--- - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Arizona. Observed data are for 1900–2014. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Arizona (orange line) have risen about 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during the 21st century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest years being about as warm as the hottest year in the historical record; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest years being about 13°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-08-12T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-and-projected-temperature-change.yaml identifier: az-observed-and-projected-temperature-change lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 1 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2100-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1900-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed and Projected Temperature Change uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-and-projected-temperature-change url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-07-14T09:05:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extremely-hot-days.yaml identifier: az-observed-number-of-extremely-hot-days lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 2a report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2014-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1930-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Number of Extremely Hot Days uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extremely-hot-days url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-13T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-maximum-summer-temperature.yaml identifier: az-observed-maximum-summer-temperature lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 2b-1 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2009-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1895-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Maximum Summer Temperature uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-maximum-summer-temperature url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-13T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-minimum-summer-temperature.yaml identifier: az-observed-minimum-summer-temperature lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 2b-2 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2009-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1895-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Minimum Summer Temperature uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-minimum-summer-temperature url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-13T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-annual-precipitation.yaml identifier: az-observed-annual-precipitation lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 2c report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2009-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1895-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Annual Precipitation uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-annual-precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: ~ chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-13T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extreme-precipitation-events.yaml identifier: az-observed-number-of-extreme-precipitation-events lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 2d report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2014-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1930-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Number of Extreme Precipitation Events uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extreme-precipitation-events url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 The observed number of extremely warm nights (annual number of days with minimum temperature above 80°F) for 1930–2014, averaged over 5-year periods; these values are averages from 27 long-term reporting stations. For the past 25 years, Arizona has experienced an above average number of extremely warm nights. The dark horizontal line represents the long-term average. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-07-14T09:05:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extremely-warm-nights.yaml identifier: az-observed-number-of-extremely-warm-nights lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 3 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2014-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1930-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Number of Extremely Warm Nights uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-extremely-warm-nights url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 The observed number of very cold nights (annual number of days with minimum temperature below 0°F) for 1930–2014, averaged over 5-year periods; these values are averages from 27 long-term reporting stations. Since the 1980s, Arizona has experienced a below average number of very cold nights, indicative of warming in the region. The dark horizontal line represents the long-term average. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-07-14T09:05:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-very-cold-nights.yaml identifier: az-observed-number-of-very-cold-nights lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 4 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2014-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1930-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Number of Very Cold Nights uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-number-of-very-cold-nights url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 The observed monsoon season precipitation (June–September) across Arizona for 1895–2014, averaged over 5-year periods; these values are averages from NCEI's version 2 climate division dataset. Precipitation during the monsoon season is highly variable from year-to-year. During the first part of the 21st century, precipitation was below normal, while the most recent 5-year period (2010–2014) experienced above average precipitation. The dark horizontal line on each graph is the long-term average of 5.3 inches. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-13T00:00:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-monsoon-season-precipitation.yaml identifier: az-observed-monsoon-season-precipitation lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 5 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2009-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1885-01-01T00:00:00 title: Observed Monsoon Season Precipitation uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-observed-monsoon-season-precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 Time series of the Palmer Drought Severity Index from the year 1000 to 2014. Values for 1895–2014 (red) are based on measured temperature and precipitation. Values prior to 1895 (blue) are estimated from indirect measures such as tree rings. The thick black line is a running 20-year average. In the modern era, the wet periods of the early 1900s and the 1980s to 1990s and the dry period of the 1950s are evident. The extended record indicates periodic occurrences of similar prolonged wet and dry periods. Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-04-08T01:56:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/arizona-palmer-drought-severity-index.yaml identifier: arizona-palmer-drought-severity-index lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 6 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2013-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1000-01-01T00:00:00 title: Arizona Palmer Drought Severity Index uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/arizona-palmer-drought-severity-index url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: |+2 Annual time series of the water level of Lake Mead at Hoover Dam. Water levels in Lake Mead have varied widely over the years. Low levels in the 1950s and 1960s were due to drought and the filling of Lake Powell, respectively. Recent years have seen the lowest recorded levels since Lake Mead levels dipped in the 1950s. The red-dashed line indicates the threshold (1,075 feet) below which a federal shortage will be declared, resulting in reduced water allocations for Nevada and Arizona. Source: USBR and NPS. chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2015-05-08T09:36:00 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-lake-mead-water-level-at-hoover-dam.yaml identifier: az-lake-mead-water-level-at-hoover-dam lat_max: 37.0037 lat_min: 31.3320 lon_max: -114.8164 lon_min: -109.0450 ordinal: 7 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: ~ time_end: 2010-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1940-01-01T00:00:00 title: Lake Mead Water Level at Hoover Dam uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-lake-mead-water-level-at-hoover-dam url: ~ usage_limits: Free to use with credit to the original figure source. - attributes: ~ caption: 'Projected change in spring precipitation (%) for the middle of the 21st century compared to the late 20th century under a higher emissions pathway. Hatching represents portions of the state where the majority of climate models indicate a statistically significant change. Southern Arizona is on the northern fringe of a large area of projected decreases over central America. Source: CICS-NC, NOAA NCEI, and NEMAC.' chapter_identifier: arizona create_dt: 2019-02-15T18:17:52 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-projected-change-in-spring-precipitation.yaml identifier: az-projected-change-in-spring-precipitation lat_max: ~ lat_min: ~ lon_max: ~ lon_min: ~ ordinal: 8 report_identifier: noaa-led-state-summaries-2017 source_citation: ~ submission_dt: 2019-06-10T17:40:01 time_end: 2070-12-31T00:00:00 time_start: 1971-01-01T00:00:00 title: Projected Change in Spring Precipitation uri: /report/noaa-led-state-summaries-2017/chapter/arizona/figure/az-projected-change-in-spring-precipitation url: ~ usage_limits: Figure may be copyright protected and permission may be required. 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