Weigel, Hans-Joachim",,10.1016/j.agee.2009.11.009,,,59-68,,,"Effects of free-air CO2 enrichment and nitrogen supply on grain quality parameters and elemental composition of wheat and barley grown in a crop rotation",2010,,25965,d4ab8d07-bc4d-4dc5-b056-2bb84cad1dcf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.agee.2009.11.009
/reference/d51156cc-0034-4afc-b2b7-1ad99efde458,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d51156cc-0034-4afc-b2b7-1ad99efde458,d51156cc-0034-4afc-b2b7-1ad99efde458,,"Brown, M.E.; J.M. Antle; P. Backlund; E.R. Carr; W.E. Easterling; M.K. Walsh; C. Ammann; W. Attavanich; C.B. Barrett; M.F. Bellemare; V. Dancheck; C. Funk; K. Grace; J.S.I. Ingram; H. Jiang; H. Maletta; T. Mata; A. Murray; M. Ngugi; D. Ojima; B. O’Neill; C. Tebaldi",,10.7930/J0862DC7,,,146,"Washington, DC",,"Climate Change, Global Food Security, and the U.S. Food System",2015,10,23655,d51156cc-0034-4afc-b2b7-1ad99efde458,Report,/report/usda-climate-change-global-food-security-us-food-system-2015
/reference/d54f9bb4-ee19-404e-bb21-19c98f4842aa,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d54f9bb4-ee19-404e-bb21-19c98f4842aa,d54f9bb4-ee19-404e-bb21-19c98f4842aa,,"Chung, Esther K.; Siegel, Benjamin S.; Garg, Arvin; Conroy, Kathleen; Gross, Rachel S.; Long, Dayna A.; Lewis, Gena; Osman, Cynthia J.; Jo Messito, Mary; Wade, Roy; Shonna Yin, H.; Cox, Joanne; Fierman, Arthur H.",,10.1016/j.cppeds.2016.02.004,,,135-153,,,"Screening for social determinants of health among children and families living in poverty: A guide for clinicians",2016,,23743,d54f9bb4-ee19-404e-bb21-19c98f4842aa,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.cppeds.2016.02.004
/reference/d6207568-7594-4593-9bc9-1056a517f56e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d6207568-7594-4593-9bc9-1056a517f56e,d6207568-7594-4593-9bc9-1056a517f56e,,"Judge, Jenna; Newkirk, Sarah; Leo, Kelly; Heady, Walter; Hayden, Maya; Veloz, Sam; Cheng, Tiffany; Battalio, Bob; Ursell, Tara; Small, Mary",,,,,38,"Arlington, VA",,"Case Studies of Natural Shoreline Infrastructure in Coastal California: A Component of Identification of Natural Infrastructure Options for Adapting to Sea Level Rise (California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment)",2017,10,26370,d6207568-7594-4593-9bc9-1056a517f56e,Report,/report/case-studies-natural-shoreline-infrastructure-coastal-california-component-identification-natural-infrastructure-options-adapting-sea-level-rise-californias-fourth-climate-change-assessment
/reference/d630a483-2475-4fbb-b942-e5068ac04971,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d630a483-2475-4fbb-b942-e5068ac04971,d630a483-2475-4fbb-b942-e5068ac04971,"Drought monitoring and drought planning are complex endeavors. Measures of precipitation or streamflow provide little context for understanding how social and environmental systems impacted by drought are responding. Here the authors report on collaborative work with the Hopi Tribe—a Native American community in the U.S. Southwest—to develop a drought information system that is responsive to local needs. A strategy is presented for developing a system that is based on an assessment of how drought is experienced by Hopi citizens and resource managers, that can incorporate local observations of drought impacts as well as conventional indicators, and that brings together local expertise with conventional science-based observations. The system described here is meant to harness as much available information as possible to inform tribal resource managers, political leaders, and citizens about drought conditions and to also engage these local drought stakeholders in observing, thinking about, and helping to guide planning for drought.","Ferguson, Daniel B.; Anna Masayesva; Alison M. Meadow; Michael A. Crimmins",,10.1175/wcas-d-15-0060.1,,,345-359,,,"Rain gauges to range conditions: Collaborative development of a drought information system to support local decision-making",2016,,25966,d630a483-2475-4fbb-b942-e5068ac04971,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/wcas-d-15-0060.1
/reference/d66b7bc2-05ee-4b9a-ace3-d73e20d2750f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d66b7bc2-05ee-4b9a-ace3-d73e20d2750f,d66b7bc2-05ee-4b9a-ace3-d73e20d2750f,,"Margolis, Helene G.","Global Climate Change and Public Health",10.1007/978-1-4614-8417-2_6,"Pinkerton, Kent E.; Rom, William N.",978-1-4614-8416-5,85-120,"New York, NY","Humana Press","Heat waves and rising temperatures: Human health impacts and the determinants of vulnerability",2014,7,23817,d66b7bc2-05ee-4b9a-ace3-d73e20d2750f,"Book Section",/book/0da35c81-e322-4cf3-839b-74663afd9cac
/reference/d721e218-0d4a-47ef-81a1-a148a38bca7c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d721e218-0d4a-47ef-81a1-a148a38bca7c,d721e218-0d4a-47ef-81a1-a148a38bca7c,"Long-term declines in oxygen concentrations are evident throughout much of the ocean interior and are particularly acute in midwater oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). These regions are defined by extremely low oxygen concentrations (<20–45 μmol kg−1), cover wide expanses of the ocean, and are associated with productive oceanic and coastal regions. OMZs have expanded over the past 50 years, and this expansion is predicted to continue as the climate warms worldwide. Shoaling of the upper boundaries of the OMZs accompanies OMZ expansion, and decreased oxygen at shallower depths can affect all marine organisms through multiple direct and indirect mechanisms. Effects include altered microbial processes that produce and consume key nutrients and gases, changes in predator-prey dynamics, and shifts in the abundance and accessibility of commercially fished species. Although many species will be negatively affected by these effects, others may expand their range or exploit new niches. OMZ shoaling is thus likely to have major and far-reaching consequences.","Gilly, William F.; J. Michael Beman; Steven Y. Litvin; Bruce H. Robison",,10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100849,,,393-420,,,"Oceanographic and biological effects of shoaling of the oxygen minimum zone",2013,,23768,d721e218-0d4a-47ef-81a1-a148a38bca7c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1146/annurev-marine-120710-100849
/reference/d7564231-5587-4333-abe1-3caef085fd98,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d7564231-5587-4333-abe1-3caef085fd98,d7564231-5587-4333-abe1-3caef085fd98,,"Hongoh, V.; Berrang-Ford, L.; Scott, M. E.; Lindsay, L. R.",,10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.05.015,,,53-62,,,"Expanding geographical distribution of the mosquito, Culex pipiens, in Canada under climate change",2012,,23781,d7564231-5587-4333-abe1-3caef085fd98,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.05.015
/reference/d7ed19d6-e5ac-4b44-b686-0a8a16fc431b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d7ed19d6-e5ac-4b44-b686-0a8a16fc431b,d7ed19d6-e5ac-4b44-b686-0a8a16fc431b,"The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y−1. Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y−1 (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y−1 from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean–Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.","Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P.; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo",,10.1073/pnas.1616007114,,,5946-5951,,,"Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise",2017,,22415,d7ed19d6-e5ac-4b44-b686-0a8a16fc431b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1616007114
/reference/d85480cf-5a9d-4389-9af4-38bf32473e7a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d85480cf-5a9d-4389-9af4-38bf32473e7a,d85480cf-5a9d-4389-9af4-38bf32473e7a,,"Goldtooth, Tom B. K.",,10.1353/wic.2010.0006,,,11-28,,,"The State of Indigenous America Series: Earth Mother, piñons, and apple pie",2010,,23770,d85480cf-5a9d-4389-9af4-38bf32473e7a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1353/wic.2010.0006
/reference/d87facce-04fc-4296-b7ce-54a8df65d503,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d87facce-04fc-4296-b7ce-54a8df65d503,d87facce-04fc-4296-b7ce-54a8df65d503,,"Norgaard, Kari Marie; Kirsten Vinyeta; Leaf Hillman; Bill Tripp; Frank Lake    ",,,,,205,"Happy Camp, CA",,"Karuk Tribe Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Assessing Vulnerabilities from the Increased Frequency of High Severity Fire",2016,10,23929,d87facce-04fc-4296-b7ce-54a8df65d503,Report,/report/karuk-tribe-climate-vulnerability-assessment-assessing-vulnerabilities-increased-frequency-high-severity-fire
/reference/d8bd2def-be9b-47e3-84de-199bcd26c31d,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d8bd2def-be9b-47e3-84de-199bcd26c31d,d8bd2def-be9b-47e3-84de-199bcd26c31d,,"Brown, H.E.
A. Comrie
D. Drechsler
C.M. Barker
R. Basu
T. Brown
A. Gershunov
A.M. Kilpatrick
W.K. Reisen
D.M. Ruddell","Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment",,"Garfin, G.
Jardine, A.
Merideth, R.
Black, Mary
LeRoy, Sarah.",9781610914468,312-339,"Washington, D.C.","Island Press","Ch. 15: Human health",2013,7,828,d8bd2def-be9b-47e3-84de-199bcd26c31d,"Book Section",/book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836
/reference/d8c02480-fd9d-40a0-96e2-8432fc460329,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d8c02480-fd9d-40a0-96e2-8432fc460329,d8c02480-fd9d-40a0-96e2-8432fc460329,,"Wilhelmi, Olga; De Sherbinin, Alex; Hayden, Mary","Ecologies and Politics of Health",,"Brian King; Kelley A. Crews",978-0-415-59066-2,219-238,"Oxon, UK and New York NY",Routledge,"Exposure to heat stress in urban environments",2013,7,23899,d8c02480-fd9d-40a0-96e2-8432fc460329,"Book Section",/book/1e32608a-2d0a-4501-83ef-ba1a7c7cdbf1
/reference/d8fa9745-f20f-4681-8eec-586cc6b8d369,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d8fa9745-f20f-4681-8eec-586cc6b8d369,d8fa9745-f20f-4681-8eec-586cc6b8d369,"Climate change will affect the abundance and seasonality of West Nile virus (WNV) vectors, altering the risk of virus transmission to humans. Using downscaled general circulation model output, we calculate a WNV vector's response to climate change across the southern United States using process-based modeling. In the eastern United States, Culex quinquefasciatus response to projected climate change displays a latitudinal and elevational gradient. Projected summer population depressions as a result of increased immature mortality and habitat drying are most severe in the south and almost absent further north; extended spring and fall survival is ubiquitous. Much of California also exhibits a bimodal pattern. Projected onset of mosquito season is delayed in the southwestern United States because of extremely dry and hot spring and summers; however, increased temperature and late summer and fall rains extend the mosquito season. These results are unique in being a broad-scale calculation of the projected impacts of climate change on a WNV vector. The results show that, despite projected widespread future warming, the future seasonal response of C. quinquefasciatus populations across the southern United States will not be homogeneous, and will depend on specific combinations of local and regional conditions.","Morin, C. W.; Comrie, A. C.",,10.1073/pnas.1307135110,,,15620-15625,,,"Regional and seasonal response of a West Nile virus vector to climate change",2013,0,4871,d8fa9745-f20f-4681-8eec-586cc6b8d369,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1307135110
/reference/d9d9811c-006a-40fc-baa7-1b79f123593c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d9d9811c-006a-40fc-baa7-1b79f123593c,d9d9811c-006a-40fc-baa7-1b79f123593c,,"SNWA,",,,,,56,"Las Vegas, NV",,"2017 Water Resources Plan",2017,10,26387,d9d9811c-006a-40fc-baa7-1b79f123593c,Report,/report/2017-water-resources-plan
/reference/da714e9f-808c-4aae-8d24-aef041988322,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da714e9f-808c-4aae-8d24-aef041988322,da714e9f-808c-4aae-8d24-aef041988322,"In recent years increasing attention has been focused on understanding the different resources that can support decision makers at all levels in responding to climate variability and change. This article focuses on the role that access to information and other potential constraints may play in the context of water decision making across three U.S. regions (the Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the Carolinas). The authors report on the degree to which climate-related needs or constraints pertinent to water resources are regionally specific. They also find that stakeholder-identified constraints or needs extended beyond the need for data/information to enabling factors such as governance arrangements and how to improve collaboration and communication. As climate information networks expand and emphasis is placed on encouraging adaptation more broadly, these constraints have implications not only for how information dissemination efforts are organized but for how those efforts need to be informed by the larger regional context in a resource-limited and fragmented landscape.","Dilling, Lisa; Kirsten Lackstrom; Benjamin Haywood; Kirstin Dow; Maria Carmen Lemos; John Berggren; Scott Kalafatis",,10.1175/wcas-d-14-00001.1,,,5-17,,,"What stakeholder needs tell us about enabling adaptive capacity: The intersection of context and information provision across regions in the United States",2015,,26359,da714e9f-808c-4aae-8d24-aef041988322,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/wcas-d-14-00001.1
/reference/da90ef66-3e0e-4b0c-a7ea-c0503b993cb2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/da90ef66-3e0e-4b0c-a7ea-c0503b993cb2,da90ef66-3e0e-4b0c-a7ea-c0503b993cb2,,"Bucci, Monica; Marques, Sara Silvério; Oh, Debora; Harris, Nadine Burke",,10.1016/j.yapd.2016.04.002,,,403-428,,Elsevier,"Toxic stress in children and adolescents",2016,,23734,da90ef66-3e0e-4b0c-a7ea-c0503b993cb2,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.yapd.2016.04.002
/reference/dca58e36-d2c9-43af-b3fd-67338f710de9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dca58e36-d2c9-43af-b3fd-67338f710de9,dca58e36-d2c9-43af-b3fd-67338f710de9,"California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Projected temperature anomalies from a global climate model are used to drive a combined model of watershed hydrology and estuarine dynamics. By 2090, a projected temperature increase of 2.1°C results in a loss of about half of the average April snowpack storage, with greatest losses in the northern headwaters. Consequently, spring runoff is reduced by 5.6 km3 (∼20% of historical annual runoff), with associated increases in winter flood peaks. The smaller spring flows yield spring/summer salinity increases of up to 9 psu, with larger increases in wet years.","Knowles, Noah; Cayan, Daniel R.",,10.1029/2001GL014339,,,1891,,,"Potential effects of global warming on the Sacramento/San Joaquin watershed and the San Francisco estuary",2002,,26371,dca58e36-d2c9-43af-b3fd-67338f710de9,"Journal Article",/article/10.1029/2001GL014339
/reference/dd11662f-f1a1-4a3b-a34f-295e5364e5ed,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dd11662f-f1a1-4a3b-a34f-295e5364e5ed,dd11662f-f1a1-4a3b-a34f-295e5364e5ed,,"Henson, Stephanie A.; Beaulieu, Claudie; Ilyina, Tatiana; John, Jasmin G.; Long, Matthew; Séférian, Roland; Tjiputra, Jerry; Sarmiento, Jorge L.",,10.1038/ncomms14682,,,14682,,,"Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems",2017,,22449,dd11662f-f1a1-4a3b-a34f-295e5364e5ed,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/ncomms14682
/reference/dd9585ac-dc38-4e88-9899-edebb82d51f6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dd9585ac-dc38-4e88-9899-edebb82d51f6,dd9585ac-dc38-4e88-9899-edebb82d51f6,,"Crouch, Jake; Heim, Richard R.; Hughes, P. E.; Fenimore, Chris",,10.1175/2013BAMSStateoftheClimate.1,,,S149-S152,,,"Regional climates: United States [in ""State of the Climate in 2012""]",2013,,26354,dd9585ac-dc38-4e88-9899-edebb82d51f6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/2013BAMSStateoftheClimate.1
/reference/dde395ae-d68c-4fdd-b3c8-d1ccbee85102,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dde395ae-d68c-4fdd-b3c8-d1ccbee85102,dde395ae-d68c-4fdd-b3c8-d1ccbee85102,,"Slangen, Aimee B. A.; Church, John A.; Agosta, Cecile; Fettweis, Xavier; Marzeion, Ben; Richter, Kristin",,10.1038/nclimate2991,,,701-705,,,"Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970",2016,0,19982,dde395ae-d68c-4fdd-b3c8-d1ccbee85102,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/nclimate2991
/reference/de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,"Increased forest fire activity across the western continental United States (US) in recent decades has likely been enabled by a number of factors, including the legacy of fire suppression and human settlement, natural climate variability, and human-caused climate change. We use modeled climate projections to estimate the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to observed increases in eight fuel aridity metrics and forest fire area across the western United States. Anthropogenic increases in temperature and vapor pressure deficit significantly enhanced fuel aridity across western US forests over the past several decades and, during 2000–2015, contributed to 75% more forested area experiencing high (>1 σ) fire-season fuel aridity and an average of nine additional days per year of high fire potential. Anthropogenic climate change accounted for ∼55% of observed increases in fuel aridity from 1979 to 2015 across western US forests, highlighting both anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability as important contributors to increased wildfire potential in recent decades. We estimate that human-caused climate change contributed to an additional 4.2 million ha of forest fire area during 1984–2015, nearly doubling the forest fire area expected in its absence. Natural climate variability will continue to alternate between modulating and compounding anthropogenic increases in fuel aridity, but anthropogenic climate change has emerged as a driver of increased forest fire activity and should continue to do so while fuels are not limiting.","Abatzoglou, John T.; Williams, A. Park",,10.1073/pnas.1607171113,,,11770-11775,,,"Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests",2016,0,20416,de4a77df-03ba-4319-a13f-7fdefbb353a5,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1607171113
/reference/debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,,"Voggesser, Garrit
Lynn, Kathy
Daigle, John
Lake, Frank K.
Ranco, Darren",,10.1007/s10584-013-0733-4,,,615-626,,,"Cultural impacts to tribes from climate change influences on forests",2013,0,3852,debdf209-4050-4706-965c-09cff7ec353b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0733-4
/reference/df25e033-b388-4aab-b7a4-00d6a9ef3e7e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/df25e033-b388-4aab-b7a4-00d6a9ef3e7e,df25e033-b388-4aab-b7a4-00d6a9ef3e7e,,"Klos, P. Zion; Link, Timothy E.; Abatzoglou, John T.",,10.1002/2014GL060500,,,4560-4568,,,"Extent of the rain–snow transition zone in the western U.S. under historic and projected climate",2014,0,20539,df25e033-b388-4aab-b7a4-00d6a9ef3e7e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2014GL060500
/reference/e02079e4-6160-4552-8493-ba80eeeeff8c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e02079e4-6160-4552-8493-ba80eeeeff8c,e02079e4-6160-4552-8493-ba80eeeeff8c,,"Sherson, Lauren R.; Van Horn, David J.; Gomez-Velez, Jesus D.; Crossey, Laura J.; Dahm, Clifford N.",,10.1002/hyp.10426,,,3193-3207,,,"Nutrient dynamics in an alpine headwater stream: Use of continuous water quality sensors to examine responses to wildfire and precipitation events",2015,,23855,e02079e4-6160-4552-8493-ba80eeeeff8c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/hyp.10426
/reference/e028e561-0d0d-4ebd-acc0-5aa92fc73750,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e028e561-0d0d-4ebd-acc0-5aa92fc73750,e028e561-0d0d-4ebd-acc0-5aa92fc73750,,"Stewart, Joseph A. E.; Perrine, John D.; Nichols, Lyle B.; Thorne, James H.; Millar, Constance I.; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Massing, Cody P.; Wright, David H.",,10.1111/jbi.12466,,,880-890,,,"Revisiting the past to foretell the future: Summer temperature and habitat area predict pika extirpations in California",2015,,23865,e028e561-0d0d-4ebd-acc0-5aa92fc73750,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/jbi.12466
/reference/e0d237d0-bc2d-4538-9eb0-4732237cae82,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e0d237d0-bc2d-4538-9eb0-4732237cae82,e0d237d0-bc2d-4538-9eb0-4732237cae82,,"Writer, Jeffrey H.; Hohner, Amanda; Oropeza, Jill; Schmidt, Amanda; Cawley, Kaelin M.; Rosario-Ortiz, Fernando L.",,10.5942/jawwa.2014.106.0055,,,E189-E199,,,"Water treatment implications after the High Park Wildfire, Colorado",2014,,23889,e0d237d0-bc2d-4538-9eb0-4732237cae82,"Journal Article",/article/10.5942/jawwa.2014.106.0055
/reference/e126059c-67f3-4522-8381-ae2499296312,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e126059c-67f3-4522-8381-ae2499296312,e126059c-67f3-4522-8381-ae2499296312,"The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satellite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.","Asner, Gregory P.; Brodrick, Philip G.; Anderson, Christopher B.; Vaughn, Nicholas; Knapp, David E.; Martin, Roberta E.",,10.1073/pnas.1523397113,,,E249-E255,,,"Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought",2016,0,19775,e126059c-67f3-4522-8381-ae2499296312,"Journal Article",/article/10.1073/pnas.1523397113
/reference/e1dd379b-04d7-447d-ac40-27ed82995e4c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e1dd379b-04d7-447d-ac40-27ed82995e4c,e1dd379b-04d7-447d-ac40-27ed82995e4c,,"Largier, John; Brian Cheng; Kelley Higgason",,,,,121,"Silver Spring, MD",,"Climate Change Impacts: Gulf of the Farallones and Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuaries",2011,10,23938,e1dd379b-04d7-447d-ac40-27ed82995e4c,Report,/report/climate-change-impacts-gulf-farallones-cordell-bank-national-marine-sanctuaries
/reference/e22493ce-7924-4036-90f4-9c0e69ddfcfd,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e22493ce-7924-4036-90f4-9c0e69ddfcfd,e22493ce-7924-4036-90f4-9c0e69ddfcfd,,"Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Samuelsen, Scott",,10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.131,,,295-305,,,"Quantifying climate change impacts on hydropower generation and implications on electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and operation",2016,,23869,e22493ce-7924-4036-90f4-9c0e69ddfcfd,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.energy.2016.05.131
/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a,,,,,"Karl, T.R.
J.T. Melillo
T.C. Peterson ",978-0-521-14407-0,,"New York, NY","Cambridge University Press","Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States",2009,9,769,e251f590-177e-4ba6-8ed1-6f68b5e54c8a,"Edited Book",/report/nca2
/reference/e2ad8754-f271-4960-b198-51edd21e2e04,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e2ad8754-f271-4960-b198-51edd21e2e04,e2ad8754-f271-4960-b198-51edd21e2e04,,"Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J.A.; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue",,10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02598.x,,,1083-1095,,,"Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region",2012,,14640,e2ad8754-f271-4960-b198-51edd21e2e04,"Journal Article",/article/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02598.x
/reference/e2cbf775-6f83-4a51-8042-010716f7d47e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e2cbf775-6f83-4a51-8042-010716f7d47e,e2cbf775-6f83-4a51-8042-010716f7d47e,"Climate change is likely to affect the generation of energy from California’s high-elevation hydropower systems. To investigate these impacts, this study formulates a linear programming model of an 11-reservoir hydroelectric system operated by the Sacramento Municipal Utility District in the Upper American River basin. Four sets of hydrologic scenarios are developed using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model combined with climatic output from two general circulation models under two greenhouse-gas emissions scenarios. Power generation and revenues fall under two of the four climate change scenarios, as a consequence of drier hydrologic conditions. Energy generation is primarily limited by annual volume of streamflow, and is affected more than revenues, reflecting the ability of the system to store water when energy prices are low for use when prices are high (July through September). Power generation and revenues increase for two of the scenarios, which predict wetter hydrologic conditions. In this case, power generation increases more than revenues indicating that the system is using most of its available capacity under current hydrologic conditions. Hydroelectric systems located in basins with hydrograph centroids occuring close to summer months (July through September) are likely to be affected by the changes in hydrologic timing associated with climate change (e.g., earlier snowmelts and streamflows) if the systems lack sufficient storage capacity. High Sierra hydroelectric systems with sufficiently large storage capacity should not be affected by climate-induced changes in hydrologic timing.","Vicuna, S.; Leonardson, R.; Hanemann, M. W.; Dale, L. L.; Dracup, J. A.",,10.1007/s10584-007-9365-x,,,123-137,,,"Climate change impacts on high elevation hydropower generation in California’s Sierra Nevada: A case study in the Upper American River",2008,,26397,e2cbf775-6f83-4a51-8042-010716f7d47e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1007/s10584-007-9365-x
/reference/e353701d-b2bf-4ddd-af78-6bced072e963,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e353701d-b2bf-4ddd-af78-6bced072e963,e353701d-b2bf-4ddd-af78-6bced072e963,,"Millar, C. I.
Westfall, R. D.
Delany, D. L.
King, J. C.
Graumlich, L. J.",,10.1657/1523-0430(2004)036[0181:roscit]2.0.co;2,,,181-200,,,"Response of subalpine conifers in the Sierra Nevada, California, USA, to 20th-century warming and decadal climate variability",2004,0,2029,e353701d-b2bf-4ddd-af78-6bced072e963,"Journal Article",/article/10.1657/1523-0430(2004)036%5B0181:roscit%5D2.0.co;2
/reference/e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f,e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f,"Mountain snowpack stores a significant quantity of water in the western US, accumulating during the wet season and melting during the dry summers and supplying much of the water used for irrigated agriculture, and municipal and industrial uses. Updating our earlier work published in 2005, we find that with 14 additional years of data, over 90% of snow monitoring sites with long records across the western US now show declines, of which 33% are significant (vs. 5% expected by chance) and 2% are significant and positive (vs. 5% expected by chance). Declining trends are observed across all months, states, and climates, but are largest in spring, in the Pacific states, and in locations with mild winter climate. We corroborate and extend these observations using a gridded hydrology model, which also allows a robust estimate of total western snowpack and its decline. We find a large increase in the fraction of locations that posted decreasing trends, and averaged across the western US, the decline in average April 1 snow water equivalent since mid-century is roughly 15–30% or 25–50 km3, comparable in volume to the West’s largest man-made reservoir, Lake Mead.","Mote, Philip W.; Li, Sihan; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Xiao, Mu; Engel, Ruth",,10.1038/s41612-018-0012-1,,,2,,,"Dramatic declines in snowpack in the western US",2018,,25165,e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/s41612-018-0012-1
/reference/e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5,e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5,"The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance.|Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate ani significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases.","Stewart, I.T.
Cayan, D.R.
Dettinger, M.D.",,10.1175/JCLI3321.1,,,1136-1155,,,"Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America",2005,0,2957,e4a5a03e-0138-4ebb-98ad-6fb28ec56be5,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/JCLI3321.1
/reference/e4c07020-0c97-4a6c-ab4a-1859aaebd5ab,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e4c07020-0c97-4a6c-ab4a-1859aaebd5ab,e4c07020-0c97-4a6c-ab4a-1859aaebd5ab,,"Luber, George
McGeehin, Michael",,10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021,,,429-435,,,"Climate change and extreme heat events",2008,0,4293,e4c07020-0c97-4a6c-ab4a-1859aaebd5ab,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021
/reference/e523f9c0-56f9-44ff-b2d9-7debec2a19d0,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e523f9c0-56f9-44ff-b2d9-7debec2a19d0,e523f9c0-56f9-44ff-b2d9-7debec2a19d0,,"Hirshon, Jon Mark; Alson, Roy L.; Blunk, David; Brosnan, Douglas P.; Epstein, Stephen K.; Gardner, Angela F.; Lum, Donald L.; Moskovitz, Joshua B.; Richardson, Lynne D.; Stankus, Jennifer L.; Kivela, Paul D.; Wilkerson, Dean; Price, Craig; Bromley, Marilyn; Calaway, Nancy; Geist, Marjorie; Gore, Laura; Singh, Cynthia; Wheeler, Gordon",,10.1016/j.annemergmed.2013.11.024,,,100-243,,Elsevier,"America's emergency care environment, a state-by-state report card",2014,,23847,e523f9c0-56f9-44ff-b2d9-7debec2a19d0,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.annemergmed.2013.11.024
/reference/e56d8268-7bc7-4d40-a36f-21bfbf54a7cf,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e56d8268-7bc7-4d40-a36f-21bfbf54a7cf,e56d8268-7bc7-4d40-a36f-21bfbf54a7cf,"Climate projections for the southwestern US suggest a warmer, drier future and have the potential to impact forest carbon (C) sequestration and post-fire C recovery. Restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes initially decreases total ecosystem carbon (TEC), but can stabilize the remaining C by moderating wildfire behavior. Previous research has demonstrated that fire maintained forests can store more C over time than fire suppressed forests in the presence of wildfire. However, because the climate future is uncertain, I sought to determine the efficacy of forest management to moderate fire behavior and its effect on forest C dynamics under current and projected climate. I used the LANDIS-II model to simulate carbon dynamics under early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century climate projections for a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) dominated landscape in northern Arizona. I ran 100-year simulations with two different treatments (control, thin and burn) and a 1 in 50 chance of wildfire occurring. I found that control TEC had a consistent decline throughout the simulation period, regardless of climate. Thin and burn TEC increased following treatment implementation and showed more differentiation than the control in response to climate, with late-century climate having the lowest TEC. Treatment efficacy, as measured by mean fire severity, was not impacted by climate. Fire effects were evident in the cumulative net ecosystem exchange (NEE) for the different treatments. Over the simulation period, 32.8–48.9% of the control landscape was either C neutral or a C source to the atmosphere and greater than 90% of the thin and burn landscape was a moderate C sink. These results suggest that in southwestern ponderosa pine, restoring forest structure and surface fire regimes provides a reasonable hedge against the uncertainty of future climate change for maintaining the forest C sink.","Hurteau, Matthew D.",,10.1371/journal.pone.0169275,,,e0169275,,"Public Library of Science","Quantifying the carbon balance of forest restoration and wildfire under projected climate in the fire-prone southwestern US",2017,,23678,e56d8268-7bc7-4d40-a36f-21bfbf54a7cf,"Journal Article",/article/10.1371/journal.pone.0169275
/reference/e6404db9-fef8-42ba-95c8-3a7c5b7d8d05,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e6404db9-fef8-42ba-95c8-3a7c5b7d8d05,e6404db9-fef8-42ba-95c8-3a7c5b7d8d05,,"Mawdsley, Jonathan; Lamb, Rachel",,,,,49,"Washington, DC",,"Climate change vulnerability assessment for priority wildlife species",2013,10,26377,e6404db9-fef8-42ba-95c8-3a7c5b7d8d05,Report,/report/climate-change-vulnerability-assessment-priority-wildlife-species
/reference/e6928875-a32d-445c-90c0-e97bce50364c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e6928875-a32d-445c-90c0-e97bce50364c,e6928875-a32d-445c-90c0-e97bce50364c,,"Nicholas, Kimberly A.; Matthews, Mark A.; Lobell, David B.; Willits, Neil H.; Field, Christopher B.",,10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.010,,,1556-1567,,,"Effect of vineyard-scale climate variability on Pinot noir phenolic composition",2011,,25975,e6928875-a32d-445c-90c0-e97bce50364c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.06.010
/reference/e7386ded-fc42-4907-b607-4ccc458dd638,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e7386ded-fc42-4907-b607-4ccc458dd638,e7386ded-fc42-4907-b607-4ccc458dd638,,"Nania, Julie; Cozzetto, Karen; Gillet, Nicole; Duren, Sabre; Tapp, Anne Mariah; Eitner, Michael; Baldwin, Beth",,,,,204,"Boulder, CO",,"Considerations for climate change and variability adaptation on the Navajo Nation",2014,10,24985,e7386ded-fc42-4907-b607-4ccc458dd638,Report,/report/considerations-climate-change-variability-adaptation-on-navajo-nation
/reference/e7604efd-b24b-43f7-93b9-5046de36a18a,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e7604efd-b24b-43f7-93b9-5046de36a18a,e7604efd-b24b-43f7-93b9-5046de36a18a,"Valley fever is endemic to the southwestern United States. Humans contract this fungal disease by inhaling spores of Coccidioides spp. Changes in the environment can influence the abundance and dispersal of Coccidioides spp., causing fluctuations in valley fever incidence. We combined county‐level case records from state health agencies to create a regional valley fever database for the southwestern United States, including Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. We used this data set to explore how environmental factors influenced the spatial pattern and temporal dynamics of valley fever incidence during 2000–2015. We compiled climate and environmental geospatial data sets from multiple sources to compare with valley fever incidence. These variables included air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, surface dust concentration, normalized difference vegetation index, and cropland area. We found that valley fever incidence was greater in areas with warmer air temperatures and drier soils. The mean annual cycle of incidence varied throughout the southwestern United States and peaked following periods of low precipitation and soil moisture. From year‐to‐year, however, autumn incidence was higher following cooler, wetter, and productive springs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. In southcentral Arizona, incidence increased significantly through time. By 2015, incidence in this region was more than double the rate in the San Joaquin Valley. Our analysis provides a framework for interpreting the influence of climate change on valley fever incidence dynamics. Our results may allow the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to improve their estimates of the spatial pattern and intensity of valley fever endemicity.","Gorris, M. E.; L. A. Cat; C. S. Zender; K. K. Treseder; J. T. Randerson",,10.1002/2017GH000095,,,6-24,,,"Coccidioidomycosis dynamics in relation to climate in the southwestern United States",2018,,25334,e7604efd-b24b-43f7-93b9-5046de36a18a,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2017GH000095
/reference/e7927819-0782-42ff-a491-6e125f61600e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e7927819-0782-42ff-a491-6e125f61600e,e7927819-0782-42ff-a491-6e125f61600e,,"Bouchama, A.
Dehbi, M.
Mohamed, G.
Matthies, F.
Shoukri, M.
Menne, B.",,10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009,,,2170-2176,,,"Prognostic factors in heat wave-related deaths: A meta-analysis",2007,0,1326,e7927819-0782-42ff-a491-6e125f61600e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1001/archinte.167.20.ira70009
/reference/e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c,e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c,,"Easterling, D.R.; J.R. Arnold; T. Knutson; K.E. Kunkel; A.N. LeGrande; L.R. Leung; R.S. Vose; D.E. Waliser; M.F. Wehner","Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I",10.7930/J0H993CC,"Wuebbles, D.J.; D.W. Fahey; K.A. Hibbard; D.J. Dokken; B.C. Stewart; T.K. Maycock",,207-230,"Washington, DC, USA","U.S. Global Change Research Program","Precipitation Change in the United States",2017,7,21565,e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c,"Book Section",/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/precipitation-change
/reference/e99ced6d-a1ff-421b-af94-b6aa5ba4e57e,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e99ced6d-a1ff-421b-af94-b6aa5ba4e57e,e99ced6d-a1ff-421b-af94-b6aa5ba4e57e,,"Hobday, Alistair J.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Perkins, Sarah E.; Smale, Dan A.; Straub, Sandra C.; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Benthuysen, Jessica A.; Burrows, Michael T.; Donat, Markus G.; Feng, Ming; Holbrook, Neil J.; Moore, Pippa J.; Scannell, Hillary A.; Sen Gupta, Alex; Wernberg, Thomas",,10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014,,,227-238,,,"A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves",2016,,23779,e99ced6d-a1ff-421b-af94-b6aa5ba4e57e,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014
/reference/e9a8c5d2-f0f1-4c11-b2f7-9a7f0d1c639c,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e9a8c5d2-f0f1-4c11-b2f7-9a7f0d1c639c,e9a8c5d2-f0f1-4c11-b2f7-9a7f0d1c639c,,"Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.",,10.1002/eco.1645,,,863-879,,,"Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design",2015,,23841,e9a8c5d2-f0f1-4c11-b2f7-9a7f0d1c639c,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/eco.1645
/reference/ea30a052-6cc4-43c0-98e7-653e767a2c96,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea30a052-6cc4-43c0-98e7-653e767a2c96,ea30a052-6cc4-43c0-98e7-653e767a2c96,,"Brand, L. Arriana; Farnsworth, Matthew L.; Meyers, Jay; Dickson, Brett G.; Grouios, Christopher; Scheib, Amanda F.; Scherer, Rick D.",,10.1016/j.biocon.2016.05.032,,,104-111,,,"Mitigation-driven translocation effects on temperature, condition, growth, and mortality of Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the face of solar energy development",2016,,23728,ea30a052-6cc4-43c0-98e7-653e767a2c96,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.05.032
/reference/ea364386-1191-4070-b0c3-5fad624883ca,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea364386-1191-4070-b0c3-5fad624883ca,ea364386-1191-4070-b0c3-5fad624883ca,,"NOAA,",,,,,,"Boulder, CO","NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory","NOAA Climate Change Web Portal",2017,16,26376,ea364386-1191-4070-b0c3-5fad624883ca,"Web Page",/webpage/f9a2ef85-c903-4ac5-be93-0f0104eb5b73
/reference/ea3751db-694e-4a40-b005-b98bede9c812,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea3751db-694e-4a40-b005-b98bede9c812,ea3751db-694e-4a40-b005-b98bede9c812,"Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.","Schubert, Siegfried D.; Ronald E. Stewart; Hailan Wang; Mathew Barlow; Ernesto H. Berbery; Wenju Cai; Martin P. Hoerling; Krishna K. Kanikicharla; Randal D. Koster; Bradfield Lyon; Annarita Mariotti; Carlos R. Mechoso; Omar V. Müller; Belen Rodriguez-Fonseca; Richard Seager; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Lixia Zhang; Tianjun Zhou",,10.1175/jcli-d-15-0452.1,,,3989-4019,,,"Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits",2016,,26349,ea3751db-694e-4a40-b005-b98bede9c812,"Journal Article",/article/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0452.1
/reference/eaabcdba-02ea-478b-899b-d0924862128b,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/eaabcdba-02ea-478b-899b-d0924862128b,eaabcdba-02ea-478b-899b-d0924862128b,,"Saha, Michael V.; Davis, Robert E.; Hondula, David M.",,10.1093/aje/kwt264,,,467-474,,,"Mortality displacement as a function of heat event strength in 7 US cities",2014,0,19131,eaabcdba-02ea-478b-899b-d0924862128b,"Journal Article",/article/10.1093/aje/kwt264
/reference/ec22582a-b534-47c5-b116-5c8b22a4d2b6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ec22582a-b534-47c5-b116-5c8b22a4d2b6,ec22582a-b534-47c5-b116-5c8b22a4d2b6,,"Harpold, Adrian A.; Michael Dettinger; Seshadri Rajagopal ",,10.1029/2017EO068775,,,,,,"Defining snow drought and why it matters",2017,,26364,ec22582a-b534-47c5-b116-5c8b22a4d2b6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1029/2017EO068775
/reference/ecb17415-90a9-421c-8e49-620b2f1a71b6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ecb17415-90a9-421c-8e49-620b2f1a71b6,ecb17415-90a9-421c-8e49-620b2f1a71b6,"The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that postfire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths of watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by >100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight tenths of the watersheds. In the western USA, many human communities rely on water from rivers and reservoirs that originates in watersheds where sedimentation is projected to increase. Increased sedimentation could negatively impact water supply and quality for some communities, in addition to affecting stream channel stability and aquatic ecosystems.","Sankey, Joel B.; Kreitler, Jason; Hawbaker, Todd J.; McVay, Jason L.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Mueller, Erich R.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Lowe, Scott E.; Sankey, Temuulen T.",,10.1002/2017GL073979,,,8884-8892,,,"Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds",2017,,25980,ecb17415-90a9-421c-8e49-620b2f1a71b6,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2017GL073979
/reference/ecd94324-df90-4ee6-a2a3-d58edcc95d35,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ecd94324-df90-4ee6-a2a3-d58edcc95d35,ecd94324-df90-4ee6-a2a3-d58edcc95d35,,"Yurok Wildland Fire Crew,",,,,,2-4,,,"Fire council ignites long term burn plan",2014,,23892,ecd94324-df90-4ee6-a2a3-d58edcc95d35,"Journal Article",/generic/8a62b4e4-eec2-4ea3-9677-3af29f7f323f
/reference/ed70fd44-147d-4ffa-ab1b-68451bd1d335,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ed70fd44-147d-4ffa-ab1b-68451bd1d335,ed70fd44-147d-4ffa-ab1b-68451bd1d335,"In the Southwest and Central Plains of Western North America, climate change is expected to increase drought severity in the coming decades. These regions nevertheless experienced extended Medieval-era droughts that were more persistent than any historical event, providing crucial targets in the paleoclimate record for benchmarking the severity of future drought risks. We use an empirical drought reconstruction and three soil moisture metrics from 17 state-of-the-art general circulation models to show that these models project significantly drier conditions in the later half of the 21st century compared to the 20th century and earlier paleoclimatic intervals. This desiccation is consistent across most of the models and moisture balance variables, indicating a coherent and robust drying response to warming despite the diversity of models and metrics analyzed. Notably, future drought risk will likely exceed even the driest centuries of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1100–1300 CE) in both moderate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) future emissions scenarios, leading to unprecedented drought conditions during the last millennium.","Cook, Benjamin I.; Ault, Toby R.; Smerdon, Jason E.",,10.1126/sciadv.1400082,,,e1400082,,,"Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains",2015,0,20415,ed70fd44-147d-4ffa-ab1b-68451bd1d335,"Journal Article",/article/10.1126/sciadv.1400082
/reference/edb441b8-5b84-4476-9406-3e4ca7c6bc87,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/edb441b8-5b84-4476-9406-3e4ca7c6bc87,edb441b8-5b84-4476-9406-3e4ca7c6bc87,,"Coats, Sloan; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Griffin, Daniel; Cook, Benjamin I.",,10.1002/2015JD023085,,,8052-8064,,,"Winter-to-summer precipitation phasing in southwestern North America: A multicentury perspective from paleoclimatic model-data comparisons",2015,,23746,edb441b8-5b84-4476-9406-3e4ca7c6bc87,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2015JD023085
/reference/f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190,f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190,,IPCC,,10.1017/CBO9781107415324,,,1535,"Cambridge, UK and New York, NY","Cambridge University Press","Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change",2013,10,16456,f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190,Report,/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1
/reference/f0366470-ff07-4d4f-b785-8bea5f8e54c2,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f0366470-ff07-4d4f-b785-8bea5f8e54c2,f0366470-ff07-4d4f-b785-8bea5f8e54c2,,"van Riper, Charles, III; James R. Hatten; J. Tom Giermakowski; David Mattson; Jennifer A. Holmes; Matthew J. Johnson; Erika M. Nowak; Kirsten Ironside; Michael Peters; Paul Heinrich; K. L. Cole; C. Truettner; Cecil R. Schwalbe",,10.3133/ofr20141050,,,100,"Reston, VA",,"Projecting Climate Effects on Birds and Reptiles of the Southwestern United States",2014,10,23902,f0366470-ff07-4d4f-b785-8bea5f8e54c2,Report,/report/projecting-climate-effects-on-birds-reptiles-southwestern-united-states
/reference/f0a98dc9-f5c5-4fa0-a90c-7791e2809744,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f0a98dc9-f5c5-4fa0-a90c-7791e2809744,f0a98dc9-f5c5-4fa0-a90c-7791e2809744,,"Lavers, David A.; Ralph, F. Martin; Waliser, Duane E.; Gershunov, Alexander; Dettinger, Michael D.",,10.1002/2015GL064672,,,5617-5625,,,"Climate change intensification of horizontal water vapor transport in CMIP5",2015,0,20580,f0a98dc9-f5c5-4fa0-a90c-7791e2809744,"Journal Article",/article/10.1002/2015GL064672
/reference/f0d25167-e8ea-435d-838b-44d0f8be9dc9,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f0d25167-e8ea-435d-838b-44d0f8be9dc9,f0d25167-e8ea-435d-838b-44d0f8be9dc9,,"Jeon, S.; Prabhat,; Byna, S.; Gu, J.; Collins, W. D.; Wehner, M. F.",,10.5194/ascmo-1-45-2015,,,45-57,,"Copernicus Publications","Characterization of extreme precipitation within atmospheric river events over California",2015,,23795,f0d25167-e8ea-435d-838b-44d0f8be9dc9,"Journal Article",/article/10.5194/ascmo-1-45-2015
/reference/f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,,USGCRP,,10.7930/J0R49NQX,,,,"Washington, DC","U.S. Global Change Research Program","The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment",2016,9,19368,f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6,Book,/report/usgcrp-climate-human-health-assessment-2016
/reference/f3814030-383d-4915-8615-d1e00db524aa,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f3814030-383d-4915-8615-d1e00db524aa,f3814030-383d-4915-8615-d1e00db524aa,,"Hornor, Gail",,10.1016/j.pedhc.2016.09.005,,,384-390,,,Resilience,2017,,23784,f3814030-383d-4915-8615-d1e00db524aa,"Journal Article",/article/10.1016/j.pedhc.2016.09.005
/reference/f3b04c41-c83d-49dc-b7f7-69fb527b0a4f,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f3b04c41-c83d-49dc-b7f7-69fb527b0a4f,f3b04c41-c83d-49dc-b7f7-69fb527b0a4f,,"Talati, Shuchi; Zhai, Haibo; Kyle, G. Page; Morgan, M. Granger; Patel, Pralit; Liu, Lu",,10.1021/acs.est.6b01389,,,12095-12104,,"American Chemical Society","Consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest under alternative climate, technology, and policy futures",2016,,23868,f3b04c41-c83d-49dc-b7f7-69fb527b0a4f,"Journal Article",/article/10.1021/acs.est.6b01389
/reference/f459e358-3071-4fe5-a934-86ad4b007b57,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f459e358-3071-4fe5-a934-86ad4b007b57,f459e358-3071-4fe5-a934-86ad4b007b57,,"Nakashima, D.J.; Galloway McLean, K.; Thulstrup, H.D.; Ramos Castillo, A.; Rubis, J.T.",,,,,120,,"UNESCO, Paris and UNU, Darwin","Weathering Uncertainty: Traditional Knowledge for Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation",2012,10,19124,f459e358-3071-4fe5-a934-86ad4b007b57,Report,/report/unesco-unu-adaptation-2012
/reference/f4859f1b-a4d7-4e21-a05b-70204fd6df59,https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/f4859f1b-a4d7-4e21-a05b-70204fd6df59,f4859f1b-a4d7-4e21-a05b-70204fd6df59,"Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.","Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.",,10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7,,,1399,,,"Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise",2017,,22533,f4859f1b-a4d7-4e21-a05b-70204fd6df59,"Journal Article",/article/10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7