--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hoshiko, Sumi; English, Paul; Smith, Daniel; Trent, Roger' DOI: 10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8 ISSN: 1661-8564 Issue: 2 Journal: International Journal of Public Health Pages: 133-137 Title: 'A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave' Volume: 55 Year: 2010 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 17600 _uuid: 60c98535-ad37-43fa-b0fd-e7c850782d13 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/60c98535-ad37-43fa-b0fd-e7c850782d13.yaml identifier: 60c98535-ad37-43fa-b0fd-e7c850782d13 uri: /reference/60c98535-ad37-43fa-b0fd-e7c850782d13 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby; Yang, Qing; Hagos, Samson; Qian, Yun' DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065435 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 17 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: atmospheric rivers; climate change; thermodynamic effects; dynamical effects; increased moisture; 1655 Water cycles; 1610 Atmosphere; 1817 Extreme events; 3305 Climate change and variability; 3337 Global climate models Pages: 7179-7186 Title: Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America Volume: 42 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19735 _uuid: 60ce531d-0064-4170-8b4d-e63bbb9f0c67 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2015GL065435 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/60ce531d-0064-4170-8b4d-e63bbb9f0c67.yaml identifier: 60ce531d-0064-4170-8b4d-e63bbb9f0c67 uri: /reference/60ce531d-0064-4170-8b4d-e63bbb9f0c67 - attrs: Author: 'Reed, Sasha C.; Coe, Kirsten K.; Sparks, Jed P.; Housman, David C.; Zelikova, Tamara J.; Belnap, Jayne' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1596 Date: 07/01/online Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 752-755 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility Volume: 2 Year: 2012 _record_number: 23846 _uuid: 61b9d14a-70a1-41d7-8781-abe709ac5ff5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate1596 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61b9d14a-70a1-41d7-8781-abe709ac5ff5.yaml identifier: 61b9d14a-70a1-41d7-8781-abe709ac5ff5 uri: /reference/61b9d14a-70a1-41d7-8781-abe709ac5ff5 - attrs: Abstract: 'Global warming is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts in the twenty-first century, but the relative contributions from changes in moisture supply (precipitation) versus evaporative demand (potential evapotranspiration; PET) have not been comprehensively assessed. Using output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, projected twenty-first century drying and wetting trends are investigated using two offline indices of surface moisture balance: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). PDSI and SPEI projections using precipitation and Penman-Monteith based PET changes from the GCMs generally agree, showing robust cross-model drying in western North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and the Amazon and robust wetting occurring in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and east Africa (PDSI only). The SPEI is more sensitive to PET changes than the PDSI, especially in arid regions such as the Sahara and Middle East. Regional drying and wetting patterns largely mirror the spatially heterogeneous response of precipitation in the models, although drying in the PDSI and SPEI calculations extends beyond the regions of reduced precipitation. This expansion of drying areas is attributed to globally widespread increases in PET, caused by increases in surface net radiation and the vapor pressure deficit. Increased PET not only intensifies drying in areas where precipitation is already reduced, it also drives areas into drought that would otherwise experience little drying or even wetting from precipitation trends alone. This PET amplification effect is largest in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes, and is especially pronounced in western North America, Europe, and southeast China. Compared to PDSI projections using precipitation changes only, the projections incorporating both precipitation and PET changes increase the percentage of global land area projected to experience at least moderate drying (PDSI standard deviation of ≤−1) by the end of the twenty-first century from 12 to 30 %. PET induced moderate drying is even more severe in the SPEI projections (SPEI standard deviation of ≤−1; 11 to 44 %), although this is likely less meaningful because much of the PET induced drying in the SPEI occurs in the aforementioned arid regions. Integrated accounting of both the supply and demand sides of the surface moisture balance is therefore critical for characterizing the full range of projected drought risks tied to increasing greenhouse gases and associated warming of the climate system.' Author: 'Cook, Benjamin I.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Seager, Richard; Coats, Sloan' DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y Date: November 01 ISSN: 1432-0894 Issue: 9 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 2607-2627 Title: Global warming and 21st century drying Type of Article: journal article Volume: 43 Year: 2014 _record_number: 24270 _uuid: 61c46ee1-2699-4d2e-b1c6-4c72b78b67a5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/61c46ee1-2699-4d2e-b1c6-4c72b78b67a5.yaml identifier: 61c46ee1-2699-4d2e-b1c6-4c72b78b67a5 uri: /reference/61c46ee1-2699-4d2e-b1c6-4c72b78b67a5 - attrs: Author: 'Crouch, Jake; Smith, Adam B.; Heim, Richard R.; Fenimore, Chris' DOI: 10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 Issue: 8 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: 'S175, S178-S179' Title: 'Regional climates: United States [in "State of the Climate in 2016"]' Volume: 98 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26357 _uuid: 6295ddc2-380e-4556-9df2-05c26f96e5ca reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2017BAMSStateoftheClimate.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6295ddc2-380e-4556-9df2-05c26f96e5ca.yaml identifier: 6295ddc2-380e-4556-9df2-05c26f96e5ca uri: /reference/6295ddc2-380e-4556-9df2-05c26f96e5ca - attrs: Abstract: 'The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) 2015-2030 is the first of three United Nations (UN) landmark agreements this year (the other two being the Sustainable Development Goals due in September 2015 and the climate change agreements due in December 2015). It represents a step in the direction of global policy coherence with explicit reference to health, economic development, and climate change. The multiple efforts of the health community in the policy development process, including campaigning for safe schools and hospitals, helped to put people’s mental and physical health, resilience, and well-being higher up the DRR agenda compared with its predecessor, the 2005 Hyogo Framework for Action. This report reflects on these policy developments and their implications and reviews the range of health impacts from disasters; summarizes the widened remit of DRR in the post-2015 world; and finally, presents the science and health calls of the Sendai Framework to be implemented over the next 15 years to reduce disaster losses in lives and livelihoods. Aitsi-Selmi A , Murray V . Protecting the Health and Well-being of Populations from Disasters: Health and Health Care in The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(1):74–78.' Author: 'Aitsi-Selmi, Amina; Murray, Virginia' DOI: 10.1017/S1049023X15005531 Database Provider: Cambridge University Press EPub Date: 12/17 ISSN: 1049-023X Issue: 1 Journal: Prehospital and Disaster Medicine Keywords: disaster; disaster risk reduction; emergency response; global health policy; public health Name of Database: Cambridge Core Pages: 74-78 Publisher: Cambridge University Press Title: 'Protecting the health and well-being of populations from disasters: Health and health care in the Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction 2015-2030' Volume: 31 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23705 _uuid: 631d79d7-b87c-40ef-be1b-19bad3bf6166 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1017/S1049023X15005531 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/631d79d7-b87c-40ef-be1b-19bad3bf6166.yaml identifier: 631d79d7-b87c-40ef-be1b-19bad3bf6166 uri: /reference/631d79d7-b87c-40ef-be1b-19bad3bf6166 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Colorado River is the primary water source for more than 30 million people in the United States and Mexico. Recent studies that project streamf low changes in the Colorado River all project annual declines, but the magnitude of the projected decreases range from less than 10% to 45% by the mid-twenty-first century. To understand these differences, we address the questions the management community has raised: Why is there such a wide range of projections of impacts of future climate change on Colorado River streamflow, and how should this uncertainty be interpreted? We identify four major sources of disparities among studies that arise from both methodological and model differences. In order of importance, these are differences in 1) the global climate models (GCMs) and emission scenarios used; 2) the ability of land surface and atmospheric models to simulate properly the high-elevation runoff source areas; 3) the sensitivities of land surface hydrology models to precipitation and temperature changes; and 4) the methods used to statistically downscale GCM scenarios. In accounting for these differences, there is substantial evidence across studies that future Colorado River streamflow will be reduced under the current trajectories of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions because of a combination of strong temperature-induced runoff curtailment and reduced annual precipitation. Reconstructions of preinstrumental streamflows provide additional insights; the greatest risk to Colorado River streamf lows is a multidecadal drought, like that observed in paleoreconstructions, exacerbated by a steady reduction in flows due to climate change. This could result in decades of sustained streamflows much lower than have been observed in the ~100 years of instrumental record.' Author: 'Vano, Julie A.; Bradley Udall; Daniel R. Cayan; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Levi D. Brekke; Tapash Das; Holly C. Hartmann; Hugo G. Hidalgo; Martin Hoerling; Gregory J. McCabe; Kiyomi Morino; Robert S. Webb; Kevin Werner; Dennis P. Lettenmaier' DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-12-00228.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: 59-78 Title: Understanding uncertainties in future Colorado River streamflow Volume: 95 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21543 _uuid: 64014404-d26e-45c7-9b33-8e2253a9ca04 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/bams-d-12-00228.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/64014404-d26e-45c7-9b33-8e2253a9ca04.yaml identifier: 64014404-d26e-45c7-9b33-8e2253a9ca04 uri: /reference/64014404-d26e-45c7-9b33-8e2253a9ca04 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: 'Bauer, William J., Jr.' ISBN: 9780295998350 Place Published: 'Seattle, WA' Publisher: University of Washington Press Title: 'California through Native Eyes: Reclaiming History' Year: 2016 _record_number: 23722 _uuid: 6408aad9-0e73-4bfe-aaf7-95d8e1c105d8 reftype: Book child_publication: /book/california-through-native-eyes-reclaiming-history href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6408aad9-0e73-4bfe-aaf7-95d8e1c105d8.yaml identifier: 6408aad9-0e73-4bfe-aaf7-95d8e1c105d8 uri: /reference/6408aad9-0e73-4bfe-aaf7-95d8e1c105d8 - attrs: Author: 'Garcia, Rita; Freire, Fausto' DOI: 10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.145 Date: 2017/11/01/ ISSN: 1364-0321 Journal: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews Keywords: Electric vehicles; Energy consumption; Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG); Life-cycle assessment (LCA); Vehicle fleets Pages: 935-945 Title: A review of fleet-based life-cycle approaches focusing on energy and environmental impacts of vehicles Volume: 79 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23766 _uuid: 64602d61-c0bd-4ca0-8224-dd046328cb6e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.rser.2017.05.145 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/64602d61-c0bd-4ca0-8224-dd046328cb6e.yaml identifier: 64602d61-c0bd-4ca0-8224-dd046328cb6e uri: /reference/64602d61-c0bd-4ca0-8224-dd046328cb6e - attrs: Author: 'Woodhouse, C. A.; Meko, D. M.; Griffin, D.; Castro, C. L.' DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20098 ISSN: 1944-7973 Issue: 2 Journal: Water Resources Research Keywords: Rio Grande basin; drought impacts; dendrochronology; North American monsoon; 1812 Drought; 1833 Hydroclimatology; 3335 North American Monsoon; 3344 Paleoclimatology Pages: 844-850 Title: 'Tree rings and multiseason drought variability in the lower Rio Grande Basin, USA' Volume: 49 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23886 _uuid: 65135859-7587-4f65-b2b3-8ca4d5b8ce49 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/wrcr.20098 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/65135859-7587-4f65-b2b3-8ca4d5b8ce49.yaml identifier: 65135859-7587-4f65-b2b3-8ca4d5b8ce49 uri: /reference/65135859-7587-4f65-b2b3-8ca4d5b8ce49 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'NOAA,' Place Published: 'Asheville, NC' Publisher: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information Title: 'National Climate Report: June 2017' URL: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201706 Year: 2017 _record_number: 26375 _uuid: 6631c5e2-c71d-4959-b8a1-fcd53c8552e9 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/9ef508f0-2af0-416d-81f2-2ea843959c97 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6631c5e2-c71d-4959-b8a1-fcd53c8552e9.yaml identifier: 6631c5e2-c71d-4959-b8a1-fcd53c8552e9 uri: /reference/6631c5e2-c71d-4959-b8a1-fcd53c8552e9 - attrs: Abstract: 'This study examines the health impacts of recent heat waves statewide and for six subregions of California: the north and south coasts, the Central Valley, the Mojave Desert, southern deserts, and northern forests. By using canonical correlation analysis applied to daily maximum temperatures and morbidity data in the form of unscheduled hospitalizations from 1999 to 2009, 19 heat waves spanning 3?15 days in duration that had a significant impact on health were identified. On average, hospital admissions were found to increase by 7% on the peak heat-wave day, with a significant impact seen for several disease categories, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, dehydration, acute renal failure, heat illness, and mental health. Statewide, there were 11 000 excess hospitalizations that were due to extreme heat over the period, yet the majority of impactful events were not accompanied by a heat advisory or warning from the National Weather Service. On a regional basis, the strongest health impacts are seen in the Central Valley and the north and south coasts. The north coast contributes disproportionately to the statewide health impact during heat waves, with a 10.5% increase in daily morbidity at heat-wave peak as compared with 8.1% for the Central Valley and 5.6% for the south coast. The temperature threshold at which an impact is seen varies by subregion and timing within the season. These results suggest that heat-warning criteria should consider local percentile thresholds to account for acclimation to local climatological conditions as well as the seasonal timing of a forecast heat wave.' Author: 'Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Tardy, Alexander; Basu, Rupa' DOI: 10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0130.1 Date: 2014/01/01 ISSN: 1558-8424 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Pages: 3-19 Publisher: American Meteorological Society Title: The impact of recent heat waves on human health in California Volume: 53 Year: 2014 _record_number: 18489 _uuid: 66939f1c-29c8-4722-a656-f93105b57aa9 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/JAMC-D-13-0130.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/66939f1c-29c8-4722-a656-f93105b57aa9.yaml identifier: 66939f1c-29c8-4722-a656-f93105b57aa9 uri: /reference/66939f1c-29c8-4722-a656-f93105b57aa9 - attrs: Abstract: "California's primary hydrologic system, the San Francisco Estuary and its upstream watershed, is vulnerable to the regional hydrologic consequences of projected global climate change. Previous work has shown that a projected warming would result in a reduction of snowpack storage leading to higher winter and lower spring-summer streamflows and increased spring-summer salinities in the estuary. The present work shows that these hydrologic changes exhibit a strong dependence on elevation, with the greatest loss of snowpack volume in the 1300–2700 m elevation range. Exploiting hydrologic and estuarine modeling capabilities to trace water as it moves through the system reveals that the shift of water in mid-elevations of the Sacramento river basin from snowmelt to rainfall runoff is the dominant cause of projected changes in estuarine inflows and salinity. Additionally, although spring-summer losses of estuarine inflows are balanced by winter gains, the losses have a stronger influence on salinity since longer spring-summer residence times allow the inflow changes to accumulate in the estuary. The changes in inflows sourced in the Sacramento River basin in approximately the 1300–2200 m elevation range thereby lead to a net increase in estuarine salinity under the projected warming. Such changes would impact ecosystems throughout the watershed and threaten to contaminate much of California's freshwater supply." Author: 'Knowles, Noah; Cayan, Daniel R.' DOI: 10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013696.14308.b9 Date: January 01 ISSN: 1573-1480 Issue: 1 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 319-336 Title: Elevational dependence of projected hydrologic changes in the San Francisco estuary and watershed Type of Article: journal article Volume: 62 Year: 2004 _record_number: 26372 _uuid: 66a19a5c-5a53-47ae-ac7b-4324760da7b6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1023/B:CLIM.0000013696.14308.b9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/66a19a5c-5a53-47ae-ac7b-4324760da7b6.yaml identifier: 66a19a5c-5a53-47ae-ac7b-4324760da7b6 uri: /reference/66a19a5c-5a53-47ae-ac7b-4324760da7b6 - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate change may constrain future electricity supply adequacy by reducing electric transmission capacity and increasing electricity demand. The carrying capacity of electric power cables decreases as ambient air temperatures rise; similarly, during the summer peak period, electricity loads typically increase with hotter air temperatures due to increased air conditioning usage. As atmospheric carbon concentrations increase, higher ambient air temperatures may strain power infrastructure by simultaneously reducing transmission capacity and increasing peak electricity load. We estimate the impacts of rising ambient air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak per-capita electricity load for 121 planning areas in the United States using downscaled global climate model projections. Together, these planning areas account for roughly 80% of current peak summertime load. We estimate climate-attributable capacity reductions to transmission lines by constructing thermal models of representative conductors, then forcing these models with future temperature projections to determine the percent change in rated ampacity. Next, we assess the impact of climate change on electricity load by using historical relationships between ambient temperature and utility-scale summertime peak load to estimate the extent to which climate change will incur additional peak load increases. We find that by mid-century (2040–2060), increases in ambient air temperature may reduce average summertime transmission capacity by 1.9%–5.8% relative to the 1990–2010 reference period. At the same time, peak per-capita summertime loads may rise by 4.2%–15% on average due to increases in ambient air temperature. In the absence of energy efficiency gains, demand-side management programs and transmission infrastructure upgrades, these load increases have the potential to upset current assumptions about future electricity supply adequacy.' Author: 'Bartos, Matthew; Mikhail Chester; Nathan Johnson; Brandon Gorman; Daniel Eisenberg; Igor Linkov; Matthew Bates' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 11 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 114008 Title: Impacts of rising air temperatures on electric transmission ampacity and peak electricity load in the United States Volume: 11 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23662 _uuid: 673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/114008 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6.yaml identifier: 673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6 uri: /reference/673a11a4-4d3c-4303-af82-29de1ca24bd6 - attrs: Abstract: 'Biodiversity elements with narrow niches and restricted distributions (i.e., ‘short range endemics,’ SREs) are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The New Mexico Ridge-nosed Rattlesnake (Crotalus willardi obscurus, CWO), an SRE listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act within three sky islands of southwestern North America, is constrained at low elevation by drought and at high elevation by wildfire. We combined long-term recapture and molecular data with demographic and niche modeling to gauge its climate-driven status, distribution, and projected longevity. The largest population (Animas) is numerically constricted (N = 151), with few breeding adults (Nb = 24) and an elevated inbreeding coefficient (ΔF = 0.77; 100 years). Mean home range (0.07km2) is significantly smaller compared to other North American rattlesnakes, and movements are within, not among sky islands. Demographic values, when gauged against those displayed by other endangered/Red-Listed reptiles [e.g., Loggerhead Sea Turtle (Caretta caretta)], are either comparable or markedly lower. Survival rate differs significantly between genders (female35 yr) is between 20% and 50%, and the risk of an unprecedented 50-yr megadrought is nonnegligible under the most severe warming scenario (5%–10%). These findings are important to consider as adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed to cope with regional impacts of climate change, where population growth is high and multidecadal megadrought—worse than anything seen during the last 2000 years—would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region.' Author: 'Ault, Toby R.; Julia E. Cole; Jonathan T. Overpeck; Gregory T. Pederson; David M. Meko' DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00282.1 Issue: 20 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'Drought,Paleoclimate,Risk assessment,General circulation models,Climate variability' Pages: 7529-7549 Title: Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data Volume: 27 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23714 _uuid: 6ee9249a-00c5-46bc-9218-8bdad39562e2 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00282.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6ee9249a-00c5-46bc-9218-8bdad39562e2.yaml identifier: 6ee9249a-00c5-46bc-9218-8bdad39562e2 uri: /reference/6ee9249a-00c5-46bc-9218-8bdad39562e2 - attrs: Author: 'Chief, Karletta; Meadow, Alison; Whyte, Kyle' DOI: 10.3390/w8080350 ISSN: 2073-4441 Issue: 8 Journal: Water Pages: 350 Title: Engaging southwestern tribes in sustainable water resources topics and management Volume: 8 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21627 _uuid: 6eef5a47-4a5e-4d07-88d4-b3cdff9bf9a0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3390/w8080350 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6eef5a47-4a5e-4d07-88d4-b3cdff9bf9a0.yaml identifier: 6eef5a47-4a5e-4d07-88d4-b3cdff9bf9a0 uri: /reference/6eef5a47-4a5e-4d07-88d4-b3cdff9bf9a0 - attrs: Author: 'Macmillan, Alexandra; Jennie Connor; Karen Witten; Robin Kearns; David Rees; Alistair Woodward' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1307250 Issue: 4 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 335-344 Title: 'The societal costs and benefits of commuter bicycling: Simulating the effects of specific policies using system dynamics modeling' Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23815 _uuid: 703ff3a5-ecd4-4756-bdc7-0f07903ceb57 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1307250 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/703ff3a5-ecd4-4756-bdc7-0f07903ceb57.yaml identifier: 703ff3a5-ecd4-4756-bdc7-0f07903ceb57 uri: /reference/703ff3a5-ecd4-4756-bdc7-0f07903ceb57 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "Future drought is projected to occur under warmer temperature conditions as climate change progresses, referred to here as global-change-type drought, yet quantitative assessments of the triggers and potential extent of drought-induced vegetation die-off remain pivotal uncertainties in assessing climate-change impacts. Of particular concern is regional-scale mortality of overstory trees, which rapidly alters ecosystem type, associated ecosystem properties, and land surface conditions for decades. Here, we quantify regional-scale vegetation die-off across southwestern North American woodlands in 2002-2003 in response to drought and associated bark beetle infestations. At an intensively studied site within the region, we quantified that after 15 months of depleted soil water content, >90% of the dominant, overstory tree species (Pinus edulis, a pinon) died. The die-off was reflected in changes in a remotely sensed index of vegetation greenness (Normalized Difference Vegetation index), not only at the intensively studied site but also across the region, extending over 12,000 km(2) or more; aerial and field surveys confirmed the general extent of the die-off. Notably, the recent drought was warmer than the previous subcontinental drought of the 1950s. The limited, available observations suggest that die-off from the recent drought was more extensive than that from the previous drought, extending into wetter sites within the tree species' distribution. Our results quantify a trigger leading to rapid, drought-induced die-off of overstory woody plants at subcontinental scale and highlight the potential for such die-off to be more severe and extensive for future global-change-type drought under warmer conditions." Author: "Breshears, D.D.\rCobb, N.S.\rRich, P.M.\rPrice, K.P.\rAllen, C.D.\rBalice, R.G.\rRomme, W.H.\rKastens, J.H.\rFloyd, M.L.\rBelnap, J.\rAnderson, J.J.\rMyers, O.B.\rMeyer, C.W." Author Address: 'Breshears, DD (reprint author), Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources, Inst Study Plant Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources, Inst Study Plant Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA Univ Arizona, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA No Arizona Univ, Merriam Powell Ctr Environm Res, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA No Arizona Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Flagstaff, AZ 86011 USA Los Alamos Natl Lab, Div Earth & Environm Sci, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Los Alamos Natl Lab, Environm Stewardship Div, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA Univ Kansas, Dept Geog, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA Univ Kansas, Dept Math, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA Kansan Appl Remote Sensing Program, Lawrence, KS 66047 USA' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0505734102 Date: OCT 18 2005 ISSN: 0027-8424 Issue: 42 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Keywords: tree mortality; vegetation dynamics; climate change impacts; woodlands; Pinus edulis; PINUS-EDULIS; JUNIPERUS-MONOSPERMA; SOIL-MOISTURE; CLIMATE; PRECIPITATION; DISTURBANCE; SOUTHWEST; WOODLAND; DYNAMICS; IMPACTS Language: English Pages: 15144-15148 Short Title: Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought Title: Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought URL: http://www.pnas.org/content/102/42/15144.full.pdf+html Volume: 102 Year: 2005 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 1419 _uuid: 70730c1e-50f8-43db-b7b2-4d7ae90ba230 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.0505734102 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/70730c1e-50f8-43db-b7b2-4d7ae90ba230.yaml identifier: 70730c1e-50f8-43db-b7b2-4d7ae90ba230 uri: /reference/70730c1e-50f8-43db-b7b2-4d7ae90ba230 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'USDA,' Institution: USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service Pages: various Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Series Volume: AC-12-S-8 Title: '2012 Census of Agriculture: Specialty Crops' URL: https://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Specialty_Crops/SCROPS.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 23908 _uuid: 711eb818-c953-4b08-972c-afa95525d668 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/2012-census-agriculture-specialty-crops href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/711eb818-c953-4b08-972c-afa95525d668.yaml identifier: 711eb818-c953-4b08-972c-afa95525d668 uri: /reference/711eb818-c953-4b08-972c-afa95525d668 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Clow, D.W.' DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1 ISSN: 1520-0442 Issue: 9 Journal: Journal of Climate Pages: 2293-2306 Title: 'Changes in the timing of snowmelt and streamflow in Colorado: A response to recent warming' Volume: 23 Year: 2010 _chapter: '["Ch. 14: Rural Communities FINAL"]' _record_number: 218 _uuid: 71dfd0f7-2214-4dad-b217-6597d995e700 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/71dfd0f7-2214-4dad-b217-6597d995e700.yaml identifier: 71dfd0f7-2214-4dad-b217-6597d995e700 uri: /reference/71dfd0f7-2214-4dad-b217-6597d995e700 - attrs: Abstract: 'Heat has been known to increase the risk of many health endpoints. However, few studies have examined its effects on stroke. The objective of this case-crossover study is to investigate the effects of high heat and its effect modifiers on the risk of stroke hospitalization in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania.' Author: 'Ha, Sandie; Talbott, Evelyn O.; Kan, Haidong; Prins, Cindy A.; Xu, Xiaohui' DOI: 10.1007/s00420-013-0897-2 Date: July 01 ISSN: 1432-1246 Issue: 5 Journal: International Archives of Occupational and Environmental Health Pages: 557-565 Title: 'The effects of heat stress and its effect modifiers on stroke hospitalizations in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 87 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23774 _uuid: 72243e43-6f1a-4726-adc4-b7c53ad55fd5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00420-013-0897-2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/72243e43-6f1a-4726-adc4-b7c53ad55fd5.yaml identifier: 72243e43-6f1a-4726-adc4-b7c53ad55fd5 uri: /reference/72243e43-6f1a-4726-adc4-b7c53ad55fd5 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Vinyeta, Kirsten; Kathy Lynn' Institution: U.S. Department of Agriculture Pacific Northwest Research Station Pages: 37 Place Published: 'Portland, OR' Series Volume: General Technical Report PNW-GTR-879 Title: Exploring the Role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in Climate Change Initiatives URL: https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr879.pdf Year: 2013 _record_number: 21326 _uuid: 7418d1d5-0316-45cc-b9e0-292cce841cda reftype: Report child_publication: /report/exploring-role-traditional-ecological-knowledge-climate-change-initiatives href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7418d1d5-0316-45cc-b9e0-292cce841cda.yaml identifier: 7418d1d5-0316-45cc-b9e0-292cce841cda uri: /reference/7418d1d5-0316-45cc-b9e0-292cce841cda - attrs: Author: 'Cavole, Leticia M.; Alyssa M. Demko; Rachel E. Diner; Ashlyn Giddings; Irina Koester; Camille M.L.S. Pagniello; Mat-Linn Paulsen; Arturo Ramirez-Valdez; Sarah M. Schwenck; Nicole K. Yen; Michelle E. Zill; Peter J.S. Franks' DOI: 10.5670/oceanog.2016.32 Issue: 2 Journal: Oceanography Pages: 273-285 Title: 'Biological impacts of the 2013–2015 warm-water anomaly in the northeast Pacific: Winners, losers, and the future' Volume: 29 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23739 _uuid: 742ac275-0454-4651-b877-d06b72760d2a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5670/oceanog.2016.32 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/742ac275-0454-4651-b877-d06b72760d2a.yaml identifier: 742ac275-0454-4651-b877-d06b72760d2a uri: /reference/742ac275-0454-4651-b877-d06b72760d2a - attrs: Abstract: 'Fog and low cloud cover (FLCC) strongly influences the water, energy, and nutrient flux of coastal ecosystems. Easy-to-use FLCC data are needed to quantify the impacts of FLCC on ecosystem dynamics especially during hot and dry Mediterranean climate summers. Monthly, annual, and decadal FLCC digital maps (indices) were derived for June–September 1999–2009 for coastal California, latitude 34.50°N (south of Monterey Bay) to latitude 41.95°N (north of Crescent City) from 26,000 hourly night and day Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images. Monthly average FLCC ranges from <2 to 18 hours per day (h/d). Average FLCC over the ocean increases from north (9 h/d) to south (14 h/d), whereas on land, FLCC is highest where land juts into the prevailing NW winds and is lowest in the lee of major capes. FLCC advects farthest inland through low-lying NW ocean-facing valleys. At night, average total hours of FLCC are higher more frequently on land than over the ocean. The interannual FLCC coefficient of variation shows long-term geographic stability that is strongly associated with landform position. FLCC hours per day mapped contours, derived from decadal average FLCC, delineate the commonly used term “fog belt” into FLCC zones with increased locational precision. FLCC indices are available for download from the California Landscape Conservation Cooperative Climate Commons website (; http://climate.calcommons.org/datasets/summertime-fog; ). FLCC indices can improve analyses of biogeographic and bioclimatic species distribution models; understanding meteorological mechanisms driving FLCC patterns; solar energy feasibility studies; investigations of ecohydrology, evapotranspiration, and agricultural irrigation demand; and viticulture ripening models.' Author: 'Torregrosa, Alicia; Combs, Cindy; Peters, Jeff' DOI: 10.1002/2015EA000119 Issue: 2 Journal: Earth and Space Science Pages: 46-67 Title: GOES-derived fog and low cloud indices for coastal north and central California ecological analyses Volume: 3 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25987 _uuid: 753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2015EA000119 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89.yaml identifier: 753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89 uri: /reference/753f4b51-bd4f-49c4-b519-0789b10b1a89 - attrs: Abstract: 'The Canadian prairie provinces of Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta have reported the highest human incidence of clinical cases of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Canada. The primary vector for WVN in this region is the mosquito Culex tarsalis. This study used constructed models and biological thresholds to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of Cx. tarsalis and WNV infection rate in the prairie provinces under a range of potential future climate and habitat conditions. We selected one median and two extreme outcome scenarios to represent future climate conditions in the 2020 (2010-2039), 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) time slices. In currently endemic regions, the projected WNV infection rate under the median outcome scenario in 2050 raised 17.91 times (ranged from 1.29-27.45 times for all scenarios and time slices) comparing to current climate conditions. Seasonal availability of Cx. tarsalis infected with WNV extended from June to August to include May and September. Moreover, our models predicted northward range expansion for Cx. tarsalis (1.06-2.56 times the current geographic area) and WNV (1.08-2.34 times the current geographic area). These findings predict future public and animal health risk of WNV in the Canadian prairie provinces.' Author: 'Chen, C. C.; Jenkins, E.; Epp, T.; Waldner, C.; Curry, P. S.; Soos, C.' DOI: 10.3390/ijerph10073052 Database Provider: 'CCII Web of Science ' Date: Jul ISSN: 1660-4601 Issue: 7 Journal: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Keywords: West Nile virus; Culex tarsalis; climate change; Canadian prairies; spatial and temporal distribution; habitat; culex-tarsalis diptera; infectious-diseases; vector-borne; boreal; forest; culicidae; california; canada; risk; transmission; temperature Language: English NIHMSID: ' NIEHS' Name of Database: ' ' Notes: "Times Cited: 0\rChen, Chen C. Jenkins, Emily Epp, Tasha Waldner, Cheryl Curry, Philip S. Soos, Catherine\rPilot Infectious Disease Impact and Response System (PIDIRS)/program of Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)\rWe thank the Pilot Infectious Disease Impact and Response System (PIDIRS)/program of Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) for their funding support, and Environment Canada (climate) and Public Health Division of Manitoba Health (mosquito) for providing data.\rMdpi ag\rBasel" Pages: 3052-3071 Research Notes: 'CCII Unique - PDF retrieved ' Title: Climate change and West Nile virus in a highly endemic region of North America Type of Article: Article Volume: 10 Year: 2013 _record_number: 4219 _uuid: 75a73642-5567-4768-810c-ba889b2d38a4 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3390/ijerph10073052 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/75a73642-5567-4768-810c-ba889b2d38a4.yaml identifier: 75a73642-5567-4768-810c-ba889b2d38a4 uri: /reference/75a73642-5567-4768-810c-ba889b2d38a4 - attrs: Author: 'van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Lalemand, Laura B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Kane, Jeffrey M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.028 Date: 2016/11/01/ ISSN: 0378-1127 Journal: Forest Ecology and Management Keywords: Fire effects; Fire modeling; Forest management; Fuels treatments Pages: 265-272 Title: Duration of fuels reduction following prescribed fire in coniferous forests of U.S. national parks in California and the Colorado Plateau Volume: 379 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23876 _uuid: 76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.028 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8.yaml identifier: 76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 uri: /reference/76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 - attrs: Abstract: "We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets." Author: 'Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A.' DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002670 Issue: D14 Journal: 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres' Pages: 4407 Title: 'Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century' Volume: 108 Year: 2003 _record_number: 26380 _uuid: 777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2002JD002670 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263.yaml identifier: 777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 uri: /reference/777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 - attrs: Author: 'Funayama, Kota; Hines, Ellen; Davis, Jerry; Allen, Sarah' DOI: 10.1002/aqc.2318 ISSN: 1099-0755 Issue: 2 Journal: 'Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems' Keywords: elephant seals; Mirounga angustirostris; habitat management; marine protected areas; habitat modelling; climate change; sea-level rise Pages: 233-245 Title: 'Effects of sea-level rise on northern elephant seal breeding habitat at Point Reyes Peninsula, California' Volume: 23 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23765 _uuid: 78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/aqc.2318 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d.yaml identifier: 78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d uri: /reference/78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Moritz, M.A.\rParisien, M.A.\rBatllori, E.\rKrawchuk, M.A.\rVan Dorn, J.\rGanz, D.J.\rHayhoe, K." DOI: 10.1890/ES11-00345.1 ISSN: 2150-8925 Issue: 6 Journal: Ecosphere Pages: 1-22 Title: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity URL: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/ES11-00345.1 Volume: 3 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","RG 5 Southwest","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2088 _uuid: 78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/ES11-00345.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8.yaml identifier: 78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 uri: /reference/78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 - attrs: Author: 'Marshall, Kristin N.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Hodgson, Emma E.; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D. Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E.; Harvey, Chris J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13594 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 4 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: California Current; climate change; ecosystem model; fisheries; ocean acidification; risk assessment Pages: 1525-1539 Title: 'Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: Ecosystem model projections' Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 24880 _uuid: 79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13594 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28.yaml identifier: 79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 uri: /reference/79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Ortiz, Beverly R.' Conference Location: 'Rohnert Park, CA' Conference Name: "Sixth Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Today's Challenges, Tomorrow's Opportunities" Editor: 'Adina Merenlender; Douglas McCreary; Kathryn L. Purcell ' Notes: General Technical Report PSW-GTR-217 Pages: 39-56 Place Published: 'Albany, CA' Publisher: U.S. Department of Agriculture Title: 'Contemporary California Indians, oaks, and sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum)' URL: https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr217/psw_gtr217_39.pdf Year: 2008 _record_number: 23928 _uuid: 7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/8cd9688c-6d87-4c82-aafe-3acd17446327 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935.yaml identifier: 7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 uri: /reference/7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 - attrs: Abstract: 'While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.' Author: 'Brown, Heidi E.; Alex Young; Joceline Lega; Theodore G. Andreadis; Jessica Schurich; Andrew Comrie' DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-15-0008.1 Issue: 18 Journal: Earth Interactions Keywords: 'Ecological models,Disease,Ecological models,Local effects' Pages: 1-18 Title: Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West Nile virus vectors Volume: 19 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23667 _uuid: 7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/ei-d-15-0008.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08.yaml identifier: 7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 uri: /reference/7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Howitt, Richard; Duncan MacEwan; Josué Medellín-Azuara; Jay Lund; Daniel Sumner' Institution: 'University of California-Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences' Pages: 28 Place Published: 'Davis, CA' Title: Economic analysis of the 2015 drought for California agriculture URL: https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/biblio/Final_Drought%20Report_08182015_Full_Report_WithAppendices.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 23948 _uuid: 7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/economic-analysis-2015-drought-california-agriculture href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289.yaml identifier: 7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 uri: /reference/7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 - attrs: .publisher: Springer Netherlands .reference_type: 0 Alternate Journal: Climatic Change Author: 'Dittmer, Kyle' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0745-0 Date: October 2013 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Language: English Pages: 627-641 Title: Changing streamflow on Columbia basin tribal lands—Climate change and salmon URL: http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0745-0.pdf Volume: 120 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 12: Indigenous FINAL","Ch. 1: Overview FINAL"]' _record_number: 3906 _uuid: 7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-013-0745-0 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca.yaml identifier: 7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca uri: /reference/7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Knowlton, K.\rRotkin-Ellman, M.\rKing, G.\rMargolis, H.G.\rSmith, D.\rSolomon, G.\rTrent, R.\rEnglish, P." DOI: 10.1289/ehp.11594 ISSN: 0091-6765 Issue: 1 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 61-67 Title: 'The 2006 California heat wave: Impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits' URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627866/pdf/EHP-117-61.pdf Volume: 117 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL","Overview"]' _record_number: 19 _uuid: 7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.11594 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510.yaml identifier: 7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 uri: /reference/7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hess, Jeremy J.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306796 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 11 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 1209-1215 Title: 'Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a nationally representative sample' Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 16112 _uuid: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1306796 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66.yaml identifier: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 uri: /reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/08/02 Author: "Das, T.\rHidalgo, H. G.\rPierce, D. W.\rBarnett, T. P.\rDettinger, M. D.\rCayan, D. R.\rBonfils, C.\rBala, G.\rMirin, A." DOI: 10.1175/2009jhm1095.1 Date: 2009/08/01 ISSN: 1525-755X Issue: 4 Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology Pages: 871-892 Title: Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JHM1095.1 Volume: 10 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 4106 _uuid: 7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2009jhm1095.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86.yaml identifier: 7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 uri: /reference/7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Albertine, Jennifer M.; Manning, William J.; DaCosta, Michelle; Stinson, Kristina A.; Muilenberg, Michael L.; Rogers, Christine A.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111712 ISSN: 1932-6203 Issue: 11 Journal: PLoS ONE Pages: e111712 Title: Projected carbon dioxide to increase grass pollen and allergen exposure despite higher ozone levels Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch3 _record_number: 16124 _uuid: 7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0111712 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f.yaml identifier: 7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f uri: /reference/7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f - attrs: Author: 'Luo, Lifeng; Apps, Deanna; Arcand, Samuel; Xu, Huating; Pan, Ming; Hoerling, Martin' DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072027 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 7 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: drought; temperature anomaly; precipitation deficit; snowpack Pages: 3184-3192 Title: Contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the California drought during 2012–2015 Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23812 _uuid: 7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016GL072027 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30.yaml identifier: 7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 uri: /reference/7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 - attrs: Abstract: 'Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model-based projections of 21st-Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.' Author: 'Chavarria, Shaleene B.; Gutzler, David S.' DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12640 Issue: 3 Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association Pages: 644-659 Title: Observed changes in climate and streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande basin Volume: 54 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25961 _uuid: 7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/1752-1688.12640 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d.yaml identifier: 7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d uri: /reference/7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d - attrs: Abstract: Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Author: 'Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.; Lamsal, Aashis; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.' DOI: 10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 Date: December 01 ISSN: 1572-9761 Issue: 10 Journal: Landscape Ecology Pages: 1943-1957 Title: 'Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: A case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 30 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21979 _uuid: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc.yaml identifier: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc uri: /reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc - attrs: Author: 'Westerling, Anthony LeRoy' DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 Journal: 'Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences' Pages: 20150178 Title: 'Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring' Volume: 371 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21942 _uuid: 80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d.yaml identifier: 80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d uri: /reference/80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d - attrs: Author: 'McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2873 Date: 03//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 3 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 295-300 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21972 _uuid: 811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2873 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0.yaml identifier: 811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 uri: /reference/811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Changes in the amount and timing of snowmelt have large effects on water for society and ecosystems. Using long-term records from across the western United States, we demonstrate that atmospheric humidity is a major control on how seasonal snow responds to warming temperatures. Specifically, we observe an increase in the frequency and magnitude of episodic winter melt events under higher humidity that may alter the timing of water availability. In lower-humidity regions, however, warming is associated with increased sublimation and/or evaporation from the snowpack further reducing the amount of available water in these dry regions. Management approaches to address these changes in snowmelt water resources from continued warming will require improved estimation of variable and changing atmospheric humidity.Climate change is altering historical patterns of snow accumulation and melt, threatening societal frameworks for water supply. However, decreases in spring snow water equivalent (SWE) and changes in snowmelt are not ubiquitous despite widespread warming in the western United States, highlighting the importance of latent and radiant energy fluxes in snow ablation. Here we demonstrate how atmospheric humidity and solar radiation interact with warming temperature to control snowpack ablation at 462 sites spanning a gradient in mean winter temperature from −8.9 to +2.9 °C. The most widespread response to warming was an increase in episodic, midwinter ablation events. Under humid conditions these ablation events were dominated by melt, averaging 21% (202 mm/year) of SWE. Winter ablation under dry atmospheric conditions at similar temperatures was smaller, averaging 12% (58 mm/year) of SWE and likely dominated by sublimation fluxes. These contrasting patterns result from the critical role that atmospheric humidity plays in local energy balance, with latent and longwave radiant fluxes cooling the snowpack under dry conditions and warming it under humid conditions. Similarly, spring melt rates were faster under humid conditions, yet the second most common trend was a reduction in spring melt rates associated with earlier initiation when solar radiation inputs are smaller. Our analyses demonstrate that regional differences in atmospheric humidity are a major cause of the spatial variability in snowpack response to warming. Better constraints on humidity will be critical to predicting both the amount and timing of surface water supplies under climate change.' Author: 'Harpold, Adrian A.; Brooks, Paul D.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1716789115 Issue: 6 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 1215-1220 Title: Humidity determines snowpack ablation under a warming climate Volume: 115 Year: 2018 _record_number: 26363 _uuid: 81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1716789115 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe.yaml identifier: 81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe uri: /reference/81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Maupin, Molly A.; Joan F. Kenny; Susan S. Hutson; John K. Lovelace; Nancy L. Barber; Kristin S. Linsey ' DOI: 10.3133/cir1405 Institution: U.S. Geological Survey Pages: 56 Place Published: 'Reston, VA' Series Volume: USGC Circular 1405 Title: Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2010 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21508 _uuid: 81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e reftype: Report child_publication: /report/estimated-use-water-united-states-2010 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e.yaml identifier: 81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e uri: /reference/81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e - attrs: Abstract: 'Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century.' Author: 'Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Pierce, David W.' DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3 Date: May 01 ISSN: 1432-0894 Issue: 9-10 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 3853-3864 Title: Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US Type of Article: journal article Volume: 50 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25968 _uuid: 81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff.yaml identifier: 81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff uri: /reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate warming poses two major challenges for birds: exposure to higher temperatures and disruption of the synchrony between nesting and resource emergence. To cope, birds are expected to track temperature by moving to cooler areas and to track resource emergence by breeding earlier. We show that these two responses are intertwined. Earlier breeding can substitute for range shifts by reducing temperatures during critical breeding-season life-history events. We show that early-summer temperatures affect nesting success in North American birds and that Californian birds breed ∼1 wk earlier today than a century ago. Thus, without shifting geographically, birds now nest at similar temperatures as they did a century ago, which might reshape both the need and the opportunity for range shifts.Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5–12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.' Author: 'Socolar, Jacob B.; Epanchin, Peter N.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Tingley, Morgan W.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705897114 Issue: 49 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 12976-12981 Title: Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25983 _uuid: 820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1705897114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1.yaml identifier: 820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 uri: /reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 - attrs: Abstract: 'High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003–2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We quantified tree mortality from harvest using data from US Forest Service reports. In both cases, we used Monte Carlo analyses to track uncertainty associated with parameter error and temporal variability. Regional tree mortality from harvest, beetles, and fires (MORT H+B+F ) together averaged 45.8 ± 16.0 Tg AGC yr −1 (±95% confidence interval), indicating a mortality rate of 1.10 ± 0.38% yr −1 . Harvest accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F (∼50%), followed by beetles (∼32%), and fires (∼18%). Tree mortality from harvest was concentrated in Washington and Oregon, where harvest accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F in each state. Tree mortality from beetles occurred widely at low levels across the region, yet beetles had pronounced impacts in Colorado and Montana, where they accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F . Tree mortality from fires was highest in California, though fires accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F in Arizona and New Mexico (∼50%). Drought and human activities shaped regional variation in tree mortality, highlighting opportunities and challenges to managing GHG emissions from forests. Rising temperatures and greater risk of drought will likely increase tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during coming decades in this region. Thus, sustained monitoring and mapping of tree mortality is necessary to inform forest and GHG management.' Author: 'Berner, Logan T.; Beverly E. Law; Arjan J. H. Meddens; Jeffrey A. Hicke' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 6 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 065005 Title: 'Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003–2012)' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23664 _uuid: 8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1.yaml identifier: 8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 uri: /reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'TCCP,' Institution: 'Tribal Climate Change Profile (TCCP) Project, University of Oregon' Pages: 6 Place Published: 'Eugene, OR' Title: 'Tribal Climate Change Profile. Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians: Climate Change and Environmental Management Programs' URL: http://www7.nau.edu/itep/main/tcc/docs/tribes/tribes_Chumash.pdf Year: 2013 _record_number: 23944 _uuid: 826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/tribal-climate-change-profile-santa-ynez-band-chumash-indians-climate-change-environmental-management-programs href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358.yaml identifier: 826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358 uri: /reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'City of San Francisco,' Institution: City and County of San Francisco Notes: 'Broader web site: ' Pages: various Place Published: 'San Francisco, CA' Title: Sea Level Rise Action Plan URL: http://default.sfplanning.org/plans-and-programs/planning-for-the-city/sea-level-rise/160309_SLRAP_Final_ED.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23959 _uuid: 82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb reftype: Report child_publication: /report/sea-level-rise-action-plan href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb.yaml identifier: 82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb uri: /reference/82b84134-2a64-4012-8d88-31bee34874bb - attrs: Author: 'North, M. P.; Stephens, S. L.; Collins, B. M.; Agee, J. K.; Aplet, G.; Franklin, J. F.; Fulé, P. Z.' DOI: 10.1126/science.aab2356 Issue: 6254 Journal: Science Pages: 1280-1281 Title: Reform forest fire management Volume: 349 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23837 _uuid: 82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.aab2356 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6.yaml identifier: 82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6 uri: /reference/82c292bd-b80a-425b-8300-23330807b4f6 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience rising sea levels over the next century. During the last several decades, the upward historical trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have been approximately 20 cm/century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. In the next several decades, warming produced by climate model simulations indicates that sea level rise (SLR) could substantially exceed the rate experienced during modern human development along the California coast and estuaries. A range of future SLR is estimated from a set of climate simulations governed by lower (B1), middle–upper (A2), and higher (A1fi) GHG emission scenarios. Projecting SLR from the ocean warming in GCMs, observational evidence of SLR, and separate calculations using a simple climate model yields a range of potential sea level increases, from 11 to 72 cm, by the 2070–2099 period. The combination of predicted astronomical tides with projected weather forcing, El Niño related variability, and secular SLR, gives a series of hourly sea level projections for 2005–2100. Gradual sea level rise progressively worsens the impacts of high tides, surge and waves resulting from storms, and also freshwater floods from Sierra and coastal mountain catchments. The occurrence of extreme sea levels is pronounced when these factors coincide. The frequency and magnitude of extreme events, relative to current levels, follows a sharply escalating pattern as the magnitude of future sea level rise increases.' Author: "Cayan, D.R.\rBromirski, P.D.\rHayhoe, K.\rTyree, M.\rDettinger, M.D.\rFlick, R.E." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 1 Supplement Journal: Climatic Change Keywords: Earth and Environmental Science Pages: 57-73 Title: Climate change projections of sea level extremes along the California coast Volume: 87 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL"]' _record_number: 323 _uuid: 83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-007-9376-7 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742.yaml identifier: 83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742 uri: /reference/83265c54-8988-42a0-a194-11744d0e1742 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'California Energy Commission,' Place Published: 'Sacramento, CA' Title: 'California Electrical Energy Generation [web site]' URL: http://www.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/electricity_generation.html; . Year: 2018 _record_number: 26404 _uuid: 8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/c7746707-90e0-48aa-8aef-6392cbe6896c href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4.yaml identifier: 8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4 uri: /reference/8347d2b2-855d-4765-b7a2-6d2a9e0c99f4 - attrs: Author: 'Smith, R. G.; Knight, R.; Chen, J.; Reeves, J. A.; Zebker, H. A.; Farr, T.; Liu, Z.' DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019861 ISSN: 1944-7973 Issue: 3 Journal: Water Resources Research Keywords: InSAR; subsidence; groundwater; 1835 Hydrogeophysics; 1829 Groundwater hydrology; 1855 Remote sensing Pages: 2133-2148 Title: 'Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California' Volume: 53 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23858 _uuid: 836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016WR019861 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3.yaml identifier: 836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3 uri: /reference/836f1c9d-7866-4a78-9aca-c10ddce687a3 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Rising Voices,' Institution: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Pages: 21 Place Published: 'Boulder, CO' Title: 'Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability: Bringing Together Science and Indigenous Ways of Knowing to Create Positive Solutions (Rising Voices 2 Workshop Report)' URL: https://risingvoices.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/rv2_full_workshop_report_2014.pdf Year: 2014 _record_number: 23924 _uuid: 83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be reftype: Report child_publication: /report/adaptation-climate-change-variability-bringing-together-science-indigenous-ways-knowing-create-positive-solutions-rising-voices-2-workshop-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be.yaml identifier: 83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be uri: /reference/83a76545-f6df-4797-99f1-2eee3dd768be - attrs: Author: 'McDonnell, William F.; Abbey, David E.; Nishino, Naomi; Lebowitz, Michael D.' DOI: 10.1006/enrs.1998.3894 Date: 1999/02/01/ ISSN: 0013-9351 Issue: 2 Journal: Environmental Research Keywords: asthma; ozone; air pollution; epidemiology. Pages: 110-121 Title: 'Long-term ambient ozone concentration and the incidence of asthma in nonsmoking adults: The Ahsmog study' Volume: 80 Year: 1999 _record_number: 23821 _uuid: 83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1006/enrs.1998.3894 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b.yaml identifier: 83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b uri: /reference/83c1c095-1738-4258-a936-1468e078b57b - attrs: Abstract: 'Although biotic responses to contemporary climate change are spatially pervasive and often reflect synergies between climate and other ecological disturbances, the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat extent for species persistence remains poorly understood. To address this shortcoming, we performed surveys for American pikas (Ochotona princeps) at > 910 locations in 3 geographic regions of western North America during 2014 and 2015, complementing earlier modern (1994–2013) and historical (1898–1990) surveys. We sought to compare extirpation rates and the relative importance of climatic factors versus habitat area for pikas in a mainland-versus-islands framework. In each region, we found widespread evidence of distributional loss—local extirpations, upslope retractions, and encounter of only old sign. Locally comprehensive surveys suggest extirpation of O. princeps from 5 of 9 new sites from the hydrographic Great Basin and from 11 of 29 sites in northeastern California. Although American pikas were recorded as recently as 2011 in Zion National Park and in 2012 from Cedar Breaks National Monument in Utah, O. princeps now appears extirpated from all reported localities in both park units. Multiple logistic regressions for each region suggested that both temperature-related and water-balance-related variables estimated from DAYMET strongly explained pika persistence at sites in the Great Basin and in Utah but not in the Sierra-Cascade “mainland” portion of northeastern California. Conversely, talus-habitat area did not predict American pika persistence in the Great Basin or Utah but strongly predicted persistence in the Sierra-Cascade mainland. These results not only add new areas to our understanding of long-term trend of the American pika’s distribution, but also can inform decisions regarding allocation of conservation effort and management actions. Burgeoning research on species such as O. princeps has collectively demonstrated the heterogeneity and nuance with which climate can act on the distribution of mountain-dwelling mammals.Aunque las respuestas bióticas al cambio climático contemporáneo son espacialmente generalizadas y frecuentemente reflejan sinergias entre el clima y otros disturbios ecológicos, la importancia relativa de factores climáticos frente al área de hábitat para el mantenimiento de especies sigue siendo poco conocida. Para subsanar esta deficiencia, realizamos muestreos de la pika Americana (Ochotona princeps) en más de 910 sitios en 3 regiones geográficas del oeste de Norteamérica durante 2014 y 2015, complementando muestreos realizados en tiempos recientes (1994–2013) e históricos (1898–1990). Comparamos las tasas de extirpación para dilucidar la importancia relativa de los factores climáticos con respeto al área del hábitat disponible de las pikas bajo un marco conceptual de áreas continentales frente a zonas aisladas. En cada región, encontramos amplia evidencia en la pérdida de área de distribución - extinciones locales, desapariciones de las zonas bajas, y encuentro sólo de evidencia de ocupación pasada. Estudios localmente exhaustivos sugieren la extirpación de O. princeps en 5 de las 9 localidades nuevas muestreadas de la Gran Cuenca Hidrográfica (Great Basin), y en 11 de las 29 localidades en el noreste de California. Aunque las pikas todavía se encontraban en fechas recientes como en 2011 en el Parque Nacional Zion y en el Monumento Nacional Cedar Breaks en Utah en 2012, O. princeps ahora parece extirpada de todas las localidades donde fue encontrada anteriormente en ambos parques. Regresiones logísticas múltiples para cada región basados en factores ambientales como la temperatura y los factores relacionados con el balance del agua (ambos estimados por el DAYMET) explicaron claramente el patrón de persistencia de la pika en localidades de la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero no en el noreste de California, en el área “continental” de la montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades. Por el contrario, el hábitat de talud no p edijo la persistencia de la pika en los sitios aislados en la Gran Cuenca y en Utah, pero lo predijo significativamente en el área continental (i.e., en las montañas de Sierra Nevada y Cascades). Estos resultados incrementan el conocimiento sobre la distribución histórica y la tendencia a largo plazo de la pika Americana. Este conocimiento también puede ayudar en la toma de decisiones sobre las prioridades en las acciones en conservación y manejo. El avance en conjunto en investigaciones de especies como O. princeps ha demostrado la heterogeneidad y la forma con que el clima actúa de diferente manera sobre la distribución de los mamíferos de montaña.' Author: 'Beever, Erik A.; Perrine, John D.; Rickman, Tom; Flores, Mary; Clark, John P.; Waters, Cassie; Weber, Shana S.; Yardley, Braden; Thoma, David; Chesley-Preston, Tara; Goehring, Kenneth E.; Magnuson, Michael; Nordensten, Nancy; Nelson, Melissa; Collins, Gail H.' DOI: 10.1093/jmammal/gyw128 ISSN: 0022-2372 Issue: 6 Journal: Journal of Mammalogy Notes: 10.1093/jmammal/gyw128 Pages: 1495-1511 Title: 'Pika (Ochotona princeps) losses from two isolated regions reflect temperature and water balance, but reflect habitat area in a mainland region' Volume: 97 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23724 _uuid: 83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/jmammal/gyw128 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f.yaml identifier: 83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f uri: /reference/83e4ade9-14c6-40b4-ae82-508e72e0597f - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Rockman, Marcy; Morgan, Marissa; Ziaja, Sonya; Hambrecht, George; Meadow, Alison' Institution: 'Cultural Resources, Partnerships, and Science and Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service' Keywords: Climate change; Cultural Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Title: Cultural Resources Climate Change Strategy URL: https://www.nps.gov/subjects/climatechange/upload/NPS-2016_Cultural-Resoures-Climate-Change-Strategy.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 22827 _uuid: 83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/cultural-resources-climate-change-strategy href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740.yaml identifier: 83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740 uri: /reference/83f70578-19a7-4a1c-a2af-92f1c28f5740 - attrs: Article Number: art98 Author: 'Mazer, Susan J.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Matthews, Elizabeth R.; Evenden, Angela' DOI: 10.1890/ES14-00433.1 ISSN: 2150-8925 Issue: 6 Journal: Ecosphere Keywords: Baccharis pilularis; California Phenology Project; citizen science; climate change; Eriogonum fasciculatum; first flowering date; phenology; phenological response; phenophase; Quercus lobata; Sambucus nigra; USA National Phenology Network Pages: 1-27 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: Species-specific phenological responses to winter temperature and precipitation in a water-limited ecosystem Volume: 6 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23685 _uuid: 846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/ES14-00433.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca.yaml identifier: 846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca uri: /reference/846ee6e9-5136-4423-8aaf-d9daf73352ca - attrs: Abstract: 'BackgroundExertional heat illness (EHI) affects military personnel, athletes and occupational groups such as agricultural workers, despite knowledge of preventive measures.AimsTo evaluate EHI diagnoses during US Army basic training and its associations with fitness and body fat on entering military service.MethodsFrom February 2005 to September 2006, US Army recruits at six different military entrance stations took a pre-accession fitness test, including a 5-min step test scored as pass or fail. Subsequent EHI incidence and incidence rate ratios were analysed with reference to subjects’ fitness (step test performance) and whether they met (weight qualified [WQ]) or exceeded body fat (EBF) standards.ResultsAmong the 8621 WQ and 834 EBF male subjects, there were 67 incidents of EHI within 180 days of entering military service. Among WQ subjects, step test failure was significantly associated with EHI (odds ratio [OR] 2.00, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 3.53). For those passing the step test, the risk of EHI was significantly higher in EBF than in WQ subjects (OR 3.98, 95% CI 2.17, 7.29). Expected ORs for the joint effects of step test failure and EBF classification under additive and multiplicative models were 4.98 and 7.96, respectively. There were too few women to evaluate their data in detail.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that fitness and body fat are independently associated with incident EHI, and the effect of both was substantially higher. Those with low fitness levels and/or obesity should be evaluated further before engaging in intense physical activity, especially in warmer months.' Author: 'Bedno, S. A.; Urban, N.; Boivin, M. R.; Cowan, D. N.' DOI: 10.1093/occmed/kqu062 ISSN: 0962-7480 Issue: 6 Journal: Occupational Medicine Notes: 10.1093/occmed/kqu062 Pages: 461-467 Title: 'Fitness, obesity and risk of heat illness among army trainees' Volume: 64 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23723 _uuid: 852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1093/occmed/kqu062 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308.yaml identifier: 852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308 uri: /reference/852e2333-496f-4c49-afed-3d3c57d33308 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Redsteer, M.; Hiza, Bemis; Chief, K.D.; Gautam, M.; Middleton, B.R.; Tsosie, R.' Book Title: 'Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment' Editor: 'Garfin, Greg; Jardine, Angie; Overpeck, Jonathan' Pages: 385-404 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: Island Press Title: 'Unique challenges facing southwestern Tribes: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation' Year: 2013 _record_number: 18271 _uuid: 85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce.yaml identifier: 85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce uri: /reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce - attrs: Author: 'Bednaršek, N.; Feely, R. A.; Reum, J. C. P.; Peterson, B.; Menkel, J.; Alin, S. R.; Hales, B.' DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 Issue: 1785 Journal: 'Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences' Title: Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem Type of Article: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 Volume: 281 Year: 2014 _record_number: 22171 _uuid: 861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a.yaml identifier: 861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a uri: /reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a - attrs: Author: 'Young, Kristina E.; Grover, Henry S.; Bowker, Matthew A.' DOI: 10.1111/nph.13910 Issue: 1 Journal: New Phytologist Pages: 18-22 Title: Altering biocrusts for an altered climate Volume: 210 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26407 _uuid: 8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/nph.13910 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45.yaml identifier: 8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 uri: /reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Hutto, Sara V.; Kelley D. Higgason; Jessi M. Kershner; Whitney A. Reynier; Darrell S. Gregg ' Institution: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries' Pages: 475 Place Published: 'Silver Spring, MD' Series Volume: Marine Sanctuaries Conservation Series ONMS-15-02 Title: 'Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean ' URL: https://nmssanctuaries.blob.core.windows.net/sanctuaries-prod/media/archive/science/conservation/pdfs/vulnerability-assessment-gfnms.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 23947 _uuid: 868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-vulnerability-assessment-north-central-california-coast-ocean href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36.yaml identifier: 868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 uri: /reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Flessa, Karl; Eloise Kendy; Karen Schlatter' Institution: University of Arizona (for the International Boundary and Water Commission) Pages: 78 Place Published: 'Tucson, AZ' Title: 'Minute 319: Colorado River Limitrophe and Delta Environmental Flows Monitoring. Interim Report' URL: https://www.ibwc.gov/Files/Minutes%20319/2016_EFM_InterimReport_Min319.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23954 _uuid: 86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab reftype: Report child_publication: /report/minute-319-colorado-river-limitrophe-delta-environmental-flows-monitoring-interim-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab.yaml identifier: 86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab uri: /reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Salmon Technical Team (STT),' Institution: Pacific Fishery Management Council Pages: 335 Place Published: 'Portland, OR' Title: Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries. Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) document URL: https://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Review_of_2017_Ocean_Salmon_Fisheries_18Final.pdf Year: 2018 _record_number: 26378 _uuid: 8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/review-2017-ocean-salmon-fisheries-stock-assessment-fishery-evaluation-safe-document href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d.yaml identifier: 8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d uri: /reference/8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d - attrs: .publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Janssen, Emily; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Olsen, Seth C.; Goodman, Alex' DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000185 ISSN: 2328-4277 Issue: 2 Journal: Earth’s Future Keywords: Extreme Precipitation; CMIP5; 1637 Regional climate change; 1610 Atmosphere; 1620 Climate dynamics; 1626 Global climate models; 1627 Coupled models of the climate system Pages: 99-113 Title: 'Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States' Volume: 2 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19689 _uuid: 8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013EF000185 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25.yaml identifier: 8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 uri: /reference/8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.' Accession Number: 34 Alternate Journal: Science Author: "Barnett, T.P.\rPierce, D.W.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rBonfils, C.\rSanter, B.D.\rDas, T.\rBala, G.\rWood, A.W.\rNozawa, T.\rMirin, A. A.\rCayan, D.R.\rDettinger, M.D." Author Address: '[Barnett, Tim P.; Pierce, David W.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Das, Tapash; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. [Bonfils, Celine; Santer, Benjamin D.; Bala, Govindasamy; Mirin, Arthur A.] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. [Wood, Andrew W.] Univ Washington, Land Surface Hydrol Res Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. [Nozawa, Toru] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan. [Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.] US Geol Survey, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.; Barnett, TP, Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.; tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu' DOI: 10.1126/science.1152538 Date: Feb ISSN: 0036-8075 Issue: 5866 Journal: Science Keywords: north-america; climate-change; trends; model; attribution; streamflow; snowpack; cycle Language: English Notes: 'ISI Document Delivery No.: 264SW; Times Cited: 69; Cited Reference Count: 29; Barnett, Tim P. Pierce, David W. Hidalgo, Hugo G. Bonfils, Celine Santer, Benjamin D. Das, Tapash Bala, Govindasamy Wood, Andrew W. Nozawa, Toru Mirin, Arthur A. Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D.; Amer assoc advancement science; Washington' Pages: 1080-1083 Title: Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States Type of Article: Article URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1152538 Volume: 319 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 862 _uuid: 87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1152538 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833.yaml identifier: 87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 uri: /reference/87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 - attrs: Author: 'Jacox, Michael G.; Michael A. Alexander; Nathan J. Mantua; James D . Scott; Gaelle Hervieux; Robert S. Webb; Francisco E. Werner' DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0119.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: S27-S33 Title: 'Forcing of multiyear extreme ocean temperatures that impacted California Current living marine resources in 2016 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective"]' Volume: 99 Year: 2018 _record_number: 23790 _uuid: 87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0119.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602.yaml identifier: 87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 uri: /reference/87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 - attrs: Author: 'Guo, Qinghua; Kelly, Maggi; Graham, Catherine H.' DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.07.012 Date: 2005/02/25/ ISSN: 0304-3800 Issue: 1 Journal: Ecological Modelling Keywords: Geographic information systems; Support vector machines; Potential disease spread; Sudden Oak Death Pages: 75-90 Title: Support vector machines for predicting distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California Volume: 182 Year: 2005 _record_number: 23773 _uuid: 8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.07.012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc.yaml identifier: 8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc uri: /reference/8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Levitus, S.\rAntonov, J.I.\rBoyer, T.P.\rLocarnini, R.A.\rGarcia, H.E.\rMishonov, A.V." DOI: 10.1029/2008GL037155 Issue: 7 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: L07608 Title: Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems Volume: 36 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL"]' _record_number: 778 _uuid: 88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2008GL037155 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215.yaml identifier: 88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 uri: /reference/88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Mai, Trieu; Ryan Wiser; Galen Barbose; Lori Bird; Jenny Heeter; David Keyser; Venkat Krishnan; Jordan Macknick; Dev Millstein' Institution: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Pages: 58 Place Published: 'Golden, CO' Series Volume: NREL/TP-6A20-67455; LBNL-1006962 Title: 'A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards' URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67455.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23937 _uuid: 89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/prospective-analysis-costs-benefits-impacts-us-renewable-portfolio-standards href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64.yaml identifier: 89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 uri: /reference/89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 - attrs: Author: 'Toyofuku, Takashi; Matsuo, Miki Y.; de Nooijer, Lennart Jan; Nagai, Yukiko; Kawada, Sachiko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Tsuchiya, Masashi; Sakaguchi, Hide; Kitazato, Hiroshi' DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14145 Date: 01/27/online Journal: Nature Communications Pages: 14145 Publisher: The Author(s) Title: Proton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera Type of Article: Article Volume: 8 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23700 _uuid: 893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ncomms14145 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d.yaml identifier: 893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d uri: /reference/893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.' Author: 'Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112 Date: 'March 31, 2015' Issue: 13 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3931-3936 Title: Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19545 _uuid: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151.yaml identifier: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 uri: /reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 - attrs: Abstract: 'Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.' Author: 'Woodruff, Sierra C.; Stults, Missy' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3012 Date: 08//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 796-802 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21160 _uuid: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8.yaml identifier: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 uri: /reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 - attrs: Abstract: 'Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type, there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and to significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions, especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, it was found that the number of weight-restriction days between May and September will increase by 50%–200% at four major airports in the United States by 2050–70 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a negative economic effect on the airline industry. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation. Planning for changes in extreme heat events will help the aviation industry to reduce its vulnerability to this aspect of climate change.' Author: 'Coffel, E.; R. Horton' DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-14-00026.1 Issue: 1 Journal: 'Weather, Climate, and Society' Keywords: 'Extreme events,Climate change,Economic value,Societal impacts' Pages: 94-102 Title: Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation Volume: 7 Year: 2015 _record_number: 24541 _uuid: 8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/wcas-d-14-00026.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607.yaml identifier: 8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 uri: /reference/8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 - attrs: Author: 'van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2903 Date: 04//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 4 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 375-380 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21334 _uuid: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2903 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572.yaml identifier: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 uri: /reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Smith, Joel B.; Richels, Richard; Miller, Barbara' Book Title: 'Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change' Editor: USGCRP Pages: 219-249 Place Published: 'Cambridge, UK and New York, NY' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Title: Potential consequences of climate variaility and change for the western United States Year: 2001 _record_number: 23920 _uuid: 8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-change-impacts-on-united-states-potential-consequences-climate-variability-change-report-us-global-change-research-program href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d.yaml identifier: 8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d uri: /reference/8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d - attrs: Author: 'Xiao, Mu; Koppa, Akash; Mekonnen, Zelalem; Pagán, Brianna R.; Zhan, Shengan; Cao, Qian; Aierken, Abureli; Lee, Hyongki; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.' DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073333 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 10 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: groundwater loss; Central Valley; water balance; 1829 Groundwater hydrology; 1876 Water budgets Pages: 4872-4879 Title: How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought? Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21388 _uuid: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL073333 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff.yaml identifier: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff uri: /reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Reid, Colleen E.; Mann, Jennifer K.; Alfasso, Ruth; English, Paul B.; King, Galatea C.; Lincoln, Rebecca A.; Margolis, Helene G.; Rubado, Dan J.; Sabato, Joseph E.; West, Nancy L.; Woods, Brian; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Balmes, J. R.' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103766 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 5 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 715-720 Title: 'Evaluation of a heat vulnerability index on abnormally hot days: An environmental public health tracking study' URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3346770/pdf/ehp.1103766.pdf Volume: 120 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 4227 _uuid: 8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1103766 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765.yaml identifier: 8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 uri: /reference/8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Westerling, A.L.\rBryant, B.P.\rPreisler, H.K.\rHolmes, T.P.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rDas, T.\rShrestha, S.R." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 1 supplement Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 445-463 Title: Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire Volume: 109 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","RG 5 Southwest"]' _record_number: 3395 _uuid: 8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d.yaml identifier: 8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d uri: /reference/8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical downscaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method.' Author: "Bonfils, C.\rSanter, B.D.\rPierce, D.W.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rBala, G.\rDas, T.\rBarnett, T.P.\rCayan, D.R.\rDoutriaux, C.\rWood, A.W.\rMirin, A.\rNozawa, T." DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1 ISSN: 1520-0442 Issue: 23 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'Climate models, ; ENSO, ; Pacific decadal oscillation, ; Orographic effects, ; Climate variability' Pages: 6404-6424 Title: Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1 Volume: 21 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","RG 5 Southwest"]' _record_number: 507 _uuid: 8e18883e-9d45-4998-a0dd-bf59bab323ad reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2008JCLI2397.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e18883e-9d45-4998-a0dd-bf59bab323ad.yaml identifier: 8e18883e-9d45-4998-a0dd-bf59bab323ad uri: /reference/8e18883e-9d45-4998-a0dd-bf59bab323ad - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'NOAA,' Place Published: 'Silver Spring, MD' Publisher: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Ocean Service' Title: 'Mean sea level trend: 9414290 San Francisco, California' URL: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9414290 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23931 _uuid: 8e1ab38d-5d31-4a6a-8ad6-e06fe74a4aa1 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/92fcc83c-c31a-46b0-bdd7-99a9070bdda7 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e1ab38d-5d31-4a6a-8ad6-e06fe74a4aa1.yaml identifier: 8e1ab38d-5d31-4a6a-8ad6-e06fe74a4aa1 uri: /reference/8e1ab38d-5d31-4a6a-8ad6-e06fe74a4aa1 - attrs: Author: "Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; Gómez-Dans, José" DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12046 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 1 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: Bromus tectorum; exotic grasses; fire frequency; grass-fire cycle; invasive species; MODIS burned-area product; satellite-based fire data Pages: 173-183 Title: Introduced annual grass increases regional fire activity across the arid western USA (1980–2009) Volume: 19 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23717 _uuid: 8e56543a-5a74-43e9-9ce5-a4170e5b3dde reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.12046 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e56543a-5a74-43e9-9ce5-a4170e5b3dde.yaml identifier: 8e56543a-5a74-43e9-9ce5-a4170e5b3dde uri: /reference/8e56543a-5a74-43e9-9ce5-a4170e5b3dde - attrs: Author: 'Anderson, Dean M.; Estell, Rick E.; Gonzalez, Alfredo L.; Cibils, Andres F.; Torell, L. Allen' DOI: 10.1016/j.rala.2015.01.006 Date: 2015/04/01/ ISSN: 0190-0528 Issue: 2 Journal: Rangelands Keywords: livestock; dry lands; foraging; Mexican cattle Pages: 62-67 Title: 'Criollo cattle: Heritage genetics for arid landscapes' Volume: 37 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23711 _uuid: 8e91f42b-50a5-4b30-a4ce-445f836056c6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.rala.2015.01.006 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8e91f42b-50a5-4b30-a4ce-445f836056c6.yaml identifier: 8e91f42b-50a5-4b30-a4ce-445f836056c6 uri: /reference/8e91f42b-50a5-4b30-a4ce-445f836056c6