--- - attributes: ~ caption: The U.S. Caribbean includes the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and the territory of the U.S. Virgin Islands. The region includes seven inhabited islands and nearly 800 smaller islands and cays. chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-05-31T03:26:05 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/rate_of_change-tmax.yaml identifier: rate_of_change-tmax lat_max: 90 lat_min: -90 lon_max: -180 lon_min: 180 ordinal: 1 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:27 time_end: 2010-11-04T04:00:00 time_start: 2010-11-04T04:00:00 title: U.S. Caribbean Region uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/rate_of_change-tmax url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "The figure shows the connections between climate-related impacts (ocean acidification and warming as well as severe storms), responses of marine habitats and species to these impacts, and, ultimately, the effects to ecosystem services (such as fisheries and shoreline protection) and, in turn, the human community. Specifically, the figure depicts how degradation of coral reefs due to climate change is expected to affect fisheries and the economies that depend on them as habitat is lost. The figure also shows how reef degradation decreases shoreline protection for local communities, which affects the economy and human populations more generally. Source: adapted from Pendleton et al. 2016.{{< tbib '78' '714590d9-dbb7-4ada-b500-fce4f2cf46ca' >}}. Photo credits: NOAA." chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-03-27T21:43:52 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/coral-reef-services.yaml identifier: coral-reef-services lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 10 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:29 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reef Ecosystems and Societal Implications uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/coral-reef-services url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Examples of coral farming in the U.S. Caribbean and Florida demonstrate different types of structures used for growing fragments from branching corals. Coral farming is a strategy meant to improve the reef community and ecosystem function, including for fish species. The U.S Caribbean Islands, Florida, Hawai‘i, and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands face similar threats from coral bleaching and mortality due to warming ocean surface waters and ocean acidification. Degradation of coral reefs is expected to negatively affect fisheries and the economies that depend on them as habitat is lost in both regions. While coral farming may provide some targeted recovery, current knowledge and efforts are not nearly advanced enough to compensate for projected losses from bleaching and acidification. Photo credits: (top left) Carlos Pacheco, USFWS; (bottom left) NOAA; (right) Florida Fish and Wildlife (CC BY-ND 2.0)." chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-04-03T20:46:17 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/usc_coral-nurseries.yaml identifier: usc_coral-nurseries lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 11 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:31 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: ': Coral Farming Can Increase the Extent and Diversity of Coral Reefs' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/usc_coral-nurseries url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'Puerto Rico’s Luis Muñoz Marín (LMM) international airport is already at risk from extreme weather and climate-related events and is expected to become more vulnerable in the future as a result of continuing sea level rise. Photo credit: Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-04-03T20:47:24 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/transportation.yaml identifier: transportation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 12 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:32 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: 'Critical Infrastructure at Risk, San Juan Metro Area' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/transportation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'Culebra’s Mayor and community members worked on the participatory maps to identify risks, important natural resources, infrastructure, and important services to the community in Culebra. This exercise allowed them to gather information about issues in the territory that are important to the community but not commonly reflected in maps. Photo credit: Vanessa Marrero, Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-04-03T20:47:02 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/assessing_vulnerability.yaml identifier: assessing_vulnerability lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 13 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:35 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Assessing Vulnerability with Communities uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/assessing_vulnerability url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure illustrates the deviation from the long-term (1970–2016) average annual number of days exceeding 90°F, based on data from eight climate stations in Puerto Rico. Source: University of Puerto Rico.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-22T00:47:43 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/90-deg-days.yaml identifier: 90-deg-days lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 14 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:37 time_end: 2016-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1971-01-01T00:00:00 title: Days Above 90°F in Puerto Rico uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/90-deg-days url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'In September 2017, the U.S. Caribbean region was impacted by two major hurricanes: Irma (Category 5) and Maria (Categories 4 and 5). This figure shows the hurricanes’ tracks across both the Caribbean and the U.S. Caribbean region, as well as some of the impacts felt throughout the region. Sources: (tropical cyclone tracks) NOAA NCEI and ERT, Inc. Photo credits: (A) Ricardo Burgos; (B) Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico DNER; \(C) Michael Doig, NOAA; (D) Joel Figuero; (E) Greg Guannel, The University of the Virgin Islands' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-03-27T22:16:19 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/2017-hurricane-impacts.yaml identifier: 2017-hurricane-impacts lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 15 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:39 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Hurricane Impacts in 2017 uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/2017-hurricane-impacts url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'Residential and vessel damages caused by Hurricane Maria in 2017, at (left) Palmas del Mar and (right) Punta Santiago, Humacao, Puerto Rico. Photo credits: (left) Ernesto Díaz, Puerto Rico DNER; (right) Vanessa Marrero, Puerto Rico DNER.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-04-03T20:45:23 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/hurricane-maria-1.yaml identifier: hurricane-maria-1 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 16 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:40 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Hurricane Maria Damage uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/hurricane-maria-1 url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'These maps show the maximum extent of each registered drought between 2000 and 2016 by the U.S. Drought Monitor. While six drought events were registered, the most severe of these occurred between 2014 and 2016, with extreme conditions covering the eastern half of the main island of Puerto Rico. The five events prior to 2014 were registered as moderate drought and were short-lived in comparison. Source: USDA Forest Service.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-06T17:13:53 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/maximum_extent_2000_2016_96.yaml identifier: maximum_extent_2000_2016_96 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 17 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:41 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Maximum Extent of Drought uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/maximum_extent_2000_2016_96 url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'Some of the organizations working on climate risk assessment and management in the Caribbean are shown. Joint regional efforts to address climate challenges include the implementation of adaptation measures to reduce natural, social, and economic vulnerabilities, as well as actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Sources: NOAA and the USDA Caribbean Climate Hub.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-05T23:19:21 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/regional-partnerships.yaml identifier: regional-partnerships lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 18 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:43 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Climate Risk Management Organizations uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/regional-partnerships url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: '(top) Key indicators for monitoring climate variability and change in the U.S. Caribbean include sea level rise, ocean temperature and acidity, air temperature, rainfall patterns, frequency of extreme events, and changes in wildlife habitats. (bottom) Changes in these climate indicators result in environmental and social impacts to natural ecosystems, infrastructure, and society, including degradation of coral and marine habitats, increased coastal flooding and erosion, decrease in agricultural productivity, water supply shortages, negative effects on communities’ livelihoods and on human health, as well as economic challenges and decreased tourism appeal. Source: Puerto Rico Department of Natural and Environmental Resources.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-03-27T22:22:54 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/indicators-and-impacts.yaml identifier: indicators-and-impacts lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 2 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:45 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Climate Indicators and Impacts uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/indicators-and-impacts url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Observed and projected temperature changes are shown as compared to the 1951–1980 average. Observed data are for 1950–2017, and the range of model simulations for the historical period is for 1950–2005. The range of projected temperature changes from global climate models is shown for 2006–2100 under a lower (RCP4.5) and a higher (RCP8.5) scenario (see the Scenario Products section of App. 3). Projections from two regional climate models are shown for 2036–2065, and they align with those from global models for the same period.{{< tbib '29' '8b59c4bd-ba59-4567-9f5d-9c2422b7e05b' >}},{{< tbib '30' '66a435ae-179c-49f4-981b-248d647b9579' >}} Sources: NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, and USGS." chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-05-31T03:26:25 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/obs_proj_temp_change-pr.yaml identifier: obs_proj_temp_change-pr lat_max: 18.50 lat_min: 17.95 lon_max: -65.28 lon_min: -67.85 ordinal: 3 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:47 time_end: 2100-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1950-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed and Projected Temperature Change for Puerto Rico uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/obs_proj_temp_change-pr url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "This figure shows the projected percent change in annual precipitation over the U.S. Caribbean region for the period 2040–2060 compared to 1985–2005 based on the results of two regional climate model simulations.{{< tbib '29' '8b59c4bd-ba59-4567-9f5d-9c2422b7e05b' >}},{{< tbib '30' '66a435ae-179c-49f4-981b-248d647b9579' >}} These simulations downscale two global models for the higher scenario (RCP8.5){{< tbib '26' '75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1' >}} and show that within-island changes are projected to exceed a 10% reduction in annual rainfall. Uncertainty remains as to the location of the largest reductions within the islands. Projections of precipitation change for the U.S. Virgin Islands are particularly uncertain because of model limitations related to resolving these smaller islands. Source: Bowden et al. 2018.{{< tbib '30' '66a435ae-179c-49f4-981b-248d647b9579' >}}" chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-05-31T03:27:11 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/rate_of_change-80-15.yaml identifier: rate_of_change-80-15 lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 4 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:49 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Precipitation Change for Puerto Rico uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/rate_of_change-80-15 url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: 'This figure represents an annual time series from 1993 to 2016 of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2; black line) , sea surface temperature (red line), and seawater pH (blue line) for the Caribbean region. The Caribbean ocean is subject to changes in surface pH and temperature due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The oceans have the capacity to not only absorb heat from the air (leading to ocean warming) but also to absorb some of the CO2 in the atmosphere, causing more acidic (lower pH) oceans. Continued ocean acidification and warming have potentially detrimental consequences for marine life and dependent coastal communities in the Caribbean islands. Source: University of Puerto Rico.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-05-31T12:25:41 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/testnc4_1.yaml identifier: testnc4_1 lat_max: 30 lat_min: 15 lon_max: 90 lon_min: 60 ordinal: 5 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:50 time_end: 2016-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1993-01-01T00:00:00 title: Ocean Chemistry and Temperature uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/testnc4_1 url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: '(top) Observed sea level rise trends in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands reflect an increase in sea level of about 0.08 inches (2.0 mm) per year for the period 1962–2017 for Puerto Rico and for 1975–2017 for the U.S. Virgin Islands. The bottom panels show a closer look at more recent trends from 2000 to 2017 that measure a rise in sea level of about 0.24 inches (6.0 mm) per year. Projections of sea level rise are shown under three different scenarios of Intermediate-Low (1–2 feet), Intermediate (3–4 feet), and Extreme (9–11 feet) sea level rise. The scenarios depict the range of future sea level rise based on factors such as global greenhouse gas emissions and the loss of glaciers and ice sheets. Sources: NOAA NCEI and CICS-NC.' chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-05T23:04:29 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/sea-level.yaml identifier: sea-level lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 6 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:51 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/sea-level url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "This figure shows ten-year moving averages of projected annual streamflow leaving Lago La Plata and Lago Loíza. Projections were developed using an estimation of water supply entering the reservoirs and an estimation of withdrawals. The former was developed using a range of global climate models (GCMs; shading indicates averages from all GCMs used in the study) and the mean of that range (gray line). The latter was developed using a conservative population growth rate. Annual streamflow is modeled under a higher emissions scenario (SRES A2; left panel) and a lower emissions scenario (SRES B1; right panel). The solid black line is the historical streamflow through 2012.{{< tbib '46' 'a045f06c-0964-4286-9b5a-9b625da4eb2d' >}} It is important to note these are the best estimates available for projected streamflow and use the older generation of GCMs, which project more drying for the region.{{< tbib '28' '56d77153-c8fc-4fcf-a7f0-fa0e843936f1' >}} Source: adapted from Van Beusekom et al. 2016.{{< tbib '46' 'a045f06c-0964-4286-9b5a-9b625da4eb2d' >}}" chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-05T23:05:16 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/stream-flow.yaml identifier: stream-flow lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 7 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:53 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Projected Change in Annual Streamflow uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/stream-flow url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "Tropical montane cloud forests in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico are characterized by the frequent presence of clouds, reduced tree height, a high number of endemic and endangered species, and high water content of the soil due to reduced sunlight. Cloud forests around the world are vulnerable due to the warming and drying conditions that are expected with climate change.{{< tbib '52' 'a7c55896-56c4-4d2f-80f3-37a0eec9709c' >}} Cloud forests on low mountains are especially vulnerable, as drying and warming conditions can increase the elevation at which clouds form, thereby reducing or possibly eliminating the cloud cover shrouding the mountain peaks.{{< tbib '53' '2c61f40b-2033-43af-8b45-b0635840d008' >}},{{< tbib '54' '77872e95-b71c-4c52-bb70-301748abfb13' >}},{{< tbib '55' '0267391d-4675-4cc3-a8cb-805c5d49cf6e' >}} Photo credit: Grizelle González, USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry." chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2018-04-03T20:46:37 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/cloud-forest.yaml identifier: cloud-forest lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:54 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Cloud Forests Are Vulnerable to Climate Change uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/cloud-forest url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information - attributes: ~ caption: "The diagram demonstrates how coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean are likely to change in potentially warmer and more acidic waters caused by climate change, including elevated sea surface temperatures and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) levels. The severity of these impacts increases as CO2 levels and sea surface temperatures rise. If conditions stabilized with concentrations of atmospheric CO2 at 380 ppm (parts per million), coral would continue to be carbonate accreting, meaning reefs would still form and have corals. At 450–500 ppm, reef erosion could exceed calcification, meaning that reef structure is likely to erode and coral cover is likely to decline dramatically. Beyond 500 ppm, corals are not expected to survive.{{< tbib '77' 'b09adbe5-6a17-4d3c-ab96-b3d9e306af67' >}} Sources: NOAA and USFS." chapter_identifier: us-caribbean create_dt: 2017-06-05T23:07:06 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/corals-and-people.yaml identifier: corals-and-people lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 9 report_identifier: nca4 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2018-12-06T14:06:55 time_end: ~ time_start: ~ title: Climate Change Effects on Coral Reefs uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/figure/corals-and-people url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. Contact original figure source for information