There is high confidence that increasing ocean temperatures, changes in ocean acidity, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storms are extremely likely to affect coastal and marine resources. Large storm events within the past decade have resulted in significant effects on marine resources, particularly coral habitats and organisms that rely on them. There is medium confidence in predictions that coral habitats will likely continue to decline throughout the Caribbean, with associated effects on resources dependent on these habitats; although, scientific studies are still needed in terms of climate change effects on fisheries resources, particularly for species that are found in offshore waters or are pelagic. Changes in coral habitats are already occurring as evidenced by massive coral bleaching events (including a three-year global-level bleaching event from 2015–2017) and the increase in these events. Such changes in bleaching events are due to rising sea surface temperatures. There is high confidence that there have been changes in ocean pH and medium confidence on the ecological effects. Due to the lack of studies on the social consequences of climate change and associated losses of resources such as fisheries, there is medium confidence that effects on coastal and marine resources resulting from climate change will affect island economies. These effects can be a result of changes in availability and condition of fishery resources, loss of reefs and other coral communities that serve as coastal barriers, and effects on tourism due to loss of the resources that are primary attractions for visitors.
There is medium confidence in the ecological effects that will result due to changes in ocean pH. The CO2 system of seawater is well understood and established. As such, the understanding of the basic equilibria governing the process of ocean acidification dates back to at least 1960{{< tbib '168' 'b20e8c2b-cfb8-48b6-85c6-c981c361e267' >}} and represents a foundational understanding of modern chemical oceanography. The ecological consequences of human-induced changes to the system (that is, ocean acidification) is, however, a considerably new field. Both themes were assessed considering recent findings and based on adequate observed local data (for example, atmospheric pCO2 [carbon dioxide partial pressure] values are based on measurements of weekly air samples from St. Croix, the USVI, the United States, and Ragged Point, Barbados), complemented with empirical models. Projected changes in climate for the Caribbean islands were based on the future projections of fossil fuel emissions driven by reasonable models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).{{< tbib '169' 'bc140b4c-c2d9-4d99-a684-5c054dc5134f' >}} Additional empirical species response data would be useful for increasing the understanding of expected effects of ocean acidification on species and habitats in the Caribbean.
" evidence: "In 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) listed elkhorn and staghorn corals as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act, with persistent elevated sea surface temperatures and sea level rise being two of the key factors influencing the listing decision.{{< tbib '158' '9d974b61-97ea-4778-977d-26701052c8e9' >}} The Acropora Biological Review Team (2005) found that the number of hurricanes affecting reef ecosystems in the Caribbean has increased over the past two decades (2 hurricanes in the 1970s, 6 in the 1980s, and 12 in the 1990s). Sea surface temperature is expected to continue rising, and this implies an increasing threat to elkhorn and staghorn corals from bleaching-induced mortality and possibly an exacerbation of disease effects. In 2014, NMFS listed an additional 5 species of Atlantic/Caribbean corals (lobed, mountainous star, boulder star, pillar, and rough cactus) as threatened and reevaluated the listing of elkhorn and staghorn corals, confirming them as threatened species; it also listed 15 Indo-Pacific coral species as threatened,{{< tbib '159' '8960de56-9b32-4544-9255-046a9ef45e0d' >}} with two of the key factors being ocean warming and ocean acidification. Brainard et al.{{< tbib '159' '8960de56-9b32-4544-9255-046a9ef45e0d' >}} found that ocean warming and related effects of climate change have already created a clear and present threat to many corals that will likely continue into the future and can be assessed with certainty out to 2100. Increases in human population densities and activity levels in the coastal zone are expected to continue, meaning the vulnerability of these populations and infrastructure will likely continue increasing with climate change.{{< tbib '160' '895e2c92-d614-4154-8509-7689918c8697' >}} Direct measurements at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study station shows that surface ocean acidity has increased by about 12% and aragonite saturation (Ωarg) has decreased by about 8% over the past three decades.{{< tbib '161' 'ade3d353-6612-4e45-96d3-9269de56eda0' >}} These values agreed with those reported across the Caribbean{{< tbib '162' '0e312df5-ad3d-4709-8b58-8cea86d26415' >}} and Atlantic regions{{< tbib '18' 'd51156cc-0034-4afc-b2b7-1ad99efde458' >}},{{
Many coastal regions already experience low surface seawater pH and Ωarg conditions (localized or coastal ocean acidification) due to processes other than CO2 uptake. As a result, the effect of ocean acidification on coastal zones can be several times higher and faster than typically expected for oceanic waters.{{< tbib '163' 'dc5e5365-8b0f-4a21-93b4-c6a822be824d' >}}
Caribbean coral reefs in the Bahamas, Belize, Bonaire, and Grand Cayman are already experiencing significant reductions in carbonate production rates, with 37% of surveyed sites showing net erosion.{{< tbib '164' '0841a7ce-1022-4cf7-be4f-5c20d3b19f2a' >}} Friedrich et al. (2012).{{< tbib '66' 'a03f3916-2084-4353-bce4-adac93801617' >}} concluded that calcification rates may have already dropped by about 15% within the Caribbean with respect to their preindustrial values.
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-2.yaml identifier: key-message-20-2 ordinal: 2 process: 'The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Marine ecological systems provide key ecosystem services such as commercial and recreational fisheries and coastal protection. These systems are threatened by changes in ocean surface temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, and changes in the frequency and intensity of storm events. Degradation of coral and other marine habitats can result in changes in the distribution of species that use these habitats and the loss of live coral cover, sponges, and other key species (very likely, high confidence). These changes will likely disrupt valuable ecosystem services, producing subsequent effects on Caribbean island economies (likely, medium confidence).
' uncertainties: "The link between climate stressors such as increasing sea surface temperatures and bleaching response and increasing prevalence of disease in corals is postulated. There is some scientific evidence indicating a link, but it is hard to make definitive conclusions. Effects of climate change on fisheries in the Caribbean have not been as well studied as the effects on marine habitats, particularly coral reefs.{{< tbib '74' '94f95306-0dd9-43cf-8e70-9a379423f31d' >}},{{
Uncertainty with respect to ocean acidification is dominated by uncertainty about how ecosystems and organisms will respond, particularly due to multiple interactions with other stressors.
The value of the loss of ecosystem services to ocean acidification is unknown. Such losses are attributable to the degradation of ecosystems that support important economic marine species such as coral, conch, oysters, fish larvae, urchins, and pelagic fish in the Caribbean. There is strong evidence for decreasing carbonate production, calcification rates, coral cover, and biomass of major reef-building species throughout the Caribbean region. However, there is still not enough evidence to conclude that all these decreased ecosystem processes are due to ocean acidification.
There are only a few studies on ecosystem and organism responses to climate stressors (such as ocean warming) that consider ocean acidification in the Caribbean. For instance, low pH values could affect nursery areas of commercially important species such as tuna, presenting a source of vulnerability for the economy, but studies are scarce. Ocean acidification could also affect the food web dynamics at lower trophic levels and have physiological effects at larval stages that would likely cascade upward, affecting coral and fish recruitment.
The effects of ocean acidification on coral reefs, shellfish, fish, and marine mammals will likely cause an economic effect on fisheries, coastal protection, and tourism in the Caribbean. Ocean acidification can exacerbate the current global warming effects on coral reefs, and it will likely continue deteriorating reef conditions and cause ecological regime shifts from coral to algal reefs.{{< tbib '77' 'b09adbe5-6a17-4d3c-ab96-b3d9e306af67' >}},{{
Sea level rise is currently the most immediate and well-understood climate-related threat to mangroves.{{< tbib '70' 'c527429c-5661-477a-a6f4-1690355bcbd5' >}} It is not clear how mangroves will respond to elevated CO2, and some studies suggest increases may actually be beneficial to mangroves.{{< tbib '70' 'c527429c-5661-477a-a6f4-1690355bcbd5' >}} Similarly, in the Caribbean where temperatures are already high, increasing temperatures, as well as declines in rainfall and corresponding increases in soil salinity during periods of drought, will likely increase plant water stress and reduce productivity. There have been limited studies on the effects of climate change on seagrass beds; therefore, these effects remain uncertain.{{< tbib '69' '63aac7f9-5e82-4aff-ab62-75c12537612f' >}} Sea level rise that results in reduced sunlight due to increased water depths can lead to the loss of seagrass beds from deeper waters. As discussed previously, the loss or degradation of these habitats, which are part of the coral reef ecosystem and serve as nursery habitat for important nursery species, will likely contribute to declines in fishery productivity due to climate change.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-2 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: us-caribbean confidence: 'Sea levels have already risen and will likely continue to rise in the future. Based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, glacial melt, and ice sheet loss, there is high confidence and likelihood in these sea level rise projections.
' evidence: "The Key Message and subsequent narrative text are based on the best available information for the U.S. Caribbean. There are not many studies on or projections for sea level rise for the U.S. Caribbean. Therefore, evidence of sea level rise used for this report comes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator.{{< tbib '95' 'b46d7ec8-76b0-4469-bc00-9348475efd0f' >}} To calculate the Intermediate and High scenarios, the USACE uses modified National Research Council (NRC) curves, the most recent IPCC projections, and modified NRC projections with local rate of vertical land movement.{{< tbib '95' 'b46d7ec8-76b0-4469-bc00-9348475efd0f' >}} The four NOAA estimates integrate data ranging from tide gauge records for the lowest scenario to projected ocean warming from the IPCC’s global sea level rise projections combined with the maximum projection for glacier and ice sheet loss for 2100 for the highest scenario. The sea level rise analysis mainly focuses on data from two tide gauges chosen to be representative of the region, one in San Juan, Puerto Rico, and the other in Charlotte Amalie, USVI. There are two others in the region that provide sea level trend data located in Magueyes, Puerto Rico, and Lime Tree Bay, USVI.
Additional evidence that sea level is rising is well documented in Chapter 9: Oceans and in the Climate Science Special Report. There are also numerous empirical examples of sea level rise and its effects in Puerto Rico and the USVI, where beaches have been reduced by erosion, roads have been lost, and access to schools has been affected.
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-3.yaml identifier: key-message-20-3 ordinal: 3 process: 'The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Coasts are a central feature of Caribbean island communities. Coastal zones dominate island economies and are home to critical infrastructure, public and private property, cultural heritage, and natural ecological systems. Sea level rise, combined with stronger wave action and higher storm surges, will worsen coastal flooding and increase coastal erosion (very likely, very high confidence), likely leading to diminished beach area (likely, high confidence), loss of storm surge barriers (likely, high confidence), decreased tourism (likely, medium confidence), and negative effects on livelihoods and well-being (likely, medium confidence). Adaptive planning and nature-based strategies, combined with active community participation and traditional knowledge, are beginning to be deployed to reduce the risks of a changing climate.
' uncertainties: 'Sea level rise is already occurring. However, the uncertainty lies in how much of an increase will take place in the future and how coastal social and ecological systems will respond. There are various models and projections to estimate this number, but it is influenced by many unknown factors, such as the amount of future greenhouse gas emissions and how quickly glaciers and ice sheets melt. Another major uncertainty lies in humans’ abilities to combat or adapt to these changes. The scale at which people and cities will be affected depends on the actions taken to reduce risk. Lastly, the experience of sea level rise on each coast and community is different, depending on land subsidence or accretion, land use, and erosion; thus, the severity of effects might differ based on these factors.
Due to the levels of uncertainty surrounding the projections, we focused much attention on the highest scenarios, as fewer consequences exist for planning in terms of the higher scenario (RCP8.5).
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-3 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: us-caribbean confidence: 'There is high confidence that increasing temperatures threaten the health and well-being of people living in the U.S. Caribbean, especially in high-density urban areas where the UHI effect places further stress on city populations.
' evidence: 'In warm tropical areas like Puerto Rico and the USVI, higher summertime temperatures mean more energy is needed to cool buildings and homes, increasing the demand for energy. Heat episodes are becoming more common worldwide, including in tropical regions like the U.S. Caribbean. Higher frequency, duration, and intensity of heat episodes are triggering serious public health issues in San Juan. Heat poses a greater threat to health and well-being in high-density urban areas. Land use and land cover have affected local climate directly and indirectly, facilitating the urban heat island (UHI) effect, with potential effects on heat-related morbidity and mortality among urban populations.
' href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-4.yaml identifier: key-message-20-4 ordinal: 4 process: 'The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Natural and social systems adapt to the temperatures under which they evolve and operate. Changes to average and extreme temperatures have direct and indirect effects on organisms and strong interactions with hydrological cycles, resulting in a variety of impacts. Continued increases in average temperatures will likely lead to decreases in agricultural productivity, changes in habitats and wildlife distributions, and risks to human health, especially in vulnerable populations. As maximum and minimum temperatures increase, there are likely to be fewer cool nights and more frequent hot days, which will likely affect the quality of life in the U.S. Caribbean. (High Confidence)
' uncertainties: "Warming is evident. A remaining scientific question is how ecological and social systems that have established themselves in a particular location can adapt to higher average temperatures.{{< tbib '170' 'fd10f97c-39c6-4f3a-8306-aead1a368908' >}} Islands such as Puerto Rico are particularly vulnerable because of heat events associated with changes in both terrestrial and marine conditions. Although there is evidence suggesting that mortality relative to risk increases in San Juan due to extreme heat,{{< tbib '12' 'cb5c02d3-6e9e-4dc5-8eaa-b87f57030bbf' >}} this association is not completely understood on tropical islands like Puerto Rico and the USVI. Addressing such hazards can benefit from new strategies that seek to determine linkages between human health, rapid and synoptic environmental monitoring, and the research that helps improve the forecast of hazardous conditions for particular human population segments or for other organisms.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-4 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: us-caribbean confidence: 'There is high confidence that increasing frequency of extreme events threatens life, property, and economy in the region, given that the U.S. Caribbean’s vulnerable populations and fragile economies are continually exposed to climate extremes. There is medium confidence that the frequency and intensity of the most extreme hurricanes and droughts will likely increase. There is high confidence that extreme events will likely continue to affect human health and well-being, economic development and tourism, conservation, agriculture, and danger from flooding. There is high confidence that future recovery and cultural continuity will depend on significant and integrated resilience planning across the region, focusing on collaborative actions among stakeholders.
' evidence: "On both Puerto Rico and the USVI, disaster events have caused billions of dollars in property and crop damages.{{< tbib '171' 'cdbb39c1-4de9-4067-8ebc-24de32b50b57' >}} Over the years, disaster-induced casualties have declined in both territories. Tropical cyclones, particularly hurricanes, continue to generate the most severe economic damage across the U.S. Caribbean. Floods and droughts are challenging to manage for both territories, and these challenges may be exacerbated by climate change induced shifts in precipitation regimes.
Climate modeling for tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin, including the Caribbean region, points toward an increase in the frequency of more intense hurricanes.{{< tbib '135' '349482df-4a77-4802-8b39-14d5e63b946f' >}} An increase in days with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period is projected for Puerto Rico, based on statistically downscaled CMIP3 climate models.{{< tbib '28' '56d77153-c8fc-4fcf-a7f0-fa0e843936f1' >}} Changes in precipitation patterns are expected for Puerto Rico in the periods 2030–2050 and 2100, pointing toward an overall decrease in mean precipitation for different climate change scenarios.{{< tbib '7' '650b2907-85b1-4b76-a339-a9ec1703c5bd' >}},{{
While continental droughts typically affect vast regions, droughts affecting Puerto Rico and the USVI tend to vary significantly in extent and severity over smaller distances.{{< tbib '132' 'edd9a004-f859-41ae-9f93-80201c4ffd65' >}} Statistically downscaled climate projections for Puerto Rico suggest an increase of drought intensity (measured as the total annual dry days) and extremes (measured as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) due to an increase in mean and extreme temperatures and a decrease in precipitation.{{< tbib '7' '650b2907-85b1-4b76-a339-a9ec1703c5bd' >}}
An increase in mean atmospheric temperature has been observed across the U.S. Caribbean islands, particularly on Puerto Rico. An analysis of the observed temperatures across several NOAA weather stations in Puerto Rico showed rising temperature trends between 1970 and 2016.{{< tbib '172' 'e8d32931-3301-45c8-bfe7-b8e8b9fff6b6' >}} Following the principles established by the international Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices,{{< tbib '173' 'e6ecbe14-fe1b-46f8-bad5-bde9e4cc658a' >}} temperature extremes and trends were identified, indicating significant increases in rising annual temperatures and an increase in extreme heat episodes.
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-5.yaml identifier: key-message-20-5 ordinal: 5 process: 'The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Extreme events pose significant risks to life, property, and economy in the Caribbean, and some extreme events, such as flooding and droughts, are projected to increase in frequency and intensity (flooding as likely as not, medium confidence; droughts very likely, medium confidence). Increasing hurricane intensity and associated rainfall rates (likely, medium confidence) will likely affect human health and well-being, economic development, conservation, and agricultural productivity. Increased resilience will depend on collaboration and integrated planning, preparation, and responses across the region (high confidence).
' uncertainties: "There are still uncertainties as to how these projected changes in tropical Atlantic cyclone activity will affect the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation events. While an increase in days with more than 3 inches of rain per 24-hour period has been projected based on statistically downscaled CMIP3 models,{{< tbib '28' '56d77153-c8fc-4fcf-a7f0-fa0e843936f1' >}} more recent generations of GCMs do not show this increase in extreme rainfall events, and this adds uncertainty. Results from two dynamically downscaled climate models using the most recent generation of GCMs for the region do not show increases in the frequency of extreme events.{{< tbib '34' '744497bd-974c-497e-bf74-34ff514c0f83' >}}
At present, data pertaining to the costs and effects that are associated with extreme events and disasters are very limited and not readily accessible for government officials, disaster risk managers, or the general public. In the future, more accessible data could facilitate opportunities for more thorough analyses on the economic costs of extreme events for the U.S. Caribbean.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-5 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: us-caribbean confidence: 'There is high confidence that climate change will likely result in serious water supply shortages and in increased risks for agriculture production, human health, wildlife, and the socioeconomic development of Puerto Rico, the USVI, and the wider Caribbean region. The effects of climate change in the Caribbean region are likely to increase threats to life and infrastructure from sea level rise and extreme events; reduce the availability of fresh water, particularly during the dry season; negatively affect coral reef ecosystems; and cause health problems due to high temperatures and an increase in diseases.
' evidence: "Cross-regional and international cooperation is a mechanism that will likely reduce climate vulnerability and risks in the U.S. Caribbean, because it builds capacity and leverages resources in a region that has low adaptive capacity, due in part to the high costs of mitigation and adaptation relative to gross domestic product.{{< tbib '1' '63e4948c-5b46-4deb-a37b-9f363a1a8316' >}},{{
The majority of our Key Messages were developed over the course of two separate author meetings. The first occurred March 9–10, 2017, and the second on May 3, 2017. Both meetings were held in San Juan, Puerto Rico; however, people were also able to join remotely from Washington, DC, Raleigh, North Carolina, and the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI). In addition, the author team held weekly conference calls and organized separate Key Message calls and meetings to review and draft information that was integral to our chapter. To develop the Key Messages, the team also deliberated with outside experts who are acknowledged as our technical contributors.
Shared knowledge, collaborative research and monitoring, and sustainable institutional adaptive capacity can help support and speed up disaster recovery, reduce loss of life, enhance food security, and improve economic opportunity in the U.S. Caribbean. Increased regional cooperation and stronger partnerships in the Caribbean can expand the region’s collective ability to achieve effective actions that build climate change resilience, reduce vulnerability to extreme events, and assist in recovery efforts (very likely, high confidence)
' uncertainties: 'There is high certainty that Caribbean island states are being affected by climate change, but the rate and degree of effects vary across countries due to the differences in environmental and socioeconomic conditions. Examples of regional cooperation efforts to share knowledge, conduct collaborative research, and develop joint projects have increased the adaptive capacity in the region; however, sustaining such efforts across the region remains a challenge. As efforts for regional coordination, cooperation, and information exchange evolve, evidence of the benefits of collaboration can be better assessed.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/us-caribbean/finding/key-message-20-6 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: midwest confidence: 'There is very high confidence that increases in warm-season absolute humidity and precipitation very likely have eroded soils, created favorable conditions for pests and pathogens, and degraded quality of stored grain. There is medium confidence that projected increases in moisture, coupled with rising mid-summer temperatures, likely will be detrimental to crop and livestock production and put future gains in commodity grain production at risk by mid-century. Projected changes in precipitation, coupled with rising extreme temperatures, provide medium confidence that by mid-century Midwest agricultural productivity likely will decline to levels of the 1980s without major technological advances.
' evidence: "Humidity is increasing. Feng et al. (2016){{< tbib '3' '28675f8a-8858-40ac-b53a-710b489bca07' >}} show plots of trends in surface and 850 hPa specific humidity of 0.4 and 0.2 g/kg/decade, respectively, from 1979–2014 for the April–May–June period across the Midwest. These represent increases of approximately 5% and 3% per decade, respectively. Automated Surface Observing Stations in Iowa{{< tbib '320' '9dc60b30-9bb1-46c8-aaea-9dba602c2d05' >}} having dew point records of this length and season show dew point temperature increases of about 1°F per decade. Brown and DeGaetano (2013){{< tbib '49' '83d23b83-2a04-4a6b-bdfa-caa8b54b1ccf' >}} show increasing dew points in all seasons throughout the Midwest. Observed changes in annual average maximum temperature for the Midwest over the 20th century (Vose et al. 2017,{{< tbib '54' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Table 6.1) have been less than 1°F. However, future projected changes in annual average temperature (Vose et al. 2017,{{< tbib '54' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Table 6.4), as well as in both warmest day of the year and warmest 5-day 1-in-10 year events (Vose et al. 2017,{{< tbib '54' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Table 6.5), are higher for the Midwest than in any other region of the United States.
Garbrecht et al. (2007){{< tbib '321' '232aa0b0-6c75-46f6-90df-85b58cfbb3b1' >}} state that precipitation changes are sufficient to require U.S. policy changes for agricultural lands. The Soil Erosion Site (http://soilerosion.net/water_erosion.html) describes the soil erosion process and provides links to soil erosion models.{{< tbib '322' '4baac62e-5892-4a0a-b435-e2cedc62f9a2' >}} Nearing et al. (2004){{< tbib '44' '43e7bfdb-30c7-407d-89ae-e94f7bff36a1' >}} report that global climate models project increases in erosivity (the ability or power of rain to cause soil loss) across the northern states of the United States over the 21st century.
Spoilage in stored grain is caused by mold growth and insect activity, which are related to the moisture content and temperature of the stored grain.{{< tbib '323' 'c65ba7e2-12f7-4a02-82c1-622c0aeb8711' >}} The ability of fungi to produce mycotoxins, including aflatoxin and fumonisins, is largely influenced by temperature, relative humidity, insect attack, and stress conditions of the plants.{{< tbib '57' '1ca7e70d-66b3-42e1-9a68-31b976d2622f' >}},{{
Germination of wheat declined in storage facilities where moisture level increased with time.{{< tbib '326' '5c614c37-2c94-413e-85d1-28d44b88d452' >}} Freshly harvested, high-moisture content grain must be dried to minimize (or prevent) excessive respiration and mold growth on grains.{{< tbib '327' '64513762-d666-447a-b19d-18bcd9cb0b80' >}} The storage life of grain is shortened significantly when stored at warm temperatures. One day of holding warm, wet corn before drying can decrease storage life by 50%.{{< tbib '45' '858d3935-f2b4-46d1-8c20-4fdf50922067' >}}
Feng et al. (2016){{< tbib '3' '28675f8a-8858-40ac-b53a-710b489bca07' >}} show humidity is rising in the Midwest in the warm season. Cook et al. (2008){{< tbib '4' 'e6bbc070-a723-4341-be6e-09bbd3248a20' >}} show that the factors leading to these humidity increases (warming Gulf of Mexico and strengthening of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet) will increase in a warming climate.
The ability of fungi to produce mycotoxins is largely influenced by temperature, relative humidity, insect attack, and stress conditions of the plants.{{< tbib '324' '2688cf64-d71f-4e21-84ad-f5cae499ed61' >}} More extreme rainfall events would favor formation of Deoxynivalenol, also known as vomitoxin.{{< tbib '57' '1ca7e70d-66b3-42e1-9a68-31b976d2622f' >}}
Hatfield et al. (2011,{{< tbib '50' 'a2704ef3-5be4-41ee-8dfa-4c82e416a292' >}} Table 1) give the relationships between temperature and vegetative function as well as reproductive capacity. This work was expanded and updated in Walthall et al. (2012).{{< tbib '328' '3baf471f-751f-4d68-9227-4197fdbb6e5d' >}}
Mader et al. (2010){{< tbib '74' '6a1bc03d-a204-4f8c-9779-73ee5c44e413' >}} report a comprehensive climate index for describing the effect of ambient temperature, relative humidity, radiation, and wind speed on environmental stress in animals. St-Pierre et al. (2003){{< tbib '329' 'ef0e1901-7533-4af4-b3b8-840a78ca4a49' >}} provide tables estimating economic losses in dairy due to reduced reproduction. The data show a strong gradient across the Midwest (with losses in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana being three times the losses in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan under the current climate). Temperature and humidity increases projected for the Midwest will increase economic losses across the entire region. Lewis and Bunter (2010){{< tbib '330' '5eace42f-0819-4bec-a799-23c78ad4b486' >}} document heat stress effects of temperature on pig production and reproduction.
St-Pierre et al. (2003){{< tbib '329' 'ef0e1901-7533-4af4-b3b8-840a78ca4a49' >}} provide tables estimating economic losses in dairy, beef, swine, and poultry, resulting in declines from both meat/milk/egg production. The data show a strong gradient across the Midwest (with losses in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana being twice the losses in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan under the current climate). Temperature and humidity increases projected for the Midwest will increase losses across the entire region. Babinszky et al. (2011){{< tbib '75' '3f7db557-5407-40cf-9078-d5be0f25ee0a' >}} identified temperature thresholds for meat/egg/milk production, beyond which performance declines. The adverse effects of heat stress include high mortality, decreased feed consumption, poor body weight gain and meat quality in broiler chickens, and poor laying rate, egg weight, and shell quality in laying hens.{{< tbib '76' '06f01e99-7afa-4be6-93ab-881cab8e56b8' >}}
Takle et al. (2013){{< tbib '65' '6e8fbacd-aff6-48ab-a950-5a8df2799046' >}} found that by mid-century, yields of corn and soybean are projected to fall well below projections based on extrapolation of trends since 1970 even under an optimistic economic scenario, with larger interannual variability in yield and total production. Liang et al. (2017){{< tbib '2' 'c5857041-2594-47cf-a6bc-3fab052fa903' >}} report that the ratio of measured agricultural output to measured inputs would drop by an average 3% to 4% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios and could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Schauberger et al. (2017){{< tbib '66' '2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f' >}} found that the impact of exposure to temperatures from 30°C to 36°C projected for the end of the century under RCP8.5 creates yield losses of 49% for maize and 40% for soybean.
According to Easterling et al. (2017),{{< tbib '193' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}} evidence suggests that droughts have become less frequent in the Midwest as the region has become wetter. However, they note that “future higher temperatures will likely lead to greater frequencies and magnitudes of agricultural droughts throughout the continental United States as the resulting increases in evapotranspiration outpace projected precipitation increases.
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-1.yaml identifier: key-message-21-1 ordinal: 1 process: "The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
The Midwest is a major producer of a wide range of food and animal feed for national consumption and international trade. Increases in warm-season absolute humidity and precipitation have eroded soils, created favorable conditions for pests and pathogens, and degraded the quality of stored grain (very likely, very high confidence). Projected changes in precipitation, coupled with rising extreme temperatures before mid-century, will reduce Midwest agricultural productivity to levels of the 1980s without major technological advances (likely, medium confidence).
' uncertainties: "Global and regional climate models do not simulate well the dynamical structure of mesoscale convective systems in the Midwest, which are the critical “end processes” that create intense precipitation from increasing amounts of moisture evaporated over the Gulf of Mexico and transported by low-level jets (LLJs) into the Midwest. Secondly, the strengthening of future LLJs depends on strengthening of both the Bermuda surface high pressure and the lee surface low over the eastern Rocky Mountains. Confirming simulations of this in future climates are needed. Global and regional climate models do simulate future scenarios having increasing temperatures for the region with high confidence (a necessary ingredient for increased humidity). There is uncertainty of the temperature thresholds for crops because, as pointed out by Schauberger et al. (2017),{{< tbib '66' '2967c8a9-063e-4118-92a4-71f266341e2f' >}} some negative impacts of higher temperatures can be overcome through increased water availability. Agricultural yield models, productivity models, and integrated assessment models each provide different ways of looking at agricultural futures, and each of these three types of models has high levels of uncertainty. However, all point to agriculture futures that fail to maintain upward historical trends.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-1 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: midwest confidence: 'There is high confidence that the interactions of warming temperatures, precipitation changes, and drought with insect pests, invasive plants, and tree pathogens will likely lead to increased tree mortality of some species, reducing productivity of some forests. There is very high confidence that these interactions will very likely result in the decline of some economically or culturally important tree species. Additionally, there is high confidence that suitable habitat conditions for tree species will change as temperatures increase and precipitation patterns change, making it likely that forest composition will be altered and forest ecosystems may shift to new forest types. Due to uncertainties on species migration rates and forest management responses to climate changes, there is medium confidence that by the end of the century, some forest ecosystems are as likely as not to convert to non-forest ecosystems.
' evidence: "Multiple ecosystem vulnerability assessments that have been conducted for major forested ecoregions within the Midwest{{< tbib '89' '8b4159ec-1edb-4fab-8af5-10a8cdec8fb5' >}},{{
Significant indirect impacts to forests are expected as warming increases the negative effects of invasive plants, insect pests, and tree pathogens of forests.{{< tbib '105' '98e8338c-3c49-49f7-9334-d4c28a901ad0' >}},{{
Direct and indirect impacts of climate change may lead to the decline of culturally{{< tbib '88' '7e39f05f-d63f-473a-87c3-93d733ea178b' >}},{{
Many examples of land managers implementing climate adaptation in forest management exist, suggesting significant willingness to address the impacts of a changing climate across diverse land ownerships in managed forests{{< tbib '134' '7242780c-93ee-4a39-9505-d0bd2f67c62b' >}} and urban forests.{{< tbib '133' '6352c444-c49b-4dac-b375-2b72b8532ebe' >}} Forest management strategies to adapt to a changing climate highlight the importance of increasing forest diversity and managing for tree species adapted to a range of climate conditions.{{< tbib '8' '28ab77d2-73c7-4554-82ef-c8bd5e095887' >}} The importance of Traditional Ecological Knowledge for informing approaches for climate adaptation on tribal lands and within ceded territory is recognized.{{< tbib '331' '44b1444b-29ab-4edd-b285-f8820660fc32' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-2.yaml identifier: key-message-21-2 ordinal: 2 process: "The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
Midwest forests provide numerous economic and ecological benefits, yet threats from a changing climate are interacting with existing stressors such as invasive species and pests to increase tree mortality and reduce forest productivity (likely, high confidence). Without adaptive actions, these interactions will result in the loss of economically and culturally important tree species such as paper birch and black ash (very likely, very high confidence) and are expected to lead to the conversion of some forests to other forest types (likely, high confidence) or even to non-forested ecosystems by the end of the century (as likely as not, medium confidence). Land managers are beginning to manage risk in forests by increasing diversity and selecting for tree species adapted to a range of projected conditions.
' uncertainties: 'There is significant uncertainty surrounding the ability of tree species migration rates to keep pace with changes in climate (based on temperature and precipitation) due to existing forest fragmentation and loss of habitat. Uncertainty in forest management responses, including active and widespread adaptation efforts that alter forest composition, add to the uncertainty of tree species movements. This leads to considerable uncertainty in the extent to which shifts in tree species ranges may lead to altered forest composition or loss of forest ecosystems in the future.
Due to the complex interactions among species, there is uncertainty in the extent that longer growing seasons, warming temperatures, and increased CO2 concentrations will benefit tree species, due to both limitations in available water and nutrients, as well as limited benefits for trees relative to the positive influences of these changes on stressors (invasives, insect pests, pathogens).
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-2 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: midwest confidence: 'In the Midwest, we already have seen very high levels of habitat loss and conversion, especially in grasslands, wetlands, and freshwater systems. This habitat degradation, in addition to the pervasive impacts of invasive species, pollution, water extraction, and lack of connectivity, all suggest that the adaptive capacity of species and systems is compromised relative to systems that are more intact and under less stress. Over time, this pervasive habitat loss and degradation has contributed to population declines, especially for wetland, prairie, and stream species. A reliance on cold surface-water systems, which often have compromised connectivity (due to dams, road-stream crossings with structures that impede stream flow, and other barriers) suggests that freshwater species, especially less mobile species like mussels, which are already rare, are at particular risk of declines and extinction. Due to the variety of life histories and climate sensitivities of species within the region, it is very challenging to specify what mechanisms will be most important in terms of driving change. However, knowing that drivers like invasive species, habitat loss, pollution, and hydrologic modifications promote species declines, it is very likely that the effects of climate change will interact, and we have very high confidence that these interactions will tend to increase, rather than decrease, stresses on species that are associated with these threats. While there is strong evidence that investments in restoring habitat can benefit species, we currently do not have strong observational evidence of the use of these new habitats, or benefits of restored wetlands, in response to isolated climate drivers. Thus, the confidence level for this statement is lower than for the first half of the message.
' evidence: "Changes in climate will very likely stress many species and ecological systems in the Midwest. As a result of increases in climate stressors, which typically interact with multiple other stressors, especially in the southern half of the Midwest region, both the ecological systems and the ecological services (water purification, pollination of crops and wild species, recreational opportunities, etc.) they provide to people are at risk. We draw from a wide range of national and global scale assessments of risks to biodiversity (e.g., Maclean and Wilson 2011, Pearson et al. 2014, and the review by Staudinger et al. 2013 that covered literature included in the Third National Climate Assessment{{< tbib '20' 'a0f111d8-ec32-486c-83a9-c9f359854550' >}},{{< tbib '18' 'b0d94572-aa34-47e0-bddf-0a8e7e0c60bb' >}},{{< tbib '22' '506759aa-765f-4007-a678-17d69d139e39' >}}), which all agree that on the whole, we are highly likely to see increases in species declines and extinctions as a result of climate change. It is very challenging to say specifically what combination of factors will drive these responses, but the weight of evidence suggests very high confidence in the overall trends. The link to interactions with other stressors is also very strong and is described in Brook et al. (2008){{< tbib '157' '5cee6e59-0713-4a56-abae-6f60119df8e5' >}} and Cahill et al. (2013),{{< tbib '17' '4da26e14-8c1a-4f66-8212-a98880263e91' >}} among others. Terrestrial ecosystem connectivity, thought to be important for the adaptive capacity of many species, is very low in the southern half of the Midwest region.{{< tbib '158' '3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0' >}},{{
The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
The ecosystems of the Midwest support a diverse array of native species and provide people with essential services such as water purification, flood control, resource provision, crop pollination, and recreational opportunities. Species and ecosystems, including the important freshwater resources of the Great Lakes, are typically most at risk when climate stressors, like temperature increases, interact with land-use change, habitat loss, pollution, nutrient inputs, and nonnative invasive species (very likely, very high confidence). Restoration of natural systems, increases in the use of green infrastructure, and targeted conservation efforts, especially of wetland systems, can help protect people and nature from climate change impacts (likely, high confidence).
' uncertainties: "There is significant uncertainty surrounding the ability of species and ecosystems to persist and thrive under climate change, and we expect to see many different types of responses (population increases, declines, local and regional extinctions).{{< tbib '17' '4da26e14-8c1a-4f66-8212-a98880263e91' >}} In some cases, climate change does have the potential to benefit species; for example, fish in the coldest regions of the Great Lakes (i.e., Lake Superior) are likely to show increases in productivity, at least in the short run.{{< tbib '332' '8a6a8c87-01dc-4370-a982-afe4207f1962' >}} However, as a whole, given the environmental context upon which climate change is operating, and the presence of many cold-adapted species that are close to the southern edge of their distributional range, we expect more declines than increases.
The last section of the Key Message focuses on land protection and restoration—conservation strategies intended to reduce the impacts of land-use change. Many modeling studies have called out loss of habitat in the Midwest as a key barrier to both local survival and species movement in response to climate change (Schloss et al. 2012 and Carroll et al. 2015 are two of the most recent{{< tbib '158' '3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0' >}},{{< tbib '158' '3c96d70c-9523-49e8-b7aa-0a86be8992a0' >}}). Restoring habitat can restore connectivity and protect key ecological functions like pollination services and water purification. Restoring wetlands also can help protect ecosystems and people from flooding, which is the rationale for the last line in the Key Message.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-3 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: midwest confidence: 'Based on the evidence, there is very high confidence that climate change is very likely to impact midwesterners’ health.
' evidence: "There is strong evidence that increasing temperatures and precipitation in the Midwest will occur by the middle and end of the 21st century.{{< tbib '27' 'dd5b893d-4462-4bb3-9205-67b532919566' >}} The impacts of these changes on human health are broadly captured in the 2016 U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Climate and Health Assessment.{{< tbib '26' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}} Air quality, including particulate matter and ground-level ozone, is positively associated with increased temperatures and has been well-documented to show deleterious impacts on morbidity and mortality.{{< tbib '231' '5ec155e5-8b77-438f-afa9-fbcac4d27690' >}} Likewise, increased temperatures have been shown in communities in the Midwest, as well as across the United States, to have substantial impacts on health and well-being.{{< tbib '232' 'dac369a3-921e-426f-b4a2-5798dfb9c515' >}},{{
Access to basic preventive care measures quantifiably reduces disease burden for climate-sensitive exposures.{{< tbib '238' '327a1728-7992-448b-9e5b-267328259994' >}},{{
The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
Climate change is expected to worsen existing conditions and introduce new health threats by increasing the frequency and intensity of poor air quality days, extreme high temperature events, and heavy rainfalls; extending pollen seasons; and modifying the distribution of disease-carrying pests and insects (very likely, very high confidence). By mid-century, the region is projected to experience substantial, yet avoidable, loss of life, worsened health conditions, and economic impacts estimated in the billions of dollars as a result of these changes (likely, high confidence). Improved basic health services and increased public health measures—including surveillance and monitoring—can prevent or reduce these impacts (likely, high confidence).
' uncertainties: 'While the modeling performed by the EPA was completed using the best available information, there is uncertainty around the extent to which biophysical adaptations will protect midwestern populations from heat-, air pollution-, aeroallergen-, and vector-related illness and death. Likewise, while there is a general consensus regarding habitat suitability for disease-carrying vectors in the eastern and western United States, the degree to which the disease burden may increase or decrease is largely uncertain.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-4 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: midwest confidence: 'There is medium confidence that climate change is contributing to increased flood risk in the Midwest; there is medium confidence that green infrastructure is reducing flood risk. There is much uncertainty associated with specific numerical projections. This leads to medium confidence that costs will exceed $500 million. However, the EPA projections are sufficient to provide high confidence that increasing the capacity of existing storm water systems in order to maintain current levels of service would require significant expenditures on the part of urban sewer districts.
' evidence: "The patterns of increased annual precipitation, and the size and frequency of heavy precipitation events in the Midwest, are shown in numerous studies and highlighted in Melillo et al. (2014){{< tbib '27' 'dd5b893d-4462-4bb3-9205-67b532919566' >}} and Easterling et al. (2017).{{< tbib '193' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}} Increases in annual precipitation of 5% to 15% are reported across the Midwest region.{{< tbib '193' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}} In addition, both the frequency and the intensity of heavy precipitation events in the Midwest have increased since 1901.{{< tbib '193' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}}
For the early 21st century (2016–2045), both lower and higher scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicate that average annual precipitation could increase by 1% to 5% across the Midwest, suggesting that the observed increases are likely to continue. By mid-century (2036–2065), both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) indicate precipitation increases of 1% to 5% in Missouri and Iowa and 5% to 10% increases in states to the north and east. By late century (2070–2089), precipitation is expected to increase by 5% to 15% over present day, with slightly larger increases in the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Model simulations suggest that most of these increases will occur in winter and spring over the 21st century. Similar to annual precipitation, the amounts from the annual maximum one-day precipitation events (a measure of heavy precipitation events) are projected to increase over time in the Midwest. The size of the events could increase by 5% to 15% by late century.{{< tbib '193' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}}
Gray literature documents that heavy rains in the Midwest are overwhelming storm water management systems, leading to property damage. Kenward et al. (2016){{< tbib '256' 'e9ccb2ed-ba08-43aa-8895-a21908f6d691' >}} provide examples of rain-related sewage overflows in the Midwest. These include an overflow of 681 million gallons during heavy rains in April 2015 in Milwaukee and an overflow of over 100 million gallons from December 26–28, 2015, in St. Louis. Winters et al. (2015){{< tbib '37' '0fe1cea1-aae3-4a35-b78f-61dcb5d6df49' >}} document that failure of storm water management systems in heavy rain leads to property damage, including basement backups.
The disruption of transportation networks by heavy precipitation in the Midwest has been documented by collecting contemporary news reports and by compiling state government reports. Posey (2016){{< tbib '338' 'd9754ccb-d173-4624-8e6a-1efb9a37b556' >}} relates that four storms between April 2013 and April 2014 forced evacuations or damaged cars in St. Louis, Missouri. In the same period, there were 18 flood-related closures on Missouri roads, a figure that excludes closures on small local roads. Flooding in May 2017 led to the closure of more than 400 roads across Missouri, a figure that again excludes local roads. Closed roadways included multiple stretches of Interstate 44, as well as sections of I-55, affecting interstate traffic between St. Louis and Memphis.{{< tbib '339' 'bb613b8d-1aae-425c-b4b5-5274d1460d42' >}} News reports document that the same stretch of I-44 was shut down during the floods of December 2015–January 2016.{{< tbib '340' '7529ed72-74b6-4f77-bf19-8aeeb1ab5ae0' >}}
Flood-related disruptions to Midwest barge and rail traffic in 2013 were documented by several articles in Journal of Commerce, a shipping trade magazine.{{< tbib '265' 'cad15039-4add-470a-bac2-adeb08e201c4' >}},{{
Although there is ample documentation of transportation systems in the Midwest being disrupted by floods in recent years, there is a lack of long-term time series data on disruptions with which to determine whether these incidents are becoming more frequent. Development of long-term data on transportation disruptions in the Midwest is a research need. It is clear that flood frequency and severity on major rivers in the Midwest have increased in recent decades, although additional research is needed on the relative contributions of climate change and land-use change to increases in flood risk.{{< tbib '344' 'aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7' >}},{{
The EPA estimated economic costs related to infrastructure and transportation in the Midwest, including costs associated with bridge scour and pavement degradation.{{< tbib '28' '0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94' >}} The use of green infrastructure to reduce impacts associated with heavy precipitation is also documented in gray literature, including municipal planning documents. Using planted areas to absorb rainfall and reduce runoff has become a common approach to storm water management.{{< tbib '223' 'b71cbf27-2a1d-477e-9d0a-4d49b427ed47' >}},{{
The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
Storm water management systems, transportation networks, and other critical infrastructure are already experiencing impacts from changing precipitation patterns and elevated flood risks (medium confidence). Green infrastructure is reducing some of the negative impacts by using plants and open space to absorb storm water (medium confidence). The annual cost of adapting urban storm water systems to more frequent and severe storms is projected to exceed $500 million for the Midwest by the end of the century (medium confidence).
' uncertainties: "Although there is very high confidence that flood risk is increasing in the Midwest, there remains uncertainty about the relative contributions of climate change and land-use change. There is, however, sufficient evidence that changing precipitation patterns are leading to changes in hydrology in the Midwest,{{< tbib '351' 'c9d0a7e9-2bba-48cb-bd53-9e8c4209976d' >}},{{
While it is clear that flood frequency and severity on major rivers in the Midwest have increased in recent decades, it must be emphasized that the change in precipitation levels is not the only factor contributing to the increase in flood risk. Land-use change, particularly the destruction of floodplains by levee systems, has also been documented as a key contributor to increasing flood risk in the Midwest.{{< tbib '344' 'aa980625-eab7-45f5-9bcb-d8dbbd36e6c7' >}},{{
There is high confidence that communities in the Midwest will as likely as not be increasingly vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding, urban heat islands, and drought. Similarly, there is medium confidence that tribal nations in the Midwest are likely to be especially vulnerable because of their reliance on threatened natural resources for their cultural, subsistence, and economic needs. Due to limited documentation in the literature, there is medium confidence that integrating adaptation into planning processes will offer an opportunity to manage climate risk better. Finally, there is high confidence that developing knowledge for decision-making in cooperation with vulnerable communities and tribal nations will help to decrease sensitivity and build adaptive capacity.
' evidence: "Limited evidence in the scientific literature indicates that at-risk communities in the Midwest will be increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including increased flooding resulting from increased variation in precipitation patterns and changing lake levels,{{< tbib '285' 'c9ef5059-729c-4701-ad9a-da15255bd5ca' >}} urban heat islands,{{< tbib '287' '34db2d46-ef90-43a4-99ab-40dae17afcce' >}} and an intensification of heat and drought (see also the impacts and associated references in the previous sections).{{< tbib '286' 'b228ac0d-7bf9-4391-99e7-5c598b9ce55e' >}}
Several recent survey reports{{< tbib '28' '0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94' >}},{{
Gray literature,{{< tbib '293' '3c3cc09b-c2d7-4c52-bf8f-c064efa78e93' >}} survey reports,{{< tbib '32' 'b74c5cc9-2e40-4ad9-92aa-f2b02c7a4be7' >}} and scientific literature{{< tbib '292' '660ac034-1441-4d28-98e2-61c8c252348a' >}} point to a few initiatives to integrate adaptation into municipal planning processes and utilize participatory methodologies to evaluate and manage climate risk.
A growing body of research indicates that interaction between producers of climate information, intermediaries, and end users plays a critical role in increasing climate knowledge integration and use for adaptation in the Midwest.{{< tbib '224' '7b490de7-7bcd-4e31-b512-9deaa3a5eba7' >}},{{
The chapter lead authors were identified in October 2016, and the author team was recruited in October and November 2016. Authors were selected for their interest and expertise in areas critical to the Midwest with an eye on diversity in expertise, level of experience, and gender. The writing team engaged in conference calls starting in December 2016, and calls continued on a regular basis to discuss technical and logistical issues related to the chapter. The Midwest chapter hosted an engagement workshop on March 1, 2017, with the hub in Chicago and satellite meetings in Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The authors also considered other outreach with stakeholders, inputs provided in the public call for technical material, and incorporated the available recent scientific literature to write the chapter. Additional technical authors were added as needed to fill in the gaps in knowledge.
Discussion amongst the team members, along with reference to the Third National Climate Assessment and conversations with stakeholders, led to the development of six Key Messages based on key economic activities, ecology, human health, and the vulnerability of communities. In addition, care was taken to consider the concerns of tribal nations in the northern states of the Midwest. The Great Lakes were singled out as a special case study based on the feedback of the engagement workshop and the interests of other regional and sector chapters.
Interaction between the lakes and the atmosphere in the Great Lakes region (e.g., through ice cover, evaporation rates, moisture transport, and modified pressure gradients) is crucial to simulating the region’s future climate (i.e., changes in lake levels or regional precipitation patterns).{{< tbib '315' 'fe83e7d3-3f29-4aef-81ae-28abd70dda2e' >}},{{
At-risk communities in the Midwest are becoming more vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding, drought, and increases in urban heat islands (as likely as not, high confidence). Tribal nations are especially vulnerable because of their reliance on threatened natural resources for their cultural, subsistence, and economic needs (likely, medium confidence). Integrating climate adaptation into planning processes offers an opportunity to better manage climate risks now (medium confidence). Developing knowledge for decision-making in cooperation with vulnerable communities and tribal nations will help to build adaptive capacity and increase resilience (high confidence).
' uncertainties: 'Limited research specific to the Midwest region contributes to uncertainty around the specific vulnerabilities of at-risk communities, including urban and rural communities and tribal nations. Though climate change planning and action in both Midwest cities and rural areas are underway, documentation remains low, few examples exist in the public literature of the failure or success of efforts to mainstream climate action into municipal governance, and attempts to assess vulnerabilities, especially in poor urban communities, frequently encounter climate justice barriers. Likewise, the number, scope, and nature of tribal adaptation plans remain undocumented, as does the degree of implementation of these plans and the manner in which Traditional Ecological Knowledge is incorporated.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/midwest/finding/key-message-21-6 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northern-great-plains confidence: 'There is high confidence that temperatures will rise in the region, which will likely produce less snowfall and smaller mountain snowpacks. There is very high confidence in the downstream consequences of these changes.
' evidence: "Multiple lines of research have shown that as a result of its high aridity, changes in water availability in the Northern Great Plains region are highly sensitive to small changes in climate.{{< tbib '35' '8c567c0c-cc42-4372-94ea-7abf677704c6' >}},{{
Natural reservoirs, groundwater, and snowpack are at risk to varying degrees. Reservoir vulnerability was recently analyzed to assess sustainable pumping rates,{{< tbib '42' 'bbb70780-07ef-4083-a3ff-8dc8d33b1e62' >}} while snow and especially glaciers appear to be in steady decline in recent decades,{{< tbib '38' 'bb0be3c7-6d67-4281-9ff4-db244460b65a' >}} attributed to global climate warming{{< tbib '39' '760d96a6-ba98-4e20-8897-2989d8f0ae6f' >}} that is projected to continue.{{< tbib '145' '29dec54f-92a8-4543-93f1-941da4f4d750' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-1.yaml identifier: key-message-22-1 ordinal: 1 process: 'The chapter lead (CL) and coordinating lead author (CLA) developed a list of potential contributing authors by soliciting suggestions from the past National Climate Assessment (NCA) author team, colleagues and collaborators throughout the region, and contributors to other regional reports. Our initial list of potential authors also included CL nominees submitted to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CL and CLA discussed the Northern Great Plains, which was part of the larger Great Plains region for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), with each of these nominees and, as part of that discussion, solicited suggestions for other nominees. This long list of potential contributing authors was pared down by omitting individuals who could not contribute in a timely fashion, and the list was finalized after reconciliation against key themes within the region identified by past NCA authors, the CL and CLA, and contributing author nominees. The team of contributing authors was selected to represent the region geographically and thematically, but participants from some states who had agreed to contribute were eventually unable to do so. Others were unable to contribute from the start. The author team is mostly composed of authors who did not contribute to NCA3.
The CL and CLA, in consultation with past NCA authors and contributing author nominees, identified an initial list of focal areas of regional importance. The author team then solicited input from colleagues and regional experts (identified based on their deep ties to scientific and practitioner communities across the region) on their thoughts on focal areas. This list informed the agenda of a region-wide meeting held on February 22, 2017, with core locations in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Rapid City, South Dakota. The main purpose of this meeting was to seek feedback on the proposed list of focal areas. With this feedback, the author team was able to refine our focal areas to the five themes comprising the Key Messages of the Northern Great Plains regional chapter. Of these, recreation/tourism is a focus area that is new from NCA3.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Water is the lifeblood of the Northern Great Plains, and effective water management is critical to the region’s people, crops and livestock, ecosystems, and energy industry. Even small changes in annual precipitation can have large effects downstream (very high confidence); when coupled with the variability from extreme events, these changes make managing these resources a challenge (very high confidence). Future changes in precipitation patterns, warmer temperatures, and the potential for more extreme rainfall events are very likely to exacerbate these challenges (very likely, high confidence).
' uncertainties: "While there is high confidence in future increases in temperature, uncertainties exist as to the changes in precipitation and runoff. Perhaps most important are the uncertainties in the degree of precipitation variability from year to year and within season (based on information dating to the 1950s).{{< tbib '35' '8c567c0c-cc42-4372-94ea-7abf677704c6' >}},{{
Uncertainties exist in agricultural demands for water, reservoir operation protocols, and changes in extreme events.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-1 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northern-great-plains confidence: "There is very high confidence that longer growing seasons have already benefited agriculture in parts of the Northern Great Plains. There is very high confidence that increases in temperatures and atmospheric CO2 will likely increase production potential for the agricultural sector in the short term (the next 10–20 years) and that current adaptations already being implemented by a subset of producers in this region provide opportunities for assessment, further development, and adoption by the larger population of agricultural managers. There is very high confidence that rising temperatures and changes in extreme weather events are very likely to have negative impacts on parts of the region. Over the longer-term (through the end of the 21st century), predicted climate changes may require transformative changes in agricultural management, including regional shifts of agricultural practices and enterprises (very likely, high confidence).{{< tbib '61' '18bc8646-9568-4169-a526-daed1216a4f0' >}},{{
Several lines of research have shown that agricultural productivity is likely to increase in rangelands across the region with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and warming,{{< tbib '3' '26b61192-351a-494d-84f8-411c3e4ccd48' >}},{{
Numerous lines of research have addressed adaptation strategies for various parts of the agricultural sector{{< tbib '9' 'b1cbd298-7ce4-4106-a802-f8de95517c97' >}},{{
The chapter lead (CL) and coordinating lead author (CLA) developed a list of potential contributing authors by soliciting suggestions from the past National Climate Assessment (NCA) author team, colleagues and collaborators throughout the region, and contributors to other regional reports. Our initial list of potential authors also included CL nominees submitted to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CL and CLA discussed the Northern Great Plains, which was part of the larger Great Plains region for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), with each of these nominees and, as part of that discussion, solicited suggestions for other nominees. This long list of potential contributing authors was pared down by omitting individuals who could not contribute in a timely fashion, and the list was finalized after reconciliation against key themes within the region identified by past NCA authors, the CL and CLA, and contributing author nominees. The team of contributing authors was selected to represent the region geographically and thematically, but participants from some states who had agreed to contribute were eventually unable to do so. Others were unable to contribute from the start. The author team is mostly composed of authors who did not contribute to NCA3.
The CL and CLA, in consultation with past NCA authors and contributing author nominees, identified an initial list of focal areas of regional importance. The author team then solicited input from colleagues and regional experts (identified based on their deep ties to scientific and practitioner communities across the region) on their thoughts on focal areas. This list informed the agenda of a region-wide meeting held on February 22, 2017, with core locations in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Rapid City, South Dakota. The main purpose of this meeting was to seek feedback on the proposed list of focal areas. With this feedback, the author team was able to refine our focal areas to the five themes comprising the Key Messages of the Northern Great Plains regional chapter. Of these, recreation/tourism is a focus area that is new from NCA3.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Agriculture is an integral component of the economy, the history, and the culture of the Northern Great Plains. Recently, agriculture has benefited from longer growing seasons and other recent climatic changes (very high confidence). Some additional production and conservation benefits are expected in the next two to three decades as land managers employ innovative adaptation strategies (very likely, high confidence), but rising temperatures and changes in extreme weather events are very likely to have negative impacts on parts of the region (very likely, very high confidence). Adaptation to extremes and to longer-term, persistent climate changes will likely require transformative changes in agricultural management, including regional shifts of agricultural practices and enterprises (very likely, high confidence).
' uncertainties: "While there is high confidence in future increases in temperature, uncertainties exist as to the changes in extreme events, including the spatiotemporal aspects of high-intensity rainfall events, snowstorms, and hailstorms. Perhaps most important are the uncertainties in the degree of precipitation variability from year to year{{< tbib '35' '8c567c0c-cc42-4372-94ea-7abf677704c6' >}} that influence decision-making calendars for agricultural producers.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-2 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northern-great-plains confidence: 'We know with very high confidence that ecosystems across the Northern Great Plains provide recreational opportunities and other valuable goods and services. We know with very high confidence that climate change is very likely affecting abiotic factors that influence these ecosystems, such as snowfall, spring snowmelt, runoff, and stream temperatures. There is high confidence that these abiotic factors are likely to affect high-elevation ecosystems and riparian areas in the Northern Great Plains. Greater confidence could be gained by conducting studies specifically within the Northern Great Plains, as opposed to drawing inferences from studies conducted in other regions of the world with similar characteristics. The consequences of ecosystem changes for local economies in the region that depend on winter-based or river-based recreational activities are currently being debated in the scientific literature, due to uncertainty about potential individual behavioral responses to changes in the recreational environment. Based on a limited number of case studies, effects of climate change on outdoor recreation-based economies are as likely as not to be negative, but this is only known with medium confidence. We know with very high confidence, however, that some natural ecosystems that local economies depend upon—in this specific case, wetlands in the Northern Great Plains—are likely to be negatively affected by climate-induced changes in agricultural land use. In turn, we know with high confidence that wetland declines will very likely harm the diverse species and recreational amenities they support. Uncertainty about future policies that could influence agricultural land-use decisions and wetland conservation outcomes precludes a higher confidence level or higher likelihood.
' evidence: "State-level surveys, conducted roughly every five years, have consistently documented that the public spends millions of days each year (over $30 million in 2011) participating in nature-based recreation activities in the Northern Great Plains (e.g., U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Department of Commerce 2008, 2013a, 2013b, 2014a, 2014b{{< tbib '65' 'ff8fa307-6c14-4764-83f9-9529b7bd688c' >}},{{
The chapter lead (CL) and coordinating lead author (CLA) developed a list of potential contributing authors by soliciting suggestions from the past National Climate Assessment (NCA) author team, colleagues and collaborators throughout the region, and contributors to other regional reports. Our initial list of potential authors also included CL nominees submitted to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CL and CLA discussed the Northern Great Plains, which was part of the larger Great Plains region for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), with each of these nominees and, as part of that discussion, solicited suggestions for other nominees. This long list of potential contributing authors was pared down by omitting individuals who could not contribute in a timely fashion, and the list was finalized after reconciliation against key themes within the region identified by past NCA authors, the CL and CLA, and contributing author nominees. The team of contributing authors was selected to represent the region geographically and thematically, but participants from some states who had agreed to contribute were eventually unable to do so. Others were unable to contribute from the start. The author team is mostly composed of authors who did not contribute to NCA3.
The CL and CLA, in consultation with past NCA authors and contributing author nominees, identified an initial list of focal areas of regional importance. The author team then solicited input from colleagues and regional experts (identified based on their deep ties to scientific and practitioner communities across the region) on their thoughts on focal areas. This list informed the agenda of a region-wide meeting held on February 22, 2017, with core locations in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Rapid City, South Dakota. The main purpose of this meeting was to seek feedback on the proposed list of focal areas. With this feedback, the author team was able to refine our focal areas to the five themes comprising the Key Messages of the Northern Great Plains regional chapter. Of these, recreation/tourism is a focus area that is new from NCA3.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Ecosystems across the Northern Great Plains provide recreational opportunities and other valuable goods and services that are at risk in a changing climate (very high confidence). Rising temperatures have already resulted in shorter snow seasons, lower summer streamflows, and higher stream temperatures and have negatively affected high-elevation ecosystems and riparian areas, with important consequences for local economies that depend on winter or river-based recreational activities (high confidence). Climate-induced land-use changes in agriculture can have cascading effects on closely entwined natural ecosystems, such as wetlands, and the diverse species and recreational amenities they support (very high confidence, likely). Federal, tribal, state, and private organizations are undertaking preparedness and adaptation activities, such as scenario planning, transboundary collaboration, and development of market-based tools.
' uncertainties: 'Climate change is expected to disrupt local economies that depend on winter-based or river-based recreational activities. However, the magnitudes of these effects are uncertain. This is due largely to uncertainties about the preferences of recreationalists and the extent to which they will adapt by shifting the timing and location of their activities or by substituting towards a different set of recreational activities. For example, although climate change will make it more difficult to supply high-quality downhill skiing opportunities, this effect will be stronger in lower-elevation areas. Therefore, some skiers might adapt by simply traveling to higher-elevation downhill ski areas. Others might compensate for the shorter ski season at their favorite lower-elevation mountain by shifting some of their recreational time to an alternative outdoor activity, such as winter mountain biking. Given the potential diversity of individual preferences for adapting outdoor recreation activities to climate change, it is challenging to project with certainty the future potential impacts to recreation-dependent economies, but the impact will be larger and more immediate for some industries and companies (e.g., low-altitude ski resorts).
Another source of uncertainty is the reliance, in some cases, on scientific studies from other geographic locations to infer what the impacts of climate change might be for ecosystems, species, or recreationalists within the Northern Great Plains. For example, the effects of increased stream temperature on the susceptibility of coldwater fish species to diseases in the region are based largely on studies conducted in European coldwater fisheries.
Regarding wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region, uncertainty about their abundance in the future arises from uncertainty about future government policies that would either exacerbate or mitigate climate-induced losses. For example, future versions of the Farm Bill may contain language that directly encourages wetland preservation (e.g., through conservation-compliance requirements) or unintentionally leads to wetland degradation (e.g., through higher subsidies for row crop insurance).
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-3 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northern-great-plains confidence: 'There is high confidence that climate change and extreme weather events will likely put energy supply and infrastructure of various types at risk. There is high confidence that the energy sector is a very likely a significant source of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change. There is very high confidence that volatile organic compounds contribute to climate change and ground-level ozone pollution, and it is likely that this will worsen in the future in some areas.
' evidence: "Fossil fuel and renewable energy production/distribution infrastructure is expanding within the Northern Great Plains, including oil and natural gas pipelines, natural gas compressor stations and storage tanks, natural gas processing plants, natural gas-fired power plants, high-voltage power lines and substations, wind farms, and even a new oil refinery and a new biorefinery in recent years (both began operations in 2015).
A number of oil and natural gas pipelines are being constructed or have been completed in recent years. In particular, the Dakota Access Pipeline began commercial service June 1, 2017, transporting crude oil from the Bakken/Three Forks production areas in North Dakota, through South Dakota and Iowa, to Pakota, Illinois. While pipelines are vulnerable to damage or disruption from heavy precipitation events and associated flooding and erosion,{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}} their increased use could eliminate hundreds of rail cars and trucks needed to transport crude every day. This reduces the exposure of these modes of transportation to rising temperatures, heat waves, and floods.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}} Other oil and gas production and distribution infrastructure is similarly vulnerable to heavy precipitation events and flooding.
The region relies on rail lines to transport coal, and these lines are vulnerable to rising temperatures, heat waves, and floods.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}} There is ample evidence of rail line vulnerability to extreme weather.{{< tbib '151' '96b39da1-771b-4889-8535-6b3ba61b7042' >}}
Damage to thermoelectric power plants and electric power transmission lines from extreme weather such as heat waves and wildfires has been documented, and the risk is expected to increase.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}},{{
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Risk Profiles (1996–2014) highlight the risks to energy infrastructure in the United States from natural hazards. For example, in North Dakota, thunderstorms and lightning had the highest frequency of occurrence and property loss during this timeframe. DOE also has a series of comprehensive documents on U.S. energy sector vulnerabilities to climate change{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}},{{
There is substantial evidence that the energy sector is a significant source of greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change, in particular from power plants, oil and gas systems, and refineries.{{< tbib '117' '81430bfc-5d67-4109-982a-4cfd344f057c' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-4.yaml identifier: key-message-22-4 ordinal: 4 process: 'The chapter lead (CL) and coordinating lead author (CLA) developed a list of potential contributing authors by soliciting suggestions from the past National Climate Assessment (NCA) author team, colleagues and collaborators throughout the region, and contributors to other regional reports. Our initial list of potential authors also included CL nominees submitted to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CL and CLA discussed the Northern Great Plains, which was part of the larger Great Plains region for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), with each of these nominees and, as part of that discussion, solicited suggestions for other nominees. This long list of potential contributing authors was pared down by omitting individuals who could not contribute in a timely fashion, and the list was finalized after reconciliation against key themes within the region identified by past NCA authors, the CL and CLA, and contributing author nominees. The team of contributing authors was selected to represent the region geographically and thematically, but participants from some states who had agreed to contribute were eventually unable to do so. Others were unable to contribute from the start. The author team is mostly composed of authors who did not contribute to NCA3.
The CL and CLA, in consultation with past NCA authors and contributing author nominees, identified an initial list of focal areas of regional importance. The author team then solicited input from colleagues and regional experts (identified based on their deep ties to scientific and practitioner communities across the region) on their thoughts on focal areas. This list informed the agenda of a region-wide meeting held on February 22, 2017, with core locations in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Rapid City, South Dakota. The main purpose of this meeting was to seek feedback on the proposed list of focal areas. With this feedback, the author team was able to refine our focal areas to the five themes comprising the Key Messages of the Northern Great Plains regional chapter. Of these, recreation/tourism is a focus area that is new from NCA3.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Fossil fuel and renewable energy production and distribution infrastructure is expanding within the Northern Great Plains (very high confidence). Climate change and extreme weather events put this infrastructure at risk, as well as the supply of energy it contributes to support individuals, communities, and the U.S. economy as a whole (likely, high confidence). The energy sector is also a significant source of greenhouse gases (very likely, very high confidence) and volatile organic compounds that contribute to climate change and ground-level ozone pollution (likely in some areas, very high confidence).
' uncertainties: "Cold waves are projected to be less intense in the future, reducing the risk of disruptions from cold to energy infrastructure.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}}
There is not yet substantial agreement among sources as to how a changing climate will ultimately affect wind resources in the United States in general and in the Northern Great Plains in particular.{{< tbib '153' 'b66b1462-75b3-4a9b-ae8d-de2e190cf84b' >}}
Projected increases in precipitation in the Northern Great Plains are likely to benefit hydropower production, but this will vary by location. For example, it is known that in the Columbia River Basin, decreasing summer streamflows will reduce downstream hydropower production, and increasing winter and early spring streamflows will increase production.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}} In the Missouri River Basin, projected seasonal declines in precipitation in the southern and western portion of the region are likely to reduce the water available to generate hydropower.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}}
Biofuel feedstocks from crops and forage grown in the Northern Great Plains are vulnerable to climate change, but the net impacts on biofuel production are uncertain.{{< tbib '13' '07b7c06f-35f8-4205-a585-b45e3de00f22' >}}
It is well understood that ground-level ozone (O3) is created by chemical reactions between volatile organic compounds in the presence of sunlight and would be exacerbated by climate change. What is less understood is the sensitivity of regional climate-induced O3 changes, and the science of modeling climate and atmospheric chemistry to understand future conditions.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-4 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northern-great-plains confidence: 'There is very high confidence that rising temperature and increases in flooding, runoff events, and drought are likely to lead to increases in impacts to reservations and other Indigenous communities. There is very high confidence that climate changes are already resulting in harmful impacts on tribal economies, livelihoods, and culture. However, the actual impacts and response capacities will depend on the response of regulatory systems and funding amounts.
' evidence: "Multiple lines of research have shown that hydrological changes and changes in extremes have resulted in deleterious impacts to Indigenous peoples.{{< tbib '14' '5f9a3ea9-c2f0-44dc-916a-d3aab217c58d' >}},{{
The chapter lead (CL) and coordinating lead author (CLA) developed a list of potential contributing authors by soliciting suggestions from the past National Climate Assessment (NCA) author team, colleagues and collaborators throughout the region, and contributors to other regional reports. Our initial list of potential authors also included CL nominees submitted to the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The CL and CLA discussed the Northern Great Plains, which was part of the larger Great Plains region for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), with each of these nominees and, as part of that discussion, solicited suggestions for other nominees. This long list of potential contributing authors was pared down by omitting individuals who could not contribute in a timely fashion, and the list was finalized after reconciliation against key themes within the region identified by past NCA authors, the CL and CLA, and contributing author nominees. The team of contributing authors was selected to represent the region geographically and thematically, but participants from some states who had agreed to contribute were eventually unable to do so. Others were unable to contribute from the start. The author team is mostly composed of authors who did not contribute to NCA3.
The CL and CLA, in consultation with past NCA authors and contributing author nominees, identified an initial list of focal areas of regional importance. The author team then solicited input from colleagues and regional experts (identified based on their deep ties to scientific and practitioner communities across the region) on their thoughts on focal areas. This list informed the agenda of a region-wide meeting held on February 22, 2017, with core locations in Fort Collins, Colorado, and Rapid City, South Dakota. The main purpose of this meeting was to seek feedback on the proposed list of focal areas. With this feedback, the author team was able to refine our focal areas to the five themes comprising the Key Messages of the Northern Great Plains regional chapter. Of these, recreation/tourism is a focus area that is new from NCA3.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Indigenous peoples of the Northern Great Plains are at high risk from a variety of climate change impacts, especially those resulting from hydrological changes, including changes in snowpack, seasonality and timing of precipitation events, and extreme flooding and droughts as well as melting glaciers and reduction in streamflows (likely, very high confidence). These changes are already resulting in harmful impacts to tribal economies, livelihoods, and sacred waters and plants used for ceremonies, medicine, and subsistence (very high confidence). At the same time, many tribes have been very proactive in adaptation and strategic climate change planning (very likely, very high confidence).
' uncertainties: 'The impacts of climate change in the Northern Great Plains are expected to increase risks to Indigenous reservations, communities, and livelihoods. However, there is uncertainty about how Indigenous people will be able to respond. Much of this uncertainty is due to unsettled water rights, multijurisdictional complexities, and federal funding and policies.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northern-great-plains/finding/key-message-22-5 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: southern-great-plains confidence: "The Southern Great Plains will continue to grow rapidly and with high probability of significant competition. Water is the major concern, and political inability to develop a system to allocate water in an equitable manner will continue to build this competitive and contentious issue among all users—energy, food, and water. Quality of life in the region will be compromised as population increases. At least 60% of the region’s population is clustered around urban centers currently, but these population centers are experiencing growth that far exceeds that of rural communities. The remaining population is distributed across vast areas of rural land.{{< tbib '14' 'bf19cfe7-2575-48e2-8d26-b0081117369a' >}},{{
A growing number of adaptation strategies, improved climate services, and early warning decision support systems will more effectively manage the complex regional, national, and transnational issues associated with food, energy, and water. Since a changing climate has significant negative impacts on agriculture in the United States and causes substantial economic costs,{{< tbib '38' '76db17ce-354b-4f0c-ad10-3e701c0387fc' >}} the effects of drought and other occurrences of extreme weather outside the region will also affect the food–energy–water interconnections within the region. (Likely, High confidence)
" evidence: "The connection between food, water, and energy also creates great challenges in the management and distribution of resources. People need food, energy, and water, yet all sectors pull from each other and allocation is a challenge. There are many studies focused on the competitive nature revolving around these resources and the demand by people.{{< tbib '41' '10b9c70e-cabf-44c8-87e7-7905e1fa1e67' >}},{{
The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the states’ officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) were included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are each members of the American Association of State Climatologists, which is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state level.
One representative from each of several regional hubs of national and regional climate expertise was included on the author team. These regional hubs include the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (El Reno, Oklahoma), the U.S. Department of the Interior’s South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Norman, Oklahoma), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Norman, Oklahoma).
After assessing the areas of expertise of the six authors selected from the state and regional centers, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing. Due to the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an accomplished scholar with expertise in Indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate change was selected from the premier tribal university in the United States, Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. An individual from the Environmental Science Institute at the University of Texas at Austin was selected to bring expertise on the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere–land–ocean systems, climate, and humans (population and urbanization). Expertise in the electric utility industry was gained through the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives by an individual with a long history of working with rural and urban populations and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.
The author group decided to allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive additional priorities. On March 2, 2017, the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Southern Great Plains chapter team held a Regional Engagement Workshop at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, with a satellite location in Austin, Texas, that allowed a number of stakeholders to participate virtually. The objective of the workshop was to gather input from a diverse array of stakeholders throughout the Southern Great Plains to help inform the writing and development of the report and to raise awareness of the process and timeline for NCA4. Stakeholders from meteorology, climatology, tribes, agriculture, electric utilities, water resources, Bureau of Land Management, ecosystems, landscape cooperatives, and transportation from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were represented. The productive dialog at this workshop identified important gaps in environmental economics, ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas were selected: an ecosystems expert from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, an environmental economist from the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma, and health experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute.
This diverse collection of medical doctors, academics, researchers, scientists, and practitioners from both federal and state agencies gives the Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate change will affect people in the region.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Quality of life in the region will be compromised as increasing population, the migration of individuals from rural to urban locations, and a changing climate redistribute demand at the intersection of food consumption, energy production, and water resources (likely, high confidence). A growing number of adaptation strategies, improved climate services, and early warning decision support systems will more effectively manage the complex regional, national, and transnational issues associated with food, energy, and water (likely, high confidence).
' uncertainties: "Research into the intersection of food, energy, and water is in its early stages and historically tends to examine only one or two components.{{< tbib '59' '8a4477fb-8bb9-4b37-8c31-3307f22d84c4' >}},{{
There is very high confidence that extreme heat will increase in frequency and intensity. There is medium confidence in an increased frequency of flooding and high confidence in the increased frequency of drought. There is high confidence of sea level rise of at least 4 feet by 2100 along the Texas coastline if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced. On the implications for infrastructure, there is high confidence that weather-related damage will increase due to inland weather-related hazards. Along the coastline, there is very high confidence that infrastructure will be impacted by sea level rise and storm surge.
' evidence: "The existing infrastructure and projected models for growth are well established and documented. Demographic and population projections are available from state demographers and are typically included in Long-Term Transportation Plans available from state departments of transportation. Additionally, the present-day infrastructure challenges have been examined in depth by the American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE), which publishes an Infrastructure Report Card for the Nation and for each state (www.infrastructurereportcard.org).{{< tbib '189' '497411ba-3eb8-42fd-9b01-8c5a21fc6465' >}} For the Southern Great Plains states, one of the pressing concerns is meeting the funding challenges necessary to maintain critical infrastructure, as well as anticipating future revenue streams, which themselves depend on population and its distribution, and state and federal funding. The ASCE, as well as all state transportation plans in the Southern Great Plains, does not consider future climate projections, and the information contained generally does not explicitly mention climate-related stressors. However, the impacts of climate change have become an issue of concern for agencies such as the Department of Transportation (DOT) and Federal Highways Administration (FHWA), which have in recent years funded projects evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on infrastructure and transportation and possible adaptation strategies. Since 2010, the FHWA has sponsored a series of pilot studies in resilience for municipalities and states across the Nation.{{< tbib '190' '93ad29e2-8811-4b6e-854c-fa57408cb570' >}} Two of these studies took place in Texas, in Dallas and Tarrant Counties and in the City of Austin. These reports provide some of the most comprehensive examples of integrating climate data into assessments of infrastructure vulnerability in the region to date. The potential impacts of temperature and precipitation extremes on transportation and infrastructure were based in part on known vulnerabilities as shown by these aforementioned reports and the larger repository of information and resources supplied by the FHWA.
Estimates of relative sea level rise (SLR) in Texas in the historical period are available from NCA4 Volume I: Climate Science Special Report,{{< tbib '24' '75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1' >}} Runkle et al. (2017),{{< tbib '25' '58dfbe91-53a4-4ddb-ad8d-d4e181086e72' >}} Sweet et al. (2017).{{< tbib '191' 'c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c' >}} Relative SLR along the Texas coastline is some of the highest in the Nation; coupled with its population and critical energy infrastructure, this region has some noteworthy vulnerabilities to SLR. Projections of SLR remain uncertain and depend to some extent on whether the current rates of relative SLR are maintained, in addition to the magnitude and rate of greenhouse gas emissions. Sweet et al. (2017){{< tbib '191' 'c66bf5a9-a6d7-4043-ad99-db0ae6ae562c' >}} probabilistically evaluate a number of SLR scenarios, typically noting that the Texas coast SLR is higher than the global mean. The values mentioned in the main text are global mean values obtained from USGCRP (2017){{< tbib '24' '75cf1c0b-cc62-4ca4-96a7-082afdfe2ab1' >}} and from the range quoted by Runkle et al. (2017).{{< tbib '25' '58dfbe91-53a4-4ddb-ad8d-d4e181086e72' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southern-great-plains/finding/key-message-23-2.yaml identifier: key-message-23-2 ordinal: 2 process: 'The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the states’ officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) were included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are each members of the American Association of State Climatologists, which is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state level.
One representative from each of several regional hubs of national and regional climate expertise was included on the author team. These regional hubs include the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (El Reno, Oklahoma), the U.S. Department of the Interior’s South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Norman, Oklahoma), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Norman, Oklahoma).
After assessing the areas of expertise of the six authors selected from the state and regional centers, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing. Due to the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an accomplished scholar with expertise in Indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate change was selected from the premier tribal university in the United States, Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. An individual from the Environmental Science Institute at the University of Texas at Austin was selected to bring expertise on the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere–land–ocean systems, climate, and humans (population and urbanization). Expertise in the electric utility industry was gained through the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives by an individual with a long history of working with rural and urban populations and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.
The author group decided to allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive additional priorities. On March 2, 2017, the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Southern Great Plains chapter team held a Regional Engagement Workshop at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, with a satellite location in Austin, Texas, that allowed a number of stakeholders to participate virtually. The objective of the workshop was to gather input from a diverse array of stakeholders throughout the Southern Great Plains to help inform the writing and development of the report and to raise awareness of the process and timeline for NCA4. Stakeholders from meteorology, climatology, tribes, agriculture, electric utilities, water resources, Bureau of Land Management, ecosystems, landscape cooperatives, and transportation from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were represented. The productive dialog at this workshop identified important gaps in environmental economics, ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas were selected: an ecosystems expert from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, an environmental economist from the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma, and health experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute.
This diverse collection of medical doctors, academics, researchers, scientists, and practitioners from both federal and state agencies gives the Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate change will affect people in the region.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'The built environment is vulnerable to increasing temperature, extreme precipitation, and continued sea level rise, particularly as infrastructure ages and populations shift to urban centers (likely, high confidence). Along the Texas Gulf Coast, relative sea level rise of twice the global average will put coastal infrastructure at risk (likely, medium confidence). Regional adaptation efforts that harden or relocate critical infrastructure will reduce the risk of climate change impacts.
' uncertainties: "In the Southern Great Plains there remains uncertainty over the direction of change of average precipitation, although models generally project increases in very heavy precipitation.{{< tbib '1' 'e8089a19-413e-4bc5-8c4a-7610399e268c' >}} The expectation of an increase in the frequency of events such as the 100-year storm is uncertain due to the spread of model projections of extreme precipitation and the need to use additional statistical modeling in order to obtain the return period estimates.
There are limited studies that attempt to directly link weather and climate extremes and their impacts to infrastructure. While it is appreciated that infrastructure exposed to adverse conditions will lead to deterioration, studies on specific cause–effect chain of events in these cases are limited (e.g., Winguth et al. 2015){{< tbib '192' '3fed1df6-1ec6-4f8b-a3b7-6bb715cee3ee' >}}. The results are more evident in the case of catastrophic failures associated with floods, for example, but even in those cases, antecedent conditions related to the age, condition, and/or construction quality of infrastructure will affect its resilience (Ch. 12: Transportation;).
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southern-great-plains/finding/key-message-23-2 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: southern-great-plains confidence: 'There is high confidence that rising temperatures and increases in flooding, runoff events, and aridity will likely lead to changes in the aquatic and terrestrial habitats supporting many regional species. Flooding has changed the complexity of many riparian habitats. Increases already seen in extreme drought occurrence have caused downturns in the fish- and wildlife-related industries, with losses in traditional fish (crab and oysters) and wildlife species (waterfowl) important for both recreational and commercial purposes.
In contrast, habitat created by invasive species due to climate change has improved populations of other species including fungi. The expanded stress due to a rapidly growing population in this region increases the likelihood (high confidence) of negative natural resource and ecosystems outcomes in the future.
' evidence: "This Key Message was developed through technical discussions developed within science teams and collaborators of the Gulf Coast and Great Plains Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Species’ response to climate change is complex and variable;{{< tbib '119' '506759aa-765f-4007-a678-17d69d139e39' >}} this complexity necessitates a multifaceted review of the projected impacts of climate change. In addition, ecosystem services also require assessment, given the impact of climate change on their ability to deliver materials and processes that benefit people.{{< tbib '123' 'c3b02b08-e555-4a41-8a73-8b04dc89ee6b' >}}
The following relevant areas of evidence regarding climate change impacts on ecosystems in the Southern Great Plains were therefore considered: species, aquatic ecosystems, coastal bays and estuaries, and risk management. It is unclear how climate change will affect species directly, but the effects of increased aridity will likely have negative impacts (e.g., NFWPCAP 2012{{< tbib '123' 'c3b02b08-e555-4a41-8a73-8b04dc89ee6b' >}}). Species migration (e.g., Schmandt 2011{{< tbib '126' '373310ba-0499-4640-8a23-211736f3b32d' >}}) and mortality (e.g., Moore et al 2016{{< tbib '127' 'f1380bfc-e39d-43d9-87d6-dfcff35fa7fb' >}}) will increase in response to climate change. Climate change impacts to aquatic ecosystems include higher water temperatures in lakes, wetlands, rivers, and estuaries, while impacts to reservoirs include fluctuating lake levels, loss of habitat, loss of recreational access, increase in harmful algal blooms, and disconnectedness from upstream and downstream riverine habitat.{{< tbib '129' '9bff2ebb-6418-481a-bad9-b8c29875286e' >}} Sea level rise will impact coastal bays and estuaries via more frequent and longer-lasting flooding of marshes,{{< tbib '126' '373310ba-0499-4640-8a23-211736f3b32d' >}},{{
The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the states’ officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) were included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are each members of the American Association of State Climatologists, which is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state level.
One representative from each of several regional hubs of national and regional climate expertise was included on the author team. These regional hubs include the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (El Reno, Oklahoma), the U.S. Department of the Interior’s South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Norman, Oklahoma), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Norman, Oklahoma).
After assessing the areas of expertise of the six authors selected from the state and regional centers, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing. Due to the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an accomplished scholar with expertise in Indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate change was selected from the premier tribal university in the United States, Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. An individual from the Environmental Science Institute at the University of Texas at Austin was selected to bring expertise on the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere–land–ocean systems, climate, and humans (population and urbanization). Expertise in the electric utility industry was gained through the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives by an individual with a long history of working with rural and urban populations and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.
The author group decided to allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive additional priorities. On March 2, 2017, the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Southern Great Plains chapter team held a Regional Engagement Workshop at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, with a satellite location in Austin, Texas, that allowed a number of stakeholders to participate virtually. The objective of the workshop was to gather input from a diverse array of stakeholders throughout the Southern Great Plains to help inform the writing and development of the report and to raise awareness of the process and timeline for NCA4. Stakeholders from meteorology, climatology, tribes, agriculture, electric utilities, water resources, Bureau of Land Management, ecosystems, landscape cooperatives, and transportation from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were represented. The productive dialog at this workshop identified important gaps in environmental economics, ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas were selected: an ecosystems expert from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, an environmental economist from the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma, and health experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute.
This diverse collection of medical doctors, academics, researchers, scientists, and practitioners from both federal and state agencies gives the Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate change will affect people in the region.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are being directly and indirectly altered by climate change (likely, high confidence). Some species can adapt to extreme droughts, unprecedented floods, and wildfires from a changing climate, while others cannot, resulting in significant impacts to both services and people living in these ecosystems (likely, high confidence). Landscape-scale ecological services will increase the resilience of the most vulnerable species.
' uncertainties: "Ecosystems and the species that exist in these ecosystems have experienced a rapid decline in many “common species” as well as certain rare species.{{< tbib '123' 'c3b02b08-e555-4a41-8a73-8b04dc89ee6b' >}},{{
There is very high confidence that rising temperatures and changes in precipitation leading to flooding, runoff events, and aridity will likely lead to negative impacts on human health in the Southern Great Plains. There is high confidence that certain populations, such as very young and old and socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals, will likely be disproportionately affected.
' evidence: "This Key Message was developed in close coordination with the Human Health (Ch. 14) author team and incorporated applicable inputs from the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment.{{< tbib '168' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}} Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate statistically significant associations between temperature, precipitation, and other climatologic variables with adverse health outcomes, including heat-related illness, respiratory disease, malnutrition, and vector-borne disease.{{< tbib '168' 'f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6' >}} Regionally specific examples of these well-documented impacts were identified through literature reviews conducted to identify regionally specific studies of these impacts.
There is strong evidence that increasing average temperatures as well as increasing frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme heat events will occur in the Southern Great Plains by the middle and end of this century, with higher CO2 emissions leading to greater and faster temperature increases.{{< tbib '80' '29960c69-6168-4fb0-9af0-d50bdd91acd3' >}} Extreme temperatures are shown with high confidence to have substantial effects on morbidity and mortality {{< tbib '142' 'e337db11-d5e9-4a9b-be9f-7773befd61b9' >}},{{
Climate change is expected (with medium to high confidence) to increase the frequency of extreme rainfall and hurricanes, although impacts in the Southern Great Plains remain difficult to quantify.{{< tbib '2' '52ce1b63-1b04-4728-9f1b-daee39af665e' >}} The Gulf Coast of Texas in particular has experienced several record-breaking floods and tropical cyclones in recent years, including Hurricane Harvey. Hurricanes and resultant flooding result in significant health impacts, including deaths from drowning and trauma, critical shortages of essential medications, critical healthcare system power shortages, and forced patient evacuations.{{< tbib '9' 'b5bf5f25-1fd9-43bd-8493-0ef2ee771f47' >}} Such events strain healthcare resources not only within regions of direct hurricane impact but also within the entire region due to displacement of patient populations.{{< tbib '8' 'f8225523-7ae9-4ab4-ac28-4cfafe1b508b' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/southern-great-plains/finding/key-message-23-4.yaml identifier: key-message-23-4 ordinal: 4 process: 'The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the states’ officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) were included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are each members of the American Association of State Climatologists, which is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state level.
One representative from each of several regional hubs of national and regional climate expertise was included on the author team. These regional hubs include the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (El Reno, Oklahoma), the U.S. Department of the Interior’s South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Norman, Oklahoma), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Norman, Oklahoma).
After assessing the areas of expertise of the six authors selected from the state and regional centers, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing. Due to the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an accomplished scholar with expertise in Indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate change was selected from the premier tribal university in the United States, Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. An individual from the Environmental Science Institute at the University of Texas at Austin was selected to bring expertise on the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere–land–ocean systems, climate, and humans (population and urbanization). Expertise in the electric utility industry was gained through the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives by an individual with a long history of working with rural and urban populations and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.
The author group decided to allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive additional priorities. On March 2, 2017, the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Southern Great Plains chapter team held a Regional Engagement Workshop at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, with a satellite location in Austin, Texas, that allowed a number of stakeholders to participate virtually. The objective of the workshop was to gather input from a diverse array of stakeholders throughout the Southern Great Plains to help inform the writing and development of the report and to raise awareness of the process and timeline for NCA4. Stakeholders from meteorology, climatology, tribes, agriculture, electric utilities, water resources, Bureau of Land Management, ecosystems, landscape cooperatives, and transportation from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were represented. The productive dialog at this workshop identified important gaps in environmental economics, ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas were selected: an ecosystems expert from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, an environmental economist from the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma, and health experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute.
This diverse collection of medical doctors, academics, researchers, scientists, and practitioners from both federal and state agencies gives the Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate change will affect people in the region.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Health threats, including heat illness and diseases transmitted through food, water, and insects, will increase as temperature rises (very likely, high confidence). Weather conditions supporting these health threats are projected to be of longer duration or occur at times of the year when these threats are not normally experienced (likely, medium confidence). Extreme weather events with resultant physical injury and population displacement are also a threat (likely, high confidence). These threats are likely to increase in frequency and distribution and are likely to create significant economic burdens (likely, high confidence). Vulnerability and adaptation assessments, comprehensive response plans, seasonal health forecasts, and early warning systems can be useful adaptation strategies.
' uncertainties: 'The ability to quantitatively predict specific health outcomes associated with projected changes in climate is limited by long-term public health data as well as meteorological data. While assessments consistently indicate that climate change will have direct and indirect impacts on human health (high confidence), quantifying specific health metrics, such as incidence and community level prevalence, remains difficult. The uncertainty develops when there are many connected actions that influence health outcomes. For example, the future impact of climate change on human health is likely to be reduced by adaptation measures that take place on local and national scales. Additionally, the role of non-climate factors, including land use, socioeconomics, and population characteristics (such as immigration), as well as health sector policies and practices, will affect local and regional health impacts. The magnitude of impact of these variables on health at local and regional scales is difficult to predict. The estimation of future economic impacts is limited by difficulties in estimating the true cost of healthcare delivery and additionally only partially captures the actual impacts on health and livelihood of individuals and communities. Thus, existing projections likely underestimate the entirety of the economic impact.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/southern-great-plains/finding/key-message-23-4 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: southern-great-plains confidence: 'There is high confidence that extreme events and long-term climate shifts will lead to changes in tribal and Indigenous communities in the Southern Great Plains. Environmental connections will be direct, but the degree of those connections is uncertain and shifts in climate system will impact each nation differently. How changes will be perceived and managed and what steps are taken to adapt are uncertain; thus, there is low confidence that adaptation will be a successful mechanism among all tribal and Indigenous peoples.
' evidence: "This Key Message was developed through dialog and discussions among Indigenous communities and within the social sciences discipline. While Indigenous communities vary in size from smaller nations to large well-formed governments, all are in need of communication about the realities of climate change.{{< tbib '14' 'bf19cfe7-2575-48e2-8d26-b0081117369a' >}} Climate change threatens the ability of tribes and Indigenous peoples to procure food, water, and shelter and to preserve ancient cultural activities.{{< tbib '179' '64063229-e3bd-4ab7-ba73-41909ca78211' >}},{{
The initial Southern Great Plains author team was selected such that expertise from each of the states’ officially recognized climate offices in the region (Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas) were included. The offices of the state climatologist in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are each members of the American Association of State Climatologists, which is the recognized professional scientific organization for climate expertise at the state level.
One representative from each of several regional hubs of national and regional climate expertise was included on the author team. These regional hubs include the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (El Reno, Oklahoma), the U.S. Department of the Interior’s South Central Climate Adaptation Science Center (Norman, Oklahoma), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (Norman, Oklahoma).
After assessing the areas of expertise of the six authors selected from the state and regional centers, a gap analysis was conducted to prioritize areas of expertise that were missing. Due to the importance of the sovereign tribal nations to the Southern Great Plains, an accomplished scholar with expertise in Indigenous knowledge on the environment and climate change was selected from the premier tribal university in the United States, Haskell Indian Nations University in Lawrence, Kansas. An individual from the Environmental Science Institute at the University of Texas at Austin was selected to bring expertise on the complex intersection of coupled atmosphere–land–ocean systems, climate, and humans (population and urbanization). Expertise in the electric utility industry was gained through the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives by an individual with a long history of working with rural and urban populations and with researchers and forecasters in weather and climate.
The author group decided to allow Southern Great Plains stakeholders to drive additional priorities. On March 2, 2017, the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) Southern Great Plains chapter team held a Regional Engagement Workshop at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, with a satellite location in Austin, Texas, that allowed a number of stakeholders to participate virtually. The objective of the workshop was to gather input from a diverse array of stakeholders throughout the Southern Great Plains to help inform the writing and development of the report and to raise awareness of the process and timeline for NCA4. Stakeholders from meteorology, climatology, tribes, agriculture, electric utilities, water resources, Bureau of Land Management, ecosystems, landscape cooperatives, and transportation from Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas were represented. The productive dialog at this workshop identified important gaps in environmental economics, ecosystems, and health. Scientists working at the cutting edge of research in these three areas were selected: an ecosystems expert from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, an environmental economist from the department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability at the University of Oklahoma, and health experts from the University of Colorado School of Medicine and the Aspen Global Change Institute.
This diverse collection of medical doctors, academics, researchers, scientists, and practitioners from both federal and state agencies gives the Southern Great Plains chapter a wealth of expertise across the many ways in which climate change will affect people in the region.
' report_identifier: nca4 statement: 'Tribal and Indigenous communities are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to water resource constraints, extreme weather events, higher temperature, and other likely public health issues (likely, high confidence). Efforts to build community resilience can be hindered by economic, political, and infrastructure limitations (likely, high confidence), but traditional knowledge and intertribal organizations provide opportunities to adapt to the potential challenges of climate change.
' uncertainties: "There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding how tribal communities will integrate climate change into their cultures, given the variable size of these communities and the challenges of connecting and communicating with clarity among them. It is likely that adaptation strategies will vary greatly as knowledge and communication might not be widely supported within all nations.{{< tbib '169' '60233f20-d45f-4086-ada7-00dbd47712c3' >}},{{
There is high confidence that climate change, through reductions in snowpack, increased temperatures, and more variable precipitation, is already affecting the Northwest’s diverse natural resource base. There is high confidence that these natural resource sectors provide critical economic benefits, particularly for rural, tribal, and Indigenous communities who are more dependent on economic activities associated with natural resource management. There is high confidence that climate change will have a large impact on the natural resource sector throughout this century; however, there is medium confidence that these impacts will negatively impact rural, tribal, and Indigenous livelihoods, particularly about how projected changes will economically impact specific natural resource sectors due to large uncertainties surrounding global market dynamics that are influenced by climatic and non-climatic factors. It is very likely that proactive management efforts will be required to reduce climate risks, yet there is medium confidence that these adaptation efforts will adequately reduce negative impacts and promote sector-specific economic benefits.
' evidence: "Multiple studies suggest that Northwest natural resource sectors will likely be directly affected by climate change, including increased temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and reduced snowpack (see NOAA State Climate Summaries for Oregon, Washington, and Idaho).{{< tbib '265' 'ba49da5a-489b-420e-b593-8d83e4fbf5a5' >}},{{
There is good evidence that natural resource managers are attempting to build more resilient production systems in the face of climate change through the adoption of adaptation practices (see Box 24.1), particularly those that build soil resources to increase resilience in the face of more extreme and variable weather; however, in some cases not all adaptation strategies will necessarily lead to broader soil benefits.{{< tbib '270' '2a6fd72f-138b-46d2-9f9e-26277d961c13' >}},{{
Yet, how individual actors respond to changes in climate is a source of uncertainty, particularly if these actions do not reduce climate risks or capitalize on potential benefits as expected.{{< tbib '64' 'daa849df-9a29-44ee-b59c-9b4b5fd53467' >}} Additionally, many adaptive actions, at least in the short term, will likely be costly for individual producers to implement.{{< tbib '37' '28a86b7f-c68a-4d17-bd11-083814d9ed27' >}},{{
This assessment focuses on different aspects of the interaction between humans, the natural environment, and climate change, including reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, the less tangible values of nature, the built environment, health, and frontline communities. Therefore, the author team required a depth and breadth of expertise that went beyond climate change science and included social science, economics, health, tribes and Indigenous people, frontline communities, and climate adaptation, as well as expertise in agriculture, forestry, hydrology, coastal and ocean dynamics, and ecology. Prospective authors were nominated by their respective agencies, universities, organizations, or peers. All prospective authors were interviewed with respect to the qualifications, and selected authors committed to remain part of the team for the duration of chapter development.
The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at workshops, weekly teleconferences, and email exchanges. The author team, along with the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also held stakeholder meetings in Portland and Boise to solicit input and receive feedback on the outline and draft content under consideration. A series of breakout groups during the stakeholder meetings provided invaluable feedback that is directly reflected in how the Key Messages were shaped with respect to Northwest values and the intersection between humans, the natural environment, and climate change. The authors also considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, interested stakeholders, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, see Appendix 1: Process. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with contributing authors for other chapters, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Accounts associated with each Key Message.
The climate change projections and scenarios used in this assessment have been widely examined and presented elsewhere{{< tbib '11' '07aed96a-e0e8-47dd-81d3-cdff5a6e261c' >}},{{
Climate change is already affecting the Northwest’s diverse natural resources (high confidence), which support sustainable livelihoods; provide a robust foundation for rural, tribal, and Indigenous communities; and strengthen local economies (high confidence). Climate change is expected to continue affecting the natural resource sector (likely, high confidence), but the economic consequences will depend on future market dynamics, management actions, and adaptation efforts (very likely, medium confidence). Proactive management can increase the resilience of many natural resources and their associated economies (very likely, medium confidence).
' uncertainties: "Climate impacts, such as increased temperatures, reduced snowpack, and more variable precipitation and subsequent impacts on pests, disease, fire incidence, and other secondary impacts will very likely indirectly affect livelihoods and the economic viability of natural resource sectors, with more severe impacts to rural, tribal, and Indigenous communities (Ch. 10: Ag & Rural). There is, however, greater uncertainty as to how precisely these impacts are projected to affect natural resource managers’ financial security and their subsequent land-use decisions (Ch. 5: Land Changes), as well as other factors important to sustainable livelihoods and community well-being.
This is particularly relevant for key commodities that are integrated with national and international markets that are influenced by multiple factors and are difficult to predict (Ch. 10: Ag & Rural; Ch. 16: International). National and global market dynamics will likely be influenced by broader climate change effects on other natural resource sectors in the United States and across the globe,{{< tbib '50' '0b30f1ab-e4c4-4837-aa8b-0e19faccdb94' >}} while also being impacted by a broad array of factors that include technological developments, laws, regulations and policies affecting trade and subsidies, and security issues. There are instances where the economic consequences will likely be positive, particularly in comparison to other regions in the United States, such as found in the dairy production sector.{{< tbib '65' '4c87b5a3-0303-4f92-ae7b-97d5e20b9579' >}} The economic impacts to regional fisheries are much less certain as iconic species and industries in the Northwest struggle to maintain viability.{{< tbib '51' 'bfd896fb-e6cf-45bb-90fc-46742079789c' >}},{{
There is high confidence that climate change and extreme events have already endangered the well-being of a wide range of wildlife, fish, and plants. There is very high confidence that these impacts will directly threaten tribal subsistence and culture and high confidence that these impacts will threaten popular recreation activities. Future climate change will very likely continue to have adverse impacts on the regional environment. There is high confidence that future climate change will have negative impacts on the values, identity, heritage, cultures, and quality of life of the diverse population of Northwest residents. There is medium confidence that adaptation and informed management, especially culturally appropriate strategies, will increase the resilience of the region’s natural capital.
' evidence: "Since the Third National Climate Assessment, there have been significant contributions within the literature in relation to climate impacts to Northwest communities, with specific focus on how values and activities, such as recreation, iconic wildlife, management, and tribal and Indigenous cultures, will likely be impacted.
Wildlife are projected to have diverse responses to climate change.{{< tbib '94' '28638cf2-7042-48cf-8a30-7f45b405aefb' >}},{{
Multiple studies also demonstrate that climate change impacts will likely affect other iconic, Northwest species. Wildfires will affect berries, roots, and plants;{{< tbib '85' '6848eec2-534b-4629-967c-53d8530089a3' >}},{{
Salmon is one of the most iconic Northwest species and important First Foods for Tribes. Salmon are at high risk to climate change because of decreasing summer flows due to changes in seasonal precipitation and reduced snowpack,{{< tbib '284' 'f8d978b8-85d3-47ea-9a90-543650d83156' >}},{{
There are multiple lines of evidence verifying that reduced snowfall and snowpack in the future will adversely impact winter and snow-based recreation, including a reduction in ski visitation rates.{{< tbib '19' 'b1729fa8-3fbf-4311-a2d0-e0b36ccb9fb6' >}},{{
Adaptation and management strategies in response to climate impacts on the natural capital and Northwest heritage are extremely varied across the region. Many tribes have begun managing First Foods and other important cultural resources through climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans that incorporate both traditional knowledge and western science.{{< tbib '85' '6848eec2-534b-4629-967c-53d8530089a3' >}},{{
This assessment focuses on different aspects of the interaction between humans, the natural environment, and climate change, including reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, the less tangible values of nature, the built environment, health, and frontline communities. Therefore, the author team required a depth and breadth of expertise that went beyond climate change science and included social science, economics, health, tribes and Indigenous people, frontline communities, and climate adaptation, as well as expertise in agriculture, forestry, hydrology, coastal and ocean dynamics, and ecology. Prospective authors were nominated by their respective agencies, universities, organizations, or peers. All prospective authors were interviewed with respect to the qualifications, and selected authors committed to remain part of the team for the duration of chapter development.
The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at workshops, weekly teleconferences, and email exchanges. The author team, along with the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also held stakeholder meetings in Portland and Boise to solicit input and receive feedback on the outline and draft content under consideration. A series of breakout groups during the stakeholder meetings provided invaluable feedback that is directly reflected in how the Key Messages were shaped with respect to Northwest values and the intersection between humans, the natural environment, and climate change. The authors also considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, interested stakeholders, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, see Appendix 1: Process. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with contributing authors for other chapters, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Accounts associated with each Key Message.
The climate change projections and scenarios used in this assessment have been widely examined and presented elsewhere{{< tbib '11' '07aed96a-e0e8-47dd-81d3-cdff5a6e261c' >}},{{
Climate change and extreme events are already endangering the well-being of a wide range of wildlife, fish, and plants (high confidence), which are intimately tied to tribal subsistence culture (very high confidence) and popular outdoor recreation activities (high confidence). Climate change is projected to continue to have adverse impacts on the regional environment (very likely), with implications for the values, identity, heritage, cultures, and quality of life of the region’s diverse population (high confidence). Adaptation and informed management, especially culturally appropriate strategies, will likely increase the resilience of the region’s natural capital (medium confidence).
' uncertainties: "There is strong evidence to suggest that recreational opportunities are an important quality of the Northwest,{{< tbib '87' '7a666151-302c-4d04-9658-b80816eeec98' >}} but there is uncertainty around the perceived importance of future recreation opportunities’ prioritization in people’s quality of life despite the direct reduction of many recreational opportunities.{{< tbib '127' '84baf9f1-d4b2-491f-8bde-d03168080fa5' >}}
The effects of climate change on game species are uncertain, with large potential forcing in both directions and a lack of information on which processes will dominate consequences for game species and how managers might be able to effectively adapt to changing climate.
" uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northwest/finding/key-message-24-2 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northwest confidence: "There is very high confidence in the link between extreme events and infrastructure impacts. Most of the existing vulnerability assessments in this region, as well as those at larger spatial scales, emphasize extreme events as a key driver of past impacts. Most infrastructure is planned and designed to withstand events of a specified frequency and magnitude (for example, the 100-year flood, design storms), underscoring the importance of extreme events to our assumptions about infrastructure reliability and function. There is high confidence that rising temperatures, increases in heavy rainfall, and hydrologic changes are projected for the region.{{< tbib '5' 'e450ba2c-db69-43c8-8af4-e0c8ce7c8f2f' >}},{{
Impacts discussed in this chapter (e.g., WSDOT 2014, ODOT and OHA 2016, Withycomb 2017, US Climate Resilience Toolkit 2017{{< tbib '129' 'ce288ad6-4610-400a-805b-fc5e59d20c32' >}},{{
There is a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate change will likely increase the frequency and/or intensity of extreme events such as flooding, landslides, drought, wildfire, and heat waves.{{< tbib '27' '2ca19a87-6e16-41d2-8767-19767e5a74d1' >}},{{
Infrastructure redundancy is widely accepted as a means to enhance system reliability. Multiple investigations cite the importance of system redundancy for transportation, energy, and water supply.{{< tbib '136' '3dd8a56b-03bf-40b4-8b09-6d202e75e901' >}},{{
This assessment focuses on different aspects of the interaction between humans, the natural environment, and climate change, including reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, the less tangible values of nature, the built environment, health, and frontline communities. Therefore, the author team required a depth and breadth of expertise that went beyond climate change science and included social science, economics, health, tribes and Indigenous people, frontline communities, and climate adaptation, as well as expertise in agriculture, forestry, hydrology, coastal and ocean dynamics, and ecology. Prospective authors were nominated by their respective agencies, universities, organizations, or peers. All prospective authors were interviewed with respect to the qualifications, and selected authors committed to remain part of the team for the duration of chapter development.
The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at workshops, weekly teleconferences, and email exchanges. The author team, along with the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also held stakeholder meetings in Portland and Boise to solicit input and receive feedback on the outline and draft content under consideration. A series of breakout groups during the stakeholder meetings provided invaluable feedback that is directly reflected in how the Key Messages were shaped with respect to Northwest values and the intersection between humans, the natural environment, and climate change. The authors also considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, interested stakeholders, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, see Appendix 1: Process. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with contributing authors for other chapters, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Accounts associated with each Key Message.
The climate change projections and scenarios used in this assessment have been widely examined and presented elsewhere{{< tbib '11' '07aed96a-e0e8-47dd-81d3-cdff5a6e261c' >}},{{
Existing water, transportation, and energy infrastructure already face challenges from flooding, landslides, drought, wildfire, and heat waves (very high confidence). Climate change is projected to increase the risks from many of these extreme events, potentially compromising the reliability of water supplies, hydropower, and transportation across the region (likely, high confidence). Isolated communities and those with systems that lack redundancy are the most vulnerable (likely, medium confidence). Adaptation strategies that address more than one sector, or are coupled with social and environmental co-benefits, can increase resilience (high confidence).
' uncertainties: 'Many analyses and anecdotal evidence link the risk of infrastructure disruption or failure to extreme events. However, the attribution of specific infrastructure impacts to climate variability or climate change remains a challenge. In many cases, infrastructure is subject to multiple climate and non-climate stressors. Non-climate stressors common to many parts of the region include increases in demand or usage from growing populations and changes in land use or development. In addition, much infrastructure across the region is beyond its useful lifetime or may not be in a state of good repair. These factors typically enhance sensitivity to many types of stressors but add uncertainty when trying to draw a direct connection between climate and infrastructure impacts.
Demographic shifts remain an important uncertainty when assessing future infrastructure impacts as well as the relative importance of certain types of infrastructure. Migration to and within the region can fluctuate on timescales shorter than those of climate change. As people move, the relative importance of different types of infrastructure are likely to change, as are the consequences of impacts.
Lastly, there is considerable uncertainty in quantitatively assessing the role of redundancy in minimizing or managing impacts. Metrics for determining the extent to which networking or emergency/backup systems yield adaptive capacity are not currently available at the regional scale.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northwest/finding/key-message-24-3 url: ~ - chapter_identifier: northwest confidence: 'There is high confidence that there will be increased hazards and epidemics, which will very likely disrupt local economies, food systems, and exacerbate chronic health risks, especially among populations most at risk. There is high confidence that these acute hazards will increase due to future climate conditions and will very likely increase the demand on organizations and volunteers that respond and form the region’s social safety net. There is medium confidence that mitigation investments can help counterbalance these risks and likely result in health co-benefits for the region.
' evidence: "Cascading hazards could occur in any season; however, the summer months pose the biggest health challenges. For example, wildfire could occur at the same time as extreme heat and could damage electrical distribution systems, thereby simultaneously exposing people to smoke and high temperatures without the ability to pump water, filter air, or control indoor temperatures. Although some work is being done to prepare, responses to emergency incidents continue to show that there are considerable gaps in our medical and public health systems.{{< tbib '315' '4774f70f-d9c5-43a7-9561-ef771165e5b9' >}} Public health departments are in place to track, monitor, predict, and develop response tactics to disease outbreaks or other health threats. In the case of cascading hazards, the public health system has a role in communicating risks to the public as well as strategies for self-care and sheltering-in-place during a crisis. Unfortunately, local health departments report inadequate capacity to respond to local climate change-related health threats, mainly due to budget constraints.{{< tbib '316' 'f82a2e76-95bb-4a33-8877-8c16ca217397' >}} Hospitals in the United States routinely operate at or above capacity. Large numbers of emergency rooms are crowded with admitted patients awaiting placement in inpatient beds, and hospitals are diverting more than half a million ambulances per year due to emergency room overcrowding.{{< tbib '317' '3c69fb3a-7bcd-4acb-93a2-5dbf687d8491' >}}
Existing environmental health risks are expected to be exacerbated by future climate conditions,{{< tbib '187' 'b1577125-f789-49e6-9656-c40ed932184a' >}} yet over 95% of local health departments in Oregon reported having only partial-to-minimal ability to identify and address environmental health hazards.{{< tbib '194' '796714bc-3fbc-471a-9c93-fbee657006a9' >}} The capacity of our public health systems is largely inadequate and unable to meet basic responsibilities to protect the health and safety of people in the Northwest.{{< tbib '162' 'f1ca2352-7158-4312-9c4b-3d1189c1ad10' >}},{{
Socioeconomic income levels can be a predictor of environmental health outcomes in the future.{{< tbib '187' 'b1577125-f789-49e6-9656-c40ed932184a' >}},{{
Climate mitigation strategies can in some cases have substantial health co-benefits, with evidence pointing toward active transportation{{< tbib '319' '50e17b29-8313-4a48-95e9-cdca2241f4ea' >}} and green infrastructure improvements.{{< tbib '320' 'd1845478-f491-4533-8ef3-bad72ef5282d' >}} This evidence of health co-benefits provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of strategies that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently.{{< tbib '321' '25181456-7f49-4348-8ce8-55e4def0e02b' >}} The Oregon Health Authority’s Climate Smart Strategy Health Impact Assessment found that almost all climate mitigation policies under consideration by the Metro Regional Government could improve health, and that certain policy combinations were more beneficial, namely those that reduced vehicle miles traveled.{{< tbib '322' '62f522a8-bb4a-44a3-89a4-2862e6cd2981' >}} For example, according to 2009 data available on the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network, a 10% reduction in PM2.5 could prevent more than 400 deaths per year in a highly populated county and about 1,500 deaths every year in the state of California alone. Working across sectors to incorporate a health promotion approach in the design and development of built environment components could mitigate climate change, promote adaptation, and improve public health.{{< tbib '323' 'd01a3234-774c-4ea8-bbc3-f7fd726699bb' >}}
" href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nca4/chapter/northwest/finding/key-message-24-4.yaml identifier: key-message-24-4 ordinal: 4 process: "This assessment focuses on different aspects of the interaction between humans, the natural environment, and climate change, including reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, the less tangible values of nature, the built environment, health, and frontline communities. Therefore, the author team required a depth and breadth of expertise that went beyond climate change science and included social science, economics, health, tribes and Indigenous people, frontline communities, and climate adaptation, as well as expertise in agriculture, forestry, hydrology, coastal and ocean dynamics, and ecology. Prospective authors were nominated by their respective agencies, universities, organizations, or peers. All prospective authors were interviewed with respect to the qualifications, and selected authors committed to remain part of the team for the duration of chapter development.
The chapter was developed through technical discussions of relevant evidence and expert deliberation by the report authors at workshops, weekly teleconferences, and email exchanges. The author team, along with the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), also held stakeholder meetings in Portland and Boise to solicit input and receive feedback on the outline and draft content under consideration. A series of breakout groups during the stakeholder meetings provided invaluable feedback that is directly reflected in how the Key Messages were shaped with respect to Northwest values and the intersection between humans, the natural environment, and climate change. The authors also considered inputs and comments submitted by the public, interested stakeholders, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, and federal agencies. For additional information on the overall report process, see Appendix 1: Process. The author team also engaged in targeted consultations during multiple exchanges with contributing authors for other chapters, who provided additional expertise on subsets of the Traceable Accounts associated with each Key Message.
The climate change projections and scenarios used in this assessment have been widely examined and presented elsewhere{{< tbib '11' '07aed96a-e0e8-47dd-81d3-cdff5a6e261c' >}},{{
Organizations and volunteers that make up the Northwest’s social safety net are already stretched thin with current demands (very likely, high confidence). Healthcare and social systems will likely be further challenged with the increasing frequency of acute events, or when cascading events occur (very likely, high confidence). In addition to an increased likelihood of hazards and epidemics, disruptions in local economies and food systems are projected to result in more chronic health risks (very likely, medium confidence). The potential health co-benefits of future climate mitigation investments could help to counterbalance these risks (likely, medium confidence).
' uncertainties: 'Preparing and responding to cascading hazards is complex and involves many organizations outside of the medical and public health systems. There is not a common set of metrics or standards for measuring surge capacity and emergency preparedness across the region.
There is uncertainty in whether domestic migration will place further stress on social safety net systems.
' uri: /report/nca4/chapter/northwest/finding/key-message-24-4 url: ~