--- - attrs: Author: 'van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Lalemand, Laura B.; Keifer, MaryBeth; Kane, Jeffrey M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.028 Date: 2016/11/01/ ISSN: 0378-1127 Journal: Forest Ecology and Management Keywords: Fire effects; Fire modeling; Forest management; Fuels treatments Pages: 265-272 Title: Duration of fuels reduction following prescribed fire in coniferous forests of U.S. national parks in California and the Colorado Plateau Volume: 379 Year: 2016 _record_number: 23876 _uuid: 76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.07.028 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8.yaml identifier: 76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 uri: /reference/76524700-c1fa-4024-a639-246de55b38d8 - attrs: Abstract: "We present the Met Office Hadley Centre's sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) data set, HadISST1, and the nighttime marine air temperature (NMAT) data set, HadMAT1. HadISST1 replaces the global sea ice and sea surface temperature (GISST) data sets and is a unique combination of monthly globally complete fields of SST and sea ice concentration on a 1° latitude-longitude grid from 1871. The companion HadMAT1 runs monthly from 1856 on a 5° latitude-longitude grid and incorporates new corrections for the effect on NMAT of increasing deck (and hence measurement) heights. HadISST1 and HadMAT1 temperatures are reconstructed using a two-stage reduced-space optimal interpolation procedure, followed by superposition of quality-improved gridded observations onto the reconstructions to restore local detail. The sea ice fields are made more homogeneous by compensating satellite microwave-based sea ice concentrations for the impact of surface melt effects on retrievals in the Arctic and for algorithm deficiencies in the Antarctic and by making the historical in situ concentrations consistent with the satellite data. SSTs near sea ice are estimated using statistical relationships between SST and sea ice concentration. HadISST1 compares well with other published analyses, capturing trends in global, hemispheric, and regional SST well, containing SST fields with more uniform variance through time and better month-to-month persistence than those in GISST. HadMAT1 is more consistent with SST and with collocated land surface air temperatures than previous NMAT data sets." Author: 'Rayner, N. A.; Parker, D. E.; Horton, E. B.; Folland, C. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Rowell, D. P.; Kent, E. C.; Kaplan, A.' DOI: 10.1029/2002JD002670 Issue: D14 Journal: 'Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres' Pages: 4407 Title: 'Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century' Volume: 108 Year: 2003 _record_number: 26380 _uuid: 777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2002JD002670 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263.yaml identifier: 777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 uri: /reference/777135a7-3a18-4427-a591-11807b37d263 - attrs: Author: 'Funayama, Kota; Hines, Ellen; Davis, Jerry; Allen, Sarah' DOI: 10.1002/aqc.2318 ISSN: 1099-0755 Issue: 2 Journal: 'Aquatic Conservation: Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems' Keywords: elephant seals; Mirounga angustirostris; habitat management; marine protected areas; habitat modelling; climate change; sea-level rise Pages: 233-245 Title: 'Effects of sea-level rise on northern elephant seal breeding habitat at Point Reyes Peninsula, California' Volume: 23 Year: 2013 _record_number: 23765 _uuid: 78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/aqc.2318 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d.yaml identifier: 78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d uri: /reference/78204317-03d9-423e-854a-37f7cf04e47d - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Moritz, M.A.\rParisien, M.A.\rBatllori, E.\rKrawchuk, M.A.\rVan Dorn, J.\rGanz, D.J.\rHayhoe, K." DOI: 10.1890/ES11-00345.1 ISSN: 2150-8925 Issue: 6 Journal: Ecosphere Pages: 1-22 Title: Climate change and disruptions to global fire activity URL: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1890/ES11-00345.1 Volume: 3 Year: 2012 _chapter: '["Ch. 20: Southwest FINAL","RG 5 Southwest","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2088 _uuid: 78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1890/ES11-00345.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8.yaml identifier: 78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 uri: /reference/78ccfd46-befc-4726-8dea-985aa6efb5b8 - attrs: Author: 'Marshall, Kristin N.; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Hodgson, Emma E.; Hermann, Albert; Busch, D. Shallin; McElhany, Paul; Essington, Timothy E.; Harvey, Chris J.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.' DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13594 ISSN: 1365-2486 Issue: 4 Journal: Global Change Biology Keywords: California Current; climate change; ecosystem model; fisheries; ocean acidification; risk assessment Pages: 1525-1539 Title: 'Risks of ocean acidification in the California Current food web and fisheries: Ecosystem model projections' Volume: 23 Year: 2017 _record_number: 24880 _uuid: 79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/gcb.13594 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28.yaml identifier: 79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 uri: /reference/79fffe59-14cc-48e9-b6e2-0e70906f6d28 - attrs: .reference_type: 47 Author: 'Ortiz, Beverly R.' Conference Location: 'Rohnert Park, CA' Conference Name: "Sixth Symposium on Oak Woodlands: Today's Challenges, Tomorrow's Opportunities" Editor: 'Adina Merenlender; Douglas McCreary; Kathryn L. Purcell ' Notes: General Technical Report PSW-GTR-217 Pages: 39-56 Place Published: 'Albany, CA' Publisher: U.S. Department of Agriculture Title: 'Contemporary California Indians, oaks, and sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum)' URL: https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr217/psw_gtr217_39.pdf Year: 2008 _record_number: 23928 _uuid: 7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 reftype: Conference Paper child_publication: /generic/8cd9688c-6d87-4c82-aafe-3acd17446327 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935.yaml identifier: 7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 uri: /reference/7a1f655e-61bb-452c-82bd-58aafc5be935 - attrs: Abstract: 'While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.' Author: 'Brown, Heidi E.; Alex Young; Joceline Lega; Theodore G. Andreadis; Jessica Schurich; Andrew Comrie' DOI: 10.1175/ei-d-15-0008.1 Issue: 18 Journal: Earth Interactions Keywords: 'Ecological models,Disease,Ecological models,Local effects' Pages: 1-18 Title: Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West Nile virus vectors Volume: 19 Year: 2015 _record_number: 23667 _uuid: 7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/ei-d-15-0008.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08.yaml identifier: 7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 uri: /reference/7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Howitt, Richard; Duncan MacEwan; Josué Medellín-Azuara; Jay Lund; Daniel Sumner' Institution: 'University of California-Davis, Center for Watershed Sciences' Pages: 28 Place Published: 'Davis, CA' Title: Economic analysis of the 2015 drought for California agriculture URL: https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/biblio/Final_Drought%20Report_08182015_Full_Report_WithAppendices.pdf Year: 2015 _record_number: 23948 _uuid: 7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/economic-analysis-2015-drought-california-agriculture href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289.yaml identifier: 7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 uri: /reference/7aecf6b3-0b12-40d7-8c61-c1b72cc14289 - attrs: .publisher: Springer Netherlands .reference_type: 0 Alternate Journal: Climatic Change Author: 'Dittmer, Kyle' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0745-0 Date: October 2013 ISSN: 0165-0009 Issue: 3 Journal: Climatic Change Language: English Pages: 627-641 Title: Changing streamflow on Columbia basin tribal lands—Climate change and salmon URL: http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs10584-013-0745-0.pdf Volume: 120 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Ch. 12: Indigenous FINAL","Ch. 1: Overview FINAL"]' _record_number: 3906 _uuid: 7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-013-0745-0 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca.yaml identifier: 7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca uri: /reference/7bc1ebe9-955f-4c9f-a54c-f718e354d5ca - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Knowlton, K.\rRotkin-Ellman, M.\rKing, G.\rMargolis, H.G.\rSmith, D.\rSolomon, G.\rTrent, R.\rEnglish, P." DOI: 10.1289/ehp.11594 ISSN: 0091-6765 Issue: 1 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 61-67 Title: 'The 2006 California heat wave: Impacts on hospitalizations and emergency department visits' URL: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627866/pdf/EHP-117-61.pdf Volume: 117 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 9: Human Health FINAL","Overview"]' _record_number: 19 _uuid: 7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.11594 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510.yaml identifier: 7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 uri: /reference/7ca0e947-163a-46f3-9274-cea209b94510 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hess, Jeremy J.; Saha, Shubhayu; Luber, George' DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1306796 ISSN: 1552-9924 Issue: 11 Journal: Environmental Health Perspectives Pages: 1209-1215 Title: 'Summertime acute heat illness in U.S. emergency departments from 2006 through 2010: Analysis of a nationally representative sample' Volume: 122 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch2 _record_number: 16112 _uuid: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1289/ehp.1306796 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66.yaml identifier: 7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 uri: /reference/7d16ea3a-c4dc-4ebd-8d38-c3d6a64a3e66 - attrs: .publisher: American Meteorological Society .reference_type: 0 Access Date: 2013/08/02 Author: "Das, T.\rHidalgo, H. G.\rPierce, D. W.\rBarnett, T. P.\rDettinger, M. D.\rCayan, D. R.\rBonfils, C.\rBala, G.\rMirin, A." DOI: 10.1175/2009jhm1095.1 Date: 2009/08/01 ISSN: 1525-755X Issue: 4 Journal: Journal of Hydrometeorology Pages: 871-892 Title: Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JHM1095.1 Volume: 10 Year: 2009 _chapter: '["Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL"]' _record_number: 4106 _uuid: 7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/2009jhm1095.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86.yaml identifier: 7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 uri: /reference/7db8f4ff-81fb-4d22-949a-076aab55aa86 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Albertine, Jennifer M.; Manning, William J.; DaCosta, Michelle; Stinson, Kristina A.; Muilenberg, Michael L.; Rogers, Christine A.' DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0111712 ISSN: 1932-6203 Issue: 11 Journal: PLoS ONE Pages: e111712 Title: Projected carbon dioxide to increase grass pollen and allergen exposure despite higher ozone levels Volume: 9 Year: 2014 _chapter: Ch3 _record_number: 16124 _uuid: 7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1371/journal.pone.0111712 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f.yaml identifier: 7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f uri: /reference/7dff169a-bb19-4f80-bdc9-9aae8d13a86f - attrs: Author: 'Luo, Lifeng; Apps, Deanna; Arcand, Samuel; Xu, Huating; Pan, Ming; Hoerling, Martin' DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072027 ISSN: 1944-8007 Issue: 7 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: drought; temperature anomaly; precipitation deficit; snowpack Pages: 3184-3192 Title: Contribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies to the California drought during 2012–2015 Volume: 44 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23812 _uuid: 7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016GL072027 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30.yaml identifier: 7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 uri: /reference/7e31e226-148a-44b3-9314-ddc15d118e30 - attrs: Abstract: 'Observed streamflow and climate data are used to test the hypothesis that climate change is already affecting Rio Grande streamflow volume derived from snowmelt runoff in ways consistent with model-based projections of 21st-Century streamflow. Annual and monthly changes in streamflow volume and surface climate variables on the Upper Rio Grande, near its headwaters in southern Colorado, are assessed for water years 1958–2015. Results indicate winter and spring season temperatures in the basin have increased significantly, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has decreased by approximately 25%, and streamflow has declined slightly in the April–July snowmelt runoff season. Small increases in precipitation have reduced the impact of declining snowpack on trends in streamflow. Changes in the snowpack–runoff relationship are noticeable in hydrographs of mean monthly streamflow, but are most apparent in the changing ratios of precipitation (rain + snow, and SWE) to streamflow and in the declining fraction of runoff attributable to snowpack or winter precipitation. The observed changes provide observational confirmation for model projections of decreasing runoff attributable to snowpack, and demonstrate the decreasing utility of snowpack for predicting subsequent streamflow on a seasonal basis in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.' Author: 'Chavarria, Shaleene B.; Gutzler, David S.' DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12640 Issue: 3 Journal: JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association Pages: 644-659 Title: Observed changes in climate and streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande basin Volume: 54 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25961 _uuid: 7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/1752-1688.12640 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d.yaml identifier: 7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d uri: /reference/7e8738a6-8451-4e90-823a-ec9797aff33d - attrs: Abstract: Wildfire is a particular concern in the wildland–urban interface (WUI) of the western United States where human development occurs close to flammable natural vegetation. Author: 'Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C.; Lamsal, Aashis; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.' DOI: 10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 Date: December 01 ISSN: 1572-9761 Issue: 10 Journal: Landscape Ecology Pages: 1943-1957 Title: 'Climate change and wildfire risk in an expanding wildland–urban interface: A case study from the Colorado Front Range Corridor' Type of Article: journal article Volume: 30 Year: 2015 _record_number: 21979 _uuid: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10980-015-0222-4 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc.yaml identifier: 7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc uri: /reference/7ef4f167-6123-4660-8d23-e50f7fa99dbc - attrs: Author: 'Westerling, Anthony LeRoy' DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 Journal: 'Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences' Pages: 20150178 Title: 'Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: Sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring' Volume: 371 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21942 _uuid: 80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1098/rstb.2015.0178 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d.yaml identifier: 80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d uri: /reference/80cf45a9-2066-4434-ae46-0e8f53b2427d - attrs: Author: 'McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2873 Date: 03//print ISSN: 1758-678X Issue: 3 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 295-300 Publisher: Nature Publishing Group Title: Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise Type of Article: Letter Volume: 6 Year: 2016 _record_number: 21972 _uuid: 811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate2873 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0.yaml identifier: 811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 uri: /reference/811ef6d7-304b-40e0-8b90-433d80cdb5f0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Changes in the amount and timing of snowmelt have large effects on water for society and ecosystems. Using long-term records from across the western United States, we demonstrate that atmospheric humidity is a major control on how seasonal snow responds to warming temperatures. Specifically, we observe an increase in the frequency and magnitude of episodic winter melt events under higher humidity that may alter the timing of water availability. In lower-humidity regions, however, warming is associated with increased sublimation and/or evaporation from the snowpack further reducing the amount of available water in these dry regions. Management approaches to address these changes in snowmelt water resources from continued warming will require improved estimation of variable and changing atmospheric humidity.Climate change is altering historical patterns of snow accumulation and melt, threatening societal frameworks for water supply. However, decreases in spring snow water equivalent (SWE) and changes in snowmelt are not ubiquitous despite widespread warming in the western United States, highlighting the importance of latent and radiant energy fluxes in snow ablation. Here we demonstrate how atmospheric humidity and solar radiation interact with warming temperature to control snowpack ablation at 462 sites spanning a gradient in mean winter temperature from −8.9 to +2.9 °C. The most widespread response to warming was an increase in episodic, midwinter ablation events. Under humid conditions these ablation events were dominated by melt, averaging 21% (202 mm/year) of SWE. Winter ablation under dry atmospheric conditions at similar temperatures was smaller, averaging 12% (58 mm/year) of SWE and likely dominated by sublimation fluxes. These contrasting patterns result from the critical role that atmospheric humidity plays in local energy balance, with latent and longwave radiant fluxes cooling the snowpack under dry conditions and warming it under humid conditions. Similarly, spring melt rates were faster under humid conditions, yet the second most common trend was a reduction in spring melt rates associated with earlier initiation when solar radiation inputs are smaller. Our analyses demonstrate that regional differences in atmospheric humidity are a major cause of the spatial variability in snowpack response to warming. Better constraints on humidity will be critical to predicting both the amount and timing of surface water supplies under climate change.' Author: 'Harpold, Adrian A.; Brooks, Paul D.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1716789115 Issue: 6 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 1215-1220 Title: Humidity determines snowpack ablation under a warming climate Volume: 115 Year: 2018 _record_number: 26363 _uuid: 81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1716789115 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe.yaml identifier: 81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe uri: /reference/81925b96-fbad-4ee2-b175-6552ecd1e0fe - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Maupin, Molly A.; Joan F. Kenny; Susan S. Hutson; John K. Lovelace; Nancy L. Barber; Kristin S. Linsey ' DOI: 10.3133/cir1405 Institution: U.S. Geological Survey Pages: 56 Place Published: 'Reston, VA' Series Volume: USGC Circular 1405 Title: Estimated Use of Water in the United States in 2010 Year: 2014 _record_number: 21508 _uuid: 81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e reftype: Report child_publication: /report/estimated-use-water-united-states-2010 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e.yaml identifier: 81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e uri: /reference/81bd7c9e-d465-4eb4-a0d9-5b3f244c839e - attrs: Abstract: 'Analyses of observed non-Gaussian daily minimum and maximum temperature probability distribution functions (PDFs) in the Southwest US highlight the importance of variance and warm tail length in determining future heat wave probability. Even if no PDF shape change occurs with climate change, locations with shorter warm tails and/or smaller variance will see a greater increase in heat wave probability, defined as exceedances above the historical 95th percentile threshold, than will long tailed/larger variance distributions. Projections from ten downscaled CMIP5 models show important geospatial differences in the amount of warming expected for a location. However, changes in heat wave probability do not directly follow changes in background warming. Projected changes in heat wave probability are largely explained by a rigid shift of the daily temperature distribution. In some locations where there is more warming, future heat wave probability is buffered somewhat by longer warm tails. In other parts of the Southwest where there is less warming, heat wave probability is relatively enhanced because of shorter tailed PDFs. Effects of PDF shape changes are generally small by comparison to those from a rigid shift, and fall within the range of uncertainty among models in the amount of warming expected by the end of the century.' Author: 'Guirguis, Kristen; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.; Pierce, David W.' DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3 Date: May 01 ISSN: 1432-0894 Issue: 9-10 Journal: Climate Dynamics Pages: 3853-3864 Title: Heat wave probability in the changing climate of the Southwest US Type of Article: journal article Volume: 50 Year: 2018 _record_number: 25968 _uuid: 81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s00382-017-3850-3 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff.yaml identifier: 81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff uri: /reference/81df3f02-3aa9-4c38-a7a5-a0602f8668ff - attrs: Abstract: 'Climate warming poses two major challenges for birds: exposure to higher temperatures and disruption of the synchrony between nesting and resource emergence. To cope, birds are expected to track temperature by moving to cooler areas and to track resource emergence by breeding earlier. We show that these two responses are intertwined. Earlier breeding can substitute for range shifts by reducing temperatures during critical breeding-season life-history events. We show that early-summer temperatures affect nesting success in North American birds and that Californian birds breed ∼1 wk earlier today than a century ago. Thus, without shifting geographically, birds now nest at similar temperatures as they did a century ago, which might reshape both the need and the opportunity for range shifts.Species respond to climate change in two dominant ways: range shifts in latitude or elevation and phenological shifts of life-history events. Range shifts are widely viewed as the principal mechanism for thermal niche tracking, and phenological shifts in birds and other consumers are widely understood as the principal mechanism for tracking temporal peaks in biotic resources. However, phenological and range shifts each present simultaneous opportunities for temperature and resource tracking, although the possible role for phenological shifts in thermal niche tracking has been widely overlooked. Using a canonical dataset of Californian bird surveys and a detectability-based approach for quantifying phenological signal, we show that Californian bird communities advanced their breeding phenology by 5–12 d over the last century. This phenological shift might track shifting resource peaks, but it also reduces average temperatures during nesting by over 1 °C, approximately the same magnitude that average temperatures have warmed over the same period. We further show that early-summer temperature anomalies are correlated with nest success in a continental-scale database of bird nests, suggesting avian thermal niches might be broadly limited by temperatures during nesting. These findings outline an adaptation surface where geographic range and breeding phenology respond jointly to constraints imposed by temperature and resource phenology. By stabilizing temperatures during nesting, phenological shifts might mitigate the need for range shifts. Global change ecology will benefit from further exploring phenological adjustment as a potential mechanism for thermal niche tracking and vice versa.' Author: 'Socolar, Jacob B.; Epanchin, Peter N.; Beissinger, Steven R.; Tingley, Morgan W.' DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1705897114 Issue: 49 Journal: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Pages: 12976-12981 Title: Phenological shifts conserve thermal niches in North American birds and reshape expectations for climate-driven range shifts Volume: 114 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25983 _uuid: 820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1073/pnas.1705897114 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1.yaml identifier: 820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 uri: /reference/820ced23-71ae-4607-8353-74e3881db2a1 - attrs: Abstract: 'High temperatures and severe drought contributed to extensive tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during the 2000s in parts of the western continental United States. Several states in this region have greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets and would benefit from information on the amount of carbon stored in tree biomass killed by disturbance. We quantified mean annual tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest from 2003–2012 for each state in this region. We estimated tree mortality from fires and beetles using tree aboveground carbon (AGC) stock and disturbance data sets derived largely from remote sensing. We quantified tree mortality from harvest using data from US Forest Service reports. In both cases, we used Monte Carlo analyses to track uncertainty associated with parameter error and temporal variability. Regional tree mortality from harvest, beetles, and fires (MORT H+B+F ) together averaged 45.8 ± 16.0 Tg AGC yr −1 (±95% confidence interval), indicating a mortality rate of 1.10 ± 0.38% yr −1 . Harvest accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F (∼50%), followed by beetles (∼32%), and fires (∼18%). Tree mortality from harvest was concentrated in Washington and Oregon, where harvest accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F in each state. Tree mortality from beetles occurred widely at low levels across the region, yet beetles had pronounced impacts in Colorado and Montana, where they accounted for ∼80% of MORT H+B+F . Tree mortality from fires was highest in California, though fires accounted for the largest percentage of MORT H+B+F in Arizona and New Mexico (∼50%). Drought and human activities shaped regional variation in tree mortality, highlighting opportunities and challenges to managing GHG emissions from forests. Rising temperatures and greater risk of drought will likely increase tree mortality from fires and bark beetles during coming decades in this region. Thus, sustained monitoring and mapping of tree mortality is necessary to inform forest and GHG management.' Author: 'Berner, Logan T.; Beverly E. Law; Arjan J. H. Meddens; Jeffrey A. Hicke' DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94 ISSN: 1748-9326 Issue: 6 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 065005 Title: 'Tree mortality from fires, bark beetles, and timber harvest during a hot and dry decade in the western United States (2003–2012)' Volume: 12 Year: 2017 _record_number: 23664 _uuid: 8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f94 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1.yaml identifier: 8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 uri: /reference/8252d3e9-6de4-4d92-942a-69ffa9769fc1 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'TCCP,' Institution: 'Tribal Climate Change Profile (TCCP) Project, University of Oregon' Pages: 6 Place Published: 'Eugene, OR' Title: 'Tribal Climate Change Profile. Santa Ynez Band of Chumash Indians: Climate Change and Environmental Management Programs' URL: http://www7.nau.edu/itep/main/tcc/docs/tribes/tribes_Chumash.pdf Year: 2013 _record_number: 23944 _uuid: 826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/tribal-climate-change-profile-santa-ynez-band-chumash-indians-climate-change-environmental-management-programs href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358.yaml identifier: 826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358 uri: /reference/826a78bd-d04d-44d7-b400-ce3d095d7358