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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> . @prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> . @prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> . @prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> . @prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> . <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/energy-systems/finding/key-message-3-4> dcterms:identifier "key-message-3-4"; gcis:findingNumber "3.4"^^xsd:string; gcis:findingStatement "A wide range of plausible futures exists for the North American energy system in regard to carbon emissions. Forecasts to 2040, based on current policies and technologies, suggest a range of carbon emissions levels from an increase of over 10% to a decrease of over 14% (from 2015 carbon emissions levels). Exploratory and backcasting approaches suggest that the North American energy system emissions will not decrease by more than 13% (compared with 2015 levels) without both technological advances and changes in policy. For the United States, however, decreases in emissions could plausibly meet a national contribution to a global pathway consistent with a target of warming to 2°C at a cumulative cost of $1 trillion to $4 trillion (US$ 2005)."^^xsd:string; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/energy-systems>; gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report>; ## Properties of the finding: gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Key Finding 4 is based on results from three different types of energy scenarios, including five projections (United States from EIA, Canada from Environment and Climate Change Canada, Mexico from IEA, and private firms BP and ExxonMobil); exploratory scenarios from Royal Dutch Shell, the World Energy Council, and the Pew Center on Global Climate Change; and backcasting scenarios from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (for the United States, Canada, and Mexico), the Energy Modeling Forum (i.e., includes approximately nine different modeling groups), and the U.S. government. The statement on mitigation costs (“US$107 and $206 billion (US$ 2015) annually”) is from the findings of a report by U.S. EPA (2017b)."^^xsd:string; gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "With high confidence, the literature that forecasts carbon trajectories agrees generally with the outcome of the review provided."^^xsd:string; gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "There are significant incalculable uncertainties for futures studies. Therefore, no certainties, qualitative or quantitative, have been provided."^^xsd:string; a gcis:Finding . ## This finding cites the following entities: <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/energy-systems/finding/key-message-3-4> prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/second-state-carbon-cycle-report-soccr2-sustained-assessment-report/chapter/preface/figure/figurep-4>.