Figure 23.1

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
Kenneth E. Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter 23 of the NOAA-led State Summaries 2017 report.

Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for Minnesota. Observed data are for 1900–2014. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in Minnesota (orange line) have risen about 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during the 21st century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest years being about as warm as the hottest year in the historical record; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest years being about 11°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1900 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2100 (00:00 AM).

This figure was created on August 12, 2015.

The spatial range for this figure is 43.4993° to 49.3853° latitude, and -89.4918° to -97.2399° longitude.

Provenance

This figure was derived from dataset World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble using the activity mn_observed-nca3-cmip5-r1-process
This figure was derived from dataset nClimdDiv CONUS dataset (based on GHCN-D) using the activity mn_observed-noaa-ncdc-cag-us-temperature-nclimdiv-process