finding 18.4 : key-message-18-4

Developing stronger linkages among research disciplines for Earth system processes, carbon management, and carbon prediction, with a focus on consistent and scalable datasets as model inputs, will improve joint representation of natural and managed systems needed for decision making (high confidence).

This finding is from chapter 18 of Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2): A Sustained Assessment Report.

Description of evidence base: Integration and coordination among global climate models, land models, and IAMs are occurring. National land management models and natural resource economic models also are becoming increasingly integrated. However, there remains a gap between global climate and IAMs and national land-use and economic models. The latter are used more often for decision making, but the former are critical in understanding global feedbacks among carbon, climate, economics, and land-use change. For Key Finding 4, increased communication and links between global drivers and subnational dynamics that impact carbon (Beach et al., 2015; de Vries et al., 2013; Kraucunas et al., 2014; Verburg et al., 2009) could help develop comprehensive science-based systems to better inform decision making. Efforts like this will depend on cross-sectoral and cross-scale research to better understand how to integrate or link needed components and scales.

New information and remaining uncertainties: Uncertainties exist in successful development of models across scales (e.g., local, regional, continental, and global).

Assessment of confidence based on evidence: A more complete picture of carbon dynamics across scales, using more realistic representation of actual stocks and emissions, will increase the accuracy of carbon models and their use by decision makers.

This finding was derived from figure P.2: P.2. Likelihood and Confidence Evaluation

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