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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> . @prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> . @prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> . @prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> . @prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> . <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon/finding/key-message-11-3> dcterms:identifier "key-message-11-3"; gcis:findingNumber "11.3"^^xsd:string; gcis:findingStatement "Following the current trajectory of global and Arctic warming, 5% to 15% of the soil organic carbon stored in the northern circumpolar permafrost zone (mean 10% value equal to 146 to 160 Pg C) is considered vulnerable to release to the atmosphere by the year 2100. The potential carbon loss is likely to be up to an order of magnitude larger than the potential increase in carbon stored in plant biomass regionally under the same changing conditions (<em>high confidence, very likely</em>)."^^xsd:string; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon>; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>; ## Properties of the finding: gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Key Finding 3 is supported by observational and modeling evidence from a range of literature sources and synthesized by Schuur et al. (2015). Observational data include soil incubation studies (Schädel et al., 2014, 2016) and synthesis of field observations (Belshe et al., 2013). Modeling evidence includes Burke et al. (2012), Burke et al. (2013), Koven et al. (2011), MacDougall et al. (2012), Schaefer et al. (2011), Schaphoff et al. (2013), Schneider von Deimling et al. (2012), and Zhuang et al. (2006)."^^xsd:string; gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is high confidence that permafrost soil carbon stocks are vulnerable to loss with changing climate conditions. This is also true of changing plant biomass but with more uncertainty about the relative magnitude of change."^^xsd:string; gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "This estimate is based largely on estimates of top-down permafrost thaw as a result of a warming climate and does not include abrupt permafrost thaw processes that can expose permafrost soils to higher temperature more rapidly than predicted by top-down thaw alone. Increasing evidence suggests that abrupt thaw processes are likely to be widespread across Arctic and boreal regions (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Waterlogging (oxygen limitation) is common in surface and subsurface soils because of limited infiltration as a result of permafrost. Oxygen limitation slows the decomposition of organic matter, but both wetter or drier soil conditions can result from degrading permafrost at the site scale. Whether high-latitude terrestrial ecosystems will be wetter or drier in the future at the landscape scale is unclear."^^xsd:string; a gcis:Finding . ## This finding cites the following entities: <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/arctic-and-boreal-carbon/finding/key-message-11-3> prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.