--- - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Redsteer, M.; Hiza, Bemis; Chief, K.D.; Gautam, M.; Middleton, B.R.; Tsosie, R.' Book Title: 'Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment' Editor: 'Garfin, Greg; Jardine, Angie; Overpeck, Jonathan' Pages: 385-404 Place Published: 'Washington, DC' Publisher: Island Press Title: 'Unique challenges facing southwestern Tribes: Impacts, adaptation and mitigation' Year: 2013 _record_number: 18271 _uuid: 85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce reftype: Book Section child_publication: /book/c9625c65-c20f-4163-87fe-cebf734f7836 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce.yaml identifier: 85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce uri: /reference/85923ac2-22e6-4265-9d70-1887132abfce - attrs: Author: 'Bednaršek, N.; Feely, R. A.; Reum, J. C. P.; Peterson, B.; Menkel, J.; Alin, S. R.; Hales, B.' DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 Issue: 1785 Journal: 'Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences' Title: Limacina helicina shell dissolution as an indicator of declining habitat suitability owing to ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem Type of Article: 10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 Volume: 281 Year: 2014 _record_number: 22171 _uuid: 861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rspb.2014.0123 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a.yaml identifier: 861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a uri: /reference/861d5508-2a4d-4c92-848d-65bb5984b21a - attrs: Author: 'Young, Kristina E.; Grover, Henry S.; Bowker, Matthew A.' DOI: 10.1111/nph.13910 Issue: 1 Journal: New Phytologist Pages: 18-22 Title: Altering biocrusts for an altered climate Volume: 210 Year: 2016 _record_number: 26407 _uuid: 8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/nph.13910 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45.yaml identifier: 8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 uri: /reference/8627dc43-0f4f-4504-b0e6-9bd74ac36b45 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Hutto, Sara V.; Kelley D. Higgason; Jessi M. Kershner; Whitney A. Reynier; Darrell S. Gregg ' Institution: 'National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries' Pages: 475 Place Published: 'Silver Spring, MD' Series Volume: Marine Sanctuaries Conservation Series ONMS-15-02 Title: 'Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for the North-central California Coast and Ocean ' URL: https://nmssanctuaries.blob.core.windows.net/sanctuaries-prod/media/archive/science/conservation/pdfs/vulnerability-assessment-gfnms.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 23947 _uuid: 868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/climate-change-vulnerability-assessment-north-central-california-coast-ocean href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36.yaml identifier: 868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 uri: /reference/868f45d1-d3c6-46c6-bad4-cc82dcbd4b36 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Flessa, Karl; Eloise Kendy; Karen Schlatter' Institution: University of Arizona (for the International Boundary and Water Commission) Pages: 78 Place Published: 'Tucson, AZ' Title: 'Minute 319: Colorado River Limitrophe and Delta Environmental Flows Monitoring. Interim Report' URL: https://www.ibwc.gov/Files/Minutes%20319/2016_EFM_InterimReport_Min319.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23954 _uuid: 86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab reftype: Report child_publication: /report/minute-319-colorado-river-limitrophe-delta-environmental-flows-monitoring-interim-report href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab.yaml identifier: 86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab uri: /reference/86db4a9f-c8bd-4fbe-ac00-605a277c67ab - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Salmon Technical Team (STT),' Institution: Pacific Fishery Management Council Pages: 335 Place Published: 'Portland, OR' Title: Review of 2017 Ocean Salmon Fisheries. Stock Assessment and Fishery Evaluation (SAFE) document URL: https://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Review_of_2017_Ocean_Salmon_Fisheries_18Final.pdf Year: 2018 _record_number: 26378 _uuid: 8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d reftype: Report child_publication: /report/review-2017-ocean-salmon-fisheries-stock-assessment-fishery-evaluation-safe-document href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d.yaml identifier: 8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d uri: /reference/8725a83b-a72b-420d-ac68-c4938504de2d - attrs: .publisher: 'Wiley Periodicals, Inc.' .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Janssen, Emily; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Olsen, Seth C.; Goodman, Alex' DOI: 10.1002/2013EF000185 ISSN: 2328-4277 Issue: 2 Journal: Earth’s Future Keywords: Extreme Precipitation; CMIP5; 1637 Regional climate change; 1610 Atmosphere; 1620 Climate dynamics; 1626 Global climate models; 1627 Coupled models of the climate system Pages: 99-113 Title: 'Observational- and model-based trends and projections of extreme precipitation over the contiguous United States' Volume: 2 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19689 _uuid: 8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2013EF000185 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25.yaml identifier: 8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 uri: /reference/8785e73d-2258-47f6-b4f5-a79b6ac5ce25 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.' Accession Number: 34 Alternate Journal: Science Author: "Barnett, T.P.\rPierce, D.W.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rBonfils, C.\rSanter, B.D.\rDas, T.\rBala, G.\rWood, A.W.\rNozawa, T.\rMirin, A. A.\rCayan, D.R.\rDettinger, M.D." Author Address: '[Barnett, Tim P.; Pierce, David W.; Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Das, Tapash; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. [Bonfils, Celine; Santer, Benjamin D.; Bala, Govindasamy; Mirin, Arthur A.] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. [Wood, Andrew W.] Univ Washington, Land Surface Hydrol Res Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. [Nozawa, Toru] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan. [Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.] US Geol Survey, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.; Barnett, TP, Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA.; tbarnett-ul@ucsd.edu' DOI: 10.1126/science.1152538 Date: Feb ISSN: 0036-8075 Issue: 5866 Journal: Science Keywords: north-america; climate-change; trends; model; attribution; streamflow; snowpack; cycle Language: English Notes: 'ISI Document Delivery No.: 264SW; Times Cited: 69; Cited Reference Count: 29; Barnett, Tim P. Pierce, David W. Hidalgo, Hugo G. Bonfils, Celine Santer, Benjamin D. Das, Tapash Bala, Govindasamy Wood, Andrew W. Nozawa, Toru Mirin, Arthur A. Cayan, Daniel R. Dettinger, Michael D.; Amer assoc advancement science; Washington' Pages: 1080-1083 Title: Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States Type of Article: Article URL: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1152538 Volume: 319 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 862 _uuid: 87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1126/science.1152538 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833.yaml identifier: 87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 uri: /reference/87875dde-385b-4f57-b0ae-aa21648b2833 - attrs: Author: 'Jacox, Michael G.; Michael A. Alexander; Nathan J. Mantua; James D . Scott; Gaelle Hervieux; Robert S. Webb; Francisco E. Werner' DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0119.1 Issue: 1 Journal: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Pages: S27-S33 Title: 'Forcing of multiyear extreme ocean temperatures that impacted California Current living marine resources in 2016 [in "Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective"]' Volume: 99 Year: 2018 _record_number: 23790 _uuid: 87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0119.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602.yaml identifier: 87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 uri: /reference/87d40ebf-edbf-4216-a021-b94f8d944602 - attrs: Author: 'Guo, Qinghua; Kelly, Maggi; Graham, Catherine H.' DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.07.012 Date: 2005/02/25/ ISSN: 0304-3800 Issue: 1 Journal: Ecological Modelling Keywords: Geographic information systems; Support vector machines; Potential disease spread; Sudden Oak Death Pages: 75-90 Title: Support vector machines for predicting distribution of Sudden Oak Death in California Volume: 182 Year: 2005 _record_number: 23773 _uuid: 8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.07.012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc.yaml identifier: 8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc uri: /reference/8843699c-4922-470e-a1cd-641106cec6bc - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Levitus, S.\rAntonov, J.I.\rBoyer, T.P.\rLocarnini, R.A.\rGarcia, H.E.\rMishonov, A.V." DOI: 10.1029/2008GL037155 Issue: 7 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Pages: L07608 Title: Global ocean heat content 1955–2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems Volume: 36 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL"]' _record_number: 778 _uuid: 88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2008GL037155 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215.yaml identifier: 88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 uri: /reference/88eb1d21-c245-468e-9508-33f3beebe215 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Mai, Trieu; Ryan Wiser; Galen Barbose; Lori Bird; Jenny Heeter; David Keyser; Venkat Krishnan; Jordan Macknick; Dev Millstein' Institution: National Renewable Energy Laboratory Pages: 58 Place Published: 'Golden, CO' Series Volume: NREL/TP-6A20-67455; LBNL-1006962 Title: 'A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards' URL: https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy17osti/67455.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 23937 _uuid: 89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/prospective-analysis-costs-benefits-impacts-us-renewable-portfolio-standards href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64.yaml identifier: 89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 uri: /reference/89088f91-a16a-4a72-8712-8004fba09c64 - attrs: Author: 'Toyofuku, Takashi; Matsuo, Miki Y.; de Nooijer, Lennart Jan; Nagai, Yukiko; Kawada, Sachiko; Fujita, Kazuhiko; Reichart, Gert-Jan; Nomaki, Hidetaka; Tsuchiya, Masashi; Sakaguchi, Hide; Kitazato, Hiroshi' DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14145 Date: 01/27/online Journal: Nature Communications Pages: 14145 Publisher: The Author(s) Title: Proton pumping accompanies calcification in foraminifera Type of Article: Article Volume: 8 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23700 _uuid: 893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/ncomms14145 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d.yaml identifier: 893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d uri: /reference/893d8808-72b4-4728-8759-76fd65dd724d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.' Author: 'Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1422385112 Date: 'March 31, 2015' Issue: 13 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 3931-3936 Title: Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California Volume: 112 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19545 _uuid: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1422385112 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151.yaml identifier: 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 uri: /reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151 - attrs: Abstract: 'Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.' Author: 'Woodruff, Sierra C.; Stults, Missy' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3012 Date: 08//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 8 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 796-802 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans Type of Article: Article Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21160 _uuid: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3012 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8.yaml identifier: 8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 uri: /reference/8a61b1a7-bb52-496d-86f7-21911efcf5f8 - attrs: Abstract: 'Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type, there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and to significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions, especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, it was found that the number of weight-restriction days between May and September will increase by 50%–200% at four major airports in the United States by 2050–70 under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a negative economic effect on the airline industry. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation. Planning for changes in extreme heat events will help the aviation industry to reduce its vulnerability to this aspect of climate change.' Author: 'Coffel, E.; R. Horton' DOI: 10.1175/wcas-d-14-00026.1 Issue: 1 Journal: 'Weather, Climate, and Society' Keywords: 'Extreme events,Climate change,Economic value,Societal impacts' Pages: 94-102 Title: Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation Volume: 7 Year: 2015 _record_number: 24541 _uuid: 8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/wcas-d-14-00026.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607.yaml identifier: 8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 uri: /reference/8acf6392-b55f-4fbe-a660-1777e06b6607 - attrs: Author: 'van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2903 Date: 04//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 4 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 375-380 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21334 _uuid: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2903 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572.yaml identifier: 8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 uri: /reference/8c12cc4c-3448-4055-b7a2-e03ead1c2572 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: 'Smith, Joel B.; Richels, Richard; Miller, Barbara' Book Title: 'Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change' Editor: USGCRP Pages: 219-249 Place Published: 'Cambridge, UK and New York, NY' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Title: Potential consequences of climate variaility and change for the western United States Year: 2001 _record_number: 23920 _uuid: 8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/climate-change-impacts-on-united-states-potential-consequences-climate-variability-change-report-us-global-change-research-program href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d.yaml identifier: 8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d uri: /reference/8c622c97-0a72-48dc-b899-a6a3cced9b1d - attrs: Author: 'Xiao, Mu; Koppa, Akash; Mekonnen, Zelalem; Pagán, Brianna R.; Zhan, Shengan; Cao, Qian; Aierken, Abureli; Lee, Hyongki; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.' DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073333 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 10 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: groundwater loss; Central Valley; water balance; 1829 Groundwater hydrology; 1876 Water budgets Pages: 4872-4879 Title: How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought? Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 21388 _uuid: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2017GL073333 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff.yaml identifier: 8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff uri: /reference/8ca4a4ae-9b6c-478f-bfc9-16762726dfff - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Reid, Colleen E.; Mann, Jennifer K.; Alfasso, Ruth; English, Paul B.; King, Galatea C.; Lincoln, Rebecca A.; Margolis, Helene G.; Rubado, Dan J.; Sabato, Joseph E.; West, Nancy L.; Woods, Brian; Navarro, Kathleen M.; Balmes, J. R.' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1103766 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 5 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 715-720 Title: 'Evaluation of a heat vulnerability index on abnormally hot days: An environmental public health tracking study' URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3346770/pdf/ehp.1103766.pdf Volume: 120 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL"]' _record_number: 4227 _uuid: 8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1103766 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765.yaml identifier: 8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 uri: /reference/8ddfda37-f9e3-4848-aa97-6f5eb0704765 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Westerling, A.L.\rBryant, B.P.\rPreisler, H.K.\rHolmes, T.P.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rDas, T.\rShrestha, S.R." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 1 supplement Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 445-463 Title: Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire Volume: 109 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","RG 5 Southwest"]' _record_number: 3395 _uuid: 8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-011-0329-9 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d.yaml identifier: 8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d uri: /reference/8dfecf8b-f8a8-4f03-8d68-551b13794a1d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Large changes in the hydrology of the western United States have been observed since the mid-twentieth century. These include a reduction in the amount of precipitation arriving as snow, a decline in snowpack at low and midelevations, and a shift toward earlier arrival of both snowmelt and the centroid (center of mass) of streamflows. To project future water supply reliability, it is crucial to obtain a better understanding of the underlying cause or causes for these changes. A regional warming is often posited as the cause of these changes without formal testing of different competitive explanations for the warming. In this study, a rigorous detection and attribution analysis is performed to determine the causes of the late winter/early spring changes in hydrologically relevant temperature variables over mountain ranges of the western United States. Natural internal climate variability, as estimated from two long control climate model simulations, is insufficient to explain the rapid increase in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, the sharp decline in frost days, and the rise in degree-days above 0°C (a simple proxy for temperature-driven snowmelt). These observed changes are also inconsistent with the model-predicted responses to variability in solar irradiance and volcanic activity. The observations are consistent with climate simulations that include the combined effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. It is found that, for each temperature variable considered, an anthropogenic signal is identifiable in observational fields. The results are robust to uncertainties in model-estimated fingerprints and natural variability noise, to the choice of statistical downscaling method, and to various processing options in the detection and attribution method.' Author: "Bonfils, C.\rSanter, B.D.\rPierce, D.W.\rHidalgo, H.G.\rBala, G.\rDas, T.\rBarnett, T.P.\rCayan, D.R.\rDoutriaux, C.\rWood, A.W.\rMirin, A.\rNozawa, T." 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