Figure 34.1

Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites - NC
Kenneth E. Kunkel

This figure appears in chapter 34 of the NOAA-led State Summaries 2017 report.

Observed and projected changes (compared to the 1901–1960 average) in near-surface air temperature for North Dakota. Observed data are for 1900–2014. Projected changes for 2006–2100 are from global climate models for two possible futures: one in which greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase (higher emissions) and another in which greenhouse gas emissions increase at a slower rate (lower emissions). Temperatures in North Dakota (orange line) have risen more than 2°F since the beginning of the 20th century. Shading indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of models. Observed temperatures are generally within the envelope of model simulations of the historical period (gray shading). Historically unprecedented warming is projected during the 21st century. Less warming is expected under a lower emissions future (the coldest years being about 2°F warmer than the long-term average; green shading) and more warming under a higher emissions future (the hottest years being about 11°F warmer than the hottest year in the historical record; red shading). Source: CICS-NC and NOAA NCEI.

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1900 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2100 (00:00 AM).

This figure was created on August 12, 2015.

The spatial range for this figure is 45.9350° to 49.0007° latitude, and -96.5548° to -104.0489° longitude.

Provenance

This figure was derived from dataset World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble using the activity nd_observed-nca3-cmip5-r1-process
This figure was derived from dataset nClimdDiv CONUS dataset (based on GHCN-D) using the activity nd-noaa-ncdc-cag-us-temperature-nclimdiv-process