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finding 12.3 : key-message-12-3
Engineers, planners, and researchers in the transportation field are showing increasing interest and sophistication in understanding the risks that climate hazards pose to transportation assets and services (very high confidence). Transportation practitioner efforts demonstrate the connection between advanced assessment and the implementation of adaptive measures, though many communities still face challenges and barriers to action (high confidence).
This finding is from chapter 12 of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: The Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II.
Process for developing key messages:
We sought an author team that could bring diverse experiences and perspectives to the chapter, including some who have participated in prior national-level assessments within the sector. All are experts in the field of climate adaptation and transportation infrastructure. The team represents geographic expertise in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, South, Central, and Western regions, including urban and rural as well as coastal and inland perspectives. Team members come from the public (federal and city government and academia) and private sectors (consulting and engineering), with practitioner and research backgrounds.
The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at several workshops and teleconferences and via email exchanges. The authors considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, see Appendix 1: Process. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations with transportation experts during multiple listening sessions.
Because the impacts of climate change on transportation assets for the United States and globally have been widely examined elsewhere, including in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3),dd5b893d-4462-4bb3-9205-67b532919566 this chapter addresses previously identified climate change impacts on transportation assets that persist nationally, with a focus on recent literature that describes newly identified impacts and advances in understanding. Asset vulnerability and impacts are of national importance because there are societal and economic consequences that transcend regional or subregional boundaries when a transportation network fails to perform as designed; a chapter focus is the emerging understanding of those impacts. Further, place-based, societally relevant understanding of transportation system resilience has been strongly informed by numerous recent local and state assessments that capture regionally relevant climate impacts on transportation and collectively inform national level risks and resilience. The chapter synthesizes the transportation communities’ national awareness of and readiness for climate threats that are most relevant in the United States.
Description of evidence base:
Chapter authors reviewed more than 60 recently published vulnerability assessments (details and links available through the online version of Figure 12.3) conducted by or for states and localities. The research approach involved internet searches, consultations with experts, and leveraging existing syntheses and compilations of transportation-related vulnerability assessments. The authors cast a broad net to ensure that as many assessments as possible were captured in the review. The studies were screened for a variety of metrics (for example, method of assessment, hazard type, asset category, vulnerability assessment type, economic analysis, and adaptation actions), and findings were used to inform the conclusions reached in this section.
New information and remaining uncertainties:
Most of the literature and the practitioner studies cited for Key Message 3 were gray literature, which is not peer-reviewed but serves the purpose of documenting the state of the practice. This section was not an assessment of the science (that is, the validity of individual study results was not assessed) but surveyed how transportation practitioners are assessing and managing climate impacts. The conclusions are not predicated on selection of or relative benefits of specific modeling or technological advances.
Practitioners’ motivations underlying changes in the state of the practice were derived from information in the studies and from cited literature. The authors of this section did not survey authors of individual vulnerability studies to determine their situation-specific motivations.
Assessment of confidence based on evidence:
There is high confidence regarding the efforts of state and local transportation agencies to understand climate impacts through assessments like those referenced in Figure 12.3. There is medium confidence in the reasons for delay in implementing resilience measures and the motivations for vulnerability assessments. There is no consensus on how emerging transportation technologies will develop in the coming years and how this change will affect climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience.
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