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@prefix dcterms: <> .
@prefix xsd: <> .
@prefix gcis: <> .
@prefix cito: <> .
@prefix biro: <> .

   dcterms:identifier "key-message-3-3";
   gcis:findingNumber "3.3"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "The shifts in North American energy use and CO<sub>2</sub>e emissions have been driven by factors such as 1) lower energy use, initially as a response to the global financial crisis of 2007 to 2008 (<em>high confidence, very likely</em>); but increasingly due to 2) greater energy efficiency, which has reduced the regional energy intensity of economic production by about 1.5% annually from 2004 to 2013, enabling economic growth while lowering energy CO<sub>2</sub>e emissions. Energy intensity has fallen annually by 1.6% in the United States and 1.5% in Canada (<em>very high confidence, very likely</em>). Futher factors driving lower carbon intensities include 3) increased renewable energy production (up 220 petajoules [PJ] annually from 2004 to 2013, translating to an 11% annual average increase in renewables) (<em>high confidence, very likely</em>); 4) a shift to natural gas from coal sources for industrial and electricity production (<em>high confidence, likely</em>); and 5) a wide range of new technologies, including, for example, alternative fuel vehicles (<em>high confidence, likely</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Over the past decade, Key Finding 3 found that annual energy intensity dropped 1.5% in Canada, 0.04% in Mexico, and 1.6% in the United States. In the United States, gross domestic product (GDP) has grown by more than 10% from 2008 to 2015, while fossil fuel combustion CO<sub>2</sub> emissions declined 6% from 2008 to 2014. Canada’s GDP grew by 11% from 2008 to 2015, while its energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emissions grew roughly 2% from 2008 to 2014. In Mexico, GDP grew 15% between 2008 and 2015, and energy-related CO<sub>2</sub> emissions remained relatively flat, with a 0.3% decrease from 2008 to 2014 (IEA 2016a; IMF 2016).<br><br>\r\n\r\nEconomic structural changes have contributed to some of this decline, with more of North American manufacturing occurring overseas, especially in East Asian countries. From 2004 to 2014, the United States exhibited net offshoring every year except for 2011 (Kearney 2015). More recently, there were reports of reshoring to the United States, although there is uncertainty in whether this will exceed or even break even with continued offshoring (Sirkin et al., 2011; Tate 2014). Today, a trend of nearshoring is projected as manufacturing costs in China rise and companies move their operations to Mexico (Kitroeff 2016; Priddle and Snavely 2015).<br><br>\r\n\r\nNorth American renewable energy production has increased over the past 10 years. For electricity, nonhydropower renewables, including wind, solar, and biomass, have increased from 2.4% in 2004 to 6.1% in 2013. This translates into a 10.6% annual average increase, adding approximately 220 PJ of renewable energy into the North American electricity system annually (EIA 2016c).<br><br>\r\n\r\nA large portion of Canada’s 80% of nonfossil power generation comes from hydropower, while in the United States and Mexico nonfossil power contributes 32% and 22%, respectively, largely from nuclear. In total, carbon-free power sources contribute 38% of North American energy generation (EIA 2016c)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is very high confidence in the finding based on the results of official data."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "As with other contributing factors to energy and industrial emissions reductions, there is some uncertainty regarding the contribution of reduced energy intensity to emissions reductions. Kotchen and Mansur (2016) estimate reduced energy intensity contributed 6% of U.S. emissions reductions from 2007 to 2013.<br><br>The largest uncertainty surrounds the trajectory of carbon-free energy deployment in North America, which likely will depend heavily on policies that continue to incentivize lower-carbon forms of energy relative to fossil fuels. The declining cost of renewable and nonfossil technologies have made them cost-competitive with fossil fuels in some but not all regions of North America, and the future trajectories of technology cost reductions also are uncertain and dependent on public and private investment in research, development, and demonstration.<br><br>Although renewable energy deployment has been recognized as a contributing factor to GHG emissions reductions in North America, the precise scale of influence has been debated. The global financial crisis and natural gas deployment are likely to have had a larger effect than renewable energy in reducing North American energy emissions during 2007 to 2009 (Feng et al., 2015; Gold 2013; U.S. DOE 2015a), but, subsequently, changes in the energy system (including the increase in renewable energy and decrease in energy intensities) have helped to continue the trend."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:

   prov:wasDerivedFrom <>.