Sea levels have already risen and will likely continue to rise in the future. Based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, glacial melt, and ice sheet loss, there is high confidence and likelihood in these sea level rise projections.
' contributors: [] evidence: "The Key Message and subsequent narrative text are based on the best available information for the U.S. Caribbean. There are not many studies on or projections for sea level rise for the U.S. Caribbean. Therefore, evidence of sea level rise used for this report comes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator.{{< tbib '95' 'b46d7ec8-76b0-4469-bc00-9348475efd0f' >}} To calculate the Intermediate and High scenarios, the USACE uses modified National Research Council (NRC) curves, the most recent IPCC projections, and modified NRC projections with local rate of vertical land movement.{{< tbib '95' 'b46d7ec8-76b0-4469-bc00-9348475efd0f' >}} The four NOAA estimates integrate data ranging from tide gauge records for the lowest scenario to projected ocean warming from the IPCC’s global sea level rise projections combined with the maximum projection for glacier and ice sheet loss for 2100 for the highest scenario. The sea level rise analysis mainly focuses on data from two tide gauges chosen to be representative of the region, one in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and the other in Charlotte Amalie, USVI. There are two others in the region that provide sea level trend data located in Magueyes, Puerto Rico, and Lime Tree Bay, USVI.
Additional evidence that sea level is rising is well documented in Chapter 9: Oceans and in the Climate Science Special Report. There are also numerous empirical examples of sea level rise and its effects in Puerto Rico and the USVI, where beaches have been reduced by erosion, roads have been lost, and access to schools has been affected.
" files: [] gcmd_keywords: - definition: A geographical area where the land meets the sea or ocean. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/b1f63bf1-a547-4189-9c7e-66a8d11facc4.yaml identifier: b1f63bf1-a547-4189-9c7e-66a8d11facc4 label: COASTAL AREAS parent_identifier: fee25cad-7ffe-4ee2-a6f2-8116b8a0a707 uri: /gcmd_keyword/b1f63bf1-a547-4189-9c7e-66a8d11facc4 - definition: 'Any measurement or statistic of, related, or based on the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.' href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/cdbe5ef5-408d-489d-b6ff-4482ce4a99c7.yaml identifier: cdbe5ef5-408d-489d-b6ff-4482ce4a99c7 label: ECONOMIC RESOURCES parent_identifier: fb93d937-c17c-45d0-a9e3-ca5c8a800ca8 uri: /gcmd_keyword/cdbe5ef5-408d-489d-b6ff-4482ce4a99c7 - definition: An increase in the average height of the sea surface over a vertical datum. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/0afaaa5e-f88c-4c1f-95c1-1faa0148885a.yaml identifier: 0afaaa5e-f88c-4c1f-95c1-1faa0148885a label: SEA LEVEL RISE parent_identifier: b6fd22ab-dca7-4dfa-8812-913453b5695b uri: /gcmd_keyword/0afaaa5e-f88c-4c1f-95c1-1faa0148885a - definition: |- A rise above normal sea level on the coast where the Ekman effect, from strong winds, causes the shallow waters to pile up against the shore. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/9edd23d0-68a9-4bae-8887-705058f48ba7.yaml identifier: 9edd23d0-68a9-4bae-8887-705058f48ba7 label: STORM SURGE parent_identifier: b6fd22ab-dca7-4dfa-8812-913453b5695b uri: /gcmd_keyword/9edd23d0-68a9-4bae-8887-705058f48ba7 - definition: 'Water covering previously dry area: a very large amount of water that has overflowed from a source such as a river or a broken pipe onto a previously dry area.' href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/fd03d204-4391-4e98-8142-8b8efa235231.yaml identifier: fd03d204-4391-4e98-8142-8b8efa235231 label: FLOODS parent_identifier: ec0e2762-f57a-4fdc-b395-c8d7d5590d18 uri: /gcmd_keyword/fd03d204-4391-4e98-8142-8b8efa235231 - definition: |- The process by which soil, rock or sand is gradually worn away by water or wind action. href: https://data.globalchange.gov/gcmd_keyword/cd7a7748-7231-4a73-b85c-b5696066230a.yaml identifier: cd7a7748-7231-4a73-b85c-b5696066230a label: EROSION parent_identifier: b6fd22ab-dca7-4dfa-8812-913453b5695b uri: /gcmd_keyword/cd7a7748-7231-4a73-b85c-b5696066230a href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-3.yaml identifier: key-message-20-3 ordinal: 3 parents: [] process: 'The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion (very likely, very high confidence), likely leading to diminished beach area (likely, high confidence), loss of storm surge barriers (likely, high confidence), decreased tourism (likely, medium confidence), and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being (likely, medium confidence). Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.
' uncertainties: 'Sea level rise is already occurring. However, the uncertainty lies in how much of an increase will take place in the future and how coastal social and ecological systems will respond. There are various models and projections to estimate this number, but it is influenced by many unknown factors, such as the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions and how quickly glaciers and ice sheets melt. Another major uncertainty lies in humans’ abilities to combat or adapt to these changes. The scale at which people and cities will be affected depends on the actions taken to reduce risk. Lastly, the experience of sea level rise on each coast and community is different, depending on land subsidence or accretion, land use, and erosion; thus, the severity of effects might differ based on these factors.
Due to the levels of uncertainty surrounding the projections, we focused much attention on the highest scenarios, as fewer consequences exist for planning in terms of the higher scenario (RCP8.5).
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-3 url: ~