--- - attrs: Abstract: 'Over the last century, northeast Pacific coastal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land-based surface air temperatures (SATs) display multidecadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, in addition to a warming trend of ∼0.5–1 °C. Using independent records of sea-level pressure (SLP), SST, and SAT, this study investigates northeast (NE) Pacific coupled atmosphere–ocean variability from 1900 to 2012, with emphasis on the coastal areas around North America. We use a linear stochastic time series model to show that the SST evolution around the NE Pacific coast can be explained by a combination of regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence, accounting for 63% of nonseasonal monthly SST variance (r = 0.79) and 73% of variance in annual means (r = 0.86). We show that SLP reductions and related atmospheric forcing led to century-long warming around the NE Pacific margins, with the strongest trends observed from 1910–1920 to 1940. NE Pacific circulation changes are estimated to account for more than 80% of the 1900–2012 linear warming in coastal NE Pacific SST and US Pacific northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California) SAT. An ensemble of climate model simulations run under the same historical radiative forcings fails to reproduce the observed regional circulation trends. These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.' Author: 'Johnstone, James A.; Mantua, Nathan J.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1318371111 Date: 'October 7, 2014' Issue: 40 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 14360-14365 Title: 'Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900–2012' Volume: 111 Year: 2014 _record_number: 20548 _uuid: 4411e040-3b14-4d03-a44c-1fd33582e496 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1318371111 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4411e040-3b14-4d03-a44c-1fd33582e496.yaml identifier: 4411e040-3b14-4d03-a44c-1fd33582e496 uri: /reference/4411e040-3b14-4d03-a44c-1fd33582e496 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: "Frisvold, G. \rL.E. Jackson \rJ.G. Pritchett \rJ. Ritten" Book Title: 'Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment' Editor: "Garfin, G.\rJardine, A.\rMerideth, R.\rBlack, Mary\rLeRoy, Sarah" ISBN: 9781610914468 Pages: 218-239 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: Island Press Reviewer: 4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 Title: 'Ch. 11: Agriculture and ranching' URL: http://swccar.org/sites/all/themes/files/SW-NCA-color-FINALweb.pdf Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","RF 1"]' _record_number: 57 _uuid: 4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049.yaml identifier: 4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 uri: /reference/4442506b-fbba-41ea-9cef-1eac88ce2049 - attrs: Abstract: 'Declining mountain snowpack and earlier snowmelt across the western United States has implications for downstream communities. We present a possible mechanism linking snowmelt rate and streamflow generation using a gridded implementation of the Budyko framework. We computed an ensemble of Budyko streamflow anomalies (BSAs) using Variable Infiltration Capacity model-simulated evapotranspiration, potential evapotranspiration, and estimated precipitation at 1/16° resolution from 1950 to 2013. BSA was correlated with simulated baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.64) and simulated snowmelt rate (r2 = 0.42). The strong correlation between snowmelt rate and baseflow efficiency (r2 = 0.73) links these relationships and supports a possible streamflow generation mechanism wherein greater snowmelt rates increase subsurface flow. Rapid snowmelt may thus bring the soil to field capacity, facilitating below-root zone percolation, streamflow, and a positive BSA. Previous works have shown that future increases in regional air temperature may lead to earlier, slower snowmelt and hence decreased streamflow production via the mechanism proposed by this work.' Author: 'Barnhart, Theodore B.; Molotch, Noah P.; Livneh, Ben; Harpold, Adrian A.; Knowles, John F.; Schneider, Dominik' DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069690 Issue: 15 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: 8006-8016 Title: Snowmelt rate dictates streamflow Volume: 43 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25958 _uuid: 449cf522-1bde-4f6f-8e24-2d5685ddf235 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016GL069690 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/449cf522-1bde-4f6f-8e24-2d5685ddf235.yaml identifier: 449cf522-1bde-4f6f-8e24-2d5685ddf235 uri: /reference/449cf522-1bde-4f6f-8e24-2d5685ddf235 - attrs: Author: 'Allen, Larry S.' DOI: '10.2111/1551-501X(2006)28[17:CITBTM]2.0.CO;2' Date: 2006/06/01/ ISSN: 0190-0528 Issue: 3 Journal: Rangelands Pages: 17-21 Title: 'Collaboration in the Borderlands: The Malpai Borderlands Group' Volume: 28 Year: 2006 _record_number: 23708 _uuid: 44ce5933-c657-477a-b2d0-91367949a47f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2111/1551-501X(2006)28%5B17:CITBTM%5D2.0.CO;2 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/44ce5933-c657-477a-b2d0-91367949a47f.yaml identifier: 44ce5933-c657-477a-b2d0-91367949a47f uri: /reference/44ce5933-c657-477a-b2d0-91367949a47f - attrs: Author: 'Worfolk, Jean B.' DOI: 10.1067/mgn.2000.107131 Date: 2000/03/01/ ISSN: 0197-4572 Issue: 2 Journal: Geriatric Nursing Pages: 70-77 Title: 'Heat waves: Their impact on the health of elders' Volume: 21 Year: 2000 _record_number: 23888 _uuid: 456f68bb-c834-4003-b130-47c6fd6bb3a7 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1067/mgn.2000.107131 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/456f68bb-c834-4003-b130-47c6fd6bb3a7.yaml identifier: 456f68bb-c834-4003-b130-47c6fd6bb3a7 uri: /reference/456f68bb-c834-4003-b130-47c6fd6bb3a7 - attrs: Author: 'Elias, E. H.; Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Mejia, J. F.; Smith, R.' DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.004 Date: 2015/03/01/ ISSN: 2214-5818 Journal: 'Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies' Keywords: Snowmelt runoff model; Climate change; Upper Rio Grande; Water resources Pages: 525-546 Title: Assessing climate change impacts on water availability of snowmelt-dominated basins of the Upper Rio Grande basin Volume: 3 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23760 _uuid: 4644d099-f5ae-4db5-99b5-8a683b4e1933 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.04.004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4644d099-f5ae-4db5-99b5-8a683b4e1933.yaml identifier: 4644d099-f5ae-4db5-99b5-8a683b4e1933 uri: /reference/4644d099-f5ae-4db5-99b5-8a683b4e1933 - attrs: Author: 'Brookhart, M. Alan; Hubbard, Alan E.; van der Laan, Mark J.; Colford, John M.; Eisenberg, Joseph N. S.' DOI: 10.1002/sim.1258 ISSN: 1097-0258 Issue: 23 Journal: Statistics in Medicine Keywords: mathematical model; profile likelihood; disease transmission; Cryptosporidium; outbreak Pages: 3627-3638 Publisher: 'John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.' Title: 'Statistical estimation of parameters in a disease transmission model: Analysis of a Cryptosporidium outbreak' Volume: 21 Year: 2002 _record_number: 23731 _uuid: 46b92d0e-f9f2-4b12-8b9e-8c27d6a4b9da reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/sim.1258 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/46b92d0e-f9f2-4b12-8b9e-8c27d6a4b9da.yaml identifier: 46b92d0e-f9f2-4b12-8b9e-8c27d6a4b9da uri: /reference/46b92d0e-f9f2-4b12-8b9e-8c27d6a4b9da - attrs: Abstract: 'Studies of multiple taxa across broad-scales suggest that species distributions are shifting poleward in response to global climate change. Recognizing the influence of distribution shifts on population indices will be an important part of interpreting trends within management units because current practice often assumes that changes in local populations reflect local habitat conditions. However, the individual- and population-level processes that drive distribution shifts may occur across a large, regional scale and have little to do with the habitats within the management unit. We examined the latitudinal center of abundance for the winter distributions of six western North America raptor species using Christmas Bird Counts from 1975–2011. Also, we considered whether population indices within western North America Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) were explained by distribution shifts. All six raptors had significant poleward shifts in their wintering distributions over time. Rough-legged Hawks (Buteo lagopus) and Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) showed the fastest rate of change, with 8.41 km yr−1 and 7.74 km yr−1 shifts, respectively. Raptors may be particularly responsive to warming winters because of variable migration tendencies, intraspecific competition for nesting sites that drives males to winter farther north, or both. Overall, 40% of BCR population trend models were improved by incorporating information about wintering distributions; however, support for the effect of distribution on BCR indices varied by species with Rough-legged Hawks showing the most evidence. These results emphasize the importance of understanding how regional distribution shifts influence local-scale population indices. If global climate change is altering distribution patterns, then trends within some management units may not reflect changes in local habitat conditions. The methods used to monitor and manage bird populations within local BCRs will fundamentally change as species experience changes in distribution in response to climate change.' Author: 'Paprocki, Neil; Heath, Julie A.; Novak, Stephen J.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0086814 Issue: 1 Journal: PLOS ONE Pages: e86814 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: 'Regional distribution shifts help explain local changes in wintering raptor abundance: Implications for interpreting population trends' Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _record_number: 23689 _uuid: 46f6dc39-8375-4539-9999-5161f2284c1a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0086814 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/46f6dc39-8375-4539-9999-5161f2284c1a.yaml identifier: 46f6dc39-8375-4539-9999-5161f2284c1a uri: /reference/46f6dc39-8375-4539-9999-5161f2284c1a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Emerging vector-borne diseases are an important issue in global health. Many vector-borne pathogens have appeared in new regions in the past two decades, while many endemic diseases have increased in incidence. Although introductions and emergence of endemic pathogens are often considered to be distinct processes, many endemic pathogens are actually spreading at a local scale coincident with habitat change. We draw attention to key differences between dynamics and disease burden that result from increased pathogen transmission after habitat change and after introduction into new regions. Local emergence is commonly driven by changes in human factors as much as by enhanced enzootic cycles, whereas pathogen invasion results from anthropogenic trade and travel where and when conditions (eg, hosts, vectors, and climate) are suitable for a pathogen. Once a pathogen is established, ecological factors related to vector characteristics can shape the evolutionary selective pressure and result in increased use of people as transmission hosts. We describe challenges inherent in the control of vector-borne zoonotic diseases and some emerging non-traditional strategies that could be effective in the long term.' Author: 'Kilpatrick, A. M.; Randolph, S. E.' Author Address: 'Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064, USA. akilpatr@ucsc.edu' DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61151-9 Date: Dec 1 ISSN: 1474-547X Issue: 9857 Journal: The Lancet Keywords: 'Animals; Blood-Borne Pathogens; Climate Change; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/epidemiology/ prevention & control/transmission; Disease Vectors; Humans; Incidence; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors; Tick Infestations/epidemiology; World Health; Zoonoses/ epidemiology' Language: eng Notes: "Kilpatrick, A Marm Randolph, Sarah E R01 AI090159/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/United States Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. Review England Nihms495681 Lancet. 2012 Dec 1;380(9857):1946-55. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61151-9." PMCID: PMC3739480 Pages: 1946-1955 Title: 'Drivers, dynamics, and control of emerging vector-borne zoonotic diseases' Volume: 380 Year: 2012 _record_number: 4654 _uuid: 48041d66-fd27-4cf6-8155-9a74d3d664dd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61151-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/48041d66-fd27-4cf6-8155-9a74d3d664dd.yaml identifier: 48041d66-fd27-4cf6-8155-9a74d3d664dd uri: /reference/48041d66-fd27-4cf6-8155-9a74d3d664dd - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Editor: 'Maynard, Nancy G.' Number of Pages: 124 Place Published: 'Prior Lake, MN' Publisher: NASA Title: 'Native Peoples - Native Homelands Climate Change Workshop II. Final Report: An Indigenous Response to Climate Change' URL: https://neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/uploads/images_db/NPNH-Report-No-Blanks.pdf Year: 2014 _record_number: 21676 _uuid: 48541a92-1e3e-4539-8122-c802cee93e4a reftype: Edited Book child_publication: /book/native-peoples-native-homelands-climate-change-workshop-ii-final-report-an-indigenous-response-climate-change href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/48541a92-1e3e-4539-8122-c802cee93e4a.yaml identifier: 48541a92-1e3e-4539-8122-c802cee93e4a uri: /reference/48541a92-1e3e-4539-8122-c802cee93e4a - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Griggs, Gary B.' Conference Name: Puget Sound Shorelines and the Impacts of Armoring— Proceedings of a State of the Science Workshop Date: May Editor: 'Shipman, Hugh; Megan N. Dethier; Guy Gelfenbaum; Kurt L. Fresh; Richard S. Dinicola' Notes: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2010–5254 Pages: 77-84 Publisher: U.S. Geological Survey Title: The effects of armoring shorelines—The California experience URL: https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5254/pdf/sir20105254_chap8.pdf Year: 2009 _record_number: 26361 _uuid: 496effe3-aacd-4456-a02a-e717f19ebf72 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/b66f01ec-9abb-4d3f-b19d-9b4bd0926faa href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/496effe3-aacd-4456-a02a-e717f19ebf72.yaml identifier: 496effe3-aacd-4456-a02a-e717f19ebf72 uri: /reference/496effe3-aacd-4456-a02a-e717f19ebf72 - attrs: .reference_type: 16 Author: 'ASCE,' Place Published: 'Reston, VA' Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) Title: 2017 Infrastructure Report Card URL: https://www.infrastructurereportcard.org/ Year: 2017 _record_number: 23710 _uuid: 497411ba-3eb8-42fd-9b01-8c5a21fc6465 reftype: Web Page child_publication: /webpage/59b3544f-c70d-49e5-9f15-6cae6cda159d href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/497411ba-3eb8-42fd-9b01-8c5a21fc6465.yaml identifier: 497411ba-3eb8-42fd-9b01-8c5a21fc6465 uri: /reference/497411ba-3eb8-42fd-9b01-8c5a21fc6465 - attrs: Author: 'La Sorte, Frank A.; Thompson, Frank R., III' DOI: 10.1890/06-1072.1 ISSN: 1939-9170 Issue: 7 Journal: Ecology Keywords: abundance; Christmas Bird Count; common species; distribution of avifauna; geographical range; global climate change; North America; temporal turnover; winter range Pages: 1803-1812 Publisher: Ecological Society of America Title: Poleward shifts in winter ranges of North American birds Volume: 88 Year: 2007 _record_number: 23805 _uuid: 4b5bd341-33e8-4ac5-9341-f4ffc4f6c2ad reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/06-1072.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4b5bd341-33e8-4ac5-9341-f4ffc4f6c2ad.yaml identifier: 4b5bd341-33e8-4ac5-9341-f4ffc4f6c2ad uri: /reference/4b5bd341-33e8-4ac5-9341-f4ffc4f6c2ad - attrs: Author: 'Hoover, Daniel J.; Odigie, Kingsley O.; Swarzenski, Peter W.; Barnard, Patrick' DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.055 Date: 2017/06/01/ ISSN: 2214-5818 Journal: 'Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies' Keywords: Sea-level rise; Groundwater; Coastal aquifer; Inundation projections; Groundwater shoaling; California Pages: 234-249 Title: 'Sea-level rise and coastal groundwater inundation and shoaling at select sites in California, USA' Volume: 11 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23782 _uuid: 4bf832f2-4600-41a3-9d2f-d361052ab69d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.055 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4bf832f2-4600-41a3-9d2f-d361052ab69d.yaml identifier: 4bf832f2-4600-41a3-9d2f-d361052ab69d uri: /reference/4bf832f2-4600-41a3-9d2f-d361052ab69d - attrs: Author: 'Hardin, E.; AghaKouchak, A.; Qomi, M. J. A.; Madani, K.; Tarroja, B.; Zhou, Y.; Yang, T.; Samuelsen, S.' DOI: 10.1016/j.scs.2016.09.004 Date: 2017/01/01/ ISSN: 2210-6707 Journal: Sustainable Cities and Society Keywords: CO emissions; Drought; Energy; Footprint Pages: 450-452 Title: California drought increases CO2 footprint of energy Volume: 28 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23775 _uuid: 4c2f4e56-1de7-4f4c-9f19-d7c51e67d208 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.scs.2016.09.004 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4c2f4e56-1de7-4f4c-9f19-d7c51e67d208.yaml identifier: 4c2f4e56-1de7-4f4c-9f19-d7c51e67d208 uri: /reference/4c2f4e56-1de7-4f4c-9f19-d7c51e67d208 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The causes of the California drought during November–April winters of 2011/12–2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Niño event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Niña event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west–cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.' Author: Richard Seager; Martin Hoerling; Siegfried Schubert; Hailan Wang; Bradfield Lyon; Arun Kumar; Jennifer Nakamura; Naomi Henderson DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1 Issue: 18 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'North America,Drought,Interannual variability' Pages: 6997-7024 Title: Causes of the 2011–14 California drought Volume: 28 Year: 2015 _record_number: 20258 _uuid: 4ca5a43c-5fbe-4cb0-8a7d-7ee3acafd7c0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00860.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4ca5a43c-5fbe-4cb0-8a7d-7ee3acafd7c0.yaml identifier: 4ca5a43c-5fbe-4cb0-8a7d-7ee3acafd7c0 uri: /reference/4ca5a43c-5fbe-4cb0-8a7d-7ee3acafd7c0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Two degrees of global warming above the preindustrial level is widely suggested as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. This “2 °C” threshold is likely to be reached between 2040 and 2050 for both Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5. Resulting sea level rises will not be globally uniform, due to ocean dynamical processes and changes in gravity associated with water mass redistribution. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 °C goal. By 2040, with a 2 °C warming under the RCP8.5 scenario, more than 90% of coastal areas will experience sea level rise exceeding the global estimate of 0.2 m, with up to 0.4 m expected along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway. With a 5 °C rise by 2100, sea level will rise rapidly, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the coastline will exceed the global sea level rise at the 95th percentile upper limit of 1.8 m. Under RCP8.5, by 2100, New York may expect rises of 1.09 m, Guangzhou may expect rises of 0.91 m, and Lagos may expect rises of 0.90 m, with the 95th percentile upper limit of 2.24 m, 1.93 m, and 1.92 m, respectively. The coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems, will have a very limited time after midcentury to adapt to sea level rises unprecedented since the dawn of the Bronze Age.' Author: 'Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke P.; Riva, Riccardo E. M.; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John C.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1605312113 Date: 'November 22, 2016' Issue: 47 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 13342-13347 Title: Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C Volume: 113 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23796 _uuid: 4e1a8986-cfd0-4294-96ed-7e243d1d5091 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1605312113 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4e1a8986-cfd0-4294-96ed-7e243d1d5091.yaml identifier: 4e1a8986-cfd0-4294-96ed-7e243d1d5091 uri: /reference/4e1a8986-cfd0-4294-96ed-7e243d1d5091 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Richardson, L.A.\rChamp, P.A.\rLoomis, J.B." DOI: 10.1016/j.jfe.2011.05.002 ISSN: 1104-6899 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Forest Economics Pages: 14-35 Title: 'The hidden cost of wildfires: Economic valuation of health effects of wildfire smoke exposure in Southern California' Volume: 18 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 2630 _uuid: 4ee18e43-0d8d-4276-ad51-b87db1d8b7bc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.05.002 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4ee18e43-0d8d-4276-ad51-b87db1d8b7bc.yaml identifier: 4ee18e43-0d8d-4276-ad51-b87db1d8b7bc uri: /reference/4ee18e43-0d8d-4276-ad51-b87db1d8b7bc - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The current California drought has cast a heavy burden on statewide agriculture and water resources, further exacerbated by concurrent extreme high temperatures. Furthermore, industrial-era global radiative forcing brings into question the role of long-term climate change with regard to California drought. How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Here, observations and model experimentation are applied to characterize this drought employing metrics that synthesize drought duration, cumulative precipitation deficit, and soil moisture depletion. The model simulations show that increases in radiative forcing since the late nineteenth century induce both increased annual precipitation and increased surface temperature over California, consistent with prior model studies and with observed long-term change. As a result, there is no material difference in the frequency of droughts defined using bivariate indicators of precipitation and near-surface (10 cm) soil moisture, because shallow soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased evaporation driven by warming, which compensates the increase in the precipitation. However, when using soil moisture within a deep root zone layer (1 m) as covariate, droughts become less frequent because deep soil moisture responds most sensitively to increased precipitation. The results illustrate the different land surface responses to anthropogenic forcing that are relevant for near-surface moisture exchange and for root zone moisture availability. The latter is especially relevant for agricultural impacts as the deep layer dictates moisture availability for plants, trees, and many crops. The results thus indicate that the net effect of climate change has made agricultural drought less likely and that the current severe impacts of drought on California’s agriculture have not been substantially caused by long-term climate changes.' Author: Linyin Cheng; Martin Hoerling; Amir AghaKouchak; Ben Livneh; Xiao-Wei Quan; Jon Eischeid DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'Physical Meteorology and Climatology,Climate change,Models and modeling,Climate models,Regional models' Pages: 111-120 Title: How has human-induced climate change affected California drought risk? Volume: 29 Year: 2016 _record_number: 19542 _uuid: 4fbaaa13-99d2-43df-93db-2be546f18892 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0260.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/4fbaaa13-99d2-43df-93db-2be546f18892.yaml identifier: 4fbaaa13-99d2-43df-93db-2be546f18892 uri: /reference/4fbaaa13-99d2-43df-93db-2be546f18892 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Luedeling, Eike' DOI: 10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011 ISSN: 0304-4238 Issue: 0 Journal: Scientia Horticulturae Keywords: "Adaptation\rChilling Hours\rChill Portions\rClimate analogues, Dynamic Model\rTree dormancy" Pages: 218-229 Title: 'Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: A review' URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304423812003305 Volume: 144 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 6: Agriculture FINAL"]' _record_number: 3946 _uuid: 504c60ae-db5f-4b9c-bb9f-2dd7701dc31c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.scienta.2012.07.011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/504c60ae-db5f-4b9c-bb9f-2dd7701dc31c.yaml identifier: 504c60ae-db5f-4b9c-bb9f-2dd7701dc31c uri: /reference/504c60ae-db5f-4b9c-bb9f-2dd7701dc31c - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Bureau of Reclamation,' Institution: 'U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation' Pages: 1 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Title: Lake Mead Annual High and Low Elevations (1935-2017) URL: https://www.usbr.gov/lc/region/g4000/lakemead_line.pdf Year: 2017 _record_number: 23911 _uuid: 50634cf8-401c-49d9-a79d-1a6c97c06a67 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/lake-mead-annual-high-low-elevations-1935-2017 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/50634cf8-401c-49d9-a79d-1a6c97c06a67.yaml identifier: 50634cf8-401c-49d9-a79d-1a6c97c06a67 uri: /reference/50634cf8-401c-49d9-a79d-1a6c97c06a67 - attrs: Abstract: 'Due to climate change and ongoing drought, California and much of the American West face critical water supply challenges. California’s water supply infrastructure sprawls for thousands of miles, from the Colorado River to the Sacramento Delta. Bringing water to growing urban centers in Southern California is especially energy intensive, pushing local utilities to balance water security with factors such as the cost and carbon footprint of the various supply sources. To enhance water security, cities are expanding efforts to increase local water supply. But do these local sources have a smaller carbon footprint than imported sources? To answer this question and others related to the urban water–energy nexus, this study uses spatially explicit life cycle assessment to estimate the energy and emissions intensity of water supply for two utilities in Southern California: Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, which serves Los Angeles, and the Inland Empire Utility Agency, which serves the San Bernardino region. This study differs from previous research in two significant ways: (1) emissions factors are based not on regional averages but on the specific electric utility and generation sources supplying energy throughout transport, treatment, and distribution phases of the water supply chain; (2) upstream (non-combustion) emissions associated with the energy sources are included. This approach reveals that in case of water supply to Los Angeles, local recycled water has a higher carbon footprint than water imported from the Colorado River. In addition, by excluding upstream emissions, the carbon footprint of water supply is potentially underestimated by up to 30%. These results have wide-ranging implications for how carbon footprints are traditionally calculated at local and regional levels. Reducing the emissions intensity of local water supply hinges on transitioning the energy used to treat and distribute water away from fossil fuel, sources such as coal.' Author: 'Fang, A. J.; Joshua P. Newell; Joshua J. Cousins' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114002 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 11 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 114002 Title: The energy and emissions footprint of water supply for Southern California Volume: 10 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23674 _uuid: 509480b9-533f-45c0-bb31-5dedfb05c784 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/11/114002 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/509480b9-533f-45c0-bb31-5dedfb05c784.yaml identifier: 509480b9-533f-45c0-bb31-5dedfb05c784 uri: /reference/509480b9-533f-45c0-bb31-5dedfb05c784 - attrs: Author: 'Cloern, J.E.; Knowles, N.; Brown, L.R.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Morgan, T.L.; Schoellhamer, D.H.; Stacey, M.T.; van der Wegen, M.; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, A.D.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0024465 ISSN: 1932-6203 Issue: 9 Journal: PLOS ONE NIHMSID: ' NCA' Pages: e24465 Title: Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of climate change Volume: 6 Year: 2011 _record_number: 12954 _uuid: 51804952-a99f-463f-945e-f6f15cfed004 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0024465 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/51804952-a99f-463f-945e-f6f15cfed004.yaml identifier: 51804952-a99f-463f-945e-f6f15cfed004 uri: /reference/51804952-a99f-463f-945e-f6f15cfed004 - attrs: Abstract: 'Unsafe water supplies, limited sanitation and poor hygiene are still important causes of infectious disease (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis), especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases. Therefore, scientists are continuously developing new analysis methods to investigate the impacts of weather and climate on infectious disease, and particularly, on those associated with water. As these methods are based on an imperfect representation of the real world, they are inevitably subjected to many challenges. Based on a systematic review of the literature, we identified seven important challenges for scientists who develop new analysis methods.' Author: 'Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E.; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005659 Issue: 6 Journal: PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases Pages: e0005659 Publisher: Public Library of Science Title: 'Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review' Volume: 11 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25972 _uuid: 51cb0eb1-c1e6-4697-bb43-1c70bfed2ce2 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005659 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/51cb0eb1-c1e6-4697-bb43-1c70bfed2ce2.yaml identifier: 51cb0eb1-c1e6-4697-bb43-1c70bfed2ce2 uri: /reference/51cb0eb1-c1e6-4697-bb43-1c70bfed2ce2