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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> . @prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> . @prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> . @prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> . @prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> . <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon/finding/key-message-11-1> dcterms:identifier "key-message-11-1"; gcis:findingNumber "11.1"^^xsd:string; gcis:findingStatement "Factors that control terrestrial carbon storage are changing. Surface air temperature change is amplified in high-latitude regions, as seen in the Arctic where temperature rise is about 2.5 times faster than that for the whole Earth. Permafrost temperatures have been increasing over the last 40 years. Disturbance by fire (particularly fire frequency and extreme fire years) is higher now than in the middle of the last century (<em>very high confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon>; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>; ## Properties of the finding: gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Key Finding 1 is supported by observational evidence from ground-based and remote-sensing measurements. Documented changes in surface air temperatures (data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps) at a rate higher than the global average are consistent with model projections (Overland et al., 2014) and theory (Pithan and Mauritsen 2014). Permafrost temperatures documented in borehole networks (Biskaborn et al., 2015) are increasing, with the largest absolute temperature increases in cold permafrost regions (Noetzli et al., 2016; Romanovsky et al., 2016). Decadal trends (Flannigan et al., 2009; Kasischke and Turetsky 2006) and paleoecological reconstructions (Kelly et al., 2013) show that area burned, fire frequency, and extreme fire years are higher now than in the first half of the last century and likely will last even longer."^^xsd:string; gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is high confidence that drivers of carbon pool change are increasing in strength. In addition, there is very high confidence that surface air temperature change is amplified in high-latitude regions, as seen in the Arctic, where temperature rise is about 2.5 times faster than that for the entire planet. There is high confidence that permafrost temperatures have been rising and that fire disturbance is increasing, although the data records for the latter are shorter compared to temperature records."^^xsd:string; gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "Data are not collected uniformly across regions and often are limited by site access. High-latitude observation stations are limited as well. Boreholes often are not located at sites where abrupt permafrost change is evident (Biskaborn et al., 2015). Area burned and other metrics of fire severity can be quantified by remote sensing, but some metrics rely on more limited ground-truth information. Direct measurements of permafrost temperature and fire extend back only 50 to 60 years, but these factors can respond to drivers (e.g., past temperature fluctuations and fire cycles) over even longer time intervals."^^xsd:string; a gcis:Finding . ## This finding cites the following entities: <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon/finding/key-message-11-1> prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.